Fantasy Golf: The CIMB Classic Preview

I more or less took last week off but, if you care enough to visit the website and you checked-out the sidebar, you'd know that the picks were shockingly strong and included the winner (though that was only like a 3 to 1 shot). We've got a randomly good October tournament this week but, instead of previewing it, I've decided to write about why I didn't write last week. Trust me. It will all make sense at some point this week. In the meantime, enjoy this gambling advice from the red hot FGR along with a subtle message to a couple of raging assholes.  

The One and Done Pick: Justin Thomas

Fuck you Cam and Harvey!!!

The DraftKings Top Ten Values
               

Justin Thomas	$12,300
Paul Casey	$10,500
Gary Woodland	$8,700
Kevin Na	$8,200
Bud Cauley	$7,600
Chez Reavie	$7,600
Rafa Cabrera-Bello	$7,400
James Hahn	$7,400
Adam Hadwin	$7,400
Keegan Bradley	$7,000

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com 

     

Shark Sandwich: A Presidents Cup Memory

It's Presidents Cup week a/k/a golf's answer to every international sporting competition that includes gymnastics, synchronized swimming and ping-pong but is not the Olympics. In other words, it's about as meaningful as a week 15 Thursday night game between the Browns and the Jets but it does feature seven of the best eleven players in the world so will I be watching? Of course I will. (At least a little bit but it's member-member weekend for this guy so I'll also be busy grinding over par putts and making new friends at the club with my cheery match play disposition). 

Instead of previewing this year's Presidents Cup, I'm rehashing this 2011 post which followed an American win over Greg Norman's squad on his home turf at Royal Melbourne Golf Club. In an event that has been totally dominated by the Americans who are 9-1-1, this one was memorable because the international team and Norman came-in with particularly high expectations and then handled the subsequent loss like a bunch of petulant ten year old soccer players led by a coach who spent an hour screaming at the ref and then used his post-game speech to tell the kids how much they let him down. And with that, I will now turn it over to the FGR circa 2011.    
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Who knew someone could exceed the European Ryder Cup team at making excuses? Apparently the U.S. team's win this weekend had less to do with the fact that they outplayed their international opponents and more to do with the match format and the team selection process. At least that's how Greg Norman, the most bitter man ever to get rich playing golf, saw it. The world's most annoying wine maker kicked-off the rationalizing with "it's very difficult for us to prepare for an alternate shot format, because we don't do it." 

Before I take questions, I would
like to state for the record that
this was obviously not my fault.

That statement is actually more ridiculous than it sounds (which is saying something) because, not only does it imply that the international players couldn't get together and play a few rounds of alternate shot before the event, it also presumes that the Americans have some distinct advantage because eight of their twelve players played alternate shot over a year ago in Wales. Despite their similar lack of experience, the Americans somehow have the ability to stand over a tricky 5 foot par putt that their partner created for them and drain it. It's called "grinding it out" Greg and, if you need it explained in simpler terms, it's the opposite of hitting your tee shot into the middle of the pond on 16 at Augusta after blowing a six shot lead to hand Nick Faldo the green jacket.

Norman's quote standing alone would have been pathetic enough but then Ernie Els (who had just gone 1-4 in his five matches while completing the fifth year of his three year plan to be number one in the world) felt obliged to chime in with "why don't we start with something different, you know. Let's start with four-ball matches (alternate shot), maybe that's the answer." Hey Ernie, before you float that suggestion, make sure they didn't use that format when the international team lost in '94 and '96 because that would make you sound a bit foolish, especially considering you were on the '96 team.

Turns out Norman was just getting warmed-up. "I had three other guys that could easily have been on my team, but I couldn't put on my team." I suppose Norman has a point there considering that he is locked into ten players and only gets two captain's picks. Unfortunately, his argument is just slightly undercut by the fact that his two captain's picks were Aaron Baddeley and Robert Allenby who combined to go 1-7-1 and effectively cost them the cup. I guess he wanted two more captain's picks to compensate for the lousy play of the two players he chose with the picks he had? I wish he did have two more picks so he could have put himself on the team as a playing captain. That way he could have thrown his players under the bus as their captain, and then backed over them as their teammate.

The crazy part is that Norman has
always taken losing so gracefully.

Before we get away from Sharkfoldo's captain's picks, can we take a moment to dispel the notion that a player should be on the team because he has local knowledge of the course which is presumably why Norman picked Allenby (one of the worst putters in professional golf) over Vijay Singh. Local knowledge cuts both ways. It's great when you're hitting it well but it's not so great when you're struggling because you find yourself thinking, "I know if I hit it there, I'm dead because I've hit it there before." Sometimes ignorance is bliss.

Give credit to Johnny Miller for finally shutting down this theory on the last day when he dismissed the umpteenth reference to Allenby's knowledge of the course by saying, "local knowledge only matters if you can execute the shots." That was right about the time David Toms was closing out Allenby 7&5 to slam home the point. (For you non-golfers, 7&5 is roughly equivalent to a 28-3 NFL game). On the first hole of that match, Allenby left a three foot par putt short and Toms rolled his in from about the same distance and I thought, "it's over." Embellishing the immortal words of coach Bobby Finstock, "there are four rules that I live by: (1) never get less than twelve hours sleep, (2) never play cards with a guy who has the first name as a city, (3) never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body, and (4) never pick a bad putter for a Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup team."                         

It was fitting that the U.S. team was captained by Fred Couples a/k/a the Anti-Norman. His response to Norman's whining was vintage "aw shucks, I'm going to act like I don't care as I crush you with a grin." Couples' indirect response to Norman's woe fest went this way: "We won this week because we were better players and I think we had a little motivation and we teamed well and we won. I don't know what they would have said if they would have won. Everything would have been fair." BAM! Spoken like a man who never needed to wear a cheesy hat or have a nickname to be one of the most popular players of all time. Never have the traits of "cool" and "uncool" been on fuller display.    

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Fantasy Golf: The Tour Championship Preview

As we wind-down another stellar season of fantasy golf prognostication, let's review some of our highlight picks from 2017 that have left us with no chance of winning despite the fact that we have Justin Thomas on deck this weekend. 2017 was really an all-out pursuit of mediocrity as I was consistently able to identify the select weeks when the best players in the world didn't feel like bringing their "A" games and in some cases even their "D" games to the table. A quick rundown of the top ten in the world and the tournaments where I decided to waste them should provide a fairly clear post mortem.

1. Dustin Johnson - The Memorial: DJ had already won three times this year and was coming-off another three solid finishes as he prepared to play a tournament where he'd had a fair amount of past success including a 3rd place finish in 2016. So what does the best player in the world do? He shoots 78-74 and never even makes eye contact with the cut line. 

2. Jordan Spieth - The Masters: After a rocky start on Thursday, Spieth righted the ship and, by the end of the third round, he was tied for 4th and only two shots out of the lead. Then he started drifting backwards on the Sunday front nine before stomping on the gas with what is now becoming his trademark bogey+ on the twelfth hole. He ended-up finishing T11th in a year when he's made the top ten half the time.     

. . . I am an idiot.

3. Hideki Matsuyama - None: So not only did I fail to use Hideki at the Waste Management Phoenix Open where, even when he doesn't win as he did again this year, he is virtually a mortal lock to finish top five. Apparently I failed to use him at all as revealed by a quick perusal of this year's picks. This makes me feel even better about mocking a reader last week for leaving himself with DJ, Rahm and Rickie and only two tournaments left to play. The lesson as always . . . 

4. Justin Thomas - Tour Championship: I was this close (holding thumb and forefinger barely apart) to using him at the PGA Championship as we has the last "A" list player I had available. Instead I went with Thomas Pieters which didn't work-out too badly unless you consider that the guy I picked missed the cut while the guy I almost picked won the tournament. Suffice it to say that turned into one of those late Sunday afternoons where I was even more grumpy than normal . . . which is a high bar to clear.  

5. Jon Rahm - Dell Matchplay: This one I actually got right because Rahm finished runner-up to DJ. Of course it was a case of dumb-ass luck as I changed my pick four times and had meant to change it from Rahm to some other schlub who lost in the first round but I forgot to do it. Even the losers get lucky sometimes.  

6. Jason Day - U.S. Open: If the writing for this season wasn't clearly on the wall before the U.S. Open, then Day missing the cut by nine shots pretty much spray painted "YOU'RE SCREWED!" all over it. If only I had had Hideki Matsuyama available at that point . . .

7. Rickie Fowler - The Honda Classic: This would've been the one week you wanted to pay attention to the FGR because the blind squirrel stumbled into the Blue Diamond packing plant and Fowler actually won the tournament.

"I don't see an intelligent, confident
fantasy golf writer. I see a cocky,
scared shitless jackass."

8. Rory McIlroy - The Players: He finished T35th at Sawgrass but the bottom line is that no one got that tournament right (Si Woo Kim and Ian Poulter?) and Rory was so spotty this year that he was like trying to hit a moving target with a defective slingshot. Dr. Sean has assured me that this one was not my fault.

9. Henrik Stenson - Arnold Palmer Invitational: From 2013-16, Stenson's finishes at the Palmer were T8th, T5th, 2nd and T3rd. In 2017, he missed the cut. Seriously, fuck this racket.

10. Sergio Garcia - Genesis Open: Sergio only had one top ten in 2017 and that was his Masters win so there weren't a lot of great places to use him but I of course nailed the week when he finished T49th for his second worst showing of the season. The other lesson as always, Sergio is a dick. (Just kidding as we have all forgiven Sergio's past transgressions and love him now . . . or something).         

So with that track record in mind, below are my value picks for what is mercifully the last tournament of the year. I've delayed this post in an effort to limit its exposure to people who might be foolish enough to allow this information to influence them as they wager their kids' lunch money. In the end, all I can say about 2017 is that I scratched, clawed, researched, pondered, guessed, hunched(?) and generally tried my damndest but sometimes the ball hits the lip and goes in and sometimes it ends-up further away than when you started. This year was a case of the latter. To paraphrase the immortal words of Coach Norman Dale, "I was hired to make fantasy golf picks and I did that to the best of my ability . . . I apologize for nothing."    

The One and Done Pick: Justin Thomas

Speaking of research, a really
fun Google search is "Hottest
Woman on the Planet." 

The DraftKings Top Ten Values

Dustin Johnson	$11,400
Justin Thomas	$9,900
Justin Rose	$8,900
Paul Casey	$8,600
Brooks Koepka	$8,100
Matt Kuchar	$7,700
Kevin Chappell	$7,600
Tony Finau	$7,100
Jason Dufner	$6,500
Gary Woodland	$6,400

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.  

Fantasy Golf: The BMW Championship Preview

We had a great moment in dumbass FGR history this past weekend when I had the opportunity to meet a current tour player of whom I am a moderate fan meaning I root for him as much as any current athlete (which ain't much) but he doesn't approach the past admiration I had for guys like George Gervin, Roger Staubach and John McEnroe (who taught me everything I know about competitive decorum). The player in question won in 2016 before taking a bit of a step back this season. He did not qualify for the FedEx Cup playoffs and has therefore been off since the Wyndham Championship. So how did I choose to structure my brief interaction with him? Like this.

Me: So do you have any plans for the offseason . . . playing any fun events?

Player: (Awkward pause) ... I'm taking a golf trip with some buddies. That should be fun.

Me: Where you headed? 

Player: (Is this loser going to show-up there?) . . . A course in New Jersey.

Me: (Why didn't he tell me which course?) . . . Cool.

Now to the non golf enthusiast, this exchange would seem relatively benign but allow me to shred myself as I would if I had just overheard this instead of being the reason it happened. First, there really isn't an offseason in golf as the tournaments now go deep into November. You'd think the writer of something called the Fantasy Golf Report might know that. Second, they don't really play "fun" events like the Skins Game and the Shark Shootout anymore and, if they did, a guy who didn't make the playoffs probably wouldn't be invited. On those points alone, I was a total and complete rube.

"So do you like um hit
a 7-iron sometimes?"

The true essence of my idiocy can, however, be found in the fact that I asked a player who missed the playoffs how he's going to spend his downtime. You know, while he's not eligible to compete and make money at his job as he ponders the handful of shots this year that may have cost him a spot in the top 125. Chris Farley was more cerebral composed interviewing Jeff Daniels for chrissakes. Oh and to top it all off, I was wearing a goofy tie with golf balls on it. The only things missing were spikeless golf shoes and the theme song from Curb Your Enthusiasm. 

I'm surprised he didn't ask me if I had gotten separated from my parents or whomever else was supposed to be looking after me. The lesson as always, I'm an idiot and, on that note, allow me to recommend some players for you to bet money on this week.        

The BMW Championship returns to Conway Farms after a year off and the last time they played it there Jason Day won with Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama and Henrik Stenson finishing in the top 10. Prior to that, Conway Farms hosted in 2013 with Zach Johnson winning, Day finishing T4th and a host of other quality players finding the top ten so the course is legit and should reward talent, something we have in abundance right now.

I fully expect Jordan Spieth to be at or near the top of the leaderboard along with D.J. and J.T. and the clown from IT (and I don't mean the guy in my office who programs the server . . . whatever that means). Then there are at least forty other players who could finish top ten without drawing any special attention. On the list of odds, I figure you've got to go all the way down to Chez Reavie at 150 to 1 before you get really skeptical. (I'd have a lot more respect for his game if his parents could have decided between "Chaz" and "Dez" instead of splitting the difference when they absolutely should have named him "Stevie"). 

I'm banking on Spieth finally closing the deal this week and a brief Jason day resurgence based on course history. Paul Casey is a top ten lock these days and the next seven on the list are value plays because value is universally loved by all like homemade chocolate chip cookies and Ted Cruz liking a porn video on Twitter. There really isn't another side to those debates and, if you tell me there is, then you can just go straight to hell. With Ted.

Who would've guessed that Ted Cruz
would be the best thing that happened
to Cory Chase's acting career?

One and Done Pick: Louis Oosthuizen*

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Jordan Spieth	$11,800
Jason Day	$9,600
Paul Casey	$9,200
Henrik Stenson	$8,900
Matt Kuchar	$8,200
Marc Leishman	$7,700
Daniel Berger	$7,500
Kevin Kisner	$7,200
Brian Harman	$7,000
Xander Schauffele	$6,900

Footnote

* Suffice it to say that I'm flailing as I've run out of viable one and done options.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.