The Masters should be the most predictable event of the year considering it's exclusive field and the fact that they insist on playing the same crappy course over and over again (just wanted to know what it would feel like to write that and it frankly felt kind of dirty in that waking-up in a stranger's apartment wearing nothing but your socks and one rubber glove kind of way . . . I think I've said too much). The tournament also has a history of (a) repeat winners including three who could contend this year in Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson; and (b) guys winning it in their 40's (Jack Nicklaus, Ben Crenshaw and Bernhard Langer) so the green jacket window seems to stay open forever (are we trying to air condition the whole goddamn neighborhood?!?).
And here's more evidence to support the premise that I'm going to shoot down in a couple of paragraphs. Jordan Spieth has played the Masters four times and gone T2, 1st, T2 and T11. He's one of five players with at least three top tens in the last five years along with Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Paul Casey and Matt Kuchar. During that span, not one of those players has missed the cut. Right behind them when it comes to recent success you've got Dustin Johnson with two top fives and a T13, Hideki Matsuyama with two top tens and a T11 and Jason Day with two top tens and no finish worse than T28. Augusta is like a David Lynch movie. Some people (not me) just get it on a different level.
Then you have the track records of the two resurgent superstars which is frankly just silly. Tiger has won four green jackets, finished 8th or better nine other times and hasn't missed the cut since 1996. Phil has finished 7th or better fourteen times and, during one stretch from 1999-2010, rattled-off eight top five finishes including three wins and only finished outside of the top ten once with a T24 in 2007 (and that was during the Zach Johnson-Trevor Immelman era a/k/a the two Masters that never happened).
Despite all of that apparent consistency, we've had nine first time winners since 2007 with Phil and Bubba being the only exceptions. Compare that to the stretch from 1990 to 2006 when we had eleven repeat winners thanks primarily to the runs of Tiger, Phil and Nick Faldo. So the question we have to ask ourselves in 2018 is "what's it's gonna be this year Johnny?" (Feel free to insert your own name). A familiar face or another new guy? I'm going with the latter and will get to that in a minute.
Let's start with the top ten. I'm seeing three past winners including one but not both of the legends so let's go with Spieth, Bubba and Tiger (sorry Phil). Rose, Casey and Kuchar seem like obvious picks based on their history and current form. That leaves four spots and at least one will be filled by the random Euro/Asian player no one has heard of except those of us who can name every player in the field but couldn't name of one of our kids' teachers. This year that guy will be Kiradech Aphibarnrat (I think he teaches algebra).
So now we're down to three. We need one more big name, one tour grinder and one really good player who no one is talking about this week so we can all go "dammit fuck shit why didn't I think of that guy?" For the big name I like Jason Day who plays better when he's feeling a bit underestimated and his win at the Farmers was just distant enough for that to be the case. The tour grinder is Russell Henley who has been solid lately and finished tied for 11th here last year. And the guy no one is talking about is Henrik Stenson who missed the cut at last year's Masters but had four consecutive top 25's before that. He's playing great coming-off a T6 in Houston and a 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
And the winner is . . . Justin Rose. It basically came down to him, Spieth or Bubba with a fleeting consideration of Paul Casey until I remembered the fantasy golf maxim that Paul Casey will never win a major. I think Spieth could be on the same kind of run that Mickelson had from 1999 through 2010 so he would certainly be a logical pick but man, those short putting issues. Bubba would be the bold pick but I don't want to root for Bubba. Besides, I think we all agree that Rose is going to win another major at some point and the Masters is the most likely candidate. The only thing standing in his way this year would be an epic run by one of the other favorites. Well that and the fact that I just picked him.
Here's a breakdown of fifty players ranked by DraftKings price for your consideration. Ian Poulter is not included because (a) I did this before he qualified and (b) I don't think he's going to be a factor this week. The top ten DraftKings values are below the big ass colorful chart. And with that my work here is done. I am now going to play golf and drink in the rain which means that FGR Masters week is officially underway.
The One and Done Pick: Justin Rose
The Sleeper Pick: Kiradech Aphibarnrat
The DraftKings Top Ten Values
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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"I woke-up, took the belt off my neck and got out of there. I thought I was going to have to shoot my way out." |
Then you have the track records of the two resurgent superstars which is frankly just silly. Tiger has won four green jackets, finished 8th or better nine other times and hasn't missed the cut since 1996. Phil has finished 7th or better fourteen times and, during one stretch from 1999-2010, rattled-off eight top five finishes including three wins and only finished outside of the top ten once with a T24 in 2007 (and that was during the Zach Johnson-Trevor Immelman era a/k/a the two Masters that never happened).
Despite all of that apparent consistency, we've had nine first time winners since 2007 with Phil and Bubba being the only exceptions. Compare that to the stretch from 1990 to 2006 when we had eleven repeat winners thanks primarily to the runs of Tiger, Phil and Nick Faldo. So the question we have to ask ourselves in 2018 is "what's it's gonna be this year Johnny?" (Feel free to insert your own name). A familiar face or another new guy? I'm going with the latter and will get to that in a minute.
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The ladies call him "Kirasexy". |
So now we're down to three. We need one more big name, one tour grinder and one really good player who no one is talking about this week so we can all go "dammit fuck shit why didn't I think of that guy?" For the big name I like Jason Day who plays better when he's feeling a bit underestimated and his win at the Farmers was just distant enough for that to be the case. The tour grinder is Russell Henley who has been solid lately and finished tied for 11th here last year. And the guy no one is talking about is Henrik Stenson who missed the cut at last year's Masters but had four consecutive top 25's before that. He's playing great coming-off a T6 in Houston and a 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
And the winner is . . . Justin Rose. It basically came down to him, Spieth or Bubba with a fleeting consideration of Paul Casey until I remembered the fantasy golf maxim that Paul Casey will never win a major. I think Spieth could be on the same kind of run that Mickelson had from 1999 through 2010 so he would certainly be a logical pick but man, those short putting issues. Bubba would be the bold pick but I don't want to root for Bubba. Besides, I think we all agree that Rose is going to win another major at some point and the Masters is the most likely candidate. The only thing standing in his way this year would be an epic run by one of the other favorites. Well that and the fact that I just picked him.
Here's a breakdown of fifty players ranked by DraftKings price for your consideration. Ian Poulter is not included because (a) I did this before he qualified and (b) I don't think he's going to be a factor this week. The top ten DraftKings values are below the big ass colorful chart. And with that my work here is done. I am now going to play golf and drink in the rain which means that FGR Masters week is officially underway.
THE HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART CALLED QUEST
DK
PRICE
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
2014
|
2013
|
|
Dustin Johnson
|
$11,400
|
DNP
|
T4
|
T6
|
MC
|
T13
|
Justin Thomas
|
$10,800
|
T22
|
T39
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jordan Spieth
|
$10,400
|
T11
|
T2
|
1st
|
T2
|
DNP
|
Tiger Woods
|
$10,000
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T17
|
DNP
|
T4
|
Rory McIlroy
|
$9,900
|
T7
|
T10
|
4th
|
T8
|
T25
|
Jason Day
|
$9,800
|
T22
|
T10
|
T28
|
T20
|
3rd
|
Phil Mickelson
|
$9,500
|
T22
|
MC
|
T2
|
MC
|
T54
|
Jon Rahm
|
$9,300
|
T27
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Justin Rose
|
$9,200
|
2nd
|
T10
|
T2
|
T14
|
T25
|
Rickie Fowler
|
$9,000
|
T11
|
MC
|
T12
|
T5
|
T38
|
Paul Casey
|
$8,800
|
6th
|
T4
|
6th
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Bubba Watson
|
$8,700
|
MC
|
T37
|
T38
|
1st
|
T50
|
Sergio Garcia
|
$8,600
|
1st
|
T35
|
T17
|
MC
|
T8
|
Hideki Matsuyama
|
$8,500
|
T11
|
T7
|
5th
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Tommy Fleetwood
|
$8,400
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Thomas Pieters
|
$8,300
|
T4
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Marc Leishman
|
$8,200
|
T43
|
MC
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T4
|
Alex Noren
|
$8,100
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Adam Scott
|
$8,000
|
T9
|
T42
|
T38
|
T14
|
1st
|
Loois Oosthuizen
|
$7,900
|
T41
|
T15
|
T19
|
25th
|
MC
|
Henrik Stenson
|
$7,800
|
MC
|
T24
|
T19
|
T14
|
T18
|
Patrick Reed
|
$7,700
|
MC
|
T49
|
T22
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Tyrell Hatton
|
$7,700
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Matt Kuchar
|
$7,600
|
T4
|
T24
|
T46
|
T5
|
T8
|
Brian Harman
|
$7,500
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Daniel Berger
|
$7,500
|
T27
|
T10
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Branden Grace
|
$7,400
|
T27
|
MC
|
MC
|
MC
|
T18
|
Charl Schwartzel
|
$7,400
|
3rd
|
MC
|
T38
|
MC
|
T25
|
Tony Finau
|
$7,400
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
M. Fitzpatrick
|
$7,300
|
32nd
|
T7
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
R. Cabrera-Bello
|
$7,300
|
MC
|
T17
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Webb Simpson
|
$7,300
|
MC
|
T29
|
T28
|
MC
|
MC
|
Gary Woodland
|
$7,200
|
MC
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T26
|
DNP
|
Kevin Kisner
|
$7,200
|
T43
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Charley Hoffman
|
$7,100
|
T22
|
T29
|
T9
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
K. Aphibarnrat
|
$7,100
|
DNP
|
T15
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Russell Henley
|
$7,100
|
T11
|
DNP
|
21
|
T31
|
MC
|
F. Molinari
|
$7,000
|
T33
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
50th
|
MC
|
Ryan Moore
|
$7,000
|
T9
|
MC
|
T12
|
MC
|
T38
|
Zach Johnson
|
$7,000
|
MC
|
MC
|
T9
|
MC
|
T35
|
Brendon Steele
|
$6,900
|
T27
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
B. DeChambeau
|
$6,900
|
DNP
|
T21
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Kevin Chappell
|
$6,900
|
T7
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Martin Kaymer
|
$6,900
|
T16
|
T49
|
MC
|
DNP
|
T35
|
Pat Perez
|
$6,900
|
T18
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
B. Wiesberger
|
$6,800
|
T43
|
T34
|
T22
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Danny Willett
|
$6,800
|
MC
|
1st
|
T38
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jason Dufner
|
$6,800
|
T33
|
MC
|
T49
|
MC
|
T20
|
Jimmy Walker
|
$6,800
|
T18
|
T29
|
T38
|
T8
|
DNP
|
Fred Couples
|
$6,700
|
T18
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T20
|
T13
|
The One and Done Pick: Justin Rose
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The plan was to class it up this year but that kind of went by the wayside in the first paragraph |
The Sleeper Pick: Kiradech Aphibarnrat
The DraftKings Top Ten Values
Jordan Spieth
|
$10,400
|
Tiger Woods
|
$10,000
|
Jason Day
|
$9,800
|
Justin Rose
|
$9,200
|
Paul Casey
|
$8,800
|
Bubba Watson
|
$8,700
|
Henrik Stenson
|
$7,800
|
Matt Kuchar
|
$7,600
|
K. Aphibarnrat
|
$7,100
|
Russell Henley
|
$7,100
|
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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