Fantasy Golf: The WM Phoenix Open

Last week on this occasional bane of my existence I recommended that you choose Hideki Matsuyama to win the Famers Insurance Open. I participate in a "league" that has way too much influence over my happiness and, prior to writing the Fantasy Golf Report ©, I picked Ludvig Aberg to win before remembering that he was a W/D the week before so I switched to Taylor Pendrith as a placeholder before finally settling on Matsuyama. This process would have worked for most people who don't possess the kind of crippling ADHD that has led me to abandon enough coats in bars and restaurants to clothe a medium sized village. 

Suffice it to say that I failed to switch the pick and Pendrith missed the cut. Meanwhile, Hideki was cruising along in 4th place when I discovered the gaff on Saturday afternoon at which point I promptly threw my reading glasses on the table in a petulant fit of disgust and declared the day, if not the entire weekend, officially ruined. By the ensuing second glass of red wine it became clear that the situation was unsalvageable. It was that bad. 

In related news, the most promising daily weather forecast over the next ten days is for Friday the 13th when the temperature will reach 40 degrees accompanied by some freezing rain. People on the east coast are morphing into a state of zombification as evidenced by the lady who I just watched walk into traffic on York Road as if getting hit by a car would have been the highlight of her day. I feel you zombie lady. I feel you.     

GOLF ANALYSIS

Scottie Scheffler has won 14 of his last 35 tournaments which is a win rate of 40% so, when evaluating a tournament where he is in the field, you now have to ask whether this is one of the roughly half he won't win. It's a tough case to make here considering he's won two of the last four, finished T3 one other time and only finished T25 last year because he was still recovering from a freak ravioli making incident. 

(For those keeping score, that's: Ravioli - 1 and Louisville Police Department - 0 when it comes to slowing down Scottie). 

He's +225 to win which is only giving him about a 31% chance - so not a bad bet even though he's got to beat 122 other professional golfers including 9 of the top 20 in the world for it to payoff . . . which is insane.

The one and done pick comes down to Cameron Young, Maverick McNealy and the still available Hideki Matsuyama. There was a time when Hideki was the only pick here after going T4, T2, 1st and 1st from 2014 through 2017. He hasn't been a slouch lately making the last seven cuts with an average finish of 22nd. At this point it comes down to whether last week's snafu resulted in karma that means pick him or don't pick him. I'm waiting for a sign but, as of this posting, it's a no. 

The case for Young over McNealy is slim but he appears to have more upside and on the verge of a breakout season after his first win last year and solid play since. In his last seven events he has five top 10's and no finish worse than last week's T22 at a tournament where he's neve done much. His last two finishes in Scottsdale were T12 and T8 so you figure he's going to improve in his current form. McNealy has been almost as solid of late and his last two trips to Scottsdale produced top tens. I'd put a top five bet on both of them and expect at least one to cash.

Speaking of winning bets, Sahith Theegala appears to be back after last week's T7 which we called at +670. Look for his resurgence to continue on a course where he has two top fives in the last four years. 

And with all of that being said, the best bet of the week is Adam Schenk top 40 at +265. He's no worse than T25 here the last three years and he finished T11 last week. Parlay that with a Cam young top five and you're getting about +1800. Just sayin'.

Place	Player	Odds
Winner	Cameron Young	+2450
Top 5	Maverick McNealy	+540
Top 10	Sahith Theegala	+390
Top 10	Rasmus Hojgaard	+390
Top 20	Michael Kim	+290

One and Done Pick: Cameron Young

Look at him. Just fucking
radiating stoic confidence.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Maverick McNealy

Sleeper Pick: Michael Kim

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Scottie Scheffler	$14,500
Cameron Young	$9,800
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,600
Maverick McNealy	$9,100
Sahith Theegala	$8,400
Jordan Spieth	$8,200
Rasmus Hojgarrd	$7,700
Daniel Berger	$7,500
Michael Kim	$7,200
Adam Schenk	$6,200

This week's chart is dedicated to Taylor Sheridan and Mumford & Sons. We've come a long way from the greatness of Hell or High Water and The Cave to whatever words you would choose to describe season 2 of Landman and Rushmere. The former is a slow motion train wreck that I now have to see through to the end out of pure morbid curiosity and the latter makes my ears bleed by the fourth note which is about as fast as I can get Alexa to change the station.

THE NOTHING GOOD LASTS FOREVER

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

We can't recommend everybody and, if this is one of those week's when you think I whiffed, take a hard look at Sam Burns along with past champions Nick Taylor and Brooks Koepka (twice). You know Brooksie wants to put one on the board and what better place than TPC Scottsdale in front of half a million fans on Super Bowl Sunday. I mean he is after all "built like a linebacker" (from 1952).    

	DK Price	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Scottie Scheffler	$14,500	T25	T3	1st	1st	T7
Xander Schauffele	$10,500	DNP	DNP	T10	T3	T2
Si Woo Kim	$9,900	T21	T12	T23	T26	T50
Cameron Young	$9,800	T12	T8	64th	T26	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,600	T25	T22	T29	T6	T42
Ben Griffin	$9,500	T36	T28	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sam Burns	$9,400	T49	T3	T6	MC	T22
Matt Fitzpatrick	$9,300	MC	T15	T29	T10	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$9,200	DNP	DNP	T42	MC	DNP
Maverick McNealy	$9,100	T9	T6	W/D	DNP	DNP
J.J. Spaun	$9,000	W/D	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Rickie Fowler	$8,900	W/D	MC	T10	MC	MC
Jake Knapp	$8,800	T44	T28	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brooks Koepka	$8,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	T3	1st
Harris English	$8,600	DNP	T17	MC	DNP	MC
Colin Morikawa	$8,500	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Sahith Theegala	$8,400	T57	5th	T39	T3	DNP
Chris Gotterup	$8,300	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$8,200	T4	T6	T6	T60	T4
Harry Hall	$8,100	MC	T41	DNP	DNP	DNP
Pierceson Coody	$8,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Corey Conners	$7,900	T74	T28	T50	T38	T17
Sepp Straka	$7,900	15th	DNP	DNP	66th	MC
M. Thorbjornsen	$7,800	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nick Taylor	$7,800	T25	1st	2nd	MC	MC
Matt McCarty	$7,700	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rasmus Hojgaard	$7,700	T12	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kurt Kitayama	$7,600	T49	T8	T23	DNP	DNP
Nicolai Hojgaard	$7,600	T36	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Wyndham Clark	$7,600	T16	T41	T10	MC	T36
Daniel Berger	$7,500	T2	T28	DNP	MC	MC
Hao-Tong Li	$7,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
J.T. Poston	$7,500	T16	MC	MC	T23	T11
Max Homa	$7,500	MC	MC	T39	T14	T42
C. Bezuidenhout	$7,400	T4	T28	MC	DNP	DNP
Garrick Higgo	$7,400	DNP	T49	MC	T21	DNP
Keith Mitchell	$7,400	T25	T17	T42	T10	MC
Min Woo Lee	$7,400	T12	T71	DNP	DNP	DNP
Andrew Novak	$7,300	MC	T8	DNP	DNP	DNP
Marco Penge	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Rodgers	$7,300	MC	DNP	T14	MC	MC
Thor Olesen	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Davis Thompson	$7,200	T36	T15	MC	DNP	DNP
Max Greyserman	$7,200	T49	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Michael Kim	$7,200	T2	MC	DNP	DNP	T58
Rasmus Petersen	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sam Stevens	$7,200	T44	T28	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jacob Bridgeman	$7,100	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kevin Yu	$7,100	T16	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max McGreevy	$7,100	MC	DNP	MC	MC	DNP
Rico Hoey	$7,100	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tony Finau	$7,100	DNP	DNP	T14	MC	DNP
Bud Cauley	$7,000	T21	65th	DNP	DNP	DNP
Chris Kirk	$7,000	MC	DNP	MC	T14	MC
John Keefer	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kristoffer Reitan	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Stephan Jaeger	$7,000	DNP	DNP	MC	T62	DNP
Akshay Bhatia	$6,900	T32	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Eric Cole	$6,900	MC	T49	DNP	DNP	DNP
Joel Dahmen	$6,900	MC	T41	T50	T62	MC
Ryo Hisatune	$6,900	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Vince Whaley	$6,900	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	MC
Alex Smalley	$6,800	T21	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brian Harman	$6,800	T25	T60	T42	T14	T36
Mac Meissner	$6,800	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nico Echavarria	$6,800	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Gary Woodland	$6,700	T21	MC	T42	MC	MC
Ryan Fox	$6,700	T63	T41	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tom Hoge	$6,700	MC	T17	MC	T14	MC
Emiliano Grillo	$6,600	76th	T22	MC	MC	T22
Mackenzie Hughes	$6,600	T36	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Tom Kim	$6,600	T44	T17	T50	DNP	DNP
Webb Simpson	$6,600	MC	DNP	T57	DNP	T42
Austin Eckroat	$6,500	MC	MC	DNP	64th	DNP
Billy Horschel	$6,500	MC	T41	T32	T6	T53
Davis Riley	$6,400	MC	DNP	MC	DNP	T58
Mark Hubbard	$6,400	MC	T53	MC	DNP	T30
Matthieu Pavon	$6,300	T63	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Schenk	$6,200	T25	T17	T23	MC	MC
Charley Hoffman	$6,100	MC	2nd	T14	67th	MC

Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.