The Week 9 NFL Picks

After it looked like things might get back on track, it all went south again last week with a 6-8 record highlighted by the Cowboys six turnover fiasco against the Giants and the Packers doing everything possible not to cover against the Jags including attempting a fake field goal where they showed they were going to fake the field goal long enough for the Jags to set-up their defense . . . and then faked it anyway. Needless to say it failed and now that play stands as the poster child for my 2012 NFL picks. Let's ride that positive energy into the Week 9 picks.

Denver by 3.5 over Cincinnati: The Pick - Broncos

Peyton Manning is hitting his stride and the Bengals are regressing. Eventually defenses were going to figure out that A.J. Green is the whole offense and shut him down like the Steelers did last week. At least that was the theory I was operating under when I traded him. Expect A.J. to throw-up a line of 10-165-2 today. (Crap).

Green Bay by 10 over Arizona: The Pick - Packers

The Cardinals 4-0 mirage has dissolved into an 0-4 run during which they are averaging 9 points per game. The Packers have been trending in the other direction averaging 30+ in their last five games. Based on my current record, I should probably stop making these picks based on trends but I just can't see John Skelton keeping the Cards in the game against Aaron Rodgers (you mean the way Blaine Gabbert kept the Jags in the game against him last week? . . . oh shut up).

Miami by 2.5 over Indianapolis: The Pick - Dolphins

"That's why the guys in my car
club call me 'The Cruiser.'"

All you need to know about the 2012 AFC is that at least one of these two teams is probably going to make the playoffs. I know Tennehill is probably going to start but I actually like the Dolphins with Matt Moore under center as a grind it out defensive minded team winning games 17-13 and finishing 10-6. At least Moore knows what teams are in their division - (Good Thing This Wasn't on the Wonderlic). The Colts are looking more like 8-8 with two games left against the Texans plus road trips to New England and Detroit.

Baltimore by 3.5 over Cleveland: The Pick - Ravens

The Ravens are right about where they always are after seven games. Banged-up, underrated and on pace to make the playoffs. Cam Cameron is up to his old shenanigans as Ray Rice is averaging 15 carries per game despite the fact that he has the 4th highest yards per carry of any running back in the top twelve rushing leaders. By comparison, Arian Foster is averaging 24 carries per game and, at their current rates, Foster will finish with 384 carries to Rice's 242. I'm going to continue to defer to the judgement of Cameron, however, as he is the offensive "guru."*

Houston by 10 over Buffalo: The Pick - Bills

I'm not sold on the Texans yet. Sure all of the pieces are there, but at this point their most impressive win was a home blowout of the Ravens the week after Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb went down for the season. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are finally both healthy again and, if Mario Williams is ever going to wake-up and start earning some of that ridiculous $96M the Bills are paying him, you would figure it would be in his homecoming game.

(Up against the deadline so we're going to rapid fire these last few picks).

Washington by 3.5 over Carolina: The Pick - Panthers

I was going to write something like, "it's Cam Newton versus Cam Newton 2.0" but that is so freakin' cheesy that I'm going to leave it for the Fox pregame show. I like the Panthers' underrated D to at least keep this one close.

Seattle by 4 over Minnesota: The Pick - Seahawks

In addition to the crowd noise,
every Seahawk player apparently
has his own "Locker Buddy."

I'm taking the Seahawks at home with any reasonable number for the rest of the season. Qwest field is rapidly approaching Jake Delhomme status as a gambling factor (and that's saying something). 

Detroit by 3.5 over Jacksonville: The Pick - Lions

The Jags' best player is injured and they're on a collision course for the #1 pick in the draft one year after Andrew Luck and RG, III were available. On the bright side, Cleveland fans finally have someone to look down on.

Chicago by 3.5 over Tennessee: The Pick - Bears

Tough to take the Bears and give points these days as Jay Cutler has gone into Motor Vehicle Administration Lifetime Employee Survivor Mode ("MVALESM") where he's doing just enough to keep getting promoted. Lucky for him, that defense is in the groove right now and I see a 12 carry 23 yard afternoon beatdown for Chris Johnson.

Oakland by 1.5 over Tampa Bay: The Pick - Bucs

The Bucs are still being underrated as they now have a flashy running back, a solid "B" quarterback and a stingy defense. Meanwhile the Raiders are coming off of uninspiring wins against the Jags and Chiefs who are a combined 2-13. Despite my pick, I'm rooting for the Raiders in this one so we can watch Raider Nation's reaction to the Bucs crashing the "V" formation.

N.Y. Giants by 3.5 over Pittsburgh: The Pick - Steelers

The Giants were due for a letdown game against the Cowboys last week and they had it, only the Cowboys blew it thanks to their aforementioned turnover fest. So now the Giants are still due for a letdown game (especially at home) and look who's there to take advantage. If the Steelers win this game and the Ravens lose to the Browns, the FGR is going to be taking on a decidedly different tone next week (and that may not be such a bad thing).

"Wait, wait, wait . . . what are the
ways you can make the clock
stop running again?"

Atlanta by 4.5 over Dallas: The Pick - Cowboys

We are way overdue for a Falcons loss and for the Cowboys to play one game without their heads collectively inspecting their own colons.

New Orleans by 3.5 over Philadelphia: The Pick - Saints

About the only thing I've been right about all year is that Drew Brees is the guy you take in the first round of your fantasy draft if you want to eliminate the possibility of a bust as he is currently second in the league to Tom Brady in yardage and second to Aaron Rodgers in touchdown passes. Michael Vick, not so much. To the extent the implosion of the Eagles has been flying under the national radar, this Monday night should be their coming-out party.

Last Week's Record: 6-8 . . . Season Record: 53-63-3

Endnotes

* Just like Chan Gailey in Buffalo, Pat Shurmur in Cleveland and Jason Garrett in Dallas are offensive "gurus." I'm starting to wonder if I really understand the meaning of the word "guru." 

Ten Things I Want to See Posted on Facebook

When I reluctantly joined Facebook about a year ago to promote the FGR, little did I know the access I would be granted into people's personal lives from their political positions to the success of their children's little league teams and all of the beautiful places they vacation and the fun people with whom they dine. I hate to admit it, but I find it very entertaining. Just like everything else, however, it would be improved with a dose of brutal honesty. With that in mind, I present the Ten Things I Want to See Posted on Facebook* (along with the Thursday night NFL pick): 

10. Tough season for my son's little league baseball team. We didn't win any games because the commissioner and I got into a fight in high school and now hate each other so I got stuck with a bunch of kids who couldn't throw, catch or run in a straight line for that matter. It would have been ok if they had tried hard or showed the slightest improvement, but most of them didn't seem to want to be there. To be honest, I kind of quit on the team at about mid-season after one of the half-dozen annoying parents pushed me over the edge.

"You can't even call that
baseball for Chrissake!"

9. Bob Jones just watched a video on Porn Hub.

8. Greetings from La Tee Da beach. As if the weather wasn't bad enough, everyone else's kids are annoying the crap out of me. We might leave early to beat the traffic.

7. Danny O'Brien just checked-in on Foursquare from Central Booking in Baltimore City.

6. I have a very strong opinion about one of the presidential candidates but, recognizing that anyone with the mental capacity to shop for their own groceries has already made-up their mind on this one, I'm going to reserve comment.

5. Everyone please remember that the intervention for Andy Martin is at my house and starts at 7:00 p.m. sharp. We will be locking the door right behind him so don't be late.

4. Mary Parker just read an article on Ten Secrets to Killing Your Husband and Making it Look Like an Accident.

3. Happy 9th birthday to our beloved daughter. We're really hoping that this is the year she grows out of her ugly phase.

"Yeah, I kind of think my
birthday is a big deal."

2. Never a dull moment. We were doing some cooking in our basement and things kind of went awry. Can anyone recommend a good cleaning service for getting Drano and hydrochloride out of a carpet?

1. We are out to dinner with another couple and my husband is drunk and won't stop talking about himself. Would someone please call his cell phone and tell him to shut the fuck up!?!

The Thursday Night Pick

I'm going to quote Peter King on this one. "I think we're about to see the national game with the worst ratings of the year." It's Norv Turner v. Romeo Crennel. It's Matt Cassel v. the corpse of Phillip Rivers. And the sad part is that I'll be tuning in as one of my fantasy football teams is dangling from a cliff and only Rivers can save it. It's either him or Jay Cutler but at least I get the feeling that Rivers gives a rat's ass whether I live or die.  

San Diego by 8.5 over Kansas City: The Pick - Chiefs

Hard to believe that the Chargers would be favored by 8.5 points over anyone after that performance in Cleveland last week. If you ignore the records and just look at what we've recently seen on the field, these might be two of the worst five teams in football right now. I'm going to go ahead and take the points because the Chargers will need at least 9 of them to cover which is 3 more points than they've scored in their last six quarters.**

Endnotes

* All characters appearing in this work are fictitious. Any resemblance to real persons is purely coincidental.

** That is also 6 fewer points than the Chargers offense has given-up over the last six quarters. Blechhh.

The Week 8 NFL Picks - Part 2

Let's crank out the rest of these picks before we batten down the hatches.

New England by 7 over St. Louis: The Pick - Patriots

"You'd best not be buggerin'
this up Tommy."

This game is being played in London so the one thing we absolutely know is that there are going to be at least five turnovers that will be blamed on playing overseas because the food tastes so funny over there. I have a feeling that pretty boy Brady is going to step-up his game on the international stage. If for no other reason than I'm sure Giselle has told him, "I have a lot of model friends in London (like Rosie Jones), don't fucking embarrass me like you did at the Super Bowl."

Tennessee by 3.5 over Indianapolis: The Pick - Colts

If I was a Colts fan, I would be only mildly concerned that Andrew Luck's quarterback rating is about 30 points lower than RG, III's because that guy's a freak of nature. However, I would be majorly concerned that Luck's quarterback rating is lower than Ryan Tannehill's and the same as Brandon Weedan's when those guys don't even have Reggie Wayne. Wasn't this guy supposed to be pro ready? I know it's only been six game but I really didn't have another angle on this game so why not devote a paragraph to questioning a quarterback that the Ravens would trade Joe Flacco for in a second? With that being said, the Titans stink and the Colts are scrappy enough to keep this one close win or lose.

Green Bay by 14 over Jacksonville: The Pick - Packers

Finally we have what appears to be a definitive lead pipe lock for a blowout with the Packers who have scored 78 points in their last two games on the road against respectable defenses against a Jaguar team playing without M.J. Drew and an injured starting quarterback who is  determined to play this Sunday even when his coaches keep telling him, "don't rush it Blaine . . . take the week off . . . or even the season because you know how tough these left shoulder injuries can be for right-handed quarterbacks."

San Diego by 2.5 over Cleveland: The Pick - Chargers

Browns fans need to be especially worried about a strong Phillip Rivers bounce-back performance this Sunday because (a) it would obviously make it more difficult for them to win the game and (b) it might lead Browns management to wonder if Rivers could be had for a couple of high draft picks in an effort to make-up for Mike Holmgren's missing-out on RG, III because he tried to lowball the Rams. Only the Browns, who recently wasted first round picks on Brady Quinn and Brandon Weeden, would miss-out on drafting a franchise quarterback because they didn't want to part with their draft picks proving once again that there is "sad irony" and then there is "Browns irony."

So many fond memories
from this MLB season.

Philadelphia by 2.5 over Atlanta: The Pick - Falcons

Reasons no. 12 and 13 that I removed the Falcons from the top of the Power Rankings: (12) Their odds to win the Super Bowl are 9 to 1 (putting them behind the Giants, Bears and Packers in the NFC) and (13) they're giving points to the Eagles who are 50 to 1. Reasons 1 through 11 all have to do with the fact that they lost their last two playoff games by a combined score of 72-23. Fortunately they are playing the NFL's version of the 2012 Boston Red Sox this week.

Detroit by 2 over Seattle: The Pick - Seahawks

The Lions have played six games and Matthew Stafford has thrown five touchdowns and six picks as he makes a push to steal the "worst early round fantasy draft pick" title from early front-runner Chris Johnson. On the other side, you have the Seahawks defense which is third in fewest points allowed and tied for first in fewest touchdown passes against it. If you're picking the Lions here, you're betting that THIS is the game where they work the kinks out of the passing game against one of the best defenses in the league. Um, good luck with that.

N.Y. Jets by 1 over Miami: The Pick - Jets

The Jets have been playing the "no one believes in us" card for years but this season no one actually believes in them and they've been fighting it with some feisty play lately. I don't see Ryan Tannehill getting his first road win in New York, especially with the wind gusting up to 40 mph. Let's hope for Nick Folk and Dan Carpenter's sake, this doesn't come down to a field goal (though it would be pretty cool to see one of those crazy Robbie Gould Soldier Field kicks - Kick Breaking Wind).

Chicago by 7.5 over Carolina: The Pick - Bears

"I got this."

I'm pretty confident that, unless they start making some major adjustments to these lines, you could bet against Cam Newton and the Panthers for the next ten weeks and come out no worse than 7-3. They've played against three good defenses in the Giants, Seahawks and Cowboys and they've come away with 7, 12 and 14 points. The Bears are allowing 13 points per game. That should be plenty for Smokin' Jay.

Pittsburgh by 5 over Washington: The Pick - Redskins

Every time these two teams play I am presented with the great dilemma of either rooting for the team I've hated the most (Steelers) or the team I've hated the longest (Redskins). But not anymore. If you haven't gathered it by now, I'm all in on RG, III to the point that he's actually washed away what was left of 30+ years of pure unadulterated Redskins hatred. I'm not even dreading the sight of burgundy and gold on Christmas morning when my bandwagon jumping nine year old son (the "FGS2") inevitably makes his move.

Kansas City by 2 over Oakland: The Pick - Raiders

That putrid smelling green cloud that used to hover over the NFC West has apparently changed conferences. Between the Raiders buying Carson Palmer for 327 cents on the dollar and the Chiefs getting suckered into trading a first round pick to the Patriots for Matt Cassel and then handing him $62.7M after watching him play one solid NFL season, we may have the two most mismanaged NFL quarterback situations in the same division. (Unless of course you count what's been going on in Arizona, Cleveland, Jacksonville or Tennessee also known as Exhibits A, B, C and D of the contract negotiations opening statement by Joe Flacco's agent).*

N.Y. Giants by 1 over Dallas: The Pick - Cowboys

This is simply a pure pick against conventional thinking. The Giants are riding too high and in the NFC East, no team runs away. This is about the time of the season the Cowboys win three out of four before tanking their playoff chances down the stretch and we get a lot of shots of Jerry Jones standing pensively with his hand on his chin thinking "I wonder if I could get away with putting a whorehouse on the club level if I called it "Landry Lounge."

Denver by 6.5 over New Orleans: The Pick - Saints

If this is going to be the shootout that everyone thinks, then I'm going with the better offense and that is still the Saints. Peyton Manning's comeback has been impressive, but he couldn't quite go toe-to-toe with Brees before he got hurt so I will gladly take the points.

Sorry Jesse but Eric Decker
is no Marques Colston.

San Francisco by 6.5 over Arizona: The Pick - 49ers

Chuck Norris tried Viagra once. It was on March 5th of this year in San Francisco and here are the details from the resulting 4.0 magnitude earthquake - Chuck Norris Quake Stats. Note the 8.1 km depth. Apparently he was laying on his stomach. (As you can tell, I've run out of things to say about this week's games but you don't really need me to tell you not to bet on John Skelton against the Niners D right? . . . right?).

Last Week: 7-5-1 . . . Season: 47-55-3.

Email the FGR

Endnotes

* If I were Flacco's agent, I would open with a montage of Kevin Kolb and Matt Cassel highlights. Then just sit silently while the prospect of finding a replacement free agent quarterback sinks in.

The Week 8 NFL Picks - Part 1

I spent last Thursday and Friday with seven guys in one of those scenes that makes you feel like you're in a vodka commercial with P Diddy and Frank Vincent only, instead of Vegas, we were at an old horse farm that someone had had the good sense to turn into an exclusive 36 hole golf complex. Without going into too much detail, let's just say that this is one of those places where you find yourself commenting on how good a bloody mary would taste while you're putting your on your shoes and the next thing you know someone emerges from locker #27 and hands you about the best goddamn bloody mary you've ever tasted. Then when you get to the range, there's another one next to your golf bag . . . being served by an Adriana Lima impersonator in a Waterford crystal goblet monogrammed with your initials.*

"I heard you guys were
from Baltimore so I
wore purple today."

After 36 holes** we dined in a wood paneled room surrounded by shelves full of old books that I'm pretty sure were full of 18th century pornography. After a loaf of bread, french fries and a few other courses, a plate holding a 20 oz. steak and a 3 lb. lobster landed in front of me and I remember thinking a good plot for a horror movie would be where they lock people in a wood paneled room and feed them to death. (Given some time to reflect, I no longer think that would be a good plot for a horror movie). Ten minutes later I solicited a "wrong glass sir" call from the waiter as I tried to dial-up a Big Gulp of Pinot Grigio to flush-out the various arterial sandbags I had just deposited throughout my circulatory system. I think we would've sat there all night but when a member of our crew completely failed in an attempt to hit the seat of his chair from a distance of approximately 14 inches, we knew it was time to go.***

For what I assume was the same reason that 4th grade teachers separate the hyperactive kids on a field trip, we were divided into two separate living quarters. One was fully equipped with the college common area from heaven including a suitably large television along with a fully stocked fridge and bar. Suffice it to say, we all went there where I discovered that I still had about a 12 oz. empty reservoir behind my right kidney and proceeded to fill-it with Bud Lite. At this point, it was about the middle of the third quarter of the Thursday night game and I decided to explore the studio space a bit and found an adjacent room full of plush couches and a roaring fire . . .

. . . when I opened my eyes at 4:00 a.m., I'm not sure what I though first, "where in the hell am I?" or "where in the hell did everybody go?" or "when did I eat a bowl of cat litter?" All of the lights were on and the TV was blaring and then I thought, "where in the hell is the bloody concierge to turn everything off?" I laid there for about a minute contemplating my options: (1) turn everything off and collapse back on the couch for the rest of the night, or (2) head back to my private room overlooking the course. I chose the latter.

"Oh my God how long is
this freakin' driveway?"

Unfortunately my room was on the other side of the damn farm but after another minute of internal debate grounded on the fact that I wasn't sure which direction I had to go to get there, I headed outside where it had gotten distinctly colder and wetter. I climbed into the nearest golf cart, breathed a sigh of relief that it had a key and drove down the long driveway in what had to look like the country club version of Jim Carey and Jeff Daniels' scooter ride to Aspen. By the time I got there, I was thankful that the concierge had gone home for the night because well . . . that would have been a little awkward.

The ending is somewhat anticlimactic. We got up, everyone made it to the course on time, had a few more bloodies, played through some occasionally steady rain before the skies finally opened up after nine holes and said, "take the hint you clowns . . . it's time to go." We lingered in the clubhouse for about an hour having a few more beers and refusing to let go but then the reality of driving home in rainy Friday afternoon Mid-Atlantic traffic set in and we willed ourselves off the property. And with that, golf season in the region is pretty much over. Oh sure, we'll catch some nice days before the end of the year and play some casual rounds but nothing with that kind of camaraderie and flavor. I'm sorry what was that? Palm Beach in December you say? I'm in.  

Minnesota by 6.5 over Tampa Bay: The Pick - Bucs

Thanks to the Vikings strong start and the Bucs somewhat explosive offense, this is a much better Thursday night match-up than the NFL deserved when they decided to schedule two teams in prime time that went a combined 7-25 last year.**** Last week I said the Vikings were going to make it to 6-2 before sliding back to mediocrity and I'm sticking with that but these Thursday night games have been getting ugly and they're only going to get uglier as we get deeper into the season and the lack of rest becomes more of an issue. Not to mention, even the uniform colors clash tonight. I like the Vikings in a game only worth watching between innings of the World Series . . . 17-13.

Endnotes

* Not really but I did leave this idea in the club's suggestion box.

** We literally finished in the dark (in more ways than one) by shining the headlights of the golf carts on the final tee box and green. It was just like that scene in M*A*S*H when the power went out and Radar was the hero for coming-up with the idea of using the headlights from the jeeps to light the operating tables. (For the record, in my ongoing attempt to repel any readers under the age of 40, that's my second M*A*S*H reference in two weeks).

*** This was no slight miscalculation where one cheek catches a piece of the seat. This was a complete air ball. It would have been the equivalent of Felix Baumgartner aiming for New Mexico and landing in New Delhi.

- "Tagliabue always said you were greedy."
- "He meant it as a compliment."

**** The next three Thursday night match-ups with last season's combined records are Chiefs v. Chargers (15-17), Colts v. Jags (7-25) and Dolphins v. Bills (12-20). I'm picturing Roger Goodell and NFL scheduling czar, Howard Katz, betting a dollar on whether they can beat the baseball playoffs in the ratings with the crappiest possible game on the schedule (at the expense of the fans of course).