Fantasy Golf: The Northern Trust Open Preview

Would you believe me if I told you that Phil Mickelson was my second choice last week? Maybe it was a blessing that I didn't go that way with the pick because then instead of the mild sense of relief I felt when that putt lipped-out, I would've felt the sting of being that close to hitting the trifecta only to be undone by a Class II Phil screw-up. (Winged Foot is of course the Class V which would then make Jean van de Velde's British Open meltdown* the equivalent of the storm in The Day After Tomorrow).** 

Oh who am I kidding? Picking Jimmy Walker over Mickelson cost me $600,000+. It was a stumble that could prove costly in the end. On the other hand, if you've ridden with the FGR this year, you've only used three of the top twenty players in the world and you've gotten wins out of two of them (you know I'm going to milk those two wins for as long as I reasonably can and then for at least another month after that).       

Now we move down the coast to the Northern Trust Open where we've been alternating "A" List winners with riff-raff since Mickelson went back to back in 2008-09. Since then, the winners have been Steve Stricker, Aaron Baddeley, Bill Haas, John Merrick, Bubba Watson and last year's winner, James Hahn. This means we should be due for a stud performance, especially when you consider that Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy are on the guest list. I wouldn't roll the dice on either of them as a one and done pick but I'd certainly factor them into any other semi-legal gambling endeavors I might be undertaking (wink, wink, nudge, nudge). 

As for whom I would pick, it would come down to Jimmy Walker (used him), Hideki Matsuyama (used him too), Dustin Johnson (used him and something seems squirrelly with his game right now), Bubba Watson (plan to use him later), Charl Schwartzel (always disappoints me when I use him), Sergio Garcia (see Charl Schwartzel) and Bill Haas (yawn). As we head to print, I'm going with Haas but that could change to Sergio at the last minute. I switched from Hunter Mahan to Matsuyama late with the best possible results and almost did the same with Walker to Phil last week but I chickened-out. 

Now I'm waffling back and forth between the equally unscientific strategies of (a) going with my first instinct or (b) riding this second guess method. Or maybe I should go with option (c) which I guess would be Schwartzel under the theory that sooner or later he's going to have to come through for me. Or maybe I'm overthinking it (maybe?) and option (d) is the way to go because I'm foolish to save Bubba for later. Holy crap I've turned into Vizzini from The Princess Bride and look how things turned-out for him.*** 

I hope you've found this salient "analysis" helpful. Believe me that just as much irrational thought went into the picks below. Good luck.

The Day After Tomorrow's frigid
plot and setting severely neutralized
some of Emmy Rossum's strengths.

The Northern Trust Odds

Jordan Spieth - 6/1
Rory McIlroy - 6/1
Dustin Johnson - 14/1
Hideki Matsuyama - 16/1
Justin Rose - 16/1
Bubba Watson - 22/1
Sergio Garcia - 25/1
Adam Scott - 28/1
Jimmy Walker - 28/1
J.B. Holmes - 30/1

Ten Guys We Like

Bubba Watson - 22/1
Sergio Garcia - 25/1
Jimmy Walker - 28/1
Bill Haas - 33/1
Charl Schwartzel - 33/1
Freddie Jacobson - 60/1

But maybe they could do a
sequel called The Day After
Tomorrow 2: Havana Nights.

Brendan Steele - 66/1
William McGirt - 100/1
James Hahn - 100/1
Bryce Molder - 100/1

The One and Done Pick: Sergio Garcia

The Sleeper Pick: William McGirt

Footnotes

* Check-out the Sportcenter recap of that British Open final round. You couldn't have had a better narrator than Kenny Mayne. And how ironically clutch was Jean van de Velde's ten foot triple bogey putt to force the playoff? He doesn't get much credit for that. Not sure why. (Oh right. The biggest choke-job in the history of golf. Never mind).

** It was so cold in Baltimore last weekend that the penguins at the zoo circulated a petition demanding indoor plumbing. It snowed most of Monday and then turned to freezing rain. Today it's fifty degrees with periods of South Asian monsoon. This weekend it could hit sixty degrees . . . in February. I'm not going to draw any scientific conclusions but I believe the climatological term for what's happening is "nuts."  

*** Editors Note: I bailed on Haas and switched to Garcia at the last minute. This decision could ultimately be the source of a lot of anguish and regret but at least I get to root for Sergio this weekend? 

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Downton Abbey Update: Season 6, Episode 6

I feel as though I've missed a great opportunity waiting until this late to make Downton Abbey a regular part of the FGR writing cycle. What are the chances that I'm ever going to latch onto another show that is both so frivolous while at the same time so ripe for commentary (much less watch it as it unfolds season by season instead of binge-watching like some Adderall popping college kid who's parents thought they were doing him a favor by not having a T.V. in the house). I'm open for suggestions if anyone has discovered a worthy replacement.* In the meantime, we'll just have to make the best of the time we have left with the Crawleys, their servants and the men who inexplicably want to marry their strumpet daughters in spite of the sudden tragic death that goes hand in hand with that commitment. Which transitions us smoothly to last Sunday night's episode.     

Nobody met or initiated their demise (the Carolina Panthers notwithstanding) so, with but two episodes to go before the final servant bell tolls, we had to satisfy ourselves with some good old-fashioned class bashing by Lady Mary and that aristocratic apologist Mr. Carson. It was whimsically entertaining to say the least but Downton is at its best when tragedy, or at least the threat, of it is in the air. We can be pretty confident that will be the case next week as we'll be treated to an early 20th century version of the Daytona 500 in which one of the drivers will be carrying the curse of the aforementioned Lady Mary as his co-pilot. What couldn't go wrong?

That Berning sensation
ain't your ulcer. 

And don't forget Lord Grantham and his one or two not so subtle coughs per scene to remind us that the Grim Reaper could enter his room just as easily as that nosy little socialist from the house tour. I assumed that was supposed to be Bernie Sanders' dad but I checked and he emigrated from Poland in 1921 so it is highly unlikely that he was in England to interrogate Bobby Grantham on June 6, 1925. And yes I just Googled "Downton Abbey timeline" to determine the exact date of the open house so I could figure-out whether or not Bernie Sanders' father might have been there. What kind of life is this? 

It would appear that, after five and half seasons of taking more abuse than O.J. Simpson in the Naked Gun, Lady Edith's tortoise strategy is going to payoff in the race to be the happiest daughter. Lady Sybil retired early when she married the chauffeur, had a chauffeur baby and then paid the ultimate price for her act of royal rebellion. Lady Mary appears doomed to suffer another tragic loss before the series finale and, even if what appears to be the inevitable is somehow averted, she'll undoubtedly blast another relationship into oblivion with her freeze ray dooming her and young George to a lonely existence at Downton where he'll probably end-up like the creepy mama's boy from Game of Thrones who kept wanting to throw Peter Dinklage through the hole in the floor. At least they'll have Carson around to defend the abbey from thieves and evolution.

As the end draws nigh, I really just have one request and I don't think it unreasonable if I may be so bold. Young Daisy should be on schedule to take her nebulous exams this week and, if she performs well, it could be her ticket to a better life far away from the bowels of the abbey. I hope she bombs them in spectacular fashion. Then I hope she stays true to the impertinent twit she has become and blames Mr. Mosely for her failure. Then I hope she storms out of the school and gets run over by a double-decker tour bus carrying 87 obnoxious Americans on their way to Downton Abbey for Tom Branson's Magical Mystery Money Grab house tour. And yes, double decker buses had been invented by then. I looked it up. (What kind of life is this indeed?)       

Footnote

"And I'm still going to call
you 'Brody' so get used to it!"

* I started watching Showtimes' Billions with Paul Giamatti and Damian Lewis this week. It's going to be hard to fuck-up a show with those two guys in the lead roles so let's hope they don't find a way. As far as it filling the Downton void, let's just say it doesn't have quite the same subtlety. When one of the main characters poses the question, "what's the point of having fuck you money if you don't get to occasionally say 'fuck you,'" you know the writers aren't striving for the same level of nuance as Julian Fellowes (for you troglodytes, he's the chap who writes Downton Abbey).     

Fantasy Golf: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am Preview

Some people who devote a stupid amount of their time to things like picking the winners of golf tournaments are probably humble and unassuming. Suffice it to say that I am not one of those people as evidenced by the fact that I once devoted almost 2,000 words to a detailed account of how my fantasy football team went undefeated. Don't be fooled by the feigned effort to be self-deprecating by comparing that feat to when Homer Simpson almost sacrificed his marriage to catch a legendary fish.* That was out and out bragging. And this will be too.

You see it all started way back in January when I sat down to perform some in-depth analysis on the Farmers Insurance Open. The obvious pick that week would've been Jason Day who was the defending champion and is arguably the best player in the world today (I wouldn't argue it but someone could which technically makes it "arguable"). The FGR decided to shun conventional wisdom, however, and go with another past champion and one of the hottest players on tour in Brandt Snedeker. Did we foresee the bizarre turn of events which led to Snedeker shooting what may end-up being the best round of the year and then taking Monday off while the leaders struggled on the back nine, ultimately handing him the win? "Foresee" is a strong word. If you want to use it, please feel free but we'll just let the results speak for themselves.

Then we moved on to the Waste Management Phoenix Open where Bubba Watson was the logical choice based on his back to back runner-up finishes in 2014-15. We saw it differently, however, so we looked down the list of favorites past Snedeker and defending champion Brooks Koepka to the 4th and 5th players on the list . . . Rickie Fowler and Hideki Matsuyama. The easy thing to do would have been to pick Rickie because, well, everybody loves Rickie. But you can't let emotion cloud your judgment in these matters. Instead, you must trust your research and, in this case, that research showed that Matsuyama had historically played the TPC Scottsdale better than Fowler which may have something to do with Rickie's inability to figure-out a 342 yard par 4 (here's an idea Rickie. . . 5-iron/sand wedge).

Speaking of Rickie, anyone else 
who wears this needs to be
knee-capped with a 9-iron.

To commemorate the two week winning streak we've added a running total for our picks (see below). So now when this season inevitably starts to unravel like Marco Rubio under cross-examination by Chris Christie, we'll always have those two weeks just like Marco had his third place victory speech in Iowa to look back on and smile. (Don't worry, we'll give equal political bashing time on Thursday).** Unlike Marco, however, we still have our whole season ahead of us.

Downton Abbey Update

(Coming Thursday).

Back to Golf

We're leaving no stone unturned in an effort to keep the streak alive but fortunately we think we found the answer under the first stone because we're not much on manual labor. Brandt Snedeker had the fifth best odds when he won and so did Hideki Matsuyama. Coming into this week, we had a feeling it was going to be Jimmy Walker based on his past success at the AT&T and the likelihood that he would've probably won the Farmers if not for the weather (and the fact that he wasn't the FGR pick). So we cross-referenced that hunch with this week's odds and what do you know? Heat-up the gravy because we're about to roll a turkey (that's bowling lingo for three strikes in a row but I added the cheesy part about the gravy and frankly, I already hate myself for it).

The AT&T Pebble Beach Odds

So we're researching Downton
Abbey and accidentally type
"Abbey hot" and . . . 

1. Jordan Spieth - 9/2
2. Jason Day - 8/1
3. Dustin Johnson - 11/1
4. Brandt Snedeker - 14/1
5. Jimmy Walker - 18/1
6. Bubba Watson - 18/1
7. Phil Mickelson - 22/1
8. Justin Rose - 25/1
9. Patrick Reed - 30/1
10. Brooks Koepka - 30/1

Ten Guys We Like***

Dustin Johnson - 11/1
Brandt Snedeker - 14/1
Jimmy Walker - 18/1
Phil Mickelson - 22/1
Kevin Na - 33/1
Hunter Mahan - 70/1
Bryce Molder - 90/1
Will Wilcox - 100/1

. . . BOOM, there's Abbey Clancy.
(We just can't miss these days).

James Hahn - 100/1
Brendon Todd - 150/1

One and Done Pick: Jimmy Walker

Sleeper Pick: Brendon Todd

One and Done Picks to Date

Hyundai:	Dustin Johnson	$148,000
Sony:	Matt Kuchar	$77,604
CareerBuilder:	Ryan Palmer	$75,897
Farmers:	Brandt Snedeker	$1,170,000
Phoenix:	Hideki Matsuyama	$1,170,000
	Total	$2,641,501

Footnotes

* If you don't click on the link and read the General Sherman post (your loss), then at least check-out this Drunk Homer Simpson Montage with one of the truly epic lines in the history of man at 1:48.

** We've gone out of our way to avoid politics in the past but there is way too much material out there now to ignore. We'll do our best to keep it balanced but that's going to be tough until the Republicans thin the herd a bit because every time a candidate on either side opens his or her mouth there is massive potential for mockery and the Republicans currently lead the Democrats seven mouths to two.  

*** Jordan Spieth is always one of the "Ten Guys We Like" when he's in the field. 

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Fantasy Golf: Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview

One of my favorite FGR efforts came about by accident a few years ago when I found myself staring blankly at my keyboard like I was waiting for the letters to rearrange themselves into some profound message from the great beyond that would explain what it's all about or at least spell-out the names of Terry Halbach's killers.* Somewhere from that abyss miraculously came 850 words of commentary on what was then the most jarring episode of Masterpiece Theatre's British melodrama Downton Abbey. You can find that entry here but if you plan on binge-watching the show someday (which I highly recommend), then don't read it because it contains a Keyser Soze level spoiler alert.    

Fast forward to this evening when I found myself in a similarly stunted state of mind so I tracked down that Downton Abbey piece for inspiration and what do you know but it just happened to serve as the preface to the 2013 Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview. Apparently this tournament and I have a disconnect despite its prominent field and the manufactured entertainment value provided by the 16th hole stadium crowd (which I actually buy into 100% despite my generally grumpy old man point of view). And what else do you know but we just had probably the second most jarring episode in Downton Abbey history so let's go back to the well and see if we can manufacture our own little bit of entertainment right here. Are you excited? Yeah me too. Just beware that the next several paragraphs contain a major . . .

DOWNTON ABBEY SEASON 6 SPOILER ALERT!!! 

We knew there was trouble brewing for Lord Grantham several episodes ago when he felt some discomfort in his abdominal region and assured his wife that "it's nothing" when we all know that in the crackpot world of Downton Abbey healthcare, all stubbed toes lead to amputations, runny noses are Typhoid Fever and the first sign of drowsiness means terminal cancer (the dog learned that lesson the hard way last season). The whole medical scene is basically the inspiration for Obamacare.**

"Sorry old chap but I need this butler to iron my
newspaper so we're going to have to let you go." 

About once an episode since that initial warning sign, we've gotten another reminder that disaster could strike at any moment. Couple that with this season's major plot line dealing with the prospect of the local hospital being subsumed into some national healthcare system and we the viewers couldn't help but think that there might be a connection. Then again, we've been watching a period piece about early 20th century British aristocrats for six years so we must be savvy and sophisticated. 

Anyway, the whole thing came to a head at the dinner table on Sunday night with a scene that was part Alien, part The Excorcist and part Mr. Creosote from Monty Python's The Meaning of Life. We are now left to wonder what Lord Grantham's fate will be though we've been down this road with this show before and suffice it to say, it don't look good. This ain't Game of Thrones where a guy can have every major organ shish kabobed nineteen times and lay bleeding in the snow while everyone shrugs their shoulders and says, "he'll be fine." This is Downton Abbey where death lurks around every corner unless of course you're one of the servants in which case you don't get to die because then who would serve the tea?        

THE ACTUAL GOLF PREVIEW 

The only question you really have to answer this week is whether you want to use Bubba Watson now, at the Masters or at the Travelers Championship in August. He's finished T2nd in Scottsdale the last two years so he's about as close to a sure thing as you're going to get which is why I'm picking Hideki Matsuyama. Going contrarian by avoiding Jimmy Walker at the Sony and Jason Day last week has been working so we're going to ride that dog til it drops (who rides a dog?). Besides, Matsuyama's record over the past two seasons is almost as good as Bubba's (T4th and T2nd) and there isn't an obvious place to use him later. At least that's what all of the research I didn't actually do tells me.  

Note that I was reeeaaaalllly tempted to go with Hunter Mahan this week because he's got bounce-back season written all over him and he loves the course but I didn't because I'm a wuss. If you have a pair of stones, give him some consideration. If you are a woman reading this, first of all thank you for looking past my 8th grade maturity level and second, please substitute whatever inanimate objects your gender uses to symbolize a physical trait that one might associate with courageous behavior and give Mahan a look. I'm going to stop talking now.

Oh just one more thing. I picked Brandt Snedeker last week.  Eat it.   

The Phoenix Open Odds

Because this week we're 
all about British . . . 

1. Bubba Watson - 11/1
2. Brandt Snedeker - 12/1
3. Brooks Koepka - 16/1
3. Rickie Fowler - 16/1
5. Hideki Matsuyama - 22/1
6. J.B. Holmes - 25/1
7. Phil Mickelson - 28/1
7. Zach Johnson - 28/1
7. Jason Dufner - 28/1
10. Justin Thomas - 30/1
10. Kevin Kisner - 30/1
10. Kevin Na - 30/1

Ten Guys We Like

Bubba Watson - 11/1
Hideki Matsuyama - 22/1
Justin Thomas - 30/1
Kevin Kisner - 30/1
Kevin Na - 30/1
Webb Simpson - 40/1

Brendan Steele - 45/1

. . . and sophisticated.

Hunter Mahan - 60/1
Ryan Moore - 66/1
Ben Crane - 150/1

The One and Done Pick: Hideki Matsuyama

The Sleeper Pick: Hunter Mahan

Footnote

* Allow me to take this opportunity to thank Making a Murderer for re-affirming my decision to abandon the pursuit of being a real lawyer. My amateur status allows me the luxury of mocking the rampant scumbaggery in the legal profession despite the fact that I am technically part of it. It's just another way I skate through life without actually committing to anything (see the next footnote).  

** That joke doesn't really make any sense but I periodically like to throw a bone to my many right wing friends so that when I visit their homes and they are drunk, they are less inclined to shoot me.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.