The Week 4 NFL Picks - Part 2

In the words of legendary American poet Norm Peterson, "it's a dog eat dog world out there and I'm wearing Milkbone underwear." I actually improved my winning percentage last week by going 7-8-1 and that was only because the replacement refs handed me a freebie on Monday night. The bad news is that I now stand at 20-26-2. The good news is that I think I have this finally figured out. The key is not just the quarterbacks, it's also the head coaches. How else do you explain what's happening in New Orleans with Sean Payton out of the picture wearing a home detention bracelet or the fact that the Cardinals absolutely throttled the Eagles? And with less than an hour to go until kick-off, I just stumbled onto the crutch that's going to help me beat the deadline. Let's throw the home field advantage (with some minor adjustments to the standard 3 points for the better home stadiums, crowds, etc.) and the defenses into the equation and see how this goes (because it can't really get much worse).

New England by 4 over Buffalo: The Pick - Patriots

I'm treating her as a positive
because it's my website.

Home Field: Bills -3
Quarterback: Patriots -7
Coach: Patriots -3
Defense: Push
Giselle: Patriots - 3

= Patriots - 27 . . . Bills - 17

Detroit by 3.5 over Minnesota: The Pick - Vikings

Home Field: Lions - 2
Quarterback: Push (Have you actually watched Matthew Stafford this year?)
Coach: Push
Defense: Vikings - 3

= Vikings - 21 . . . Lions - 20

Atlanta by 7 over Carolina: The Pick - Falcons

Home Field: Falcons - 3
Quarterback: Falcons - 3
Coach: Falcons - 3
Defense: Falcons - 5

= Falcons - 27 . . . Panthers - 13

San Francisco by 4 over N.Y. Jets: The Pick - 49ers

Home Field: Jets - 4
Quarterback: Niners - 7 (Not good when Alex Smith is getting the edge on your QB)
Coach: Push (Let's remember that Rex Ryan is still one of the best in the league)
Defense: Niners - 5 (No Darrelle Revis)

"That can't be right."

= Niners - 28 . . . Jets - 20

San Diego by 1 over Kansas City: The Pick - Chargers

Home Field: Chiefs - 4
Quarterback: Chargers - 5
Coach: Chargers - 1 (The rare favorable match-up for Norv)
Defense: Chargers - 5

= Chargers - 20 . . . Chiefs - 13

Houston by 12.5 over Tennessee: The Pick - Texans

Home Field: Texans - 3
Quarterback: Texans - 7
Coach: Texans - 3
Defense: Texans - 10 (The Titans are giving-up 37+ points per game . . . seriously)

= Texans - 30 . . . Titans - 10

Seattle by 3 over St. Louis: The Pick - Seahawks

Home Field: Rams - 3
Quarterback: Seahawks - 1 (Yes, I'm drinking the Russell Wilson Kool Aid)
Coach: Rams - 1
Defense: Seahawks - 7

= Seahawks - 17 . . . Rams - 13

Arizona by 6.5 over Miami: The Pick - Cardinals

Home Field: Cardinals - 3
Quarterback: Push (The classic battle of wits between unarmed opponents)
Coach: Cardinals - 7
Defense: Cardinals - 4

= Cardinals - 27 . . . Dolphins - 10

Denver by 6.5 over Oakland: The Pick - Broncos

Home Field: Broncos - 4
Quarterback: Push (Sorry Peyton fans, but that's probably generous at this point)
Coach: Broncos - 3
Defense: Broncos - 3

= Broncos - 27 . . . Raiders - 17

Cincinnati by 2 over Jacksonville: The Pick - Bengals

Home Field: Jacksonville - 1 (Maybe the weakest home crowd in the league)
Quarterback: Cincinnati - 5

Even their cheerleader outfits
don't look quite right.

Coach: Cincinnati - 3
Defense: Jacksonville - 3

= Bengals - 21 . . . Jags - 17

Green Bay by 7.5 over New Orleans: The Pick - Packers

Home Field: Packers - 4
Quarterback: Saints - 3 (Maybe they'll help each other bust out of their funks this week)
Coach: Packers - 5
Defense: Packers - 5

= Packers - 31 . . . Saints - 20

Tampa Bay by 3 over Washington: The Pick - Bucs

Home Field: Bucs - 3
Quarterback: Redskins - 5
Coach: Push (Greg Schiano's Ra Ra college styles has not worn-off . . . yet)
Defense: Bucs - 6

= Bucs - 17 . . . Redskins - 13

Philadelphia by 2.5 over N.Y. Giants: The Pick - Giants

Home Field: Eagles - 3 (The Giants love the road)

The fact that you thought "wait,
is that real?" is a really bad
sign for the Bears this year.

Quarterback: Giants - 7
Coach: Giants - 3
Defense: Push

= Giants - 23 . . . Eagles - 16

Dallas by 3.5 over Chicago: The Pick - Cowboys

Home Field: Cowboys - 3
Quarterback: Cowboys - 3 (See picture)
Coach: Push
Defense: Push

= Cowboys - 20 . . . Bears - 14

No style points this week but at least I made my self-imposed meaningless deadline.

Last Week: 7-8-1 . . . Season: 20-26-2

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The Ryder Cup Preview

On September 26, 1999 at about 2:00 p.m. I was sitting in PSINet Stadium in Baltimore watching an 0-2 Ravens team play a typically brutal game against the 0-2 Cleveland Browns (and by "brutal" I don't mean the defensive effort).* At some point I looked over to whomever was sitting next to me and said "screw this, I'm going home to watch the final round of the Ryder Cup." That was back in the days when my seat for Ravens games was three quarters of a mile from my front door. It would take me fifteen minutes to walk to the game and about six hours to walk home via something called the "Purple Patio" which was the parking lot of one of the twenty bars between my house and the stadium that the owners brilliantly painted purple. Those were the freakin' Caesar Salad days (drifting off into a trance).

I wouldn't wear that
shirt to a shit fight.

OK, I'm back. As I was saying, in 1999 I made the shrewd decision to forgo an utterly forgettable fan experience to watch one of the most epic events in the history of golf. Yes, the uniforms looked like something from the Rodney Dangerfield collection in Easy Money, the Americans acted like total jackasses** when Justin Leonard rolled in what would be the Cup clinching putt and David Duval's double fist pumping display with his shirt untucked may have been one of the most awkward things ever seen on a golf course that didn't involve a player trying unsuccessfully to high five his caddie but those circumstances only mildly diminished what for me was a sporting event that fits into that tier right below the U.S.A. v. Russia 1980 Olympic hockey game.*** (Hey, that's how I feel. If you don't like it, go read the Fantasy Bowling Report).

I had planned to write a full-blown preview breaking down every player on each team and explaining why I thought Europe was going to win (best player in the world, more experience, better putters, etc.). I actually started it but then found myself writing things like "Luke Donald is 6-0 in foursomes and is one of the best putters in the world." (Really?!? Please tell me more things I can read on PGATour.com). So I bagged it and figured I would just post my prediction of a European win and be done with it. Then I forgot to do that at some point last night when Brandon "Freakin" Weedan was driving the Browns for the game tying score against the Ravens and Paul "Did I Ever Tell You the Story About How I Got Stabbed in College" Krueger gave them an extra play to get it done by somehow toppling 300+ pound Joe Thomas by gently placing his hand on his shoulder. (Who knew Thomas was such a big Vlade Divac fan?).

So in true FGR fashion, I found myself this morning writing the preview of an event that had already started and I saw two things when I turned-on the coverage that made me change my pick (always the sign of an astute gambler): (a) Graeme McDowell pulled the opening tee shot of the event and the home crowd not only erupted with cheers but started chanting "U.S.A. . . .U.S.A. . . . U.S.A."; and (b) Keegan Bradley stepped-up in the second match and absolutely annihilated a driver down the middle and then shot a look off to the side as if to say, "I got this." Has there ever been a player better suited for this event than Bradley who absolutely thrives on emotion? Let's go ahead and pencil him in for the next eight and a captainship in 2032.

Not to mention, the Euro flag
makes for a lame bikini.

The other issue is that I have my own match today playing in my club's season long two man match-play tournament that my partner and I won in 2009 (we got knocked-out in the first round the next two years). From a field of sixty-four teams we are now down to the semifinals and I am jacked-up to the point that my fingers are spazzing all over the keyboard**** so we're going to cut this short and end it with a prediction and a promise for a fuller Ryder Cup Update edition next week.

USA - 15.0 . . . Europe - 13.0 and the Cup stays home. U.S.A. . .U.S.A. . . U.S.A.!!!!

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Endnotes

* The quarterback match-up that afternoon was Tim Couch v. Stoney Case. They combined to go 25 for 57 for 288 yards, 1 touchdown, 4 interceptions and 8 sacks. The two teams combined for 18 punts. The next time I criticize Joe Flacco, feel free to bring this up.

** I watched the '99 Ryder Cup on the Golf Channel the other night and cringed at the way the Americans rushed the green after that putt when Jose Maria Olazabol still had a putt to halve the hole and keep the Cup in the balance, however, I remember when I watched it live I didn't see anything wrong with it. That may have something to do with me being thirteen years older and watching it sober.

*** I feel sorry for sports fans who are too young to have seen and remember that game because, as the greatest moment in American sports history, it is in that undebatable category with things like "who is the greatest hockey player of all time?" (Wayne Gretzky); "who is the greatest wide receiver in NFL history?" (Jerry Rice); and "who was the biggest asshole in sports history?" (Tie: Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods . . . I was wrestling with a way to end this thing and right on cue they appeared on the first tee at Medinah like it was meant to be).

**** And I don't have time to proofread this either. Just give me the damn C- and let's move on.

The Week 4 NFL Picks - Part 1

I played golf on Tuesday instead of Wednesday this week so my whole body clock is out of whack and as usual, I'm scrambling to get the Thursday night pick in. On top of that, I'm not even going to the game and to be honest, I'm not quite sure why. I don't think I'd ever missed a home night game until last Sunday* and now I'm missing two in a row. Just another step toward getting a flag for my golf cart that lets me drive onto the fringe.

"I really think you guys have been
unfairly criticized and are doing
one hell of a job. Thanks."

The good news is that we will have the real refs working tonight which means that arguably the greatest gambling variable in the history of sports has been take out of the equation. The bad news is that, as a Ravens fan, I thought the replacements did a pretty nice job in the 4th quarter last week . . . especially on the illegal contact penalty on the winning drive and of course, the call on the field goal. I think that's what Bill Bellichick was running out to tell them at the end of the game.

Baltimore by 12 over Cleveland: The Pick - Ravens

In games he has not played against the suddenly woeful Bengals pass defense, Brandon Weeden has thrown for one touchdown pass and six interceptions. The Ravens defense has its flaws but one thing it has always excelled at is plucking the low-hanging fruit. Look for Joe Flacco to struggle against an underrated Browns defense and for it not to matter as the Ravens take it in a classic Thursday night stink bomb 17-3.

Endnote

* Here is my excuse for missing that one - The Week 3 NFL Picks - Part 2. I was so freaking tired Sunday night that I watched Justin Tucker's winning kick sail "inside" the upright through one dying eye. All I remember thinking was that it didn't matter because there was no way those refs were calling that kick anything but good if they had any desire to get out of that stadium in one piece. Remember, Baltimore is the city that inspired a story line where drug dealers killed people and then hid the bodies in the walls of abandoned houses and everyone who lives here thought, "yeah, that could totally happen."

The FGR Rankings Update

Sadly, this was considered
sexy in 1984. A woman with a
tail who smelled like halibut. 

This is the part where I get to do my Eugene Levy from Splash impersonation and declare, "I WAS RIGHT . . . BEHOLD THE MERMAID" or in this case, "BEHOLD THE BEST GOLFER IN THE WORLD!" You see, the original inspiration for the creation of the FGR Rankings was that Rory McIlroy was by far the best player in the world but that fact was not being reflected by the "Official" World Golf Rankings which kept Luke Donald nipping at his heels (and at one point even passing him) by giving him credit for winning random tournaments that no one cares about like the Transitions Championship.* (History of the FGR Rankings).

With his second dominating win in the last seven majors, McIlroy has ended the argument and the WGR seems to have finally figured-out what the FGR knew all along as it has him with what I guess is a comfortable 2.99 point lead.** What the WGR is still clueless on, however, is how to rank the rest of the top 20. I mean how can Keegan Bradley be fourteen spots lower than Lee Westwood when Bradley has a major and a WGC title during a span when the only thing Westwood has won is something called the Nordea Masters in Sweden?*** This isn't so much a knock against Westwood (who is a poor man's Luke Donald when it comes to racking-up top ten finishes) but at some point you have to elevate a guy like Bradley who is now proven winner of big time events which has to be the most important criteria right? I believe it was Socrates who once said, "if you ain't first, you're last."

While we're on the subjects
of Tiger and Sweden . . . 

And that brings us to the case of one Tiger Woods who won three PGA events this year and moved up to second on the WGR. The problem Tiger has under the FGR rankings is that he hasn't won a major or a WGC event since the 2009 Bridgestone which is too old to factor into the equation. Winning the Palmer, the Memorial and the AT&T are all wonderful accomplishments as all of those events had pretty strong fields but the FGR Rankings are primarily concerned with one thing - can you win when all of the A-list guys are in the field? For Tiger, the answer to that question since August of 2009 has been "no" so he currently sits at no. 12.

We've had another minor tweak to the FGR Rankings formula that we'll call the "Jason Day Rule." To summarize, the "Jason Day Rule" basically says that if you take a colossal dump on my fantasy golf season by showing so much prowess last year that I pick you ahead of Rory McIlroy this year, then you don't qualify for the rankings.**** With that rule in effect, here is the current breakdown of the FGR v. the WGR:

         FGR Rankings            World Golf Rankings

1	McIlroy	146	McIlroy	12.68
2	Donald	105	Woods	9.69
3	Bradley, K.	89	Donald	9.25
4	Scott, A.	85	Westwood	7.23
5	Westwood	70	Rose	6.51
6	Schwartzel	64	Scott, A.	6.30
7	Watson, B.	62	Watson, B.	6.17
8	Rose	62	Simpson, W.	6.17
9	Kuchar	61	Dufner	6.00
10	Els	60	Snedeker	6.00
11	Hanson, P.	59	Oosti	5.69
12	Woods	49	Stricker	5.65
13	Simpson, W.	46	Johnson, D.	5.47
14	McDowell	46	Bradley, K.	5.42
15	Toms	46	Kuchar	5.32
16	Dufner	43	Mickelson	5.11
17	Johnson, D.	39	Johnson, Z.	5.08
18	Mickelson	39	McDowell	4.89
19	Oosti	39	Garcia	4.82
20	Kaymer	38	Mahan	4.79

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Endnotes

* What in the hell is the Transitions Championship the championship of anyway? Tampa? Does the winner get free lap dances for life? (If so, that would be pretty sweet because you wouldn't have to keep track of the songs. That can be an expensive learning experience . . . or so I hear).

** We don't do decimals at the FGR because decimals reminds us of the movement to de-Americanize the way we drink soda in this country by switching us to the metric system. You can keep your liters Europe. We're doing just fine getting fatter by the ounce.

You're kind of freaking me out.
Can we bring Elin back?

*** The promotional slogan at this year's Nordea Masters was "Join us for four days of world class golf and we'll show you that we're not all as sordid as the characters in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo." (On the back of the ticket it did, however, say "WARNING: DON'T TURN YOUR BACK ON ANYONE").

**** The actual rule is that you have to finish in the top ten in one of the nine tournaments used in the rankings within the past twelve months to be eligible. (That shouldn't have been too difficult . . . right Jason?!?). This is the other half of the "Darren Clarke Rule" which states that you have to have at least two top tens in the last twenty-four months which of course led to the creation of the "Webb Simpson Corollary" which awards points for a top five finish in the final FedEx Cup and Race to Dubai rankings. When you put the three rules together, the effect is to remove any doubt you may have that I spent three years in law school learning how to create rules to radically change a system (that I created in the first place) so as to achieve a predetermined end result, a process also know as "lawmaking."