The FGR Super Bowl Preview

Let's get one thing straight right off the bat. I don't give a crap who wins this game. I don't care about Peyton Manning's legacy. I saw Joe Montana play in his prime and, as much as I despised him, I haven't seen anyone play the position as well as he did so as far as I'm concerned, Manning, Brady and Elway are all jockeying for second place no matter what happens this Sunday. If I was going to lean one way, I guess it would be towards Seattle because their only sports title was won by the Supersonics way back in 1979 and then Oklahoma City stole their team. As a transplanted Annapolitan* who is now a Baltimorean, I can relate . . . to both Seattle and Oklahoma City. (And that might conclude the worst opening to a written work since "Stanley looked quite bored and somewhat detached but then again, Penguins often do.") Anyway, let's get on to picking this sucker.

Here's a Broncos cheerleder.

Two weeks ago I tried to handicap the AFC Championship Game by comparing it to a Super Bowl from 2002 (seemed like a good idea at the time). I was loud wrong but that's the peril of guessing the outcome of a sporting event based on what you thought was a clever writing idea. That form of analysis leads you to believe in somewhat ridiculous notions like coaches can out-scheme far superior personnel and a quarterback who just had the greatest season in NFL history is suddenly going to fall flat on his face because he's afraid of the guys coaching and quarterbacking the other team (and yes, there was part of me that really thought that but then again, there was part of you that thought that too). It serves me right for crawling into bed with Brady and Belichik.

In the NFC game I was just a bit unlucky as Colin Kaepernick and his three 4th quarter turnovers wrecked what was destined to be a game decided by between 1-3 points. Say what you want about Richard Sherman, but if I'm a quarterback playing with the game on the line in the final minute, I'm finding him and then throwing somewhere else. If for no other reason than that is the last guy you want to make the play that beats you. It's the same reason you'd rather walk A-Rod with the bases loaded than give him the chance to hit the walk-off grand slam. It's one thing to lose, it's another thing to lose to THAT GUY.**

But that was all so two weeks ago. In three days we will have arguably the best Super Bowl match-up since 1979 when the 14-2 Steelers faced the 12-4 Cowboys.*** That game also featured the undisputed best team from each conference with one bringing an old school nasty defense and the other one sporting the highest scoring offense in the league. Defense won-out in Super Bowl XIII as the Steelers built a 35-17 lead before holding-on to win 35-31 despite a furious 4th quarter comeback by the scrambling Roger Staubach. So am I now using a Super Bowl that was played over 35 years ago to determine who is going to win this one? Maybe.

OK, then how about a more recent example that actually featured two teams that mirror the current Seahawks and Broncos pretty well. In 1990, the Giants had the best scoring defense in the league and featured a relatively conservative offense that did a great job of taking care of the ball. (Sound familiar?) In the Super Bowl they held the high-powered Bills offense (yes, there was a time when you could say that with a straight face) to 19 points despite the fact that the Bills had scored 95 points in their two playoff games. Even with that great defensive showing, the Giants still needed Scott Norwood to miss a 47 yard field goal on the last play of the game which may be the cruelest fate suffered by any athlete not named Bill Buckner. Chalk-up another close win for the defense.

And here's a Seahawks
cheerleader. Whatever.

I think the blueprint for this Sunday is pretty similar to those two Super Bowls and the result will be the same with the edge going to the defense.**** Just like those games, it's going to be close because the one thing the Broncos defense did well this year was stop the run which means that Russell Wilson is going to have to make some plays. Unfortunately for Denver, they haven't seen a mobile quarterback like him since Terrelle Pryor back in week 4 and Pryor had a pretty solid game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks got two recent looks at Drew Brees in addition to late season games against Matt Ryan and Eli Manning. Peyton Manning is obviously better than all of those guys but he's not that much better than Brees who averaged 24-41 for 228 yards with 1 touchdown and no picks in those two games.

If Manning's stat line looks anything like Brees' average, the Seahawks will win by 10 but I think he's going to do a little better. Something along the lines of 25-41 for 265 yards with 2 touchdowns but I also think he'll throw a pick. Limiting Manning to under 300 yards and 2 touchdowns will be just enough for Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch to get the job done. Congratulations Seattle. Your 35 years of wandering lost through the sports wilderness is about to come to and end.

Seattle - 27 . . . Denver - 24

Last Week's Record: 0-2 . . . Playoff Record: 4-5-1 . . . Season Record: 139-117-4

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com. 

Footnotes

* An "Annapolitan" is someone from Annapolis, Maryland. It is not an Annapolitician as my college roommate from Long Island used to say. Then again, he also used to say "wait on line" instead of "wait in line" and he pronounced "drawer" as "draw" so, in the overall scheme of things, Annapolitician wasn't that annoying.

This is a real painting that A-Rod
had commissioned. I really wish
I was making that up but I'm not.

** For the record, I am pro Richard Sherman. As someone who sacrificed my moral compass years ago for the right to root for Ray Lewis, I am no longer allowed to judge (except when it comes to A-Rod who has entered a whole other dimension of detestability).

*** The '78 Cowboys were the highest scoring team in the league with Roger Staubach and Tony Dorsett while the '78 Steelers had one of the best defenses of all-time thanks to guys like Mean Joe Greene, Jack Lambert and Mel Blount. The two teams featured 13 Hall of Fame players and two Hall of Fame coaches. The game did not disappoint (unless you were a Cowboys fan) and it could have been even better if not for arguably the most critical dropped pass in NFL history. (That clip is worth watching just to hear Curt Gowdy and John Facenda).

**** We can't really look to the wins by the '85 Bears or the '00 Ravens because the offenses and the coaches they played in the Super Bowl were so over-matched. I really have no fan feelings either way for John Fox and Peyton Manning but I certainly respect them enough not to compare them to the General Custer/Hindenburg/New Coke/Titanic/Gigli combos of Raymond Berry/Tony Eason and Jim Fassel/Kerry Collins. In Super Bowl XX, the Patriots' offense had 7 total yards rushing, turned the ball over 6 times and scored 10 points (they actually led the game 3-0 before the Bears scored the next 44 points). The Giants' offense may have outdone them in Super Bowl XXXV, however, with 5 turnovers, 86 yards passing and no offensive points. (The immortal words of Dean Wormer come to mind, "no grade point average . . . all classes, incomplete"). I remember starting to feel sorry for them by the end . . . except for Tiki Barber.

Fantasy Golf: The Waste Management Preview

Let's start this week with a few of points about Tiger's MDF* at the Farmers Insurance Open: (1) I told you not to pick him so if you went against my advice and did it anyway, here's a little something for you . . . hit it Nelson; (2) Tiger hit plenty of bumps like this last year with a first round loss at the Matchplay, a tie for 65th at the Memorial, a tie for 65th at the Deutsche Bank and lousy performances at the U.S. Open and PGA Championship; (3) Tiger won five times in 2013 against top-flight competition; and (4) Tiger has not had a top ten finish in a real tournament since The Barclays in August. What does all of this mean? It means that golf is really f-cking hard that's what it means. I still think Tiger is going to win the Masters and if I ever get around to finishing Part 3 of the Fantasy Golf Report's 2014 Season Preview, I'll prove it to you. Until then, let's look ahead to this week's favorites and picks.  

Uh oh. That doesn't look good.

We're off to the desert for the rollicking good time that is always the Waste Management Phoenix Open.** TPC Scottsdale traditionally favors guys who can bomb the ball and make lots of birdies. (How's that for some good old-fashioned frontier fantasy golf gibberish?) Phil Mickelson has won this thing three times including last year but he's looking a bit like bored and achy Phil right now so let's give him a couple months to regain some interest while we look elsewhere for our 2014 champion.

I'm going with a player out of the Kyle Stanley mode from two years ago - coming in playing well, crushes the ball off the tee and can throw a 62 on the board when he's hot. Billy Horschel gets the slight nod over Graham DeLaet only because the Canadian has not played this course well in the past . . . probably because it's in the middle of a desert and he was born in Saskatchewan and now lives in Boise (which must feel like Cancun to him). Oh yeah, watch-out for Brendan Steele who finished tied for 6th here in 2013 and tied for 5th in 2012. Based on that trend, this year he should finish tied for um . . . give me a second . . . oh screw it. I never was any good at geometry.  

If you don't think I've already started Googling
"Cowgirl on the Beach" for Pebble next week, then I'm
afraid that you just don't know who I am anymore.

The Favorites

1. Phil Mickelson - 12 to 1
2. Webb Simpson - 18-1
3. Keegan Bradley - 25 to 1
4. Ryan Moore - 28 to 1
4. Hunter Mahan - 28 to 1
4. Bubba Watson - 28 to 1
4. Harris English - 28 to 1

FGR One and Done Picks

1. Billy Horschel
2. Graham DeLaet
3. Bubba Watson
4. Charley Hoffman
5. Brendan Steele

At least Bill Haas made the cut on the number last week which is more than I can say for my No. 2 pick Mr. Snedeker who is putting-up early campaign posters for being the bust of 2014. Consider that in the last four years his finishes at Torrey Pines were 2nd, 1st, 9th and 2nd and last week he missed the cut by five shots. I know it's early but every year there are a couple of players who crash-out of the top 20 like Bubba and Rory did in 2013. It certainly doesn't help that Snedeker is more injury prone than Derrick Rose while playing a sport that involves significantly less leaping. Unless of course you're Snedeker who injured his knee when he lost control of a Segway scooter and had to jump-off during a corporate outing in Shanghai back in November. (OK two things: (1) I did not make that up, and (2) I spent an hour trying to come up with a joke that didn't involve a certain stereotype about bad drivers and I couldn't so let's just move on before the FGR gets noticed for all the wrong reasons).

Last Week's FGR Grade: C+

I love what the artist has done
with the use of sepia here.***

1. Bill Haas - T43rd
2. Brandt Snedeker - M/C
3. Graham DeLaet - T2nd
4. Jordan Spieth - T19th
5. Brendon Todd - T37th

The FGR PUD Report

Hyundai: Gary Woodland - $130,000
Sony: Chris Kirk - $604,800
Humana: Charles Howell, III - $12,198
Farmers: Bill Haas - $20,740

Season Total - $767,738

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Footnotes

* "MDF" stands for both "Made Cut but Did Not Finish" and, in the case of Tiger who hit six fairways on Saturday, "My Driver is F-cked."   

** Attendance at the 2013 event was 525,821 or roughly the same number of people who attended one of the coolest concerts in the history of music anytime anywhere when Simon & Garfunkel performed in Central Park. If I could go back in time and find my way to a good seat for any show in history, that would certainly be in the top five along with The Last Waltz featuring The Band and numerous others such as Bob Dylan, Neil Young, Eric Clapton and Van Morrison at The Winterland Ballroom in 1976. I would highly recommend spending a little time watching both concerts on Youtube but here are a couple of my personal favorites with The Boxer by Simon and Garfunkel and Van Morrison performing Caravan with The Band (do you get the impression that Van doesn't want to leave the stage? "JUST A ONE MORE TIME . . . . JUST A ONE MORE TIME!!!"). Boy, that footnote escalated quickly.     

*** I have no idea what in the hell I'm talking about.

Fantasy Golf: The Farmers Insurance Open Preview

After three weeks of soup and salad and whatever you want to call that part of the meal the Tour put-on in the fall,* it's time to get down to business with the crab balls and clams casino that is the Farmers Insurance Open where we have an "A" list field playing on a major caliber course. This week we welcome back the likes of Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Hunter Mahan, Jason Day and Bubba Watson. If you want a 50/50 shot of picking-up a first place check, then by all means burn Tiger this week because, with the exception of Firestone Country Club and the parking lot at 12559 Highway 535 in Orlando, Tiger dominates Torey Pines like no other venue (HEYOOOOO!!!).

Last year I had Nick Watney dialed-up for this event but then switched to Bubba at the last minute only to watch in horror** as Bubba pulled-out on Thursday morning with some lame illness and Watney finished tied for 4th. As it turned-out, that would set the tone for my entire failed season. So I'm avoiding Bubba this week even though he's playing fairly well and has a solid track record at the Farmers including a win in 2011. (Just thought I should let you know that it's personal with me and Bubba this week). 

The Farmers Favorites

It's always a good day at the FGR
when the Welkers make the Super Bowl.

1. Tiger Woods - 5 to 2
2. Phil Mickelson - 12 to 1
3. Brandt Snedeker - 22 to 1
4. Bill Haas - 25 to 1
5. Jordan Spieth - 28 to 1

The FGR One and Done Picks

1. Bill Haas
2. Brandt Snedeker
3. Graham DeLaet
4. Jordan Spieth
5. Brendon Todd

Last Week's FGR Grade: C+

1. Charles Howell, III - T58th
2. Brian Stuard - 5th
3. Kevin Chappell - T58th
4. Gary Woodland - T38th
5. Brendon Todd - T6th

Obviously that's a bit of a whiff on the top pick but I do believe that someone writing for this website who looks a lot like me told you to take a good hard look at the guys in the 2nd, 3rd and 5th spots. Is it my fault that you couldn't guess which ones? Do I have to do freakin' everything around here? Is it not enough that I do the research, write the content, occasionally proofread it and find tasteful new artwork that is at least tangentially related to the subject matter that will keep the Ukrainian readers coming back? I have to put the right guy in the top spot every week? Well excuuuuse me for not being perfect. (Sorry, but I'm still bitter about botching both NFL Conference Championship Game picks . . . Kapernick . . . ass hat).  

I feel ya Jim.

The FGR PUD*** Report

Hyundai: Gary Woodland - $130,000
Sony: Chris Kirk - $604,800
Humana: Charles Howell, III - $12,198

Season Total: $746,998

Email the FGR at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Endnotes

* In this analogy, the Tour's half-assed attempt to legitimize the post Tour Championship events would be the part of the dinner where you're standing outside of an Outback Steakhouse waiting for your beeper to start buzzing so you know you're table is ready while everyone else, who you could swear got there after you, gets seated and then you approach the hostess in a manner that you think is docile and friendly but is really more like Ben Kingsley in Sexy Beast and the next thing you know you're wife is pulling your arm and saying, "come on, let's just go to Five Guys and get a cheeseburger." (That's not just me right? By the way, I thought about using Applebee's for this but has anyone ever actually had to wait for a table at an Applebee's? . . . and there goes the Applebee's sponsorship).

** I know "horror" might seem excessive but I'm not sure how else to describe that moment on Thursday when you scan the leaderboard for your pick and he's not there . . . he's just not f-cking there man!

*** "Picked Up to Date."

The FGR Conference Championship Picks

Before we get to this weekend's picks, I can't let the hiring of the most recently doomed Reskins' head coach to pass without comment. As I have alluded to in the past, I work deep in the heart of Redskins' country and have had the opportunity to transact some business with the organization. Based on those dealings, it never surprises me when the rock rolls back over them after it looks like they might finally get it to the top of the hill* (like it appeared they may have done in RG, III's rookie season). There are two paths to the Super Bowl and, at this point, the Redskins don't appear to be on either one: (1) find a Hall of Fame quarterback like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Peyton Manning and/or (2) build a strong well-run organization and hire a competent coach (Ravens, Steelers, Giants, Seahawks and 49ers). If you can do number 2 and add a top ten quarterback like it appears the Seahawks and 49ers have done, then you'll be in contention for the long haul.

On the other end of the spectrum you have the teams that have (1) committed themselves to a quarterback who is not going to get them over the top like Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford and Andy Dalton and/or (2) built an organization that is somehow fundamentally flawed like the Lions, Browns, Bills, Raiders and Jaguars. For whatever reason, these teams just can't get out of their own way despite the fact that the NFL is structured so that even the dregs of the league should find windows of short term success. The Redskins have been one of these teams since Dan Snyder bought them and the fact that Snickers could build a "you're not you when you're hungry" commercial around the diva that is RG, III means that their fortunes are not going to change anytime soon.

"Hey Robert, how's my favorite awesome
superstar quarterback today? How about
dinner and cigars at the Palm tonight?"

Let's take a look at the inevitable sit-down that this latest move is going to end with in three years when Jon Gruden arrives in Washington to figure-out what in the hell is going on with Dan Snyder and his brother.

Snyder: You think I run a sloppy organization Jon?

Jon: [Shakes his head] You're unlucky.

Snyder: You goddamn Grudens, you make me laugh. I do you a favor and take Jay in when the Bengals offense crapped the bed in another playoff game and you're all over ESPN bashing my team.

Jon: You took Jay in because no one else wanted to coach your team. Now we're talking business. Let's talk business.

Snyder: Yeah, let's talk business Jon. First of all, you're all done. Monday Night Football don't even have that kind of audience anymore. Your schedule is weak, right? You're getting chased out of primetime by NBC with Sunday night football and the NFL Network on Thursday night. What do you think is going on here?

Jon: Is that why you slapped my brother around in public?

Jay: Aw, now that, that was nothin' Jon. Dan didn't mean nothin' by that. Yeah, sure he flies off the handle every once in a while, but me and him, we're good friends, right Dan?

Snyder: I got a football team to run. I gotta kick asses sometimes to make it run right. We had a little argument, Jay and me, so I had to straighten him out.

Jon: You straightened my brother out?

Snyder: He was calling screen passes two at a time. We couldn't make a first down. What's the matter with you?

Jon: I leave for Green Bay tomorrow, think about a buyout price for the end of my brother's contract.

Snyder: Sonofabitch! Do you know who I am? I'm Dan Snyder! I made my bones when you were coaching wide receivers at Southeast Missouri State.**

And we all know where it goes for Dan Snyder from there. (He may want to post a guard outside the massage room). Let's get on to picking some games between teams that actually know what they're doing.

At Denver by 5 over New England: The Pick - Patriots

Isn't this a repeat of Super Bowl XXVI when the Patriots were 14 point underdogs to the Greatest Show on Turf Rams and beat them 20-17? The Rams had four Hall of Fame caliber players at all four skill positions that year with Kurt Warner (MVP), Marshall Faulk (Offensive Player of the Year), Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt (along with crazy fast Az-Zahir Hakim as their third receiver).*** The Patriots countered with Tom Brady (in his second year), Antowain Smith, Troy Brown and David Patten. The defenses were a wash as the Patriots finished 6th in scoring defense (272 points) and the Rams finished 7th (273 points). Oh yeah, the game was played in the Superdome and the 2001-02 Rams may have been the best dome team of all-time.

So the Rams had a massive edge in quarterback experience, offensive weapons and field conditions while the Patriots had the edge in coaching and kicking (Adam Vinateri). Fast forward to 2014 where the Broncos feature a massive edge in receiving weapons and . . . and what? Certainly not quarterback, running back or coaching. Maybe on defense but while people are going on and on about how depleted the Patriots are, they seem to forget that the Broncos lost Von Miller who might be the best pass rusher in football and that the Broncos were 22nd in points allowed this year at almost 25 per game while the Patriots were 10th at 21.1. (Sorry this is so dry but I spent much of the day moving furniture so my life is devoid of humor at the moment).

Amber Heard - No. 58 on
the Maxim Hot 100 List . . .
(See what I did there?)

I think it all changed for the Patriots after the Miami game in Week 15 (a 24-20 loss) when Belichik looked at Tom Brady's 55 passes and thought, "what in the f-ck are we doing?" In the three games since, Tom Brady hasn't thrown more than 26 passes while the Patriots have averaged 41 carries for 214 yards and 3.3 touchdowns. Those are 1983 Nebraska Cornhusker stats. Yeah Tom Brady is dealing with somewhat limited receiving weapons but do you really want to put eight men in the box against him? (The answer would be "no"). Ironically, it was the sudden discovery of a running game that helped propel Peyton Manning to his only Super Bowl win with the 2005-06 Colts. This year I see that formula crushing his dream of another one. Patriots - 31 . . . Broncos - 27. (Combined score of 58).

At Seattle by 3.5 over San Francisco: The Pick - 49ers

That half point scares the crap out of me. The over/under is only 38.5 which means Vegas is expecting something in the 20-17 range so you take the points right? If I had to pick a winner, it would be Seattle because I just have a feeling that Russell Wilson and that crowd are going to will them to victory but I could just as easily see a 49er team that is tired of getting thrashed at CenturyLink Field make enough plays to pull-out a win. If nothing else, they might do it because they know that losing a game of this magnitude to his most hated rival might cause Jim Harbaugh to produce a 1,000 page playbook that says nothing but "All Pete Carroll and no Super Bowl makes Jim a dull boy" over and over and over again. Actually, I can totally see that happening so let's go with a final score of Seahawks - 17 . . . 49ers - 16.   

Last Week's Record: 3-1
Playoff Record: 4-3-1
Season Record: 139-115-4

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Endnotes

Sarah Shahi - No. 33.

* This is of course a reference to Sisyphus, the king of Ephyra who, according to Greek mythology, was sentenced to an eternity of pushing a boulder up a hill only to have it roll back down before it reached the top. Cut to the fans in Cleveland, Detroit and Cincinnati nodding unconsciously and semi-psychotically.

** If you've never seen The Godfather and have no idea what in the hell I'm talking about, check-out this epic scene. If that doesn't make you want to see the rest of the movie, then it's probably not right for you anyway.

** The Rams led the league with 503 points that year. The Colts were second with 413. The Bengals scored 226. So you see Bengals fans, even though you know you're getting at most one playoff game every year, it could be (and has been) worse.