Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Fantasy Golf: The AT&T Byron Nelson Preview

Just when you thought the Fantasy Golf Report was only worth reading for the spiritual growth, along comes a week when we* pick the winner along with two of the three runner-ups and two other guys who finished in the top ten. And this without the benefit of our much loved historical performance chart. It's almost as if we tend to put too much weight on how players have performed at the same course in past years and don't rely enough on how they're playing now. 

Maybe this is a sign that we should change our approach. Focus more on the present than the past. Pay more attention to statistics like greens in regulation and strokes gained putting while not taking the lazy approach of putting a bunch of stock in how a guy played a certain golf course four years ago. This is going to take some work but it could be really good for us (insert thoughtful emoji) . . . nah . . . we'll just keep doing what we've been doing.    


When I read this tweet I didn't know whether to feel comfort in the knowledge that others shared my latent fear of being walled-in and not having enough room to make a golf swing or utter terror that others share my latent fear of being walled-in and not having enough room to make a golf swing. 


This week the Tour returns to TPC Craig Ranch which last year inspired what was probably a top five FGR post for 2021 (a low bar I know) as we speculated in jest that the reviews provided by some Craig Ranch homeowners may have indicated that they had been subjected to some light brainwashing. We actually went looking for more material to continue the gag this year but there is none. Like all of the reviews have been wiped clean from the internet. Weird.

Anyway, K.H. Lee won here last year but we don't expect the king of the middle of the pack finish to replicate anything close to that anomalous effort. However, Sam Burns finished second and history has shown that when Burnsy likes a course, he tends to have repeated success (see the Valspar Championship). 

And yes we're ignoring Scottie Scheffler AGAIN despite even our own better judgment but sooner or later this dude has got to chill and we are committed to being the one fantasy golf outlet that gets it right when that finally happens. And also yes we recognize that we are the weirdo at the roulette table of whom the pit bosses say, "I don't know man . . . he just sits there every night betting $10 on number 23 . . .over and over and over again."   

Moving right along. Even if Will Zalatoris' unsightly putting means he'll only win half the tournaments he should, he's still a top ten machine and fun to watch. He also finds himself in that undervalued category with the likes of Max Homa, Corey Conners and Talor Gooch, all of whom are FGR regulars who would be making us a ton of dough if only we wouldn't be so stubborn about picking the favorites (insert wide-eye emoji here).  

A few other notes this week:
  • You have to factor Jhonattan Vegas into your plans. He's on one of his rolls and he finished tied 9th here last year (and we're back to our losing formula). 
  • Matthew Wolff is showing signs that one can visit golf's quantum realm and make it back. This topic deserves way more than a bullet point but I'll just say that as someone who is also trying to rediscover the love of the game because it's supposed to be fucking fun, I hope he's rewarded with success. 
  • Dick Vitale whining on Twitter about Notre Dame being left-out of the men's NCAA lacrosse tournament and basing his complaint on the fact that they beat Duke twice is the most Dick Vitale/Notre Dame/Duke thing ever and it brings us immense joy.  

One and Done Pick: Sam Burns
"Let the fools have their
Scottie Scheffler."

Other Guy I'd Pick: Talor Gooch

Sleeper Pick: Doc Redman

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Justin Thomas


Sam Burns


Will Zalatoris


Talor Gooch


Jhonattan Vegas


Cameron Champ


Brian Harman


Kurt Kitayama


Matthew Wolff


Doc Redman



* You may have noticed that sometimes the FGR is written from the plural first-person as if I have a collaborator or a team working with me. Rest assured that this remains a one man wolfpack but sometimes the other voices in there get a bit more assertive about getting some credit for their input (insert crazy face emoji).    

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