Fantasy Golf: Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview

Arguably the chalkiest pick you will make all year is Hideki Matsuyama this week but you will choose him or spend four days ruing the error of your ways. I know this is blasphemous but Hideki at TPC Scottsdale is the modern equivalent of vintage Tiger Woods at Bay Hill and Firestone and um Torrey Pines (holy shit who wins eight times on three different golf courses?!?). Before having to withdraw last year with a bum wrist, Hideki had an epic run in the dessert that went a little something like T4, T2, win and win. Is that something I could interest you in? 

Behind Hideki you have a slew of mid-range to borderline great players who regularly kick-ass at TPC Boozedale. Phil Mickelson has won this thing three times, most recently in 2013 when he lipped-out a putt for a first round 59 after which I got into a Twitter feud with some dopey stuffed Pickering shirt golf writer because I said there was no doubt the crowd would have stormed the green if he had made that putt. Of course we'll never really know but I was right. 

Rickie Fowler thrives in the Waste Management's low stress/high glitz environment and he is absolutely going to win this tournament someday sparking a bunch of mindless chatter about whether that will be the year he wins his first major which will be a waste of everyone's time because he's going to win the 2023 British Open. I'm giving him the slight nod over Matt Kuchar in the $9,000-$9,500 range but, unlike that stone cold lock British Open prediction, it's nothing more than a hunch because Kuch is playing lights-out and can't wait to stiff some waiters and valets this week heyoooo.   

Then you have your supporting cast of Daniel Berger, Martin Laird and Brendan Steele. At least two of those three is going to finish in the top ten. Beyond that, here are three other things you need to know that you cannot glean from the Norelco Past Performance Chart below.

• J.B. Holmes won here twice (2006 and 2008) so the trend over the last eleven years has definitely been in favor of the long ball guys (Mickelson, Brooks Koepka, Gary Woodland, etc.) but Mark Wilson and Hunter Mahan have also won it and the list of runner-ups is peppered with course managers like Chez Reavie, Webb Simpson, Ben Crane and Jason Dufner so a young guy who hits a lot of fairways like Abraham Ancer or Austin Cook is going to be a factor. I'm going with Ancer this week because I've been going with Ancer just about every week and sooner or later he's going to payoff.  

• The Euros struggle in this environment. Not that a lot of them play in Arizona because they're all terrified of snakes (it's true) but, since 2005 only Jon Rahm, Shane Lowry, Padraig Harrington and Freddie Jacobson have posted top tens here. You'd think they'd revel in the boisterous environment considering how well they play in the Ryder Cup but maybe they need it to be more musical and choreographed like this fiasco. It's probably going to take a visit from Eddie Pepperell to get them a win here. 

• I played this a few years ago and actually shot -2 on the front (yeah which tees?) before coming back to Earth on the back and finishing +3 because the guys I was playing with were a bunch of resort golfer hacks in the ugliest shirts you can possibly imagine (nope, worse than that). Anyway, that makes me kind of an expert so bet big.

They had the stands built when I played the
16th hole so I closed my eyes and imagined
the crowd. Then I choked and made a bogey.

One and Done Pick: Hideki Matsuyama

Other Guy I'd Pick: Phil Mickelson

Sleeper Pick: Bud Cauley

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Hideki Matsuyama	$10,700
Webb Simpson	$9,700
Rickie Fowler	$9,400
Phil Mickelson	$9,300
Daniel Berger	$8,200
Abraham Ancer	$7,700
Martin Laird	$7,600
Brendan Steele	$7,400
Bud Cauley	$6,900
Harris English	$6,900

And here is every player I even remotely considered. Picking the six or seven top values on this course is easy. It's the next three that will fuck you up so I studied a lot of game film before settling on Ancer, Cauley and English.

                    THE NORELCO PAST PERFORMANCE CHART

	DK Price	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Jon Rahm	$11,500	T11	T16	DNP	T5	DNP
Justin Thomas	$11,000	T17	MC	MC	T17	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$10,700	W/D	1st	1st	T2	T4
Xander Schauffele	$10,100	T17	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Gary Woodland	$9,900	1st	MC	T33	MC	T37
Webb Simpson	$9,700	MC	2nd	T14	DNP	10th
Tony Finau	$9,500	MC	MC	MC	T22	DNP
Rickie Fowler	$9,400	T11	T4	2nd	T46	MC
Phil Mickelson	$9,300	T5	T16	T11	MC	T42
Matt Kuchar	$9,200	T5	T9	DNP	T30	DNP
Cameron Smith	$9,100	T48	T42	MC	DNP	DNP
Adam Hadwin	$9,000	T43	T12	T17	MC	DNP
Bubba Watson	$8,900	T40	MC	T14	T2	T2
Billy Horschel	$8,800	T43	T24	T24	T30	MC
Chez Reavie	$8,700	2nd	MC	MC	MC	DNP
Byeon Hun An	$8,600	T23	6th	DNP	DNP	DNP
Andrew Putnam	$8,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Alex Noren	$8,400	T21	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Cameron Champ	$8,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Daniel Berger	$8,200	T11	T7	T58	T10	DNP
Brandt Snedeker	$8,100	T23	DNP	T33	T10	T61
Luke List	$8,000	T26	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Austin Cook	$7,900	T31	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tyrrell Hatton	$7,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Keegan Bradley	$7,800	T43	MC	T24	T17	MC
Zach Johnson	$7,800	T57	T12	T14	T10	DNP
Abraham Ancer	$7,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ryan Palmer	$7,700	MC	MC	T24	T2	T48
Emiliano Grillo	$7,600	T57	T63	T45	DNP	DNP
J.B. Holmes	$7,600	MC	T24	T6	T66	T58
Martin Laird	$7,600	T9	T7	T41	T5	T19
Kyle Stanley	$7,500	MC	T36	T45	MC	MC
Si Woo Kim	$7,500	T62	MC	T67	DNP	DNP
Brendan Steele	$7,400	T3	T16	T17	T26	T6
Jason Kokrak	$7,300	T31	MC	MC	T40	T15
Kevin Na	$7,200	T48	T16	T24	T26	T19
Ryan Moore	$7,200	MC	T61	T11	T17	T6
Beau Hossler	$7,100	T17	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Bill Haas	$7,100	T26	DNP	DNP	76	T34
Chesson Hadley	$7,100	T5	DNP	T60	MC	DNP
J.J. Spaun	$7,100	W/D	T4	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kevin Tway	$7,100	T57	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Sam Burns	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Bud Cauley	$6,900	MC	T47	DNP	DNP	DNP
Charley Hoffman	$6,900	T26	T24	T51	T53	T61
Harris English	$6,900	MC	T57	3rd	T40	9th
Peter Uihlein	$6,800	MC	MC	T17	DNP	DNP
Brian Gay	$6,700	T9	T47	64th	DNP	T61
Ollie Schnieds	$6,700	T3	T24	DNP	DNP	DNP
James Hahn	$6,400	T11	MC	T17	T59	MC

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