The Week 3 NFL Picks - Part 2

As I write this, my wife and I are continuing our efforts to win some kind of fictitious parenting award by hosting about a dozen nine year old boys who are currently watching one of the unwatchable Might Ducks sequels for my son's birthday.* This thing was supposed to happen outside with a movie on the lawn followed by backyard camping. (Because like most avid golfers, I love me some camping). The good news is that the weather negated that overblown effort. The bad news is that we now have that powder keg getting jacked-up on smores in our basement and I fully expect them to burst into defiant laughter when I shut the lights off in half an hour and tell them it's time to simmer down. At least that's what I would have done.

Feels like a great writing opportunity so let's crank-out some picks between bursts of me saying things I never thought I'd hear myself say (DON'T MAKE ME COME DOWN THERE!!!).

Chicago by 7 over St. Louis: The Pick - Rams

"Seriously . . . who farted? That's
why I hate playing in a dome."

I can't give 7 points with a team on the verge of a stellar implosion. No offensive line, no Matt Forte and no concept of stoicism from it's starting quarterback have to eventually catch-up with the Bears. Meanwhile, Jeff Fisher seems to have his team headed for a pick outside of the top five in the 2013 draft which is going to ruin what has become the annual high point for Rams' fans.

Dallas by 8 over Tampa Bay: The Pick - Bucs

Well I said I was going to ride the Cowboys until they inevitably proved me wrong and that was last week. Super Bowl "contenders" don't lay down against rookie quarterbacks. This Bucs teams seems kind of plucky and I love the fact that Greg Schiano didn't get the coach's memo that you're supposed to tell your team to stop trying to win before the game is over.

San Francisco by 7 over Minnesota: The Pick - Niners

I'm sorry, is Christian Ponder going to be the guy who figures out the defense that has already stymied Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford? Well is he? Right . . . I didn't think so.

Detroit by 3 over Tennessee: The Pick - Lions

Kind of hard to pick the Titans getting a measly three points when they lost their first two games by an average of 24.5. If anyone has information on where the "I Picked Chris Johnson in the First Round" support group is meeting, please let me know.

It's good to see the Skins get a
little of their attitude back.

Washington by 3 over Cincinnati: The Pick - Redskins

This is the first home game of RG, III's career and I can tell you firsthand that the fans are giddy. They haven't been this excited since Joe Gibbs agreed to come back and coach the team part time. I expect to see their savior put on a show.

N.Y. Jets by 3 over Miami: The Pick - Jets

The Jets blew out the Bills and then got hammered by the Steelers while the Dolphins reversed that formula against the Texans and the Raiders. I'm going to bet on the Jets D not letting Reggie Bush run all over them for 172 yards like he did last week. And can we please get Tebow some touches? I can't believe I'm saying this but I'm starting to miss him.

"I WILL SPLIT YOU TWO UP IF YOU CAN'T CALM DOWN!!!"

New Orleans by 8.5 over Kansas City: The Pick - Saints

These two teams have each given-up 75 points through two weeks so this is going to look like a flag football game. I'm throwing the spread out the window and banking on someone winning this thing by at least ten points. And that someone is not Matt Cassel.

Buffalo by 3 over Cleveland: The Pick - Bills

Joe Flacco shredded the Bengals defense in week 1 and was very shaky against the Eagles defense in week 2. Brandon Weeden had the same results against the same teams. That's just a coincidence right?

Indianapolis by 3 over Jacksonville: The Pick - Colts

Don't you get the feeling that the Jags are already vying for the #1 pick in next year's draft and getting a firsthand look at Andrew Luck is only going to strengthen their resolve?

"Just inputting the words
'Kolb' and 'undefeated'
crashed the server."

Philadelphia by 4 over Arizona: The Pick - Cardinals

The Eagles have turned the ball over like 20 times and are undefeated. The Cardinals are undefeated with Kevin Kolb at quarterback. The mathematical probability of those two simultaneous occurrences is so unlikely, I need a Peter Brand algorithm to pick this game. Oh yeah, if anyone knows the number for the "I Picked Larry Fitzgerald in the Second Round" hotline, please let me know.

San Diego by 3 over Atlanta: The Pick - Chargers

This game comes to down to which you believe more: (a) the Chargers are ready to put in a full 16 game season or (b) Matt Ryan is ready to start backing-up the hype. Until I see Matty Ice do it against a defense that brings more to the table than the Chiefs and the Broncos, I'm leaning towards (a). (And if you think that this has anything to do with him constantly being rated above Joe Flacco despite the fact that Joe has won five playoff games to Matty's zero . . . then you're very perceptive).

"DON'T MAKE ME CALL YOUR PARENTS TO COME GET YOU RIGHT NOW!!!"

Houston by 2 over Denver: The Pick - Houston

It sure looked like the Falcons laid-out the blueprint for beating the current version of Peyton Manning. Bring a ton of pressure, cut-off the short routes and test his ability to still throw darts down the field. The Texans not only have better personnel to do that but they also have the running game to keep him on the sideline. In a related note - Arian Foster tweet of the week: "R.I.P. to the frog I ran over in my driveway. I didn't even see the little guy. Forgive me, frog gods." Don't count on it Arian. I hear the frog gods are some particularly vengeful mutherfuckers.

Oh I'm sorry, were you saying
something about a frog?

Pittsburgh by 4.5 over Oakland: The Pick - Steelers

So it would appear that last year's 8-8 record and signs of improvement were a smoke screen because the Raiders are terrible again. They never should've cut Kyle Boller. When your offensive line is that bad, you can't underestimate the value of having a quarterback who can throw it 60 yards from this knees.

Baltimore by 3 over New England: The Pick - Patriots (Ravens - 26 . . . . Pats - 24)

The Ravens' new fangled hurry-up offense was all fun and games until Joe Flacco went 6 for 20 in the second half while trying to protect a lead against the Eagles. To make matters worse, when they really needed the hurry-up to work (down by 1 inside of two minutes with two timeouts left), it failed them. Ravens fans were left scratching their heads trying to understand why the only attempt to get Ray Rice the ball on 3rd and 4th down with two yards to go was a bad angle out pattern that required Flacco to loft the ball over a linebacker who was nearly a foot taller then Rice. Then again, it's tough to criticize Cam Cameron for not calling a running play at any point during that drive when Rice is only averaging 6.4 yards per carry this year. (That was sarcasm).

Green Bay by 3 over Seattle: The Pick - Seahawks

Something ain't right about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense and the deafening noise in Seattle is only going to compound whatever it is. (Takes a lot of film study to come up with that kind of analysis).

"THAT'S IT . . . IF I HAVE TO COME DOWN THERE ONE MORE TIME, EVERYONE'S GOING HOME!!!" (My God, what have I become?).

Last Week's Record: 6-9-1 . . . Season Record: 13-18-1. (Ouch).

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Endnotes

"Yes, in hindsight maybe a game of duck
duck goose would have been more prudent."

* Our greatest undertaking to date was my elder son's 9th birthday party where we staged the Olympic games in our backyard right down to the march-on of the competitors to the theme song. Everything went smoothly until we decided to close the games with a tug-o-war. When it was over, our backyard looked like a scene from 300 with bodies scattered everywhere writhing in pain from rope burn. Some of the losers were still in tears when they received their silver medals. It was quite moving. Here's some home movie footage - Tug-O-War.

The Week 3 NFL Picks - Part 1

The self aggrandizing golf related preambles for last week's picks were so popular that we're going to run it back for at least one more week.* The material for this week is not quite timeline worthy but should be enough to get us rolling.

So last Friday I resumed my quest for some measure of success in the goddamn game of golf (from heretofore the "GDGG") having drawn the unenviable challenge of playing a +3 handicap in the first round of the club championship. I actually played the same opponent a couple of years ago, got up early and made it to the 15th hole where his steady play and my unforced errors (are there any other kind in golf?) closed me out. I figured that if I could follow the same formula this year, cut-out a couple of the mistakes and make a few putts, who knows?

"I'm so sorry . . . I think we have a
nice parting gift right over here."

So we both hit the first green in regulation (me with a 5-wood, him with what looked like an 8-iron) and right out of the gate I have the putt you do not want - a downhill/sidehill 30 footer that is going to roll-out at least a few feet below the hole no matter what. In the moment before I hit it, I think "for the love of God don't leave it above the hole" so I give it a little extra gas and leave myself an 8 footer coming back. He two-putts, I miss and the following sound immediately plays in my head - The Sound in My Head.

From that point forward I felt like I was trying to climb out of quicksand. I made a 10 footer for par to halve the second hole but hit a bad bunker shot on three and lost with a bogey. I halved four and five with pars but then he won six and seven with birdies to my pars. I got up and down from no man's land on 8 and then he lipped-out his putt for a third birdie in a row. By the time we got to the par-3 ninth, I was two over par and four down. I felt like I was in a tug-o-war with a sumo wrestler.

We had to wait for the green to clear and I made the mistake of looking at my phone (just to check the time of course as texting and emailing are illeeeeeeegal at Bushwood). There was a text from my wife which couldn't be good because she knew I was off the grid. I couldn't help myself but I wish I had because the message was that my daughter had broken her wrist. I promptly shanked my tee shot, made double and ended the front nine five down.

- It's ok . . . I'm pre-law.
- I thought you were pre-med?
- What's the difference?

Heading to the 10th tee, I wrestled with the dilemma of whether I should keep playing before finally deciding that, unless I learned some Mr. Miyagi shit on the drive over, adding me to the equation wasn't going to make it any better. Besides, at the rate we were going, this thing was going to be over in 20 minutes anyway. (Full disclosure: I also wasn't too keen on having a big "W/D" next to my name on the scoreboard. I'm sure I'll be pleasantly reminded of this decision during a heated exchange when she hits her teens). My second shot on ten hit the hill in front of the green bounced forward but then rolled back into my pitch mark. Not knowing what the rule was and wanting to keep this thing moving, I decided to play it and made bogey. In hindsight, that may have been an indication of what the golf gods thought of my decision to keep playing. I was now six down through ten.

I won eleven and halved twelve with two more pretty incredible up and downs (if I do say so myself) as my lob wedge put a hammerlock on the award for MVP of the bag. I got a gift win on thirteen and suddenly I was only four down with five to play. Crazier things have happened right? Well maybe . . . but not today. A bogey from 115 yards out in the middle of the fairway on fourteen and it was "snap back to reality . . . oh there goes gravity . . . oh there goes Rabbit, he choked . . ." You know the rest.

Here's one for those who
only know Kim Basinger
as a trailer park junkie.

As Yoda would say, a humbling game this is. Take away the three-putt on one, the ball in the divot on ten and the gag on the last hole and I'm two down with four to play and I've got a shot. That breaks down to one bad thought before a putt, one bad break and one poorly executed shot with a wedge. But it's those tight margins of error that make it a great game right? (Right?) You can't mishit a shot and then hustle down the rebound and shoot it again. It's over. It's on the scorecard and you can't get it back. I am literally shaking my head as I write this. So brutal. But man . . . I can't wait to get to the first tee today.

N.Y. Giants by 1 over Carolina: The Pick - Giants

Two teams that stunk-out the joint in week 1 with quarterbacks who can light it up as they showed in week 2. The temptation here is to give the Panthers an edge for the home field but the Giants are a better team on the road. I'm going with the theory that the Giants found themselves in the second half last week and that Cam Newton and the Panthers are still a year away from being a playoff team.

Endnotes

* This is a somewhat artful way of saying that I don't have time to pick all of the games between now and kickoff tonight because I'm teeing it up in an hour.

The Tour Championship Preview

I had a shot of Moore here but
opted for Catrinel Menghia of
the Fiat ads. You're welcome.

We've got two stellar weeks of golf on tap with the most loaded Tour Championship and Ryder Cup fields ever.* We'll get to the Ryder Cup next week but for now let's focus on a Tour Championship field that includes 21 of the top 22 players in the world with no Heath Slocums or Chez Reavies to drag it down. Your slouches are Carl Pettersson, Ryan Moore, John Senden, Robert Garrigus, Scott Piercy and John Huh, all of whom finished the regular season inside the FedEx Cup top 30 or are in the top 40 in the world.** Don't be surprised to see any of those guys contend because they each have their own motivations to get their hands on that $10M - Senden (credibility), Piercy (anger management classes), Moore (a stylist), Garrigus (weed), Pettersson (chocolate) and Huh (I don't know . . . a last name that doesn't sound like it came from a Monty Python skit?).  

Let's start with a review of my predictions which at this point have crushed my first two weeks of football picks (not saying much). Four of the six guys who I predicted would miss the Tour Championship after starting the Cup in the top 30 actually did just that (Mark Wilson, Ben Curtis, Kyle Stanley and Johnson Wagner).*** Scott Piercy slipped to 30th so I almost went five out of six. Of course my sixth pick, Phil Mickelson, actually climbed all the way to 4th and is one of the favorites to win the Cup based on his past success at East Lake and his recent switch to the claw putting grip. Phil could absolutely peak in time for us to believe that he's not going to get waxed at the Ryder Cup.

Of the seven who climbed into the top 30, I hit on three of them (Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott). I missed on Nick Watney, Louis Oostuizen, Ryan Moore and John Senden. Not bad though picking guys like Tim Clark, Bud Cauley and Andres Romero over Louis Oostuizen would be like picking a team quarterbacked by Jay Cutler to win a tough road game on national television. (At least I'm consistent).

So who is going to take down the prize so big that it gets distant second cousins thinking, "I'm sure he could spare at least ten grand"? The highest finisher from last year who is in the field is Hunter Mahan but he just lost to Rory McIlroy by 32 shots (really) and that's kind of hard to ignore so he's out. Adam Scott, Luke Donald and Bo Van Pelt always play well there but let's face it, they all have a mild case of choking dog syndrome and $10M will definitely tighten the collar down the stretch.

". . . . and we're just the guys to do it."

To quote one of the men who inspired me to go to law school, "no, I think we have to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part." (I actually think it's going to be Tiger, Rory and Phil but sometimes when you find a picture like this one, you just have to go with it). We are way overdue for a showdown between the best players in the world and the stage is absolutely set at East Lake as all three are playing great and have something to prove. In the end, I'm picking Phil. Partly because he's won this thing twice on this course but also because Phil likes money. I am convinced that there is a correlation between his solid play and phone calls from his accountant telling him that it's time to focus. He's not unlike Vincent Chase who would ramp it up every time his crew's lifestyle was threatened which makes this Tour Championship at East "Lake" Phil's Aquaman.****

Endnotes

* I'm not qualifying that statement or leaving it open for discussion. It's almost a fact in that it's probably more true than not true. (I learned this technique watching the political conventions).

"Nothing to see here . . . just
a janitor with a hand fetish
who looks like Han Solo."

** Well except for Moore who I just spent five minutes researching unsuccessfully trying to come-up with some stat about him that would support my "Super Field" theory. So now he gets buried in an endnote like the study results that led to the murder of Dr. Richard Kimble's wife by the one-armed man (which always seemed a little over the top to me especially when Tommy Lee Jones and Joey Pants followed the other random one-armed man into the hospital's prosthetics department . . . "Hey what do you know, we're looking for a one-armed man and there is a one-armed man walking into a room full of arms. What a coincidence").

*** There were actually seven that dropped-out of the top 30. The other three were Marc Leishman, Graeme McDowell and Bill Haas. Information for life.

**** That was a test. If you didn't wince at that, I'm not sure I want you as a reader.

The Week 2 NFL Picks - Part 3 of 3

It's time to complete this odyssey. (For Parts 1 and 2 click here Part 1 and here Part 2).

Sunday

9:00 a.m.: I woke-up feeling a little rocky. The good news was that it was going to be 80 degrees, the pool was open for one more day and the countdown to the start of Redzone began in about four hours. The bad news was that at some point around the end of the 1:00 games, I would have to jump in my car and drive 80 miles to go see Rush introduce their new "concept" album on stage (more on this later).

If you don't know who this is,
you are not watching football
to your full potential.

12:59 p.m.: My boys started the season's first one minute Redzone countdown. This has got to be going on in every frat house in America right? And even with this incredible invention, you know there is still one dickhead who insists on watching his team's game full-time on the big screen.

2:45 p.m.: It's already apparent that I could be in for a long fantasy football season as my no. 1 guys on each team, Drew Brees and Chris Johnson, are looking very shaky. I may have picked the wrong year to write a fantasy football preview.

4:00 p.m.: I swam a mile to close-out the pool season and hopefully generate a little adrenaline for that night's show. Maybe it was the Summer Olympics or maybe it was the cracking sounds my knees made every time I stood-up but I discovered the joy of swimming at some point that summer. With that being said, it is the worst hangover exercise ever. Every inadvertent gulp of water puts you at risk of being the reason the pool was shutdown for the rest of the day.

6:00 p.m.: I rallied with my boys at a sports bar in Northern Virginia where RG, III fever was already going viral after his performance against the Saints. This was getting worse not better but a few Blue Moon drafts started taking the edge off as they always do. I think it's the orange slice.

8:05 p.m.: We pulled into the parking lot and the show was already in full swing. As I learned from seeing Little Feat a couple years ago, rock bands in their 60's take that 7:30 start time very seriously.

This just in. Neil Peart is
stilling gettin' it done.

9:25 p.m.: We were on about our tenth song in a row that I had never heard before so the rumors that they were going to devote the second set to playing their entire new album, Clockwork Angels, were apparently true. You have never truly experienced buyer's remorse until you've listened to Geddy Lee sing unknown songs for an hour. Normally I can just zone out and watch Neil Peart wail away to get me through the weak spots in the set list but this was interminable.

9:45 p.m.: At least they closed strong with YYZ , Working Man and Tom Sawyer as an encore but I don't think I've ever heard a crowd of 20,000 collectively say "that's it?" when the lights go on.

10:30 p.m.: Back at the sports bar we caught the end of the Steelers getting drubbed by the Broncos. I have no feel for how the rest of the game went. All I knew was that I was watching Ben Roethlisberger get pounded and my mood was improving.

12:15 a.m.: For the second night in a row, I forced a bar staff to work overtime. Fortunately for this crew, the kitchen was closed so they were able to dump us on the poor bastards at the TGIFridays down the street.

1:00 a.m.: When you find yourself ordering pot stickers at the TGIFridays in Manassas, Virginia at 1:00 a.m. on a Monday morning, it might be time to start recalibrating your scale.

2:30 a.m.: At this late hour somehow three of us were back at the Candlewood Suites fixing the economy and ironing-out our political differences. Nothing fosters bi-partisanship like playing the home version of Crossfire for an hour and then sharing a hotel room bed together. Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid should give it a try sometime. You almost have to be civil when you know there could be a Planes, Trains and Automobiles moment in your immediate future.

Monday

"It stinks like sex in here."

10:00 a.m.: Someone finally decided to make a sound and asked, "what time is it, 6:30?" The room darkening shades in this place were unbelievable.

11:00 a.m.: I finally got some traction and hit 7-11 for a blueberry muffin and a bottle of water. Fortunately, my job involves construction and we had a site right down the road from my current location so the plan was to hit that for a midday visit and then head north and start preparing for the Ravens' Monday night home opener. Genius.

11:15 a.m.: Oh my God! Who's fucking bright idea was it to put on a hard hat and walk around a construction site?!? The noise was bad enough but the real peril was me trying to navigate the ladders and trenches. I had planned to stay for two hours but, after 45 minutes, I looked at my phone and announced with great urgency, "holy shit . . . I gotta go!"

2:30 p.m.: Thirty minutes on the treadmill had me ready to at least attempt one more shift. I think.

5:30 p.m.: Three soft chicken tacos and a few Pacifico's raised my status from doubtful to questionable.

6:30 p.m.: The buzz of the tailgate took me up one more notch and by kick-off, I had a full rally going. Then again, if you can't get your mojo back for a Monday night home opener, it's definitely time to pull-off the jersey and remove the ankle tape.

Ah the sights and sounds
. . . . and sights.

7:00 - 9:30 p.m.: The Ravens were dropping haymakers on the Bengals which kept me going into the 3rd quarter but by then I had switched to water and the yellow fuel tank light had come on. When Ed Reed recorded his umpteenth pick six, I knew it was time to go home.

So that's my 60 hour excuse for spreading the Week 2 NFL picks over four days. Sorry it ended with a whimper but stories like that usually do. On the bright side, last Friday was the first round of the club championship and I saw Weezer on Saturday night so we may be running this thing back as a sequel in three days. Stay tuned.

The Monday Night Pick

Atlanta by 3 over Denver: The Pick: Broncos

All week I had the Broncos in this game due to a lack of faith in Matty Ice. However, my picks have been so dismal to date, that I was then going to go the other way just to mix it up but I can't get away from (a) Peyton Manning, (b) in primetime and (c) in a dome so we'll stick to reasoning . . . for now.

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