Fantasy Golf: The U.S. Open Preview

The 2022 U.S. Open will be contested at "The Country Club" in Brookline, Mass. It definitely takes some hubris to call your particular country club "THE Country Club" but, when you consider that it's just outside of Boston and was originally founded as an equestrian facility, it makes sense. When you throw golf, Boston and horseback riding into a pot, you're getting a pretty douchy stew with more than a hint of arrogance.    

"The Country Club" actually has special meaning for me as it hosted the 1913 U.S. Open which was won by local amateur Francis Ouimet (pronounced "we met" as in, "we met at Applebee's and knew it was meant to be"). The 20 year old who lived across the street won in a playoff over Ted Ray and the great Harry Vardon after whom the PGA Tour scoring title is named. They made a movie about it based on the book The Greatest Game Ever Played and, as my kids can attest, you do not want to watch it with me* when I'm feeling loquacious and emotional because there is a father-son aspect to it that well . . . now I'm getting verklempt.

I would recommend both the book and the movie even if the latter takes a few liberties with the playoff scoring that I actually condone. I mean it wouldn't be a golf story if they didn't embellish it a bit. Shia LaBeouf crushes the lead role with Stephen Dillane (a/k/a Stannis Baratheon) and Stephen Marcus playing Vardon and Ray just enough over the top to be perfect. I may watch it again tonight if I ever finish editing this behemoth of a preview.  

TWEET OF THE WEEK

This tweet pairs well with LIVGolf announcer/propagandist Jerry Foltz's orgasmic exclamation upon hearing that Reed is joining the cartel . . . "FANS LOVE HIM!" You have to give Jerry credit. He called that first tournament like his life depended on it. 

Patrick Reed is planning on signing with LIV. Although Reed currently has practically no fans in Saudi Arabia, he will have more fans there than he does in America (according to our latest statistics). pic.twitter.com/fcewVwZCu1

— PGA Tuor (@pgatuor) June 8, 2022

GOLF ANALYSIS

Five years ago this week and back when I could still muster the energy to write something more than a formulaic tournament preview, I churned-out about 2,000 words on the U.S. Open's lost decade between Tiger's win at Torrey Pines and Brooks Koepka's win at Shinnecock. I just re-read it and it still holds-up pretty well making the point that the nine tournaments during that stretch stunk due to some combination of: (1) a lack of drama, (2) a second-rate leaderboard, (3) a crappy course, and/or (4) Fyre Festival caliber mismanagement by the USGA.

But I have to give credit where credit is due. With the exception of the 2020 tournament that history will likely forget because it had no fans, no drama and Bryson DeChambeau, the U.S. Open has showed signs of redeeming itself. Playing two of the last four at Pebble Beach and a properly maintained Shinnecock helped as did a dramatic primetime finish by Jon Rahm last year. Now they get to play at what has the potential to be another cool venue and enough off-course storylines that they probably don't even need Paul Azinger to talk if they wanted to give him the week off.         

They also have a field that is so loaded that the guy in the midst of one of the greatest U.S. Open runs in history doesn't even crack the list of top ten favorites. Since 2014, Brooks Koepka has gone T4, T18, T13, Win, Win, 2nd, DNP, T4 yet the oddsmakers still like Shane Lowry and Joaquin Niemann better. Personally, I don't think you should count a guy out until he's finished outside of the top five like maybe two years in a row but hey, I guess that's just me. Brooks is my pick this week because I can already picture him smugly lurking on Sunday like only he can.

My pick would have been Xander Schauffele for the obvious reasons that he's played in five U.S. Opens and finished top ten in every damn one of them. Unfortunately, I wasted him at the Masters as he chose to seize that opportunity to miss his third cut ever in a major. If any single pick sums-up my forecasting this year, that would be it.

There were so many damn
words piling-up that I thought
I should put a picture here.

I really wanted to pick Cameron Smith because he does cool stuff like throw parties for the caddies at his house the week of The Players. In fact, I did pick him and now need to edit a bunch of previously made wagers because I just can't get past his spotty record in the U.S. Open and, for that matter, all other majors not played in Augusta, Georgia. He's played in seventeen non-Masters majors and he only has one top ten finish to show for it. And that was at Chambers Bay which we all now acknowledge was not a real U.S. Open course. On more traditional courses like Shinnecock, Oakmont, Winged Foot (and the one he'll face this week), his results have been as underwhelming as his mullet is prodigious.**

I'm also not feeling any of the four favorites despite the fact that they've combined for seven top tens in the last three U.S. Opens, one of which was a win. The winner this week is going to have to be one calm, cool and collected dude who is comfortable with a conservative game plan and none of the favorites really fit that profile except for maybe Scottie Scheffler. And I've resigned myself to avoid him for the rest of the year because the only way I can salvage my reputation now would be to take that position and hope his best golf is behind him for 2022. Some strategy I know.

Um, question . . . is there anyone else you actually DO like?

Glad you asked. Collin Morikawa would seem to have the perfect temperament for this week and he's proving to be one of those guys who can adapt his game to the major he's playing. He won the British Open the first time he freakin' played it and has improved his Masters finish every year. Something tells me he's going to work his way around this course like a Ferrari mechanic. I think that's a compliment. 

Randomly jumping back to the 1913 theme, we need a couple of Brits so let's take the chalky (literally and figurately) Shane Lowry and Justin Rose who shot 60 on Sunday. Rose was showing a pulse even before that with a T13 at the PGA Championship. I know everyone loves Matt Fitzpatrick because he won the U.S. Amateur here but he can be kind of pouty and pouty ain't gonna play this week. (Oh look, I think he's trying to write the way he thinks cool people talk).

I really like Daniel Berger this week. He's in that group of high third tier guys with Sam Burns and Billy Horschel who could win a major and not surprise anyone. They're kind of just below Hideki Matsuyama but above Gary Woodland. We haven't really had one of those since Patrick Reed (blech) won the Masters so we could be due.

The absolute locks of the week at their modest prices are Louis Oosthuizen and Webb Simpson. I know Louis has been playing like crap lately but the guy has finished second or third in four of the last seven majors. And Simpson has become very reliable on the big stage having missed only one cut since the 2017 Masters. He's like the indispensable kid on your U10 basketball team who never scores but he can dribble, pass and shoot without completely missing the backboard.   

And then we have our sleepers who must answer one simple question. Can you make the cut? Well can you?!?! Brian Harman has in his last four U.S. Opens and Francesco Molinari has seen the weekend in five out of his last six. They're both coming-off solid finishes at The Memorial which is another good sign. You wouldn't offend me if you put Alex Noren in this spot. I'll just look the other way. 

Ok this feels like a good place to stop for today. As I like to say in the car towards the end of a long family trip . . . "EVERYBODY JUST STOP TALKING!!!"

One and Done Pick: Brooks Koepka

"Did someone call for a plumber . . .
and a three time U.S. Open Champion?"

Other Guy I'd Pick: Collin Morikawa

Sleeper Pick: Francesco Molinari 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Collin Morikawa	$10,000
Xander Schauffele	$9,600
Shane Lowry	$9,000
Brooks Koepka	$8,700
Daniel Berger	$8,400
Louis Oosthuizen	$7,600
Webb Simpson	$7,400
Justin Rose	$7,100
Brian Harman	$7,000
Francesco Molinari	$6,900

Oh wait there's more. I don't normally do a chart for majors other than the Masters but the last few U.S. Opens have allowed for some consistency and trends. I almost discarded the 2017 farce that was Erin Hills in favor of Oakmont in 2016 but I didn't think of that until just now. 

                                THE GOLFERS ARE NOT POLITICIANS

                                 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

Three other things that should jump out at you are: (1) Tony Finau's upside, (2) Harris English's recent success, and (3) Patrick Reed's (blech) consistency. And maybe the overrating of Cameron Young. He's had a nice run but $8,800 at the U.S. Open? Come on now.

	DK Price	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
Scottie Scheffler	$11,300	T7	DNP	MC	DNP	T27
Justin Thomas	$10,900	T19	T8	MC	T25	T9
Jon Rahm	$10,800	1st	T23	T3	MC	MC
Rory McIlroy	$10,500	T7	T8	T9	MC	MC
Cameron Smith	$10,200	MC	T38	T72	MC	DNP
Collin Morikawa	$10,000	T4	MC	T35	DNP	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$9,700	W/D	T13	T12	DNP	DNP
Xander Schauffele	$9,600	T7	5th	T3	T6	T5
Jordan Spieth	$9,500	T19	MC	T65	MC	T35
Dustin Johnson	$9,400	T19	T6	T35	3rd	MC
Will Zalatoris	$9,300	MC	T6	DNP	MC	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$9,200	T15	T43	T21	T45	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,100	T26	T17	T21	T16	T2
Shane Lowry	$9,000	T65	T43	T28	MC	T46
Joaquin Niemann	$8,900	T31	T23	DNP	DNP	MC
Cameron Young	$8,800	MC	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Brooks Koepka	$8,700	T4	DNP	2nd	1st	1st
Billy Horschel	$8,600	MC	T38	T32	DNP	MC
Matt Fitzpatrick	$8,500	T55	MC	T12	T12	T35
Daniel Berger	$8,400	T7	T34	T49	T6	MC
Sam Burns	$8,300	MC	DNP	DNP	T41	MC
Tony Finau	$8,200	MC	T8	MC	5th	DNP
Max Homa	$8,100	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tyrell Hatton	$8,000	MC	MC	T21	T6	MC
Bryson DeChambeau	$7,900	T26	1st	T35	T25	MC
Corey Conners	$7,900	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	MC
Mito Pereira	$7,800	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Aaron Wise	$7,800	DNP	DNP	T35	MC	DNP
Tommy Fleetwood	$7,700	T50	MC	T65	2nd	4th
Sungjae Im	$7,600	T35	22nd	DNP	MC	DNP
Loois Oosthuizen	$7,600	2nd	3rd	T7	T16	T23
Abraham Ancer	$7,600	MC	T56	T49	DNP	DNP
Keegan Bradley	$7,500	DNP	MC	MC	MC	T60
Talor Gooch	$7,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	66th
Seamus Power	$7,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Webb Simpson	$7,400	MC	T8	T16	T10	T35
Harris English	$7,400	3rd	4th	T58	DNP	T46
Sebastian Munoz	$7,400	MC	T59	MC	DNP	MC
Sergio Garcia	$7,300	T19	MC	T52	MC	T21
Russell Henley	$7,300	T13	DNP	DNP	T25	T27
Tom Hoge	$7,300	T46	DNP	T43	DNP	DNP
Harold Varner, III	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Davis Riley	$7,300	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Reed	$7,200	T19	T13	T32	4th	T13
Adam Scott	$7,200	T35	T38	T7	MC	MC
Jason Kokrak	$7,200	MC	T17	DNP	DNP	T53
Marc Leishman	$7,200	64th	MC	T35	T45	T27
Sepp Straka	$7,200	DNP	DNP	T28	DNP	DNP
Cameron Tringale	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Rose	$7,100	MC	MC	T3	T10	MC
Gary Woodland	$7,100	T50	MC	1st	T36	T50
Lanto Griffin	$7,100	T35	T43	DNP	MC	DNP
Erik van Rooyen	$7,100	MC	T23	T43	DNP	DNP
Si Woo Kim	$7,000	T40	MC	MC	MC	T13
Alex Noren	$7,000	DNP	T17	MC	T25	MC
Thomas Pieters	$7,000	DNP	T23	MC	DNP	MC
Luke List	$7,000	DNP	DNP	MC	MC	DNP
Brian Harman	$7,000	T19	T38	DNP	T36	T2
Kevin Na	$7,000	MC	MC	MC	DNP	T32
Adam Hadwin	$7,000	T40	54th	DNP	MC	T60
Francesco Molinari	$6,900	T13	DNP	T16	T25	MC
Kevin Kisner	$6,900	T55	MC	T49	MC	T58
Phil Mickelson	$6,900	T62	MC	T52	T48	DNP
Branden Grace	$6,900	T7	MC	MC	T25	T50
Mackenzie Hughes `	$6,800	T15	MC	DNP	MC	DNP
Stewart Cink	$6,700	T57	DNP	DNP	T27	T14
Joel Dahmen	$6,600	DNP	MC	MC	DNP	DNP

Footnotes

* In what has to be a sign of some personal growth, I was watching the original Top Gun with my kids this week and I didn't pre-quote a single line. Not even "a cargo plane full of rubber dogshit out of Hong Kong." It took everything I had. I would like proper recognition. 

** Some of my partiality towards Cam has to come from the fact that, even when I had hair, I could never have grown a mullet. My one ill-fated run at long hair resulted in it just continuing to pile atop my head like a bunch of barn swallows were trying to build a fucking skyscraper. It finally became virtually un-washable what with all of the debris it picked-up throughout the day. My Twitter profile picture circa 1993 tells at least part of the story.  

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com. 

Fantasy Golf: The RBC Canadian Open Preview

I want to allow LIV Golf some time to percolate and fully commence its three year implosion sequence before giving it the full treatment but these initial press conferences are just, well, wow. I don't know how else to describe them.  

For those who aren't following this as it develops (and I would kind of count myself in that group), here's the gist. The LIV Golf International Series is a league led by former standout player Greg Norman who has turned out to be an even bigger asshole than we originally thought . . . and that's quite an achievement. Let's just say that Larry Mize did us all a huge favor by pre-eradicating him from any historical Masters conversation. Of course the Shark competed for the green jacket more than just that once and he took care of the rest. 

Who knew Alan Shipnuck could
be the new Richard Engel?

LIV Golf has stoked controversy because the astronomical amount of money it's paying the players is reportedly being funded by Saudi Arabian sources. Many have taken issue with this because the Saudis have (1) a poor record on human rights, discrimination and basic justice (in that they don't really believe in any of that stuff), (2) provided most of the 9/11 terrorists, and (3) recently dismembered an American journalist. This is all fairly common knowledge . . . probably even for most prominent professional golfers who appear to live a hermetically sealed existence when it comes to the news of the day.*

     

Back to the player press conferences. The headliners like Dustin Johnson, Graeme McDowell and Talor Gooch have predictably been asked if they have any issues getting paid by the bad guys. Here is what we have learned from their answers:

• They are unequivocally NOT politicians even if they're finally going to get paid like them.
• The primary reason they decided to join LIV Golf is to "grow the game" out of a deeply held sense of athletic altruism so all of these questions about where the money comes from are kind of irrelevant when you really think about it. Because the money itself is irrelevant. 
• Some players have stated that they like the shotgun* start format because who doesn't pump their fist and go "YES!" when they show-up for a tournament thinking that they're going to tee off on the first hole, only to discover they'll be starting on the 231 yard par 3 14th?  

Graeme McDowell who might be the most underrated least likable player of his generation went so far as to say (and I am paraphrasing here) . . . "hey if the Saudis want to pay us a fuck ton of money to make them look better, then who are we as game growing non-politicians to pass judgment and turn them down?" He did that within seconds of acknowledging that the murdering and dismembering of a journalist was not cool. At a press conference. Full of journalists. I shit you not. 

Here's a little tip for the LIV dudes from someone with experience in both personal and professional damage control. When everyone already knows that you're doing it for the money, just say "I'm doing it for the money." It's ok. We all do things we're not proud of for the money. Hell, I once tried to get a liquor license in the name of a client's 15 year old son on account of the fact the guy couldn't get one himself due to his convicted felon status. I might've actually pulled it off if the fucking kid hadn't shaved on the day of the hearing. 

It's ok. Really. Just come out and say it. You'll feel much better. And in most cases, it's not as if we will like you any less.  

TWEET OF THE WEEK

If you don't think I'm copying the list in this tweet and texting it to my friends while claiming it as my own, then you don't know me. Or maybe you do because I literally have no friends who would understand why this list is funny.

Interesting to see the team names for LIV Golf. A few good ones, a few duds pic.twitter.com/7ll2N7BlbW

— Shane Ryan (@ShaneRyanHere) June 7, 2022

GOLF ANALYSIS

The loyal upstanding members of the PGA Tour will be at St. George's Golf and Country Club this week for the first time since 2010 when Carl Pettersson shot 60-67 on the weekend to beat Dean Wilson by a stroke. Luke Donald must have mistaken it for a major as he shot a final round 66 to backdoor a 3rd place finish. The good news is that I didn't have to prepare a historical performance chart because Donald, Charley Hoffman and John Huston might be the only guys in the field who played in 2010. The bad news is that doesn't leave me much to write about. But that never stopped me before. 

The field this year is solid at the top with the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. We then get a slight dip down to Shane Lowry, Cameron Smith and Sam Burns before things go south in a hurry and you're happily paying $8,000+ for the likes of Mackenzie Hughes and Brendon Todd. 

You have to like Lowry this week. I mean the course couldn't sound more British and he's been playing great in 2022 with three top fives in his last nine starts. I like Rory for all the same reasons but I already burned him at the Arnold Palmer. I'm also taking Tony Finau over Burns and Smith in the pick I will certainly regret.  

From there your guesses are as good as mine (which haven't been very good lately). I went with a couple Canadians in the aforementioned Hughes along with Nick Taylor. No one could blame you for taking a flyer on Corey Conners or Adam Hadwin being the first Canuck to win this thing since Pat Fletcher in 1954 who I'm pretty sure also played on the wing for the Maple Leafs.  

"Just pick that other
facking bloke instead!"

One and Done Pick: Shane Lowry

Other Guy I'd Pick: Rory McIlroy

Sleeper Pick: Rory Sabbatini

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Rory McIlroy	$10,500
Shane Lowry	$10,100
Tony Finau	$9,400
Mackenzie Hughes	$8,400
Brendon Todd	$8,200
Nick Taylor	$7,700
Matt Wallace	$7,400
Emiliano Grillo	$7,400
Rory Sabbatini	$7,200
Bill Haas	$6,800

Footnotes

* This is not necessarily meant as a shot. There are times I'd love to seal myself off from the cruel realities of the world but I have a friend who rants several mornings a week via text while watching The Today Show so I would never truly be free. 

** The concept of a "bone saw start" was apparently considered and then rejected. 

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.