Fantasy Golf: The Tour Championship Preview

I think we have to devote this week's preamble to at least some commentary on the new FedEx Cup format for the Tour Championship. First, let's start with a bit of history and follow the ridiculous path that has landed us where we are today. 

Way back in 2005 the PGA Tour decided to team-up with FedEx to develop a playoff system that would maintain fan interest beyond the PGA Championship in August as golf wandered onto football's September turf like a guy in a Saab convertible on West Lanvale Street asking for directions to the Walters Art Gallery while wearing an ascot. Its inaugural year was 2007 when Tiger Woods came into the playoffs with the lead, finished runner-up in the Deutsche Bank Championship and then won the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship to roll away with the $10M. The best player won and we all watched because hey, it was Tiger. 

The next year they decided to award a bunch more points for the playoff tournaments to make it feel more like, you know, the playoffs. Unfortunately, no one beta tested the new system for the obvious potential scenario where a guy enters the final event with a big enough point lead so he can't be caught and that's exactly what happened. Vijay Singh didn't even have to play the Tour Championship to win the FedEx Cup despite the fact that Camilo Villegas won at East Lake AND won the BMW Championship AND finished T3 at the Deutsche Bank Championship. I distinctly remember having the same reaction to that outcome that Chazz Rheinhold had when he learned that Jeremy Grey was getting married.  



So later in 2008 they tweaked the points again and I guess everyone was ok with that until last year when Justin Rose won the FedEx Cup without winning the Tour Championship after Justin Thomas did the same thing the year before. So it was back to the drawing board and, after years of apparently fumbling with an abacus to not come-up with the consistent outcome they wanted, the people who run this thing finally just said "fuck it . . . if you win the Tour Championship, you win the FedEx Cup." But that raised another problem which was how you continued to make the first two playoff events relevant if only the final one mattered. And to solve that issue, they literally applied the analytical skills of a breakfast burrito and devised the ridiculous handicap format that we will see this week. 

The buffoonish optics of this are going to be fantastic starting with the moment that Jason Kokrak hits the first tee shot to open the tournament and Justin Thomas will already be sitting at -10 on the leaderboard. In a perfect world, he will then light it up in the first round so he's -19 through 18 holes and has a 23 shot lead over a thoroughly disinterested Louis Oosthuizen. At least the folks at the USGA should be happy about looking slightly less dysfunctional for a week. It's a good thing we've got PGA Tour propaganda machine Dan Hicks on the call this week because it's going to take some epic spinning to make this not look like a low-budget middle school production of Miss Saigon.      

GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK

Miko Page on the range https://t.co/JYlg6mlZW5 pic.twitter.com/ytjlEiHqzD

— Golf Babes (@golfbabes) August 9, 2019

THIS WEEK'S ANALYSIS

I just don't think Justin Thomas is going to win it despite the head start and the fact that he's playing great right now. So with that ill-fated position taken, the next question is how far down can you go and still find a player with a reasonable shot of catching him? I think the answer is Rory McIlroy who will start five shots back and has the best go-low potential. You might be able to stretch one more shot back and look at Webb Simpson or Xander Schauffele but they have to climb over too many players and shots to get there.

As for values, however, I love that pack starting six shots back including Schauffele, Simpson and I'd throw Hideki Matsuyama in the mix. Working our way down, you have Adam Scott playing well and Tommy Fleetwood as the most likely candidate to come from way back and challenge this bullshit format. Paul Casey is always solid here and the lack of any pressure to win should serve him better than anyone.  

Justin Rose is the biggest no-brainer sleeper in the history of them to the extent there is such a history. As for the bargain guys, I think Bryson DeChambeau will play with an even bigger chip on his shoulder as he continues to wonder why he is so disliked when it's clearly everyone's else's fault that he's so unlikable. And finally, Lucas Glover will earn enough bonus money to buy his wife a Maserati which she will promptly drive into the river because she wanted a Ferrari.  

A Rory win might actually salvage
this mess. Emphasis on "might".

One and Done Pick: Rory McIlroy

Other Guy I'd Pick: Justin Thomas

Sleeper Pick: Justin Rose (duh)

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Rory McIlroy	$10,600
Webb Simpson	$9,700
Xander Schauffele	$9,500
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,300
Adam Scott	$8,200
Tommy Fleetwood	$7,700
Paul Casey	$7,500
Justin Rose	$6,900
B. DeChambeau	$5,500
Lucas Glover	$5,200

East Lake definitely has its favored sons which include J.T., Rory, Xander, D.J., Paul Casey and Justin Rose and I like all of them this week . . . except for D.J. who appears to have checked-out since his disappointing showing at the U.S. Open (I know I was disappointed). On the other hand, you've got a few high-profile players who haven't found their groove in Atlanta including Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed and Patrick Ewing who probably had his mind on certain post-round festivities . . . if you know what I mean . . . and I think you do.   

                     THE GOLD CLUB HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART 

	DK Price	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
JustinThomas	$15,500	T7	2nd	T6	DNP	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$12,400	T21	T20	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brooks Koepka	$12,200	26th	6th	DNP	T18	DNP
Rory. McIlroy	$10,600	T7	DNP	1st	T16	T2
Patrick Reed	$10,200	28th	T13	T24	27th	T19
Jon Rahm	$9,900	T11	T7	DNP	DNP	DNP
Webb Simpson	$9,700	T4	T13	DNP	DNP	T23
X. Schauffele	$9,500	T7	1st	DNP	DNP	DNP
H. Matsuyama	$9,300	T4	T26	5th	T12	22nd
Matt Kuchar	$9,100	DNP	T13	T15	T10	13th
Tony Finau	$8,800	T15	T7	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rickie Fowler	$8,600	T7	T26	DNP	T12	DNP
Dustin Johnson	$8,400	3rd	T17	T6	T5	DNP
Adam Scott	$8,200	DNP	DNP	T8	DNP	T9
Gary Woodland	$8,000	T11	19th	T10	DNP	T9
T. Fleetwood	$7,700	T11	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Paul Casey	$7,500	T11	5th	4th	T5	DNP
Brandt Snedeker	$7,300	DNP	DNP	T17	T22	DNP
Abraham Ancer	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Rose	$6,900	T4	T10	DNP	T2	DNP
Kevin Kisner	$6,600	DNP	T3	26th	28th	DNP
M. Leishman	$6,300	T21	T24	DNP	DNP	DNP
Corey Connors	$6,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sungjae Im	$5,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
L. Oosthuizen	$5,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	W/D	DNP
B. DeChambeau	$5,500	19th	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jason Kokrak	$5,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Lucas Glover	$5,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Chez Revie	$5,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
CH, III	$5,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com. 

Fantasy Golf: The BMW Championship Preview

And now for our third and final installment of the top golf courses in Maryland's 7th Congressional District. Hey remember when that was a big story a few months ago? Yeah well it was two weeks ago. Man time flies when you have a president who picks a new target for his pubescent rants every twenty minutes. I can't wait until he inevitably turns on Stephen Miller and we get a reenactment of the Will Patton scene from No Way Out.* Just kidding. He'll probably blow-up the planet before that happens. Anyway, here's the top five.

5. Rolling Road Golf Club

Rolling Road is one of those short bad-ass courses that newly minted single digit handicappers swagger onto with visions of career rounds dancing in their heads and then crawl off of wondering what happened to their wallet and keys. They're currently being sold out of the back of a nail salon in Arbutus. Thanks for coming. 

4. Baltimore Country Club (West)

Baltimore Country Club's West Course is exactly what a little brother course should be. Namely, it's different from the other course in a bunch of good ways. It's a modern par 72 with reachable par fives and greens that you can read without a secret decoder ring unlike it's neighbor to the east. Also, it's one of the other four courses on which I've broken par so I am naturally prone to overrate it (much like myself).     

3. Hillendale Country Club 

I've played Hillendale a bunch of times under somewhat competitive conditions and it's a very scrappy medium length track rolling through the hills of the north Baltimore County countryside surrounded by horse farms which begs the question, "what in the fuck is it doing in Maryland's 7th District?" It must kill those rednecks to be represented by Elijah Cummings. Clearly someone slid the envelope of cash under the wrong door during gerrymander season.

2. Mount Pleasant Golf Course 

Mount Pleasant is just a great golf course that happens to live on the north side of Baltimore City and you have to love the fact that Northern Parkway runs right through the middle of it because both times you cross it you're sharing the road with Pimlico Race Course, the Senator Theater, a few settings for David Simon shows and three snobby prep schools. Don't get much more Baltimore than that. Oh yeah, Arnold Palmer won a professional tournament here so suck on that every congressional district that doesn't have a course where the King won. 

1. Baltimore Country Club (East)

The #2 ranked course in the State of Maryland and the site of some of my most proud golfing moments and, more importantly, my most soul-crushing failures. I have my issues with the East course but then again, I have my issues with everything so that's not necessarily a detraction. If you can survive the gauntlet of the first five holes, you can actually score over the next nine before getting your ass kicked on the way home. I've had more horrendous starts and blown more 3 up with 4 to play leads on that course than I care to remember. I think it might be mental (good guess sport).  

And now this. 

GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK

If you didn't catch the Women's U.S. Amateur, then you missed this clutch shot followed by a clutcher shot and then the cluchest shot to end it:

What a way to win the #USWomensAm title for Gabriela Ruffels, throwing a 🎯 into 18 and then answering Albane Valenzuela's stuffed approach with a clinching birdie putt. Phenomenal finish. pic.twitter.com/NjSgyXubGj

— USGA (@USGA) August 11, 2019

THIS WEEK'S ANALYSIS

So last week I had the foresight to put Patrick Reed in my top ten based on the rationale that "it's been a long time since he's bothered us and he's due." There aren't many things worse about this job than being right about Patrick Reed's success though picking Bryson DeChambeau for a team you have to live with all year is way the hell up there. (I thought he had it all figured-out!)

This week we've got ANOTHER venue that the pros haven't played in forever unless you count the 2012 Ryder Cup debacle. The last time Medinah hosted a stroke play event, Tiger Woods and Luke Donald entered the final round of the 2006 PGA Championship tied for the lead and I don't need to tell you what happened next. It is, however, instructive that Donald finished in the top ten along with other notorious fairway splitters Sergio Garcia, Mike Weir, K.J. Choi, Steve Stricker and Ryan Moore. Clearly the accuracy to distance ratio leans heavily towards the former on this course.

So I'm picking Ian Poulter which makes no sense whatsoever except that (a) he was the star of the 2012 Ryder Cup, (b) he is currently playing well and (c) he is going to be milking every last ounce from that 2012 experience this week and the closer he is to the top of the leaderboard, the more chances he'll have to do that. Also, I've already used Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele who would be my first two choices. 

The rest of this week's picks basically follow that straight hitter formula with the exception of Rory McIlroy at the top which is just a straight-up hunch that he is going to distinguish himself among the top players. It's kind of a process of elimination thing because Jon Rahm and Justin Rose can't seem to close anymore, we've lost D.J. completely and I think Brooks is going to chill until he wipes the floor with everyone at East Lake.   

If I had really wanted to capture the Medinah
nightmare, I would've gone with a picture of 
Davis Love, III praying into a walkie-talkie.

One and Done Pick: Ian Poulter

Other Guy I'd Pick: Patrick Cantlay

Sleeper Pick: Chez Reavie

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Rory McIlroy	$11,500
Patrick Cantlay	$9,800
Tommy Fleetwood	$9,000
Xander Schauffele	$8,600
Ian Poulter	$8,000
Francesco Molinari	$7,800
Shane Lowry	$7,600
Lucas Glover	$7,100
Chez Reavie	$7,000
Graeme McDowell	$6,300

Footnote

* One of these days I need to rank the greatest "where in the fuck did that guy/girl come from" movie performances of all-time and Will Patton's eerie almost reptilian portrayal of Scott Pritchard in No Way Out will absolutely be top five. Now I just need to come-up with at least four more. (Email address is below if you have any suggestions).  

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com. 

Fantasy Golf: The Northern Trust Preview

I am literally writing from the middle of the woods in West Virginia with some wicked cornhole commentary coming from my left and from my right I've got Janet on the speaker phone with Bobby explaining to him that "I keep telling Marge to cut back on the cigarrettes and take her pills but she won't listen to me and, when she ends-up back in the damn hospital again, it ain't gonna be my fault goddammit" (though I detect a poorly concealed sense  of responsibility in Janet's voice and I worry that she's going to blame herself when Marge inevitably ends-up back in the hospital despite her doing everything she can to prevent it). 

So writing conditions are an ideal combination of serenity and comedy. Let's pick-up on our rankings of the golf courses in Maryland's 7th Congressional District where only the bravest humans dare to live . . . much less golf.

10. Hobbit's Glenn Golf Club

It must be at least a top ten course because it used to host the State Farm Senior Classic back in the late 90's but I think that had more to do with its proximity to I-95 and the fact that it's almost equidistant to Baltimore and Washington, D.C.  Unfortunately, they learned their lesson the hard-way that trying to host a sporting event that appeals to both of those markets at the same time is like trying to host a picnic for the Sunnis and the Shiites. (That means it folded).

9. Waverly Woods Golf Club

Waverly Woods is actually a decent Arthur Hills design that opened during that period when developers figured people like me would drive 45 minutes and pay $60 to play 5+ hour rounds forever. It's still open so I guess people still do. I just don't know any of them anymore. 

8. Forest Park Golf Course

Our second of the three Baltimore City municipal tracks on this list and another one that's underrated for (a) it's design, (b) it's cool inside the beltway location and, most importantly, (c) the fact that it's one of four courses on which I've broken par. Suffice it to say that it's a magical place. 

7. The Woodlands

They built The Woodlands right next to Diamond Ridge because I think they felt like the people who live near beltway Exit -15 deserved more than a daily mention in the 98 Rock traffic report (man fuck the triple bridges). I can't really tell you anything about it other than it's got that modern moundy feel and I enjoy it every time I play it. And that includes one day this past winter when the prudes who run the fancy courses wouldn't let the kids play on them so I ponied-up the greens fee to get some fresh air and satisfy my jones on what was probably a 70 degree January afternoon. Don't get me started on the fancy golf course prudes but last time I checked . . . it's dirt and grass. Let's move on. 

6. Hayfield's Country Club 

Hey look another course that's hosted a Senior Tour event. Who could argue that Baltimore isn't respected when we get all of these senior events? (Don't answer that). 

We're going to save the top five for next week because when you stumble on to a good writing crutch, you need to milk it until it's dry and then milk it for one more week. And now this.

GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK

Oh my fucking God . . . 

Long-drive competitor's swing in slow-mo. This is Cassandra (Blaney) Meyer. https://t.co/3aHwBWWU5d pic.twitter.com/PwihKpc6SK

— Golf Babes (@golfbabes) August 4, 2019

THIS WEEK'S ANALYSIS

They haven't played Liberty National since The Barclays in 2013 but it yielded a solid leaderboard that year with Adam Scott taking the title and Justin Rose, Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler all finishing in the top ten. I'm not going to do a full-blown chart this week but here is that 2013 leaderboard if you want to take a gander. The last time they played before that was 2009 when Heath Slocum screwed everything up by shooting a final round 67 and denying us a playoff between Woods, Ernie Els, Padraig Harrington and Steve Stricker.  

For my one and done this week, I'm going with Francesco Molinari but remember that I have to pick a guy I haven't picked before. If I had every player at my disposal, I'd probably go with Justin Rose who I wasted when he inexplicably rogered me by missing the cut at The Masters (and no I'm not getting past it). With that being said, other than Brooks Koepka, there aren't really any other players I'd jump at ahead of Molinari. I'm pretty sure he's going to win one of these three events so why not this one? 

As much as I hate going with the hot player just because he's the hot player, it's really hard not to like Webb Simpson in that second tier price range. Same thing with Patrick Reed at $8,100. It's been a long time since he bothered us and he's due. 

Rory Sabbatini finished T13 here in 2013 and he seems to have resurrected his career in 2019 which is awesome because now he's relevant enough to deliver us a new "Rory Sabbatini's being kind of a dick again" story. And not in this new passive aggressive style like when Bryson DeChambeau is kind of a dick or Jordan Spieth is kind of a dick. No. When Rory Sabbatini wants to be a dick, he's just a dick and frankly the game is better for it. 

A step down from there I'm taking some flyers on Mickelson, Bubba Watson and Scott Piercy. Phil has to be getting a little tired of just being a novelty act at this point . . . (are you sure?). Bubba and Piercy round-out my scowling quadrifecta with Reed and Sabbatini. 

And finally this week's sleeper is Nick Watney who finished T9th here in 2013 and T6th in 2009. Nick has spent much of the season rotating through the sleeper spot with Nick Taylor, Nick Jonas and Nick Tortelli without much success but this is the week. I can feel it. And with that, I'm off to purchase an orangutan act. (Did he say purchase or join?) Heyoooo!!!!    

I can't say anything snarky with Lady Liberty in the
picture so I will leave it at I'd like to play this course
and you know where to find me if you need a 4th.

One and Done Pick: Francesco Molinari

Other Guy I'd Pick: Justin Rose

Sleeper Pick: Rory Sabbatini

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Brooks Koepka	$12,000
Justin Rose	$9,600
Webb Simpson	$9,400
Francesco Molinari	$8,700
Patrick Reed	$8,100
Rory Sabbatini	$7,700
Bubba Watson	$7,400
Scott Piercy	$7,300
Phil Mickelson	$7,100
Nick Watney	$6,700

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.