Wednesday, August 20, 2025

Fantasy Golf: The Tour Championship Preview

Last Thursday morning before I drove my daughter's surfboard, a chair and a shoddy bookshelf (that would later fall apart in the elevator) down to North Carolina for her freshman year of college, I went to the doctor who is in charge of my deteriorating knee so that he could give me an update on the status of said deterioration. He wasted no time in delivering his assessment when he entered the room and, much to my surprise, he had good news for me as apparently I've accumulated enough miles on it to get a new one. Sweet. 

As is the case with most major life decisions, my first instinct was to immediately buy some time in the hopes that the problem would just go away. I therefore had them shoot me up so I'd at least be able to walk after surviving nearly eight hours of the modern hellscape that is the Mid-Atlantic highway system and the endless parade of shiftless morons who drive on it. To help pass the time, I tried to think of words you'd rather hear less than "knee" when filling-in the blank for . . . "hey, you're getting a new__________." 

I came up with the following top five in some particular order:

5. Mother In-Law
4. Tesla
3. Hangnail 
2. Tuition Bill 
1. Cellmate   

I have since done some research and apparently there are limited options in my situation with the two alternatives to surgery being: (1) Continued suffering, or (2) They shoot me which would certainly get some votes from people who've had to deal with me over the last six months and likely a few from further back than that (define "a few"). I actually wouldn't blame them as I'm sure spending time with a younger version of Larry David if he was in chronic pain with three kids and a real job has had its moments. Maybe they could do it as I'm getting out of the car after driving home from work. That would be somewhat poetic.       

GOLF ANALYSIS

I was correctly called-out last week for reusing Cameron Young before the end of the season but, in my defense, I kind of stopped giving a shit after the British Open. However, in the interest of journalistic integrity (or something), I will refocus this week and finish strong on the heels of what was a not awful set of picks for the BMW Championship

As a sign of my commitment, you will find not one but two Historical Performance Charts below. The first has the actual results from the last five Tour Championships and the second has the results after removing the impact of arguably the most hair-brained scoring system in the history of professional sports including pickleball. It's fascinating that when you compare the two charts, the obvious conclusion to be drawn is that Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy just really aren't that great at golf. Please don't come at me. It's science. 

What it also shows is that Viktor Hovland has an affinity for East Lake Golf Club which has always been a ball-strikers Shangri La and I somehow managed to avoid picking him so far this year so he's my main guy with Rory getting the "Other Guy" spot. I mean we all know that Scottie is going to win but I recommended him last week so to mix it up, Rory gets the nod. 

The Tour Championship is the one event over just about all others where past performance can dictate future success. It helps that only five players in this year's field have played it each of the last five years but there's also something about the course that tends to reward experience over most others. In that way it's kind of like Augusta's awkward little brother who only gets to come along because Augusta is so cool.   

To that end, the recommendations this week are stocked with players who've got some top ten finishes or at least experience playing the course. The one exception is Harry Hall who we expect to continue showing-up like a character in a Guy Ritchie show and keep wrecking shit. 

Place

Player

Odds

Winner

Viktor Hovland

+2800

Top 5

Collin Morikawa

+330

Top 10

Harry Hall

+185

Top 10

Akshay Bhatia

+200

Top 20

Sungjae Im

-175


One and Done Pick: Viktor Hovland
No matter the state of his game, Vik
is quite comfortable at Augusta Light.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Rory McIlroy

Sleeper Pick: Sungjae Im 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Rory McIlroy

$11,300

Russell Henley

$9,600

Viktor Hovland

$9,400

Justin Thomas

$9,100

Collin Morikawa

$8,300

Sepp Straka

$7,600

Harry Hall

$7,000

Akshay Bhatia

$6,700

Shane Lowry

$6,400

Sungjae Im

$6,200


Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.

As we sit here on our third consecutive dreary August day that makes it feel like we're living in a Cormac McCarthy novel set in Baltimore (bleak on bleak), we commemorate nearing the end of a truly miserable summer during which the weather alternated between oppressive heat and torrential downpours. I'm surprised the local greenskeepers haven't revolted. 

THE JOHN DEERE UPRISING
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART(S) 

This first chart has the goofy results . . . 

 

DK Price

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

Scottie Scheffler

$13,900

1st

T6

T2

T22

5th

Rory McIlroy

$11,300

T9

4th

1st

T14

T8

Ludvig Aberg

$10,100

16th

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tommy Fleetwood

$9,900

T20

T6

DNP

DNP

DNP

Russell Henley

$9,600

T4

T14

DNP

DNP

DNP

Viktor Hovland

$9,400

T12

1st

T15

T5

T20

Justin Thomas

$9,100

T12

DNP

T7

4th

T2

Patrick Cantlay

$8,700

T17

5th

T7

1st

DNP

Sam Burns

$8,500

T12

T9

24th

T18

DNP

Collin Morikawa

$8,300

2nd

T6

T21

T26

6th

J.J. Spaun

$8,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Cameron Young

$7,900

DNP

DNP

19th

DNP

DNP

Ben Griffin

$7,700

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sepp Straka

$7,600

T27

T14

T7

DNP

DNP

Hideki Matsuyama

$7,500

T9

DNP

T11

T26

T15

Robert Macintyre

$7,400

T17

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Keegan Bradley

$7,300

T21

T9

DNP

DNP

DNP

Maverick McNealy

$7,200

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Corey Conners

$7,100

DNP

26th

26th

T22

DNP

Harry Hall

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Harris English

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

T18

T12

Justin Rose

$6,800

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Akshay Bhatia

$6,700

26th

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Chris Gotterup

$6,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Brian Harman

$6,500

DNP

T23

T21

DNP

DNP

Shane Lowry

$6,400

T9

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Nick Taylor

$6,300

DNP

25th

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sungjae Im

$6,200

7th

24th

T2

T20

T11

Jacob Bridgeman

$6,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Andrew Novak

$6,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP


. . . and here is how they would've finished without the handicaps. 

 

DK Price

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

Scottie Scheffler

$13,900

3rd

T21

T13

T17

2nd

Rory McIlroy

$11,300

12th

T11

1st

14th

T7

Ludvig Aberg

$10,100

T19

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tommy Fleetwood

$9,900

T16

T9

DNP

DNP

DNP

Russell Henley

$9,600

4th

T13

DNP

DNP

DNP

Viktor Hovland

$9,400

T8

1st

15th

T4

T14

Justin Thomas

$9,100

7th

DNP

4th

T4

T3

Patrick Cantlay

$8,700

T19

T6

T16

T4

DNP

Sam Burns

$8,500

T13

T4

T25

T17

DNP

Collin Morikawa

$8,300

1st

T4

T19

28th

T7

J.J. Spaun

$8,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Cameron Young

$7,900

DNP

DNP

T19

DNP

DNP

Ben Griffin

$7,700

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sepp Straka

$7,600

T27

T6

T6

DNP

DNP

Hideki Matsuyama

$7,500

T16

DNP

T9

T26

T17

Robert Macintyre

$7,400

T16

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Keegan Bradley

$7,300

T27

T11

DNP

DNP

DNP

Maverick McNealy

$7,200

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Corey Conners

$7,100

DNP

T26

T25

T17

DNP

Harry Hall

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Harris English

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

T17

13th

Justin Rose

$6,800

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Akshay Bhatia

$6,700

T24

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Chris Gotterup

$6,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Brian Harman

$6,500

DNP

25th

T19

DNP

DNP

Shane Lowry

$6,400

T8

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Nick Taylor

$6,300

DNP

T21

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sungjae Im

$6,200

6th

T21

2nd

23rd

12th

Jacob Bridgeman

$6,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Andrew Novak

$6,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP


2 comments:

Anonymous said...

“You’re getting a new____” is hilarious. Doaker

Ronny Elliott said...

High praise from El Doaker. Thank you.