The FGR Week 5 NFL Picks (Part 1)

Writing the Fantasy Golf Report has been kind of a grind lately to the point where I actually thought that it might be time to take a sabbatical (assuming you can technically take a sabbatical from an unpaid hobby). And then it dawned on me as I was making my first swipe at the Week 5 picks on Monday afternoon* that I've started wandering off course by foolishly trying to actually write about the topics I'm writing about (stay with me). I mean who in the hell wants my take on which NFL teams are good this year? I just re-read the somewhat bland Week 4 picks and I can assure you that I don't.

"OK, I'm listening."

So we're going to get back to what the FGR does best which is recounting self-deprecating and self-aggrandizing tales about myself. We do, however, have one problem with that plan this week (notice that I make this "our" problem). I haven't done much worth writing about lately other than an event I participated in over a week ago that's kind of languishing off in a separate post that currently has about as much momentum as the Eli Manning/Joe Flacco "elite" quarterback debate. With that limitation in mind, let's give the Seinfeld formula a shot and see if we can make something out of nothing. Without further ado, I bring you The FGR: A Saturday Without Golf or Alcohol.**

9:45 a.m.: I kicked-off the day by attending my six year old daughter's soccer game. At that age, they generally play 4 v.4 or 5 v. 5 and the rule of thumb is that if you have two kids who understand the object of the game, you win. Unfortunately for the opponents of my daughter's team, her squad is apparently comprised entirely of girls who spent the last three years getting pushed around in the back yard by their older brothers and now it's payback time. I don't think they could have scored faster or more often if the opposing coach had blown the whistle and then immediately thrown the ball into his own team's goal. The two best parts of this experience for me are: (1) I was the coach on the wrong end of these beatdowns six years ago so I've earned this and (2) I am not coaching this team so I don't have to worry about the sportsmanship implications when the score hits 6-0. I can just stand on the sideline while smugly pretending to be happy for the girls on the other team when they actually get a foot on the ball. The words "patronizing clap" come to mind.

10:45 a.m.: I spent about the next hour hovering over FGK1, pretending to make sure he got some homework done while resisting the urge to say, "sucks to be you dude" and "really, is there a bigger waste of time than 7th grade homework?" I mean looking back, wouldn't the play have been to almost fail-out of school from 7th-10th grade and then make a miraculous comeback in 11th-12th. Then conjure-up some bullshit adversity story like you ran into problems with model airplane glue that you had to overcome. Throw that into your application essay, add a few oboe lessons and some rudimentary fencing skills and you're an Ivy League lock right?

12:30 p.m.: The FGW took FGK 1 and 3 to the steeplechase (this is actually not as snooty as it sounds . . . t's snootier) and FGK2 was out birthday shopping with his grandparents so I had exactly two hours of free time which is also known as that netherworld of having just not quite enough time to play nine holes of golf. So I went and got a new propane tank for the grill, swam some laps at the indoor pool, ate lunch while watching twenty minutes of Friday Night Lights (a movie that literally has every storyline end sadly yet I still can't stop watching it) and then just barely caught myself before I dozed-off and missed FGK2's soccer game. (Empty house + couch + turkey sandwich + re-watched movie = ZZZzzzzz).

3:00 p.m.: I should have stayed on the couch. FGK2's team took the field with the enthusiasm of a bunch coal miners climbing onto the elevator the day after a cave-in and then it went downhill from there. The only thing worse from a coaching perspective than having an unmotivated team line-up against a more talented opponent is when your team is made-up of nine and ten years olds which kind of limits your ability to pull a Coach Dale from Hoosiers. In fact, I think you could scream, "maybe they were right about us . . . maybe we don't belong up here" at a bunch of ten year old boys and they'd look at you like "yeah, they probably were right about us ass-hat but you scheduled these all-stars . . . can we go home now?"

"I need more crossbar baby."

4:00 p.m. The final score was 6-0 and we were lucky that hitting posts and crossbars didn't count because the other team was ringing shots off them like they were recording an acoustic version of Don't Fear the Reaper. By the time the barrage was over, our goalie looked like Michael Douglas at the end of The Game. To make matters worse, there were no post-game snacks to ease the pain, not even a freakin' orange slice. We should have taken the kids to McDonalds like the losers in the commercials do but my day was far from over and a Big Mac sitting in my gut was the last thing I needed at that point.

To be continued . . . on to the Thursday night pick.

At Cleveland by 4.5 over Buffalo: The Pick - Cleveland

If the Browns and the Bills play a Thursday night game in October and no one watches it, will it really have happened? Clearly this is the NFL's way of killing two birds with one stone by satisfying the "everyone gets at least one night game requirement" for two of its most unwatchable teams in one shot. It's no coincidence that this game is up against the start of the baseball playoffs and the season premieres of about a dozen shows including NBC's latest attempt to reclaim Thursday nights by trotting-out actors who haven't been funny in ten years (Sean Saves the World and the Michael J. Fox Show? Really?).*** I think Brad Nessler and Mike Mayock are contractually allowed to bail on this game if there's no score at halftime and hand the microphones to recently indicted Cleveland morning DJ's Rover and Toomey. At least that would get me to watch.

As for the game itself, Billy Cundiff is apparently the only guy who got the tanking memo as he missed 37 and 49 yard field goals last Sunday that were both more painful to watch than the Boom Goes the Dynamite guy (when a total lack of preparation meets opportunity . . . this never gets old). Who else but the Browns would torment their fans by signing a kicker who is still scarred from missing a 32 yard field goal that cost his team a chance to go to the Super Bowl? Even with that baggage, I like the Browns to keep their failed tanking mission going for at least the next two weeks against the Bills and the Lions which should be just long enough to get the hopes of some fans up before they drop them like a watermelon from a tenth floor window.  

Last Week's Record: 8-6-1 . . . Season Record: 35-26-1

Email the FGR here.

Endnotes

* I like to write down the lines and make one pass through the picks on Monday while what I saw on Sunday is still fresh. There are usually about six games that jump out at me as only having one possible outcome. In this week's case, my picks for those games are the Browns, Colts, Packers, Chargers, Broncos, 49ers and Falcons. The knee-jerk reaction is usually a result of having Peyton Manning on one side of the match-up or Matt "Two for Us - One for You" Schaub on the other. Wait, I'm trying to analyze games again aren't I . . . sorry.

This game is brutal.
Switch it back over to
 The Vampire Diaries.

** The same could not be said of last Thursday when I went to play golf and officially started soliciting designated drivers at around 4:15 p.m. I'd write about that experience but frankly, I don't remember much about it other than (a) I started laughing as I tried to address my final tee shot which I promptly hit about 40 yards with what I believe was a 5-iron and (b) there was a post-round dinner attended by about 100 guys in blue blazers where a raffle for prizes was held and every time someone stood-up with a winning ticket I yelled "BINGO!!!" The next thing I knew, I had been ushered outside by the putting green where I pretended to smoke cigarettes which is kind of like me pretending to make balloon animals only with more coughing and more wasted cigarettes.

*** You know you're reaching when you use the actor's name in the title of the show. I'm not sure this has worked since the days of Bob Newhart and Mary Tyler Moore but give NBC credit for trying anything and everything. I'm sure The Wacky Adventures of Todd Bridges can't be far behind.

The FGR Week 4 NFL Picks

We'll get to the FedEx Cup Playoffs wrap-up later but now it's time to pay some attention to the FGR's second child, the NFL. After three weeks, I think we're starting to get a handle on this thing. For the first time since parity began reigning, it seems that the league can be divided into two categories: (1) Teams that have their shit together and (2) Teams that don't have their shit together (to avoid the ongoing crass use of profanity, we will employ the acronyms "HTST" and "DHTST" . . . did you ever notice how obsessed the FGR is with acronyms?). Games that match HTST teams against DHTST teams have become easy to predict like last week's Seattle-Jacksonville game. The tough games are the ones between two HTST teams like Ravens-Texans or two DHTST teams like Jets-Bills. There are also a couple of borderline teams like the Lions and the Titans who have not established their identities yet so their HTST status will have to be evaluated on a week to week basis until we get more evidence.

Based on this latest cockamamie theory, let's try an experiment this week. We're going to label every team as either a HTST team or a DHTST team and in any game that matches one against the other, we're going to ignore the spread and pick the HTST team under the theory that teams that DHTST are going to get hammered in more than half of their games against teams that HTST. When two similarly categorized teams are playing each other like the Drek Bowl between the Steelers and Vikings over in London, we'll go with our gut.

San Francisco (HTST) by 3 over St. Louis (DHTST): The Pick - 49ers

Sorry Sam. Not the best
week to draw the Niners.

In his MMQB column this week, Peter King wrote, "year too early on the Rams optimism." A year too early? Doesn't that statement pretty much cover the entire Sam Bradford era? I know RG, III is off right now but I still say the Rams trading away the chance to draft him was one of the most underrated gaffs of all-time. And if I was doing a suicide pool, I would be very tempted to take the 49ers this week despite the 3 point spread. Patrick Willis is going to pull a Forrest Whitaker and play like Rams fans trashed his car. 

Minnesota (DHTST) Pick 'em v. Pittsburgh (DHTST): The Pick - Steelers

In the 60's, England gave us the Beatles, the Who and Led Zeppelin and we've been repaying them over the years with crap like Hall & Oates, Styx and the Eagles. Now they give us the English Premier League and we repay them by sending over one of the five most unwatchable NFL games of the season every year. This year may be the worst as they're getting the marquee DHTST game of the week. We're apparently having a hard time letting that whole taxation without representation thing go.    

Baltimore (HTST) by 3.5 over Buffalo (DHTST): The Pick - Ravens

By now you've probably heard that Jacoby Jones had a champagne bottle smashed over his head by a stripper while riding in a party bus at 3:00 a.m. last weekend. Ray Lewis has attributed this incident to the leadership void created by his retirement. OK two things: (1) If you've never had a champagne bottle smashed over your head by a stripper, then you're just not partying hard enough and (2) Ray Lewis found himself in an almost identical situation many years ago only instead of a punchline, the story yielded a murder and a conviction for obstruction of justice. People in glass houses should not throw stones and, in Ray's case, people in paper houses should not shoot flamethrowers.

"NO CHAMPAGNE BOTTLE FORMED
AGAINST US SHALL PROSPER!!!

Cincinnati (HTST) by 5 over Cleveland (DHTST): The Pick - Bengals

Let's not get too carried away with the Browns latest version of Derek Anderson or Kelly Holcombe. This is Cleveland. Brian Hoyer is going to find a way to win just enough games to screw them out of a franchise quarterback in the draft.

Indianapolis (HTST) by 8.5 over Jacksonville (DHTST): The Pick - Colts

I don't know this for a fact but I am 99.9% sure that no NFL team has ever gone an entire season without covering a spread. The Jags are currently 0-3 against the number and if they're ever going to break that streak, it's going to be at home against a divisional opponent that is coming-off of an emotional road win right? Before I went with the HTST v. DHTST theme, I picked the Jags to cover based on this theory. Now it looks like we'll have to hold-off until they play the Browns in the "Bridgewater Bowl" on December 1st.

Seattle (HTST) by 3 over Houston (HTST): The Pick - Seahawks

The Texans are barely a HTST team right now. Ron Jaworski noted last week that Matt Schaub always makes one or two plays a game that the rest of the team has to overcome and there he was, right on cue, throwing his third pick-six of the season against the Ravens last Sunday. The Seahawks on the other hand are just plain mean and nasty like the guy in high school who would threaten to kick your ass just because you tripped over his backpack. I could see them winning this game by 20.

Tampa Bay (DHTST) by 3 over Arizona (DHTST): The Pick - Cardinals

I still think that the Cardinals might HTST but I know without any question that the Bucs do not in anyway HTST to the point that they may make a run at outsucking the Jags. They might as well just cut to the chase and let Greg Schiano go coach the University of Texas or Nebraska right now.

"I hate you headset . . . I hate you,
I hate you . . . asshole headset!"

Detroit (DHTST) by 3 over Chicago (HTST): The Pick - Bears

I was ready to give the Lions the benefit of the doubt and grant them HTST status but I can't get the image of Jim Schwartz throwing down his headset after the win against the Redskins on Sunday. It's a fine line in the coaching business between controlled rage and an anger management problem. Schwartz appears to be on the wrong side of that line . . . and nowhere near it.

Kansas City (HTST) by 4 over N.Y. Giants (DHTST): The Pick - Chiefs

No team at this point has TST less than the Giants. On the other hand, Andy Reid appears to have taken a franchise that didn't even know where TS was and gotten it together almost overnight. Speaking of Reid, his new bright red Chief's duds make him look an awful lot like Violet Beauregard from Willy Wonka only if her name had been Rose or Tomato.

Tennessee (HTST) by 4.5 over N.Y. Jets (DHTST): The Pick - Titans

If the Jets pull this one out, we'll temporarily remove the "D" from their acronym but wins over the Bills and Bucs in no way prove that a team HTST especially when they committed 20 penalties last week and their quarterback has thrown twice as many interceptions as touchdown passes. However, anything that makes a Jet fan more indignant about the public perception of his favorite team is a good thing so let's hope this builds for a couple more weeks before crashing into the inevitable 5-11 season.

Dallas (HTST) by 2 over San Diego (DHTST): The Pick - Cowboys

I know this is hard to believe but there is every indication that the Cowboys may finally HTST. I know it's only September and Jerry Jones hasn't fired-up the nuclear reactor on his tanning bed yet but, in light of their NFC East competition, the Cowboys may clinch before they have a chance to start gagging in December.

Washington (DHTST) by 3 over Oakland (DHTST): The Pick - Redskins

This one is tough for the Raiders because, by their standards, they actually appear to HTST but it's all relative as that only yields a 6-10 season in Oakland. I can tell you from personal experience that Redskin fans have already quit on the season representing the most precipitous drop from unbridled optimism to unrelenting pessimism since the 2013 Washington Nationals.

Denver (HTST) by 10.5 over Philadelphia (DHTST): The Pick - Broncos

A team can't just HTST on one side of the ball like the Eagles apparently do (even though I'm not convinced that losing the time of possession battle 2 to 1 every week is a recipe for success). Peyton Manning has thrown 13 touchdown passes and no interceptions against two respectable defenses and the Giants this season. What's he going to do with 40 minutes of possession time against the sieve that is the Eagles secondary? Considering the 10.5 point spread and the 58 point over/under, we're looking at 500 yards and 5 touchdown passes minimum.

Atlanta (HTST) by 1.5 over New England (DHTST): The Pick - Falcons

"You know I die a horrible death right?"

I'm sorry, but wins over the Bills, Jets and Bucs do not mean that the Patriots HTST. Fortunately, their next five games are at Falcons, at Bengals, Saints, at Jets, Dolphins and they still have to play the Broncos, Texans and Ravens. Let's get Moe Greene's take on the matter: "Yeah, let's talk football Tom. First of all, you're all done. The Patriots don't even have that kind of muscle anymore. The Gronk is injured right? You're getting chased out of the AFC by the Broncos and the other teams."  

New Orleans (HTST) by 6.5 over Miami (HTST): The Pick - Saints

The Seahawks and the Broncos have been so splashy this year that we've kind of failed to notice that the Saints really HTST. If Drew Brees' team has a defense that is going to continue to allow less than 13 points per game, just hand them one of the two byes right now. On the other side, the Dolphins have strung together two quality wins in a row and Ryan Tannehill's passer rating is 94.3. If this keeps up, we could be looking at a lot of Mrs. Tannehill this season which is a good thing.

Now I'm going to play golf. Good day.  

Last Week's Record: 10-6 . . . Season Record: 27-20-1

The FGR Week 3 Fantasy Team

Another solid week for the non-existent FGR fantasy squad thanks to an old-fashioned Ed Reed style performance from the Ravens' defense bailing-out an utter no-show by the receivers. Things are looking good as long as Matthew Stafford stays healthy (can't believe I just said that out loud).

Two Defensive/ST scores and the
cheerleaders were rockin' the Daisy
Dukes to boot. Charm City indeed.

Matthew Stafford - 24
LeSean McCoy - 24

Bernard Pierce - 12

Randall Cobb - 5
Marques Colston - 7
Jason Witten - 6
Ravens - 27
Jay Feely - 1

Total - 106

Bench

Eli Manning - 3
Chris Johnson - 9
Shonn Greene - 0
Knowshon Moreno - 3
T.Y. Hilton - 1
Julian Edelman - 4
Alshon Jeffrey - 5

Endnotes

* No endnotes this week meaning I didn't have a single random tangential thought (which is mildly disconcerting) so here's one. You know how we're always complaining that old people drive too slowly. Well just imagine the alternative and be thankful.

Email the FGR here.

The FGR Week 3 NFL Picks

Inspire me God's Linebacker.
Please. I beseech you.

The NFL picks are not going to get their due again this week and believe me when I tell you that I feel worse than that kid from the Cobra Kai who was ordered to take Daniel's knee out on purpose. (I am literally crying and apologizing while cradling the computer right now). I promise, however, that the FGR will come back strong next week following Ray Lewis's induction into the Ravens' Ring of Honor at halftime on Sunday. If that day doesn't yield some writing material, then it might be time to hang-up the keyboard and/or start smoking Peyote.

We would, however, be remiss if we didn't at least address the major story of the week which was the Browns shipping last year's first round pick, Trent Richardson, to the Colts for a 2014 first round pick. I was hoping to get this out before Bill Simmons wrote 3,000 words on it because it's basically his research that I'm stealing but I didn't so consider this a summary for my seven readers who don't also follow the Sports Guy. The Browns have become the first NFL team to openly embrace the formula for turning around a franchise that NBA teams have been following for years. All you do is simply trade one of your five best players for a future first round pick and in the process you successfully (a) gain a more tradeable asset for moving-up in the next draft and (b) decrease your current chance of winning thereby improving the first round pick you already own. And yes, the Browns did actually have room for unimprovement.

It's a brilliant strategy and it could land them Teddy Bridgewater but there's one problem. I don't think anyone can outsuck* Jacksonville this year. We're only two games in and we can already look at the schedule and determine that they basically have three shots at a win this year (at Cleveland, home against Buffalo and home against Tennessee). You've clearly hit rock bottom as an NFL franchise when (a) you're a 19.5 point underdog and (b) the crawl on one of your CBS affiliates (Orlando) states the following (and I did not make this up): "In accordance with NFL policy, WKMG must carry all Jacksonville Jaguars away games. We apologize for any inconvenience."** As a former resident of the city that was once denied a franchise in favor of Jacksonville when Commissioner Paul Tagliabue said we'd be better off spending the money to build a library, all I have to say is that you don't fuck with the City the Reads because we already have almost as many libraries as methadone clinics so burn on you Tags.    

Here come the picks. The FGR finished strong last week and then nailed the Thursday night game so we're like a can of Schlitz on a fat guy's gut cause we're on a roll.

Tennessee by 3 over San Diego: The Pick - Chargers

Minnesota by 6.5 over Cleveland: The Pick - Vikings

New England by 7 over Tampa Bay: The Pick - Patriots

Houston by 2.5 over Baltimore: The Pick - Ravens (for Ray)

Dallas by 3.5 over St. Louis: The Pick - Cowboys

New Orleans by 7.5 over Arizona: The Pick - Cardinals

Washington by 1 over Detroit: The Pick - Lions

Green Bay by 2 over Cincinnati: The Pick - Packers

N.Y. Giants by 1.5 over Carolina: The Pick - Giants

Miami by 2 over Atlanta: The Pick - Dolphins

San Francisco by 10 over Indianapolis: The Pick - Colts

Seattle by 19.5 over Jacksonville: The Pick - Seahawks***

N.Y. Jets by 2.5 over Buffalo: The Pick - Bills

Chicago by 2.5 over Pittsburgh: The Pick - Bears

Denver by 14.5 over Oakland: The Pick - Broncos

Last Week's Record: 10-6 . . . . Overall Record: 17-14-1

The FGR Fantasy Squad: Week 2

The LeSean McCoy and Randall Cobb picks are looking like genius right now but we're feeling even better about our bench at this point. Bernard Pierce would get the start over Chris Johnson this week and, if not for the brutal 49er match-up, T.Y. Hilton would probably be in there as well. Julian Edelman is PPR league gold as he might become the first receiver in NFL history with 150 catches and he might not reach 800 yards doing it. By the way, when do the Patriots play their first game against an NFL team? I know Roger Goodell is Robert Kraft's lackey but opening the season with the Bills, Jets and Bucs seems a little over the top.

Chip Kelly's new offense and
the Eagles have been very
good to the FGR this year.

Matthew Stafford - 17
LeSean McCoy - 19
Chris Johnson - 9
Randall Cobb - 21
Marques Colston - 6
Jason Witten - 1
Ravens - 15
Jay Feely - 13

Total - 101

Bench

Eli Manning - 13
Bernard Pierce - 11
Shonn Greene - 0
Knowshon Moreno - 22
T.Y. Hilton - 15
Julian Edelman - 7
Alshon Jeffrey - 4

Endnotes

* I've already copywrighted "outsuck" so don't even try it.

"I don't care if you're not a
jaguar. Close enough."

** You know there were a handful of poor bastards who spent last Sunday shepherding their entire extended family around Disney World with their one beacon of hope being that when it was over, they could slump into their hotel room beds and watch the Manning Bowl only to discover they were getting Jags-Raiders instead. Over/under on the number of times the phrase "daddy's at the bar" was uttered in Orlando that night: 1,732.5.

*** I know this a huge number but don't forget two things: (a) Pete Carroll spent a lot of time in college running-up the score and (b) Pete Carroll has no conscience.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.

The FGR Thursday Night Pick

Philadelphia by 3 over Kansas City: The Pick - Chiefs

Holy something to prove game. We've got Andy Reid returning to Philly, Alex Smith trying to lead his new team to 3-0, Chip Kelly trying to prove that he's not just a less entertaining version of Steve Spurrier and Riley Cooper/Cary Williams trying to show that we all can in fact just get along (actually, I don't think Cary Williams cares whether we get along or not). As for the match-up tonight, here is what we know after two games: (1) the Eagles defense is suspect and (2) the Chiefs look like at least a 9-7 team that is going to be in every game thanks to Smith's efficiency and a solid defense. We also know that when Andy Reid gives a crap (unlike his last two years in Philly), he is probably one of the seven or eight best coaches in football.* I'm taking the tortoise and the points over the hare in this one.

Endnotes

"I take great umbrage with
your insinuation sir."

* I would put both Harbaugh brothers, Sean Payton, Mike McCarthy, John Fox, Tom Coughlin and Mike Tomlin ahead of Reid. Notice I didn't have Bill Belichick in there. I think it's becoming clear that there were about a dozen coaches who could have won with Tom Brady. Since 2005, the Patriots' season has ended with losses to the following coaches: Coughlin (2), John Harbaugh (2), Rex Ryan, Tony Dungy and Mike Shanahan. That includes three home playoff losses in the last four years. The only people who still think Belichick is a top five coach pronounce it "chowdah."