Tuesday, September 1, 2020

Fantasy Golf: The Tour Championship Preview

Well at least I'll get the golf course right this week assuming they didn't up and move this one too without telling anyone . . . shut up.

It turns-out that botching last week's preview was just the warm-up act for a week of debaclery (I know all the best words) culminating with me pulling an epic gag job on the 19th hole of a match that actually mattered to me and the weirdos in the worm store.* But hey, it's not like my partner and I clawed back from 3 down with 4 to play only to both throw-up on our shoes in overtime. Actually it was exactly like that. Fuck it. That which does not kill me makes for good writing fodder. Maybe I'll share the details later after the area is cleared of sharp objects. 

Moving on . . .     

TWEET OF THE WEEK

An icon in the making and he was just getting warmed-up dammit. Man this was one grounded, talented and cool dude . . . 

RISING FROM THE ASHES LIKE A FUCKING PHOENIX GOLF ANALYSIS

We've got only three former winners in the field and ten guys who've never played here before so that's kind of weird. And then we have to reconcile that with the fact that the leaderboard at East Lake tends to hold pretty true to form while we work within the confines of DraftKings wacky 30 man field formula (which is awesome by the way). Now add the fact that I'm slightly inebriated and let's see where this takes us.  

First off, D.J. is out. He's just too expensive and prone to drop a stink bomb like he did last year and it's preposterous to think he's worth $3,300 more than Justin Thomas and beyond ludicrous to think he's worth $5,500 more than Rory McIlroy who's won here twice. Suffice it to say I'm recommending Thomas and McIlroy. I stand by my belief that Thomas is the best player in the world until he keeps proving that I'm almost but not quite right. 

This course feels like an ideal set-up for Collin Morikawa to pull a 2017 Xander Schauffele so I'm picking both of them. Even after his win at the PGA Championship, I'm still not sure people understand how good Morikiawa is. He's really fucking good. And so is Schauffele who is going to either win this week or one of the two remaining majors. Deal with it!

Now it gets interesting. I'm going with Hideki Matsuyama over Daniel Berger based on course history (that's not the interesting part). And you are almost obligated to take Tony Finau who is a top five machine even if he's destined to be a glitzier version of Charles Howell, III. Brendon Todd is a ridiculous value. Even for a zombie. 

You kinda gotta go with Billy Horschel at $5,700 right? I mean who wants to be sitting there on Sunday smacking their forehead as Horschel back-doors a 5th place finish? I don't. And I feel almost the same way about Ryan Palmer who will inevitably play in the second to last group before fading to 7th. 

We need one low priced new guy and I like Viktor Hovland because, out of all the low-priced new guys, he's by far the best golfer. 

And one final note . . . Scottie Scheffler could contend and, if I had the energy to write this over again, I'd probably pick him but you have now idea how much work it is for this caveman to get all of this shit on here every week in some semblance of order. So I'm not changing it. But I think I'd take Scheffler over Finau. I'll probably see how the numbers workout and tweet my final decision from a bathroom stall tomorrow. Stay classy West Towson . . . 

Just look at him . . . he definitely
knows something we don't know. 
One and Done Pick: Xander Schauffele

Other Guy I'd Pick: Justin Thomas


Sleeper Pick: Viktor Hovland


DraftKings Top Ten Values


Justin Thomas
$11,900
Collin Morikawa
$10,400
Rory McIlroy
$9,700
Hideki Matsuyama
$9,300
Xander Schauffele
$8,900
Tony Finau
$8,200
Brendon Todd
$7,600
Viktor Hovland
$6,600
Billy Horschel
$5,700
Ryan Palmer
$5,400

Thanks to all of the new guys, we have a lot of DNP's so most of the value of the chart is at the top but hard to ignore Horschel's runner-up in 2018 and not featured is his win in 2014. Also revealing is how badly Marc Leishman plays this course. He did, however, finish +30 last week so he's coming in off a lot of reps.    


                      THE FLY THE DEFIANT SKIES OF ANTIFA AIRLINES 
                               HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART


DK Price
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Dustin Johnson
$15,200
T29
3rd
T17
T6
T5
Jon Rahm
$12,700
T12
T11
T7
DNP
DNP
Justin Thomas
$11,900
T3
T7
2nd
T6
DNP
Webb Simpson
$11,000
T16
T4
T13
DNP
DNP
Collin Morikawa
$10,400
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
B. DeChambeau
$10,100
T12
19th
DNP
DNP
DNP
Rory McIlroy
$9,700
1st
T7
DNP
1st
T16
Hideki Matsuyama
$9,300
T9
T4
T26
5th
T12
Daniel Berger
$9,100
DNP
DNP
DNP
T15
T12
Xander Schauffele
$8,900
2nd
T7
1st
DNP
DNP
Harris English
$8,700
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
T22
Patrick Reed
$8,500
T9
28th
T13
T24
27th
Tony Finau
$8,200
7th
T15
T7
DNP
DNP
Scottie Scheffler
$7,900
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Brendon Todd
$7,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Sunjae Im
$7,300
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Tyrrell Hatton
$7,000
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Kevin Kisner
$6,800
T9
DNP
T3
26th
28th
Viktor Hovland
$6,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Joaquin Niemann
$6,300
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Abraham Ancer
$6,100
T21
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Sebastian Munoz
$5,900
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Billy Horschel
$5,700
DNP
2nd
DNP
DNP
DNP
Lanto Griffin
$5,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Kevin Na
$5,500
DNP
25th
DNP
29th
T16
Ryan Palmer
$5,400
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Cameron Champ
$5,300
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Mackenzie Hughes
$5,200
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Cameron Smith
$5,100
DNP
20th
DNP
DNP
DNP
Marc Leishman
$5,000
T24
T21
T24
DNP
DNP

Footnote

* We haven't done a footnote in a while. Anyway, the obscure reference above is derived from a Homer Simpson quote as he's trying to explain to Marge how catching a large fish while all alone in a random pond makes him a hero to "the weirdos in the worm store" which is pretty much what most of us are playing for at this stage of our athletic careers. For we are to each other the weirdos in the worm store.    

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

1 comment:

lee ho fook said...

If you can believe it, I did get the worm store reference. to button this up - "Went by the name of Homer. Seven feet tall he was, with arms like tree trunks. And his eyes were like steel, cold and hard. Had A shock of hair, red, like the fires of hell.