Fantasy Golf: AT&T Byron Nelson Preview

Well they up and changed course for this event again dagnabbit. This year we'll be watching the boys play at TPC Craig Ranch which is the centerpiece of the Craig Ranch Community. Yes that may sound like a cult but, judging from the rave reviews on the homeowner's association page, it is nothing like that. These are actual quotes from Craig Ranch homeowners about "Living the Dream" (without grammatical corrections) and really, nothing about them makes you think Stepford situation. I'll let you try to figure-out where the original quote stops and the FGR commentary begins. 

I have lived in Craig Ranch for a year now and so far I have really enjoyed it. I feel like I am far from the big city chaos however Im not far from getting the things I need. My neighbors are friendly and overall, my street is very quiet except for the screaming voices I've had in my head since the new homeowner welcome party. – Craig Ranch Homeowner

As a homeowner I feel like I am kept informed on neighborhood activities, changes in HOA and just "need to know" type stuff. I feel we have a strong HOA that gets things done and I feel confident I always have someone to go to should I have questions or concerns. One time I asked a member of the HOA a question about something that I did not "need to know." I used to have ten fingers and now I have nine but I don't have any more questions. So that's nice. – Craig Ranch Homeowner

There are so many good things yet to come to Craig Ranch and its happening now and very fast! I am very excited with all the new stuff and only look forward to many more new things coming our way. (Please get me out of here . . . I don't know how much longer I can keep them believing I drank the fruit punch at the new homeowner welcome party). - Craig Ranch Homeowner

The area is quiet (except for the screaming voices of course) and on my street I can say that I have a good group of neighbors. I encourage anyone who is looking for a home to visit Craig Ranch. I guarantee you will like what you see. Which is good because you can check-out any time you like, but you can never leave. - Craig Ranch Homeowner

TWEET OF THE WEEK

I have a similar recurring dream but in mine I'm a kangaroo that can't jump too good and all of the other kangaroos call me "shithead."

GOLF ANALYSIS FOR THE MAN ON THE GO

So we have no historical data which makes my job easy this week as I will be guessing along with the rest of you amateurs. Bryson DeChambeau crawled back from the Friday brink last week to finish T9th so I'm on a bit of a mini-roll if you don't count Patrick Reed's missed cut at the Valspar. Which I don't. Because he's a chump. 

Some may remember (but I doubt it) that I picked Scottie Scheffler to win the Valero Texas Open back in March. Well funny thing about that. I didn't actually enter him that week and, after he shot an opening round 68, I pitched a silent fit to myself as I was sure he was going to win without me. But good news, he finished T54th so I'm going to pick him again this week. At least that's the goal.

The rest of the picks are either Texans, guys who play well in Texas or K.H. Lee. Even with D.J. bailing this is a strong field at the top but then the quality falls straight off a cliff after Lee Westwood at $8,500. Where's Cameron Tringale when you need him?

One and Done Pick: Scottie Scheffler

"Ha ha great story dude. You
know I'm going to screw you
for real this time right?"

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jordan Spieth

Sleeper Pick: K.H. Lee

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Jordan Spieth	$10,700
Scottie Scheffler	$9,400
Marc Leishman	$9,200
Lee Westwood	$8,500
Aaron Wise	$8,300
Talor Gooch	$7,900
Doug Ghim	$7,500
Martin Laird	$7,200
Scott Piercy	$7,100
K.H. Lee	$6,900

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Fantasy Golf: The AT&T Byron Nelson Preview

Just when you thought the Fantasy Golf Report was only worth reading for the spiritual growth, along comes a week when we* pick the winner along with two of the three runner-ups and two other guys who finished in the top ten. And this without the benefit of our much loved historical performance chart. It's almost as if we tend to put too much weight on how players have performed at the same course in past years and don't rely enough on how they're playing now. 

Maybe this is a sign that we should change our approach. Focus more on the present than the past. Pay more attention to statistics like greens in regulation and strokes gained putting while not taking the lazy approach of putting a bunch of stock in how a guy played a certain golf course four years ago. This is going to take some work but it could be really good for us (insert thoughtful emoji) . . . nah . . . we'll just keep doing what we've been doing.    

TWEET OF THE WEEK

When I read this tweet I didn't know whether to feel comfort in the knowledge that others shared my latent fear of being walled-in and not having enough room to make a golf swing or utter terror that others share my latent fear of being walled-in and not having enough room to make a golf swing. 

So I have this recurring dream where I'm playing at a super sick course, but on the 1st tee I can't get the ball to stay on the tee. And when I do, I cold top one or don't have enough room to swing or do something else equally embarrassing.

Does this happen to anyone else?

— Zephyr Melton (@zephyrmelton) May 3, 2022

GOLF ANALYSIS

This week the Tour returns to TPC Craig Ranch which last year inspired what was probably a top five FGR post for 2021 (a low bar I know) as we speculated in jest that the reviews provided by some Craig Ranch homeowners may have indicated that they had been subjected to some light brainwashing. We actually went looking for more material to continue the gag this year but there is none. Like all of the reviews have been wiped clean from the internet. Weird.

Anyway, K.H. Lee won here last year but we don't expect the king of the middle of the pack finish to replicate anything close to that anomalous effort. However, Sam Burns finished second and history has shown that when Burnsy likes a course, he tends to have repeated success (see the Valspar Championship). 

And yes we're ignoring Scottie Scheffler AGAIN despite even our own better judgment but sooner or later this dude has got to chill and we are committed to being the one fantasy golf outlet that gets it right when that finally happens. And also yes we recognize that we are the weirdo at the roulette table of whom the pit bosses say, "I don't know man . . . he just sits there every night betting $10 on number 23 . . .over and over and over again."   

Moving right along. Even if Will Zalatoris' unsightly putting means he'll only win half the tournaments he should, he's still a top ten machine and fun to watch. He also finds himself in that undervalued category with the likes of Max Homa, Corey Conners and Talor Gooch, all of whom are FGR regulars who would be making us a ton of dough if only we wouldn't be so stubborn about picking the favorites (insert wide-eye emoji here).  

A few other notes this week:

• You have to factor Jhonattan Vegas into your plans. He's on one of his rolls and he finished tied 9th here last year (and we're back to our losing formula). 

• Matthew Wolff is showing signs that one can visit golf's quantum realm and make it back. This topic deserves way more than a bullet point but I'll just say that as someone who is also trying to rediscover the love of the game because it's supposed to be fucking fun, I hope he's rewarded with success. 

• Dick Vitale whining on Twitter about Notre Dame being left-out of the men's NCAA lacrosse tournament and basing his complaint on the fact that they beat Duke twice is the most Dick Vitale/Notre Dame/Duke thing ever and it brings us immense joy.  

One and Done Pick: Sam Burns

"Let the fools have their
Scottie Scheffler."

Other Guy I'd Pick: Talor Gooch

Sleeper Pick: Doc Redman

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Justin Thomas	$10,600
Sam Burns	$9,500
Will Zalatoris	$9,400
Talor Gooch	$8,600
Jhonattan Vegas	$8,400
Cameron Champ	$8,000
Brian Harman	$7,600
Kurt Kitayama	$7,400
Matthew Wolff	$7,200
Doc Redman	$6,800

Footnote

* You may have noticed that sometimes the FGR is written from the plural first-person as if I have a collaborator or a team working with me. Rest assured that this remains a one man wolfpack but sometimes the other voices in there get a bit more assertive about getting some credit for their input (insert crazy face emoji).    

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com. 

Fantasy Golf: CJ Cup Byron Nelson Preview

Four days and three nights in New Orleans left a bit of a mark that will be reflected in the scarcity of words used to preview this week's golf tournament. I will, however, have no scarcity of words about the weekend. 

Friday was one of those days that could only happen in the Big Easy. With some time to spare at Jazz Fest and, in search of some shade, we meandered into the Expedia Cultural Exchange Tent and discovered Los Cumbia Stars of whom I may now become a devoted follower if not a roadie. Just need someone to translate their website so I know where to find them. In all seriousness, they were somehow more fun than you would expect a nine piece Columbian band to be.

After watching The Revivalists and The Killers exceed all expectations and then checking into the Gospel Tent for a quick dose of salvation, we grabbed some dinner before diving into the vortex that is the French Quarter. Between the festival, the PGA Tour being in town and the Pelicans hosting a playoff game the following night, the joint was positively jumping. 

Having no logical starting point, we started at Boot Scootin Rodeo because we all know how much I love myself some country AND western music (eye roll emoji). Not to mention, Boot Scootin will always hold a special place in my heart as it's where I left my credit card around this time last year and, in what felt like a brief sign of hope for a dying civilization, they mailed it back to me. 

Speaking of dying civilizations, our next stop was a courtyard dance club where we got to see two stumbling young punks in matching University of Tennessee polos and hats collide with a guy trying to cut some rug with his lady. The guy and one of the kids went down in a heap at which point he quite justifiably unleashed a flurry of blows before security pulled him off. Not one to let a fellow dancing man stand falsely accused, I stepped-in, mounted an impromptu defense, got paid with a handshake and headed back out into the fray with a dangerous sense of pride and accomplishment.

We had a few more misadventures that included asking a stranger to get us one of the weird drinks he was ordering (which he did) before telling us he could hire us and we'd make $250K per month. Despite the obvious appeal of spending the rest of our lives in a state of terror a la Marty and Wendy Byrde, we turned it down. We then spent a few minutes living-out the Dexter Lake Club scene from Animal House at which point we decided it would be wise to call it a night.

You don't so much leave Bourbon Street as you gratefully escape it. We decided to walk a couple blocks off the main drag to find a good pickup spot and that's where we discovered a nice quiet saloon with a very friendly bartender. Never bothered to look at the sign on our way in which said "Rawhide Lounge" and not sure we would've gathered the implications of it anyway. It wasn't until the Uber was just about to arrive that we were like "wait a minute . . ." Not saying we won't be back. In fact, I'm pretty sure we will.   

TWEET OF THE WEEK

It's not gold Jerry . . . 

Imagine how embarrassing this take would be if the other creator of Seinfeld had made one of the funniest shows of all-time that had no worry about offending people and ended this literal month. https://t.co/FyCwZ5Eknj

— Kyle Ayers (@kyleayers) April 29, 2024

GOLF ANALYSIS

This tournament was always a crapshoot and then they went and moved it to a goofy TPC course in the middle of the planned community of Craig Ranch which I still think is a cult as described here three years ago. Since then, your winners have been Aaron Wise, Sung Kang, K.H. Lee (twice) and Jason Day. I am literally betting $5 this week because I have (a) no faith in these picks, and (b) no money left.

Si Woo Kim is 11 for 11 on cuts made this season and was runner-up to Day last year so he seems like a logical choice. I also have high hopes for Ben An, Stephan Jaeger and Seamus Power who finished T11, T14 and T19 respectively. Other than that, you're kind of on your own.     

One and Done Pick: Si Woo Kim

Don't you shush me!
I see you Si Woo.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Stephan Jaeger

Sleeper Pick: Matti Schmid

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Si Woo Kim	$9,800
Byeong Hun An	$9,300
Stephan Jaeger	$9,200
Adam Schenk	$8,500
K.H. Lee	$8,300
Mark Hubbard	$8,100
Seamus Power	$7,900
Sam Stevens	$7,500
Matti Schmid	$7,200
Ben Martin	$7,000

Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.

Fantasy Golf: The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Preview

It's been quite an educational seven days since we last wrote and, since this is a third rate tournament at best, we thought we'd use this space to pass along some of our newfound knowledge . . . usually and almost inevitably gained the hard way. 

• We learned that having a big Tuesday night just as Mother Nature is coating the landscape with a blizzard of pollen is a really bad and painful idea that carries lasting effects. This may actually warrant a calendar reminder for the second to last Tuesday of April for eternity.

• For extra credit, we then learned that playing basketball early on Saturday morning while hungover if not still a little drunk from the night before is way more enjoyable than playing in the sickened condition I was last weekend. Turns-out the inability to breath can really hinder point production.   

• We learned that finally docking the pay of an employee who habitually leaves work early creates a "hostile working environment" and actually constitutes a violation of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act. As part of this process, we also learned that there is a degree one can earn online called a Master of Legal Studies which apparently teaches you just enough about the law to sound like a fucking idiot.

• We learned that the amorphous zero tolerance policy the Baltimore Ravens adopted after the Ray Rice debacle not only has potential exceptions for Hall of Fame kickers, but also for edge rushers who are explosive with a full-tilt motor. Looks like it's got more cracks in it than my Tuesday drinking policy.

What we have not learned is where the youngest and most headstrong of my children will be attending college in the fall. It's been down to three choices for the better part of four months with no sign of white smoke emanating from the chimney. However, today is the deadline so at least we're about to move from "I Don't Know What to Do" mode into "Buyer's Remorse" mode. Not sure which is better but I welcome the change.    

GOLF ANALYSIS

As a public service announcement, I would say that wagering on a golf tournament that K.H. Lee recently won in back to back years may be an early warning sign. You're still ok but, if you find yourself betting on a LIV event in the next few weeks, it's definitely time to step back, reevaluate and make a phone call.

With that being said, this tournament has started to develop some reliable trends since moving to the Craig Ranch Community which I may have suggested is actually a cult back in 2021. Jordan Spieth has played there four of the last five years and has posted a runner-up and a T9. Factor in the weak field and his recent run of three top 20 finishes including a T14 at Augusta and I think this is the place to use him. 

We leaned heavily on past performance for the rest of the picks as we often do but especially when a seemingly tricked-up course built on a cult compound is involved.    

Place	Player	Odds
Winner	Jordan Spieth	+1800
Top 5	Byeong Hun An	+450
Top 10	Stephan Jaeger	+350
Top 10	Jake Knapp	+400
Top 20	Davis Riley	+275

One and Done Pick: Jordan Spieth

I am fully expecting a weekend
riddled with angst and birdies.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Byeong Hun An

Sleeper Pick: Max McGreevy

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Jordan Spieth	$10,500
Byeong Hun An	$9,700
Si Woo Kim	$9,400
Stephan Jaeger	$9,300
Jake Knapp	$8,400
Alex Smalley	$7,900
Joel Dahmen	$7,300
Davis Riley	$7,200
Justin Lower	$7,100
Max McGreevy	$6,900

Email the Fantasy Golf Report here. 

This week's chart is devoted to the Cleveland Browns who simply can't help themselves. After DeShaun Watson had surgery to pretty much rule him out for 2025, the team traded for Kenny Pickett who stinks and signed Joe Flacco who is 40 years old. They then drafted future career backup Dillon Gabriel in the third round and future locker room nightmare Shadeur Sanders in the fifth. They are the AFC North gift that keeps on giving.  

                                      THE CLEVELAND BROWNS JUST 

                                   GONNA BE CLEVELAND BROWNING

                                   HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART 

Others who are worth a look this week include last week's winner Ben Griffin, Seamus Power and even Patton Kizzire who in his last ten starts has eight missed cuts, a W/D and a T65 but that just means he needs to make some bourbon money. I don't know that he actually drinks bourbon but his name is Patton Kizzire and he played golf at Auburn so I'm going to play the percentages. 

	DK Price	2024	2023	2022	2021	2019
Scottie Scheffler	$13,300	DNP	T5	T15	T47	T35
Jordan Spieth	$10,500	MC	DNP	2nd	T9	T29
Sungjae Im	$10,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	83rd
Sam Burns	$9,800	DNP	DNP	MC	2nd	T72
Byeong Hun An	$9,700	T4	T14	DNP	DNP	DNP
Taylor Pendrith	$9,600	1st	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Si Woo Kim	$9,400	T13	T2	MC	T55	DNP
Stephan Jaeger	$9,300	T20	T11	T38	DNP	T17
Ben Griffin	$9,200	T13	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mackenzie Hughes	$9,100	T41	T14	MC	DNP	MC
Rasmuss Hojgaard	$8,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Will Zalatoris	$8,800	DNP	DNP	MC	T17	DNP
Tom Kim	$8,700	T52	T34	T17	DNP	DNP
Ryan Gerard	$8,600	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jacob Bridgeman	$8,500	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jake Knapp	$8,400	8th	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ryo Hisatune	$8,300	T13	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Eric Cole	$8,100	DNP	T23	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harry Hall	$8,000	MC	T83	DNP	DNP	DNP
Seamus Power	$8,000	MC	T19	T17	T9	T79
Alex Smalley	$7,900	T13	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Wallace	$7,900	T4	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Kevin Yu	$7,800	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Thorbjorn Olesen	$7,800	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Austin Eckroat	$7,700	DNP	T2	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rico Hoey	$7,700	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kurt Kitayama	$7,600	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Samuel Stevens	$7,600	T62	T34	DNP	DNP	DNP
Lee Hodges	$7,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Taylor Moore	$7,500	DNP	DNP	T32	DNP	DNP
Gary Woodland	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Doug Ghim	$7,300	MC	T19	DNP	MC	T12
Joel Dahmen	$7,300	T62	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Kuchar	$7,300	MC	T43	T12	T17	DNP
Davis Riley	$7,200	T30	MC	T9	DNP	T29
Nico Echavarria	$7,200	T24	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Lower	$7,100	T24	T43	T46	DNP	DNP
Zach Johnson	$7,000	T20	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max McGreevy	$6,900	T30	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Carson Young	$6,700	T30	T14	DNP	DNP	DNP
Dylan Wu	$6,700	T30	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Adam Schenk	$6,600	T13	MC	T79	T34	MC
Ben Kohles	$6,600	2nd	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Patton Kizzire	$6,400	T24	T30	T83	T3	DNP
Ryan Palmer	$6,000	MC	T8	T5	T47	T43