The Week 2 NFL Picks - Part 2 of 3

And now for Part 2 . . . . (if you missed Part 1, check it out here - The Week 2 NFL Picks - Part 1).

4:30 p.m.: After leaving Kaos Gentlemen's Club (and if that doesn't make you want to read Part 1, then I don't even know who you are anymore) we decided to waste the rest of the afternoon in more traditional fashion by hanging-out in a sports bar watching golf.* If nothing else, we'd reduce the chances of catching something.

4:35 p.m.: We lost one member of our foursome who also happened to be our driver as we headed to one of the many Greene Turtles that has sprouted-up around Maryland over the past few years. (Remember when you'd say I'll meet you at the Turtle and all you had to know beyond that was which side of the bay you were on?)

And this was after a regular
season field hockey win.

4:37 p.m.: We walked into an almost empty bar with the bravado of three guys who just tore-up a strip club (I guess we were compensating) and immediately demanded that they change the channel to golf. The one guy sitting at the bar with his girlfriend watching the Notre Dame game came over the top a little too quickly and emphatically barked "NO GOLF!" and immediately there was tension. (It probably didn't help that I started audibly mocking him  . . . "NO GOLF, GOLF BAD, ME NOT LIKE GOLF").**

Then it started getting chippy as it always does when you're running with a University of Maryland grad which we were. (Graduates of Couch Burning University will throw-down at the drop of a visor). For the next hour it kind of simmered with the occasional stink eye being cast back and forth but nothing came of it. Frankly, we kind of lost our mojo when we discovered that the golf had been completely preempted in Baltimore by . . . wait for it . . . the Notre Dame game.

6:15 p.m.: I think we could all feel the situation heading towards a few rounds of shots and marriage counseling so we called a cab and headed back to the club to shower-up and put on a fresh face for the ladies.

"Who is that disgusting man?"

7:30 p.m. - 9:30 p.m.: Take Goodfellas, Reservoir Dogs and The Departed and add-up all of the F-Bombs uttered on screen.*** Now multiply that number by two and I think you'd be almost to my performance at dinner. I'm pretty sure that I did everything but ask the club president's wife if she wanted to make $14 the hard way ("Hey Ringo, Play Somethin' Hot").

10:00 p.m.: Note to the staff: When you're trying to get rid of the stragglers, do not have the O's - Yankees game on in the bar.

10:17 p.m.: O'S WIN . . . O'S WIN . . . O'S WIN!!! Yeah Teixeira was safe at first but . . . . O'S WIN!!!

11:05 p.m.: The bartender flipped me the keys and said "screw-it, just lock-up when you're done." We took this as a sign that it was time to leave.****

. . . . still 48 hours to go but we need to take another break to get some quick picks in for the record.

N.Y. Giants by 7.5 over Tampa Bay: The Pick - Bucs

Without reading too much into one game, this could be the year the Giants start slowly AND finish slowly. They all seem a little caught-up in their celebrity don't they? Case in point: Victor Cruz wrote a 304 page autobiography called Out of the Blue which is almost four pages for each of his 82 career receptions.

Hey Gisele. Missed
you this summer.

New England by 13.5 over Arizona: The Pick - Patriots

Tom Brady - Kevin Kolb > 13.5 points.

Minnesota by 1.5 over Indianapolis: The Pick - Colts

We're going to have a lot of these games this year pitting two young unpredictable quarterbacks against each other. Andrew Luck will be playing in friendlier confines this week against a less formidable defense so he gets the nod. This pick is also based on the odds agains the Vikings starting 2-0 and leading the NFC North at any point in the season.

New Orleans by 2.5 over Carolina: The Pick - Saints

I want to say the Panthers don't have the firepower to score the 29 points it's probably going to take to cover this spread but that's tough when RG, III just carved-up the Saints defense in the Superdome. I'm going to conveniently chalk that up to a week one aberration.

Buffalo by 3 over Kansas City: The Pick - Bills

I just can't take Matt Cassel playing on the road seriously. At the same time, that means taking Ryan Fitzpatrick and giving points. If you're able to convince yourself that one of these teams is actually worth betting, it may be time to call the hotline.

Philadelphia by 2.5 over Baltimore: The Pick - Ravens

This is one of the games Ray Lewis was looking at on the schedule when he decided to shed a bunch of weight and basically become a strong safety. The Ravens D tends to eat-up finesse offenses.

Well at least Tannehil's got one
attribute of a big time quarterback.

Oakland by 2.5 over Miami: The Pick - Raiders

I'm picking against the Dolphins as long as Ryan Tannehill is taking the snaps.

Cincinnati by 7 over Cleveland: The Pick - Bengals

See above but substitute Weeden for Tannehill. (If you think I'm kidding, check-out their combined Week 1 stats: 32 of 67 for 337 yards, no touchdowns and 7 interceptions. I mean we're talking Jake Delhomme playoff numbers).

Washington by 3 over St. Louis: The Pick - Redskins

How many times today is Jeff Fisher going to think to himself, "we should've traded Bradford instead of the pick"?

Houston by 7 over Jacksonville: The Pick - Texans

Blaine Gabbert against a presumptive playoff team? I feel like I must be missing something about this line but I'm going to take the bait anyway. Not to mention, I'm not betting against this guy . . . "I heard Jim Brown once say the gladiator can't change Rome. I love Jim Brown. But I disagree. I'll die trying my brother." - Arian Foster.

Dallas by 3 over Seattle: The Pick - Dallas

I'm a buyer on the Cowboys this year until they inevitably start proving me wrong. I didn't see any of Russell Wilson's debut but there certainly seems to be a lot of hype for a guy who threw for 153 yards with one touchdown and one pick in a 20-16 loss to the Cardinals.

Pittsburgh by 5.5 over N.Y. Jets: The Pick - Jets

Man I'm starting to worry about the Steelers and when I say "worry," I mean "revel in the fact that their offensive line appears to be in tatters and it's become open buffalo season on Big Ben." I don't buy the offensive outburst from the Jets last week but they should be able to score enough to stay within 5 points of a sputtering offense playing against their still solid defense.

San Diego by 6 over Tennessee: The Pick - Titans

If not for the Raiders back-up long-snapper pulling a Chuck Knoblauch last week, the Chargers would be starting the season in their traditional funk. It's going to get a little funky today.

San Francisco by 6.5 over Detroit: The Pick - 49er's

"Hey, I'm really sorry that I bumped
into you last year and that you
handled it like such an  a-hole." 

Matthew Stafford threw three picks against the Rams last week and it easily could have been five. Now he has to play one of the best and nastiest defenses in the league. I could actually see this one getting ugly for the Lions which would be great because I then envision the following scenario. Jim Harbaugh completely misreads the tone of the moment and jokingly bumps Jim Schwartz during the handshake followed immediately by Ndamukong Suh making him disappear from the screen and then we have Pacers-Pistons II but on a football field.

TO BE CONTINUED . . . .

Endnotes

* Sad to tell those of you who aren't there yet, but the Saturday afternoon sports bar experience becomes something of an oasis once you have kids.

** In hindsight, I'm pretty sure I was in the wrong on that one. I mean who walks into a sports bar during college football and demands golf? What an asshole.

*** I just moved Gutterballs to the top of my Netflix queue - Movies with the Most F-Bombs.

**** This didn't actually happen but I know it crossed the guy's mind. The country club bartender gig is pretty sweet right up to the point where you learn that you can't turn-up the lights and yell "LET'S GO PEOPLE!"

Last week's record: 7-9 . . . Season record: 7-9 (if you don't count me blowing the Thursday night game this week by picking Jay Cutler against the Packers in Lambeau which was like watching the guy in college feed his snake and saying, "I've got $5 on the mouse").

Click here for Part 3.

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The Week 2 NFL Picks - Part 1

On the eve of the Ryder Cup* and with week 2 of the NFL season looming, I find myself in a jam as I have prepared nothing. How did I manage to get myself into this predicament? Well as usual, it started on a golf course. (I feel a timeline coming on). In the words of Lewis Carroll, this is one of those stories where you just need to "begin at the beginning and go on till you come to the end . . . then stop":

Saturday

Is nothing sacred?

8:15 a.m.: It was that time of year again when I decide to stick my toe outside of my comfort zone and attempt to qualify for a spot among the 16 man field that will compete at match play for the honor of my club's champion.** This year I would catch a break as the qualifier was limited to one round and, as every little guy with a big mouth will tell you, the shorter the fight, the less chance of getting killed.

9:25 a.m.: The first hole is a long uphill par 4 and after pushing my drive right, I laid-up and made bogey which was consistent with my gameplan: (a) take your bogeys, (b) do not hit a 3-wood at a green and (c) never hit an uphill putt more than 3 inches past the hole (this course is a Tillinghast so anything beyond that gets very dicey). I may as well have put condoms on all of my clubs.

9:50 a.m.: My first emotional roller coaster came on the 3rd hole as I half-skulled a chip 20 feet above the cup and then made the par with a putt that would have rolled off the green and ended my day. I felt like I just avoided getting pancaked by an 18 wheeler on the beltway. This was supposed to be fun right?

9:55 a.m.: Standing on the 4th tee I saw one of my fellow 6 handicappers on the 8th tee. He was 4 over and wanted to bet $50. I accepted the bet, hit it to 4 feet and drained the putt for a 2. With apologies to the FGW, that may have felt better than . . . (don't say it) . . . let's move on.    

"You are such a pussy!"

11:05 a.m.: Skipping ahead to the 9th tee where I stood at 2 over after making just one bogey in the previous four holes. No. 9 is a 205 yard uphill par 3 that's probably playing about 225. A perfect 5-wood for me except for the fact that it's into a hurting cross-wind and I tend to hit my 5-wood higher than my 9-iron meaning that I would be introducing all kinds of big numbers if I go for it. So I laid-up on a par 3 and made 4.*** I know. I know.

1:30 p.m.: Let's jump ahead to the finish because there's nothing exciting about nine holes with 5 bogeys and 4 pars other than the fact that IT GOT ME IN AS THE 12TH SEED BABY!!! I screwed myself by three putting 16 and missing a 5 footer on 18 because erasing one of those mistakes would have bumped me up to the 9th seed. As it is, I have to play the same +3 handicap who beat me 4 & 3 two years ago. Then again, that year he crushed me by 20 strokes over two rounds in the qualifier and this year he only beat me by 5 so maybe I'll get to visit the 17th hole.

2:30 p.m.: This is when the fun began because I had planned a second 18 that afternoon with some friends followed by a post-round dinner with our wives (seemed like a good idea at the time). Suffice it to say that I was flying pretty high and the beer was flowing like wine (unfortunately, the women were not flocking like the salmon of Capistrano . . . yet . . . we'll get to that). We were cruising along until the 4th tee when the skies turned a freaky shade of purple and then burped-out a torrent of water that made it clear that we were done golfing for the day.

3:30 p.m.: We're sitting in the clubhouse bar with four hours to kill until dinner and someone said, "we should go to Kaos."**** That drew one of those laughs followed by silence followed by everyone looking at each other like, "what in the hell else are we gonna' do?"

"I don't care if your mom's meth
lab caught on fire, you're on the
schedule from noon til 6:00."

3:50 p.m.: We walk into Kaos and the best way I can describe it is if you imagined the Double Deuce in it's condition when Dalton first showed-up but instead of a raging Saturday night, picture it on a rainy Tuesday afternoon. There were three guys with house arrest bracelets shooting pool and a middle aged woman behind a bar that had a bucket on it to catch the rain water. As we approached, she dropped a line on us that will go down in infamy, "sorry boys, none of my girls have made it in yet today" and with that we became the answer to the question, "what's sadder than some 40 year old guys spending Saturday afternoon in a strip club?"

4:00 p.m.: (Yes we sat down and ordered a beer anyway). A girl came running in with a backpack like she was late for her waitressing shift at the Olive Garden and told us to give her five minutes. I remember thinking the personalized service was a nice touch.

4:05 p.m.: She hit the stage and jumped right into her act.

4:10 p.m. We all started looking at each other like, "what in the hell are we doing?" and took-off. The problem was that we still had three and half hours to kill until dinner and we were in what I like to call a "Zack Mayo situation."

This story still has about 54 hours left in it that I don't want to shortchange and I am out of time in this writing session so . . . . . .

. . . . . oh wait, I've got to make a pick.

Green Bay by 5.5 over Chicago: The Pick - Bears

People who want to look at the 49er's game last weekend as an aberration are ignoring the fact that that was the second time in a row that the Packers have been manhandled by a physical defense at home. For reasons I will cover in Part 2 of these picks, I didn't see a lot of this game but every time I looked-up from my bar stool, Aaron Rodgers was making the same "why is this happening" face that he made throughout the loss to the Giants in the playoffs last year. And don't look now, but here come the Monsters of the Midway with a healthy Jay Cutler sporting a giant chip on his shoulder. (Don't forget that it was in the NFC Championship Game against the Packers where Cutler went down with a suspect injury and was accused of being a wuss). All of the pressure is on the Packers tonight who do not want to fall two games behind the Bears with a second home loss. May not be enough to cost them the game but it should keep it close.

Endnotes

* So when I wrote this, I was under the impression that the Ryder Cup started tomorrow when it doesn't actually start for another two weeks. The bad news is that I'm an idiot but the good news is that I got a jump on the Ryder Cup Preview. Hey, it not's like I write a weekly golf . . . oh shut-up.

** I am a 6 handicap. This year 28 players attempted to qualify and 24 of them had handicaps between +4 and 3. The other four of us were hoping to shoot our best round of the year AND get lucky. As I chronicled last year (The Club Championship Preview), these circumstances have broken my way on only one other occasion. 

*** If you ever thought my writing lacked full disclosure, I hope that admission along with the Ryder Cup gaff convinced you. 

**** I'm not going to link to the Kaos Gentlemen's Club commercial on Youtube but, if you really want to get a feel for this scene, you should check it out.

Click here for Part 2.

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Week 1 NFL Picks

There are not many things tougher in the gambling world than picking opening week NFL games. The poster child for this supposition was the 2003 New England Patriots who cut team leader Lawyer Malloy just days before the season started and then watched him dance all over them as a member of the Buffalo Bills in a 31-0 week 1 blowout. I mean losing the opener is one thing but getting blistered 31-0 nothing was clearly an indication that they were in for a long season. So of course they won 14 of their next 15 games and beat the Panthers in the Super Bowl. It just goes to show you how misleading week 1 results can be.*

Here is the one thing we do know about today's NFL - quarterbacks matter more than ever. Before you say "duh," consider how much they really matter. Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees combined to go 41-7 in the regular season last year by simply outscoring people (their teams were the top three in total net points despite the fact that their defenses were mediocre at best). Also consider that 6 of the other 7 top rated quarterbacks went to the playoffs including Alex Smith.** The only guys from outside of the top 10 to make it were Joe Flacco (great defense and Ray Rice), Andy Dalton (fluke) and Tim Tebow (God). With that in mind, the analysis for every pick below and every pick this year for that matter is going to start with a quarterback comparison.

N.Y. Giants by 3.5 over the Cowboys: The pick - Cowboys

This match-up in the regular season is more of a coin flip than you think as Romo had more touchdowns and fewer picks than Eli last year and the Giants only won one more game. (But if this was a playoff game, fuggetabouit). At least half of these NFC East night games seem to be decided by a field goal or less. Combine that with the Super Bowl hangover and the early season malaise that often plagues the Giants and I'm taking the points.

Buck-up Jay . . . you're still
going to win the game.

Bears by 9.5 over the Colts: The pick - Colts

I get it. Rookie quarterback playing on the road against a physical team but there are two factors that I think will keep the Colts within range: (1) Andrew Luck is not going to give the game away and (2) Chuck Pagano is a great defensive coach and he's going to come up with a way to turn Jay Cutler over at least twice.

Eagles by 8 over the Browns: The pick - Eagles

Now take that analysis of the Bears-Colts game and flip it upside down as Brandon Weeden is going to gift wrap a couple of scores for the Eagles. It seems almost inconceivable that the Browns have been searching for a starting quarterback since they were reborn in 1999 and the three guys they had battling for the job this year were Weeden, Colt McCoy and Seneca Wallace. I must have missed the press conference where Pat Shurmur named Weeden the starter but I imagine it went something like this, "Browns fans, I know it's been a tough road and we appreciate your patience but I am here to tell you it is the dawning of a new day as we have found our starting quarterback. He's a 28 year old rookie who failed at baseball and then racked-up a ton of stats in the same pass happy conference where we found our last crappy quarterback. Brandon Weeden ladies and gentlemen!" (Blank stares).

Jets by 3 over the Bills: The pick - Bills

I actually agree with Rex Ryan when he says he doesn't see himself getting fired as a possibility. I mean his endless stream of bullshit is probably the only thing staving-off a fan revolt. The rest of the AFC just hopes the same can be said of GM Mike Tannenbaum who keeps pulling stunts usually reserved for the Redskins like signing a washed-up LaDanian Tomlinson and of course creating the impending Tim Tebow fiasco (is it too soon to give it a name like the "Tebasco"?). Don't sleep on the Bills this year. They were rolling last season until Fred Jackson broke his leg and Fitzy cracked some ribs.

Saints by 9.5 over the Redskins: The pick - Saints

"It's still $500 for a fishhook but
you've got to draw blood."

The last time the Saints played a home game after a hurricane hit New Orleans, they blew the favored Falcons off the field 23-3. Now they have the post-hurricane recovery, the bounty scandal and the motivation to win one for the gipper while Sean Payton serves his suspension. I also wouldn't put it past Gregg Williams to make a tribute cheap shot worth someone's while so if I were RG, III, I'd audible to a lot of running plays and save my coming out party for next week.

Patriots by 6.5 over the Titans: The pick - Patriots

This line seems about 10 points too low for a match-up between Jake Locker and Tom Brady. I do think Chris Johnson is going to bounce back strong this season but Belichik will plug that hole and the Titans are probably going to have to score at least 25 points to cover this number. Don't see that happening.

Vikings by 4.5 over the Jaguars: The Pick - Vikings

If not for the Cards-Seahawks game, this one could get the ugly stick of the week award. At best we'll have MJD and A.P. in very limited roles supporting a quarterback "duel" of Christian Ponder against Blaine Gabbert. On second thought, forget the straight bet on this game and take the under of 38.5 because they may not make it halfway there.

Texans by 10.5 over the Dolphins: The pick - Texans

"Well don't you see it?!?
. . . then pick it up!"

I didn't watch all of Hard Knocks but I did see the part where they talked about how meticulous Joe Philbin is and then showed him walking around picking-up little bits of trash by the practice field. I looked at the FGW and said "this guy won't be coaching next year." I'm pretty sure Mike Tomlin and the Harbaugh brothers don't spend much time picking-up trash.

Lions by 8.5 over the Rams: The pick - Lions

The Rams appear to be building for 2013 and beyond as they took the haul from the Redskins and parlayed it into more draft picks down the road. Then again, when you're paying $50M guaranteed to the 29th highest rated quarterback in the league, really all you can do is wait. This game could be a very pleasurable experience for Megatron owners along the lines of 10-175-2.

Falcons by 2.5 over the Chiefs: The pick -  Falcons

I don't care how much the Falcons devote themselves to the pass or how many weapons they give Matt Ryan because he is still going to be the very poor man's Tom Brady. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, Matt Cassel is the poor man's Matt Ryan.

Packers by 5.5 over the 49ers: The pick - Packers

Everyone needs to calm down a bit about the 49ers and remember that a few months ago Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman donned their hoodies and flew to North Carolina to watch Peyton Manning throw under the lights. These are the things you do when Alex Smith is your quarterback. Thanks to their weak division, I've got them going 10-6 this year and this game will be one of the 6.

This is so much easier than
googling golfer's wives and
girlfriends every week.

Panthers by 2.5 over the Bucs: The pick - Bucs

Cam Newton is a beast and, despite my efforts to find a downward trend in his performance last year once the league figured-out he could actually throw, I came up empty. He just threw less but more efficiently which is a sign of maturity. With that being said, you have to beware of the rookie college coach in his first NFL game at home. He's going to pull a bunch of Ra-Ra crap and find a way to keep this game in the teens which means at least a cover.

Seahawks by 2.5 over the Cardinals: The pick - Seahawks

The Seahawks signed Matt Flynn to compete for the starting job with journeyman Tavaris Jackson and then handed it to 4th round draft pick Russell Wilson and they STILL might have a better quarterback situation than the Cardinals who keep sending fruit baskets to Kurt Warner that say "Thinking of You." I'm basing this pick on the fact that the Seahawks defense was dropping the hammer on people at the end of last season and Marshawn Lynch was running with the same reckless abandon he had in his college days - Ghost Rider.

Broncos by 1 over the Steelers: The pick - Steelers

Count me among those who think Peyton Manning is going to win some playoff games for Denver but I just can't see how he's going to come in after a year off, with new receivers and beat the Steelers. Mike Tomlin has had that Demayrius Thomas touchdown running on a loop all through training camp and it's payback time.

Ravens by 6 over the Bengals: The pick - Ravens

For all of their faults, the Ravens do two things very well under Jim Harbaugh, win the first game of the season (4-0) and play well at home (27-5). They need to come out with their collective hair on fire Monday night and exercise the demons from the final minute of last season and they know it. I'll be stunned if Bernard Pollard doesn't earn a fine in this game. (I originally had a picture of "The Pass Play that Shall not be Named" here but it's still too soon).

Yes, you make a good case
for one of the other best
uniforms in sports.

Chargers by 1 over the Raiders: The pick - Chargers

The only reason not to take the Chargers is if you think they're going to take the first six games of the season off (and why wouldn't you?) However, the one thing that is currently being concealed by arguably the best uniform in sports is that the Raiders defense is terrible. Phillip Rivers is not going to throw 20 interceptions this year but Carson Palmer may do it by Thanksgiving. This is a 12-4 team v. a 7-9 team.

Endnotes

* Of course after I wrote this opening paragraph, I actually took the time to go back and look at the week 1 results from 2011 and discovered that the only really surprising outcome was that the Redskins beat the Giants 28-14. Unless you count the Ravens absolute manhandling of the Steelers, everything else that happened was a pretty good indicator of how the season was going to play out. The problem is that I had already done all of that research on the 2003 Patriots and I didn't want it to go to waste. I'm just going to act like nothing happened and, by the time we get to the picks, no one will remember the point I was trying to make anyway.

** The only one who didn't was Tony Romo who was the 4th highest rated passer in the league. He's currently sitting in the cluttered office of a Boston area community college teacher being told it's not his fault.

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The Fantasy Football Preview

Just in time for your last minute fantasy football drafts, we present the inaugural FGR Fantasy Football Preview (didn't everyone put off their draft until tomorrow night?). They say opinions are like assholes because everybody's got one and I am no exception (I'm referring to an opinion at this point*) but with the proliferation of fantasy football websites, there is no shortage of mock drafts, cheatsheets, auction values and sleepers out there so the challenge is to come up with a new way to express it so let's give this a shot. I'm going to take August 7th's ESPN "expert" mock draft** and go through it as if I had the 7th overall pick under the theory that the players I choose in each round will provide some insight as to where I see value this year (also known as the "Nerd Alert Theory" or N.A.T.). Here we go:

Round 1

"Just keep those pom poms
where we can see them."

1. Arian Foster; 2. Ray Rice; 3. Aaron Rodgers; 4. LeSean McCoy; 5. Calvin Johnson; 6. Tom Brady . . . and the FGR pick is - Drew Brees.

As a matter of full disclosure, I would take Brees with the #1 overall pick because he is the closest thing to Teldar Paper in this draft. Over the last four years, he has averaged 4,888 yards and 37 touchdowns per season. From weeks 9 through 17 this season, the only games he will play outside of a dome are at Oakland in week 11 and at the Giants in week 14. Oh yeah, last year Brees threw for 5,476 yards to go along with 46 touchdowns and this year he's going to be playing with a lousy defense and a chip on his shoulder after the whole Saints organization was essentially implicated in the bounty scandal.

Round 2

8. Chris Johnson; 9. Ryan Mathews; 10. Maurice Jones-Drew; 11. Larry Fitzgerald; 12. Mathew Stafford; 13. Roddy White; 14. Andre Johnson; 15. Rob Gronkowski; 16. Matt Forte; 17. Jimmy Graham . . . and the FGR pick is - Darren McFadden.

Here's what you need to keep in mind about McFadden. When he's even remotely healthy, he is the freakish love child of Eric Dickerson and Marcus Allen. Think of it another way. If I guaranteed you that McFadden, Rice, McCoy and Foster were all going to be healthy for 16 games this year, who would you take? I know that McFadden is the most fragile of that foursome but he also has infinitely more upside than what's still available at running back so I'm rolling the dice on him with the 18th pick.

Round 3

19. DeMarco Murray; 20. Hakeem Nicks; 21. Greg Jennings; 22. Jamaal Charles; 23. Steven Jackson; 24. Wes Welker; 25. Marshawn Lynch; 26. Trent Richardson; 27. Adrian Peterson; 28. Cam Newton; 29. Frank Gore; 30. Julio Jones . . . and the FGR pick is - Fred Jackson.

The worst game Fred Jackson had last year through week 8 was a 112 yard outing in week 1 and the only single digit fantasy game he had was against the stud Jets defense in week 9. Two weeks later he broke his leg which is not a lingering injury (as his preseason performance has shown). Why is he not a high second round pick? Probably because he doesn't have a fancy first name for a running back like Arian or LeSeasn and even the team he plays for has a boring name. A classic case of namism and I won't stand for it.

Round 4

32. Mike Wallace; 33. Michael Turner; 34. A.J. Green; 35. Brandon Marshall; 36. Victor Cruz; 37. Michael Vick; 38. Jordy Nelson; 39. Eli Manning; 40. Darren Sproles; 41. Marques Colston . . . and the FGR pick is -  Steve Smith.

I've never had Steve Smith, love watching him play and, when you look at the next four available wide receivers, he has the fewest question marks: Brandon Loyd (new team); Percy Harvin (injuries); Dez Bryant (maturity of an unruly 12 year old); Vincent Jackson (new team, injuries and maturity of an unruly 12 year old).

Round 5

Let's just say that
Decker's girlfriend didn't
 hurt his draft position.

43. Reggie Bush; 44. Ahmad Bradshaw; 45. Willis McGahee; 46. Dez Bryant; 47. Tony Romo; 48. Antonio Gates; 49. Percy Harvin; 50. Dwayne Bowe; 51. Stevan Ridley; 52. Vincent Jackson; 53. Roy Helu; 54. Brandon Loyd . . . and the FGR pick is - Eric Decker.

I love this pick as Decker is a healthier version of Austin Collie and he actually put up decent numbers while risking life and limb going over the middle chasing Tim Tebow buddy passes last year. The potential downside is that his success is 100% contingent on the health of a 36 year old quarterback who may or may not be able to turn his head but your pick in round 5 is bound to have a couple of warts.

Round 6

56. Jeremy Maclin; 57. Doug Martin; 58. Miles Austin; 59. Vernon Davis; 60. Steve Johnson; 61. Ben Tate; 62. Demaryius Thomas; 63. Jason Witten; 64. DeSean Jackson; 65. Aaron Hernandez . . . and the FGR pick is - Jermichael Finley.

I really wanted Aaron Hernandez in that spot as the natural move for Brady and Belichik this year is going to be keeping the same offensive structure but switching the primary target from Gronk to Hernandez. Finley looks like the last guy in the second tier to me as you then drop-off to Fred "Sleepy" Davis and Jason "If You Could Just Avoid Hitting Me in My Spleen I Would Really Appreciate it" Witten.

Round 7

67. Peyton Hillis; 68. DeAngelo Williams; 69. Antonio Brown; 70. Jonathan Stewart; 71. Michael Bush; 72. Beanie Wells; 73. BenJarvus Green-Ellis; 74. Pierre Garcon; 75. Shonn Greene; 76. Philip Rivers . . . and the FGR pick is - Peyton Manning.

I also try to avoid players with
readily available mug shots
before the 10th round.

Why not? At this point I'm picking back-ups that I don't plan to play in the first few weeks anyway. What's more likely to happen - (a) Manning returns to form and I start getting offers from the guys who drafted Vick and Romo or (b) a career underachiever like Robert Meacham, Malcom Floyd or Kenny Britt finally figures it out? By week four you could be flipping Manning for a Round 3 receiver like Greg Jennings or Hakeem Nicks and making a trade like that feels better than . . . . I'm going to stop there.

Round 8

78. Torrey Smith; 79. Robert Meacham; 80. Mark Ingram; 81. Tony Gonzalez; 82. Malcom Floyd; 83. 49ers D***; 83. Kenny Britt; 84; Toby Gerhart; 85. Isaac Redman; 86; C.J. Spiller; 87. Robert Griffith, III; 88. Fred Davis; 89. Matt Ryan . . . and the FGR pick is - Reggie Wayne.

Let's start with the fact that Andrew Luck looks ready to play. As for Wayne, he combined for 211 receptions and over 2,600 yards in 2009 and 2010 when Peyton Manning was throwing to him and last year he had 75 catches and almost 1,000 yards catching passes thrown by Curtis Painter, Kerry Collins and Dan Orlovsky. (But the Colts were in no way trying to get the #1 pick . . . riiiiiight). If they could come up with a formula to adjust receiver stats for the quality of the quarterbacks who threw to them, Wayne would have been a Pro Bowler in 2011 and, for that matter, Derrick Mason would be going to the Hall of Fame.

(At this point, I've lost track of how far apart my picks are so I'm just making one about every 12-14).

Round 9

91. Nate Washington; 92, Denarius Moore; 93. David Wilson; 94. Donald Brown; 95. Ben Roethlisberger; 96. Darrius Heyward-Bey; 97. Felix Jones; 98. Anquan Boldin; 99. Jahvid Best; 100. Lance Moore; 101. Matt Schaub; 102. Michael Crabtree . . . and the FGR pick is - Ryan Williams.

Time to begin stockpiling running backs with starter potential and no better place to look than the spot behind Beanie Wells and his array of personalized crutches.

Round 10

104. James Starks; 105. LeGarrette Blount; 106. Kevin Smith; 107. Santonio Holmes; 108. Titus Young; 109. Shane Vereen; 110. Mike Goodson; 111. Vincent Brown; 112. Daniel Thomas; 113. Tim Hightower . . . and the FGR pick is - Justin Blackmon.

OK so I may have been listening to NFL Radio when they randomly mentioned how much better Blaine Gabbert has looked this preseason which could mean as little as he isn't shrieking with fear anymore when his fullback fails to pick-up a blitz.

Round 11

115. Reuben Randle; 116. Randy Moss; 117. Texans; 118. Jay Cutler; 119. Jared Cook; 120. Josh Freeman; 121. Mike Tolbert; 122. Pierre Thomas; 123. Sidney Rice; 124. Brandon Pettigrew; 125. Danny Amendola; 126. Jacob Tamme . . . and the FGR pick is - Jacquizz Rodgers.

Michael Turner has had 5,000 carries over the past three years so the over/under on games he actually plays is about 9 which means I may have just drafted a 7 game starter in the 11th round. Not to mention, you do not pass-up an opportunity to draft a guy with a name that ends with two "z's" because that extra "z" has to stand for "zesty", "zippy" or some other quality that you want in a running back.

Round 12

128. Ravens****; 129. Kendall Wright; 130. Rashad Jennings; 131. Randall Cobb; 132. Tim Tebow; 133. Greg Little; 134. Carson Palmer; 135. Rashard Mendenhall; 136. Bears; 137. Alex Smith; 138. Steelers; 139. Bernard Scott; 140. Eagles . . . and the FGR pick is - Ben Tate.

"Don't make me come out of my
parents' basement and kick your ass."

This is the part where I should probably mention that I wouldn't have picked Arian Foster anywhere he would have been available because I'm convinced that he's going to be this year's bust and anyone who doesn't handcuff him with Ben Tate by the 12th round has no idea what he's doing. (I'm looking at you Eric Karabell).

Round 13

142. LaMichael James; 143. Alex Henery; 144. Mikel Leshoure; 145. Brian Quick; 146. Seahawks; 147. Jets; 148. Mike Williams; 149. Falcons; 150. Bills; 151. Stephen Gostkowski; 152. Mason Crosby; 153. David Akers . . . and the FGR pick is - Ronnie Hillman.

My sources tell me that he is going to be backing-up Willis McGahee's 30+ year old knees in Denver. Not to mention, Ronnie Hillman sounds like an NFL running back (these are the factors that come into play by the 13th round).

Conclusion

I'm going to clip it there because, as you can see from their 10 team format, the experts are rounding-out their rosters with kickers and I never pick kickers and defenses until the final two rounds (sometimes I won't draft a defense at all so I have one extra player to look at when I sob. . . . have had a day to reflect). I'd take a receiver with some upside with my final pick like Buffalo's David Nelson. So here is the team I am going into battle with which also serves as a pretty good representation of where I see value this year:

Starters

Meet David Nelson's "upside."

Drew Brees
Darren McFadden
Fred Jackson
Steve Smith
Eric Decker
Jermichael Finley
Kicker and Defense TBD

Reserves

Peyton Manning
Ryan Williams
Jacquizz Rodgers
Ben Tate
Ronnie Hillman
Reggie Wayne
Justin Blackmon
David Nelson

Endnotes

* For the record, I also have and sometimes am an asshole.

** I'm using a 10 team draft from ESPN because that is the most recent one available but I'm going to treat it as a 12 team draft which should work better because I'll be picking between different ESPN "experts." (The FGW gets really turned-on when I talk like that).

*** Whoever K.C. Joyner is, he just got busted down from the fantasy football level of "expert" to "proficient" for taking a defense in the 8th round.

**** Without Terrell Suggs, Jarrett Johnson and with a slimmed-down Ray Lewis, the Ravens will have more of a bend but don't break defense meaning that they're going to need Joe Flacco and Co. to keep other teams' offenses off the field to succeed. (The numbers 8-8 just started flashing in my head. Let's move on).