Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Fantasy Golf: The Valspar Championship Preview

I'm an idiot but we already kind of knew that. Case in point, I concluded last week's preview by writing, "So after spending a paragraph making a case for the four guys you should absolutely choose from this week, we added a paragraph manufacturing a bunch of sketchy excuses for why we're picking someone else. And we wonder why we're in a slump." I then proceeded to pick Rickie Fowler* over the aforementioned four guys who were Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson and J.B. Holmes. So theoretically I still had a 50% chance of screwing-up the pick but not really when you consider that:

(A) I had already used D.J. so he wasn't part of my equation (which is really the only solace I can take from this debacle after his Sunday 79); and 

(b) I would never pick a borderline second tier player like Holmes in a WGC caliber event.

That left Scott and Watson who of course finished 1-2 and systematically ruined my Sunday afternoon by dominating the back nine. I tried to get my heart into rooting for Danny Willett but when it comes to his resume, we'll quote the great Richard Masur** and say, "you've done a lot of solid work here but it's just not Ivy League now is it?" His tee shot into the water on 18 was very University of Illinois. I never really considered Rory because he's in one of those spazzy Rory ruts where he plays one round per tournament like a guy who lost a contact lens which may also explain his choice of shirts. We'll wait until he sorts-out his putting stroke and his wardrobe before calling his number.

In the meantime, we have to press-on to the next tournament because that's what fantasy golf writers do when they're not pondering how in the hell they wound-up being fantasy golf writers (Good Lord snap out of it man!). The Valspar Championship is played on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club on the left side of Florida. Along with Harbour Town, it's one of the few courses on tour where it doesn't help to be Bubba or J.B. which is why most of the bombers aren't playing and those who do probably won't fare very well (Gary Woodland won here in 2011 but that was an anomaly). 

Aside from not being long off the tee, the players who have been 
historically successful at this event share one other trait. They are mind numbingly boring. Here are the winners from 2008-2014: John Senden, Kevin Streelman, Woodland, Luke Donald, Jim Furyk, Retief Goosen and Sean O'Hair. Holy shit someone pass me the Adderall and smelling salts before I lose consciousness and my forehead hits the coffee table. 

So with that trend in mind and because I'm not risking Jordan Spieth, I'm going with the player who makes watching paint dry feel like taking an Olympic luge run naked (it had to be naked right?). I don't even want to write his name here because I'm so disgusted with myself so you'll have to scroll down to see it. And to think it was less than a month ago that I was soaking in the glory of picking back to back winners. Can a brother get a little cheering-up from an award winning British actress with the same last name as this week's pick and her co-star from the critically acclaimed Girl on Girl Tickle Wards?

The Valspar Favorites
Thanks Carmel Moore.

1. Jordan Spieth - 5/1
2. Henrik Stenson - 11/1
3. Patrick Reed - 20/1
4. Danny Willett - 22/1
5. Louis Oostuizen - 28/1
6. Justin Thomas - 28/1
7. Charl Schwartzel - 30/1
8. Graeme McDowell - 30/1
9. Matt Kuchar - 33/1
10. Branden Grace - 33/1

Ten Guys We Like

Jordan Spieth - 5/1
Henrik Stenson - 11/1
Jason Dufner - 35/1
Harris English - 35/1
Ryan Moore - 45/1
Luke Donald - 45/1
Also thought you were superb in
Spicy Wrap Girls Lindsay Marie.
K.J. Choi - 45/1
John Senden - 70/1
Sean O'Hair - 80/1
Vijay Singh - 125/1

One and Done Pick: Ryan Moore

Sleeper Pick: Vijay Singh

Picks to Date

Hyundai: Dustin Johnson  $148,000
Sony: Matt Kuchar  $77,604
CareerBuilder: Ryan Palmer  $75,897
Farmers Brandt Snedeker $1,170,000
Phoenix Hideki Matsuyama $1,170,000
Pebble Beach: Jimmy Walker $143,500
Northern Trust: Sergio Garcia $0
Honda: Patrick Reed $0
Cadillac: Rickie Fowler $197,500
Total $2,982,501


* If Fowler doesn't play the 3rd hole six over on Friday and Saturday, he finishes tied for second and we're not having this conversation. Hey Rickie, you might want to add that hole to #15 at Scottsdale on your 2016 "Lets Try a New Strategy" list. You big dummy. (It's impossible to say anything really mean about Rickie. Believe me, if I can't do it, it's impossible).  

** If you've never seen Head Office with Masur, Rick Moranis, Judge Reinhold and Wallace Shawn, give the first hour a look the next time it's on Showtime 2 but shut it down as soon as the first seen with Father Guido Sarducci as the limo driver is over. That's the point where you realize they're trying to ruin it with a plot and a message.  

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

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