Fantasy Golf: The Byron Nelson Preview

Thin preview this week as we recover from the cheap wine hangover brought on by a Players Championship which shattered the record for differential between hype and entertainment or, as Dan Hicks will ultimately refer to it, "A TOURNAMENT FOR THE AGES!!!" I don't want to brag that I saw this coming but on Saturday I wrote, "let's just pray that this doesn't devolve into a late Sunday duel between Kyle Stanley, Patrick Cantlay and Si Woo Kim." So I kind of called it . . . if you leave out the part about it being a "duel." 

Late in the broadcast when it became clear that no player of current consequence was going to contend and shortly after defending champion Jason Day rinsed three balls on 16 and 17, Hicks made an asinine comment about how challenging the course was as evidenced by the fact that no players ranked in the top ten were going to finish top ten on Sunday and two of them (Day and Justin Rose) just shot 80. Hate to break it to you Dan but when your winner was ranked 75th in the world and the average ranking of your top five was 103rd, it doesn't mean the course was tough. It means the course sucks.

The whole Players shit show can basically be summed-up with one shot and that was Rafa Cabrera Bello's second on Sunday at the par five 16th. He hit what he probably thought was an okay 8-iron a little short and left that kicked-off a mound to the right and went into the hole for a double eagle. An "A+" result for a "B-" shot. For every one of those there was also an "A+" shot that yielded a "B-" result and a lot of "B-" shots that produced "F" results. That's TPC Sawgrass in a nutshell. They should change the name to "TPC Blind Squirrel" or  "Lucky Bounce National" (I also like "Dump National" but Brandt Snedeker's caddie already bestowed that on the dog track at Doral in honor of its figurehead). 

Let's move on because this week we head back to Texas and we all know that that means . . .  smokin' hot cowgirls! You gotta like Brooks Koepka considering he's playing fairly well and he had this tournament in the bag last year before going full head case and handing it to Sergio Garcia. Dustin Johnson is the favorite at a ridiculous 4/1 to win so, if you haven't pulled the trigger on him yet, this could be the spot though the field includes Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and a handful of others who could get in his way and slow him down. I think that's where we are with D.J. right now. Full freight train waiting for someone like Jon Rahm or Rory McIlroy to find the emergency brake. Either them or a cheesy Pete Dye golf course (I know . . . I need to let it go).

Forgive me if this is an FGR
repeat. I figured you'd understand.

The One and Done Pick: Brooks Koepka

The DraftKings Top Ten Values

Dustin Johnson	$12,500
Brooks Koepka	$10,200
Jason Dufner	$8,800
Matt Kuchar	$8,700
Charley Hoffman	$8,500
Byeong-Hun An	$8,000
Bud Cauley	$7,800
Kevin Tway	$7,700
Smylie Kaufman	$7,100
Keegan Bradley	$6,900

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.          

Course Review: TPC Sawgrass (Sh*t Sandwich)

Regular readers of the Fantasy Golf Report know that I do not hold TPC Sawgrass in the highest regard. Until 2013, this opinion was based primarily on the theory that, if Tiger Woods has played twenty plus professional golf tournaments on your course and only won one of them, then your course sucks. This theory was further supported by the fact that during one nine year stretch, the course yielded the following journeymen winners: Craig Perks, Stephen Ames, Tim Clark and a nearly fifty year old Fred Funk.* Then, in 2013, Tiger cut a leg out from under my case by winning a second Players so I needed a new justification for my scorn.

Cut to a few weeks ago when I found myself on spring break in northeast Florida about twenty minutes from the course. That alone wouldn't have been enough to get me out there (because I left my days of walking onto golf courses as a single in my past next to my tolerance for strangers) but I also happened to be there at the same time as another member of my regular golfing posse so this presented an opportunity for me to actually play the course and judge it on its merits (there's a novel idea dickhead).

"That's not real is it?"

Before getting into the details, allow me to offer a general preview by paraphrasing a great movie line here. "The FGR's review for TPC Sawgrass was merely a two word review which simply read shit sandwich.'" I found the entire experience to be awkward and unrewarding much like my rap with the ladies in high school (and beyond). 

Let's start with a couple items of full disclosure before we commence taking issue: 

(1) It was unseasonably cold and pretty windy so the conditions were tough for scoring. We considered bagging it due to the weather but we had it on good information that the course was in phenomenal shape so we decided to take advantage of it. (Apparently this is not a given at Sawgrass which seems crazy in light of the price which I will not disclose here because the FGW reads this but think brand new Callaway Epic driver with an upgraded shaft); and 

(2) I did not have my "A" game. I'm a 5 handicap (at least I was at the time) but I'd say I brought a 9-10 to the course that day. It wasn't for lack of preparation as I had a couple beers before I teed off and I was packing a mini of Fireball in each back pocket.** (The Fireball was a departure from the traditional vodka/Gatorade approach but seemed appropriate in light of the weather). All of the ingredients for a good swing had therefore been added to the pot but the stew ended-up tasting like shit. Maybe I accidentally used cinnamon instead of pepper or the onions were rotten. This suspect analogy might work better if I had ever actually made a fucking a stew.

"It's right here dumbass.
God are you blind?"

Also, we hired a caddie to enhance the experience and he kind of sucked. On a course designed to confuse you off the tee, his approach was to hand us drivers and run down the fairway after telling us to "keep it to the right" when there was water to the left and "keep it to the left" when there was water on the right. I'm no marine biologist but I do know what water looks like and that golf balls sink in it. I've been accused more than once of having unreasonable expectations of caddies but all I ask is that they see the hole the same way I see it and envision the shot I want to hit with no prior knowledge of my game. Is that too much to ask?

The result was that I'd find myself on tee boxes staring at water on one side that I obviously wanted to avoid but not knowing where to aim so I could accomplish that and still hit the fairway. And this is where the critique of the golf course starts. I'm all for the occasional blind tee shot, partially concealed landing area or hard to gauge carry over a bunker but not on every damn hole. It's like they found the most gimmicky hole on a dozen different courses and imported them to go with about five or six holes that are actually worth a shit.

We played it from the longest tees available which put us one box and 575 yards short of the tournament tees (7,245 to 6,670). This was just about the right length to give me the same distance on shots in that the pros usually hit. For example, I hit a solid drive on the par five 16th leaving me about 215 to the middle of the green which has a tree guarding the front left, a bunker front right and water covering everything else except left of the green. I have a newfound respect for the pros who attack it. I committed to going for it and then, as I addressed the ball, our caddie sauntered by and said "keep it left" and that's all this mental midget needed to blow it way left into a brutal lie. Four shots later I tapped in for a "fuck you" bogie.

The hole that really summed the round up for me was No. 6 which was our 15th because we played the back nine first. It's only 360 yards and I hit a solid drive down the left-hand side but was sure I had pulled it into the rough. Turns-out, however, that the fairway dips to the left and I had caught it so I was left with a wedge from a perfect lie to a front left pin. I proceeded to hit probably my best shot of the day right at it but, when I arrived expecting to find a birdie putt, I instead discovered that my ball had rolled down into a grassy hollow to the left of the green. I then asked the caddie where I had to flop it to have it release down to the hole. He showed me. I hit it right there and the ball stopped fifteen feet short. I then ignored his read and made the putt. That may have been the last time we spoke.

So to sum it up, what you can expect from TPC Sawgrass is a confusing and at times unfair golf course that rewards good shots but also penalizes them. Apparently this is standard with Pete Dye designs. I've now played three of them and won't be taking any detours to play more. The price is absurd considering that the service is about what you'd find at any other public course that markets itself as a cut above a muni. With all that being said, however, I'd recommend playing it once. If for no other reason than to play 16-18 and feel how claustrophobic it is and imagine what it must be like when it's jammed with spectators.

Suffocating!!!

Speaking of which, I bet you think this review was bitter because I dumped it in the water on No. 17. Well you'd be wrong because I hit the green with a pretty sweet punch draw 8-iron into the wind. The pin was in the front left position and I had hit it to the middle so I was left with a downhill curling thirty-five foot putt which I cozied-up to a foot for the par. So eat it. 

Footnote

* As I write this on Saturday afternoon, the leaderboard is taking on a very Perks/Ames/Clark/Funky feel. Let's just pray that this doesn't devolve into a late Sunday duel between Kyle Stanley, Patrick Cantlay and Si Woo Kim. As much as I love ripping this event for its self-aggrandizement, it's second rate announcing crew (Jimmy Roberts?) and its clown's mouth course, I still want to see the best players in the mix at the end. I'm a hater but not THAT much of a hater.     

** I always come prepared when playing a new golf course because you never know what the arrangements are going to be when you get there, especially at a private club. Thus the inspiration for my account of playing Medalist (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Vodka) and the fact that I got so banged-up on the ride to Pine Valley that I barely remember shooting something like 78. I wrote about that too (The Promised Land - Part 3).         

Fantasy Golf: The Players Championship Preview

So here's an idea. If you want your event to be considered top shelf in a sport where the fanbase is overwhelmingly comprised of dudes, then don't schedule your final fucking round on Mother's Day. For those of us fortunate enough to be near a TV late on Sunday afternoon and not stranded out at some failed farm that's been turned into a soon to be failed vineyard having a picnic of assorted overpriced gourmet grocery store crap, it's still going to make for a logistical nightmare as we watch ten DVR'd minutes at a time while pretending to make dinner, plant flowers and yelling at our kids to "MAKE THIS DAY SPECIAL!"

"Can someone pass the
goose shit hummus?"

Seriously, this is the PGA Tour's event so they make the damn schedule and they put the final round on the one day of the year when watching golf at 5:00 p.m. is a borderline sin? It's bad enough when the Master's ends on Easter Sunday but at least by the time the back nine starts, brunch is over, Christ has risen and any eggs that haven't been found ain't gonna be found until they start rotting under the couch (note to new parents: always do Easter egg hunts outside . . . even if it's raining). 

And don't get me started on the thanks for nothing situation that is the U.S. Open on Father's Day. I'm going to watch it whether you put it on "my" day or not but now you've made it weird because the true underlying insidious expectation of Father's Day is that you should spend it celebrating your relationships with your kids by playing a four hour game of catch or building a go-kart out of the leftover wood from the unfinished treehouse. So basically it's supposed to be a more sentimental version of the other 364 days of the year. Fuck that. I'm watching golf and eating a cheeseburger. Everyone else can do whatever makes them think I'm special. End of rant.

The FGR has decided to
conduct an independent
Russian investigation.

It has been well-documented that I think The Players' claim of being the fifth major is beyond soft due to the quality of the golf course (more on that later this week), the caliber of its past champions and the fact that there will never be a "fifth major." However, the tournament has had a good run of late thanks to victories by Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Martin Kaymer, Tiger Woods and Matt Kuchar. It's almost enough to make us forget that Stephen Ames, Fred Funk and Craig Perks took the title in one five year stretch and that Tim Clark made it one of his two career victories in 2010. But it's still the golf tournament equivalent of Matt Ryan walking into a room with Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson and asking, "you guys telling Super Bowl stories?"  

The Players does have one redeeming quality - the best field in golf. And what that means from a wagering standpoint is that there is value in the mid to low range from recent winners like Kuchar ($7,900) and Kaymer ($,7300) to major winners like Zach Johnson ($7,200) and Jimmy Walker ($7,200) who have proven that they can negotiate Sawgrass' quirks and idiosyncrasies (that's me trying to be diplomatic like when I describe certain people as being quirky and idiosyncratic when what I mean is that they're more annoying than babies on planes).

The tricky part about picking The Players is at the top because, since 2009, only three guys have finished 5th or better more than once - Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia and Ben Crane. If you've already used Rickie and Sergio and you're not expecting a career resurrecting experience for Crane, then your next best bets from the upper echelon are Rory McIlroy who has gone  T12, T8, T6 and T8 over the last four years and defending champ Jason Day though who knows where his head is right now (or ever)? 

As of this moment, I'm torn between Rory and Justin Thomas who finished 3rd last year. Both have the length and high ball flight to take advantage of the par fives and shorten other holes where the big hitters can cut corners. I'm leaning towards Rory because it seems like every top player wins this thing once and, if I keep picking him every year, eventually I'm going to be right (said the guy who lost everything at the roulette table). Fuck it. After two consecutive missed cuts, I need to make a splash. Just hope it's not a belly flop.

This could take some time.

One and Done Pick: Rory McIlroy         

Rory McIlroy	$11,200
Sergio Garcia	$10,200
Rickie Fowler	$9,300
Justin Thomas	$8,900
Matt Kuchar	$7,900
Martin Kaymer	$7,300
Jimmy Walker	$7,200
Zach Johnson	$7,200
Shane Lowry	$6,900
Luke Donald	$6,800

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com and follow us on Twitter @FantasyGolfRep. 

Fantasy Golf: Wells Fargo Championship Preview

So I was a little late getting the memo that the Wells Fargo Championship wouldn't be played at Quail Hollow this year which basically means that I have no idea who to pick. So what's a slumping prognosticator to do? I'm going to get the fuck back to basics and find some value, that's what I'm going to do. That starts with the obvious pick of Jon Rahm at the top because he's earned "hey dumbass, pick me every week" status until proven otherwise. Conversely, we're going to bench D.J. until we're sure everything is ok after his "fluke" injury.*

For our one and done pick, we're going with the gritty Kevin Kisner who's game plays anywhere so it might as well here (wherever the hell "here" is). Not to mention, Kisner is a fellow practitioner of motivation through miserable body language and resting bitch face so he's always been an FGR favorite. (Stop telling me to have fun. I AM HAVING FUCKING FUN!!!).

The rest of the crew is made-up of reliable dudes, some of whom have slipped into undervalued territory like William McGirt, Zach Johnson and Shane Lowry - ZJ in particular. He's been slumping since February and two months is about as long as he's going to stay down before he and the Lord will him to a top ten. (That is not intended as a slight. If anyone is going to convince me to get more God in my golf game, it's that nails grinding SOB).         

And that's all I got this week. Now I'm off to play tennis because, in a week where I've already jumped on a trampoline, headed a soccer ball and almost ripped my abdomen in half trying to demonstrate a gymnastics move to my kids in the kitchen, I figure I might as well finish the job by shredding my elbow and shoulder after not having picked a racket up in eight months. The lesson as it always has been and always will be . . . I'm an idiot.

I actually LOVE tennis. (Ha! See
what I did there? Can you honestly
believe you get this shit for free?)

The One and Done Pick: Kevin Kisner

The DraftKings Top Ten Value Picks

John Rahm	$11,000
Paul Casey	$9,900
Bill Haas	$9,500
Kevin Kisner	$8,400
William McGirt	$7,900
Jim Furyk	$7,800
Zach Johnson	$7,400
Kevin Tway	$7,200
Shane Lowry	$6,900
Harold Varner, III	$6,300

Footnote

* I've successfully negotiated the hardwood steps in my house while wearing socks twenty-seven times since the Masters. Just sayin'.