Fantasy Golf: The U.S. Open Preview

Every year for as long as anyone can remember, the company that pays me to be the "guy who reads things" has hosted a golf outing in early June. It's a standard scramble format that denies real golfers access to not one but two golf courses for nearly seven hours on a beautiful summer Wednesday morning (and a good part of the afternoon). 

I've played in it about five or six times. Once I actually stumbled into a foursome with a pulse and we won the damn thing but it is far more often the case that I get some combination of (1) the guy who plays once a year and is genuinely confounded about why he sucks, (2) the avid 35 handicap who can at least make a 12 foot putt if he gets lucky and combines a bad read with a mishit, and (3) the guy who thinks golf is stupid, would rather be fishing and won't shut the fuck up about it. 

After my latest four year sabbatical, I felt (as the best golfer in the company) that I should show my face again so I took a flyer on a group of guys who work for a real estate investment trust gambling that at least one of them would be able to play. I lost that bet. By a lot.

Now let me begin by saying that these were three lovely guys. Didn't take themselves or their breathtaking lack of golf if not basic motor skills too seriously. In fact, they almost came with warning labels. One had a complete matching set that arrived at his house just the day before and I didn't get the impression that shipment had been delayed due to the custom shafts. 

The guy I rode with had the good fortune of living next door to a lady who worked for the local public high school which gave her access to a "set" from the athletic department's closet of misfit equipment (seriously). Ironically, he turned-out to be the best of the three despite the fact that he never quite found a rhythm with either of his two putters.  

After debating a made-up excuse and an early departure, I committed to the cause in the name of team spirit and philanthropy as there was no way these guys could actually get a ball from the tee into the hole without me. 

To that point, Tommy "Two Putters" told me that he brought two dozen balls and hoped that would be enough. He lost the second fewest and finished with four so I would estimate that, with the twenty he lost and the one I hit into the water, our foursome combined to lose approximately seventy-eight golf balls that day. Over a six and a half hour round, that means we lost about one ball every five minutes. You're welcome Pinnacle.   

TWEET OF THE WEEK

We're going full golf dork for the Tweet of the Week because it is a major for fuck sake and anytime the inimitable Justin Ray is there to support my pick, I'm here for it. 

Thought this was a cool list

Most strokes gained total per round at U.S. Open last 50 years, min. 20 rounds played:

Xander Schauffele, 2.82
Tom Weiskopf, 2.53
Brooks Koepka, 2.44
Calvin Peete, 2.38
Tiger Woods, 2.36
Payne Stewart, 2.32
Scottie Scheffler, 2.26
Tom Watson, 2.18

— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) June 12, 2024

GOLF ANALYSIS

So much is made of Pinehurst No. 2's convexly plateaued greens that one would initially be led to believe that its natural predator would be a classic wedge and putter man like a Cameron Smith or Brian Harman. One would be loud wrong on that. (Spoken like one who would know). 

In 2014, Martin Kaymer took this place apart with his tee to green game opening with a pair of 65's and then cruising to an eight shot win over Rickie Fowler and Erik Compton. Most telling, however, was the five-way tie for 4th which included Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Henrik Stenson, Keegan Bradley and Brooks Koepka . . . five guys who are far better known for the shots they hit hard. It's also worth noting that a young Brooks Koepka posted his first ever top five in a major on this golf course before he'd won on either the PGA or European Tour. 

As much as I hate to say it, you almost have to pick a LIV guy here. This is really your last chance to use Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau or Jon Rahm and Rahm just bailed because his wittle toe hurts. (Sorry but I have no patience for Rahm's clown show nonsense anymore even if he is really hurt). 

That leaves Brooks v. Bryson and, as I told someone today, if I pick Bryson and Brooks wins, then Father's Day will be made even more miserable than it already is. (It's ok to admit what we all know). I can live with the opposite outcome even though a DeChambeau win would be more depressing than finding-out he's your son's favorite player which thank god hasn't happened to me yet. Maybe because my kids hate golf and don't have favorite players. Not quite sure why.

Of course you should pick Scottie Scheffler if you have him available and, at +260, his odds to win a U.S. Open against one of the most stacked fields ever are both outrageous and intriguing. He's that good right now and what's even scarier is that he rolls into every tournament assuming he's going to win. 

The rest of the picks are a veritable who's who of ball-striking royalty and they don't even include Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland or Ludvig Aberg. That's how ridiculously deep this field is. My gut tells me that the top of this leaderboard is going to look a lot like 2022 in Brookline. I may have inadvertently backed-into that theory but, when I looked up, I had five guys from that top ten.  

Finally, take advantage of the fact that you can get U.S. Open studs like Harris English and Denny McCarthy in the +900 range. English has a 3rd, 4th and T8 over the last four years and McCarthy has gone T7 and T20 the last two. Some guys are just built for this test and some guys aren't. I'm looking at you Cameron Young and Corey Conners (as a dozen readers immediately scramble to bet that parlay).  

One and Done Pick: Brooks Koepka

Also, how can you not like this
absolute specimen who is built
like a high school strong safety?

Other Guy I'd Pick: Scottie Scheffler

Sleeper Pick: Harris English 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Scottie Scheffler	$13,000
Brooks Koepka	$10,000
Collin Morikawa	$9,400
Tommy Fleetwood	$8,500
Matt Fitzpatrick	$8,200
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,000
Shane Lowry	$7,700
Sam Burns	$7,200
Harris English	$6,700
Denny McCarthy	$6,700

This week's chart is a plea for support as I re-enter the world of "competitive" country club golf tomorrow after a two-year hiatus. If my swing was currently a racehorse, the announcers would be describing it in a very somber tone . . .  "Oh this doesn't look good at all."

                                     THE PLEASE PRAY FOR MY PUTTER

                                     HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

My two takeaways from this chart are: (1) the USGA has been doing a pretty good job lately of setting-up the courses to at least get the best players into the top ten, and (2) Will Zalatoris may have the ideal game for this course . . . if you dare.

	DK Price	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Scottie Scheffler	$13,000	3rd	T2	T7	DNP	MC
Rory McIlroy	$12,100	2nd	T5	T7	T8	T9
Xander Schauffele	$11,500	T10	T14	T7	5th	T3
Jon Rahm (Out)	$10,900	T10	T12	1st	T23	T3
Bryson DeChambeau	$10,100	T20	T56	T26	1st	T35
Brooks Koepka	$10,000	T17	55th	T4	DNP	2nd
Viktor Hovland	$9,800	19th	MC	W/D	T13	T12
Ludvig Aberg	$9,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Collin Morikawa	$9,400	T14	T5	T4	MC	T35
Patrick Cantlay	$9,200	T14	T14	T15	T43	T21
Wyndham Clark	$9,000	1st	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Justin Thomas	$8,900	MC	T37	T19	T8	MC
Cameron Smith	$8,700	4th	MC	MC	T38	T72
Max Homa	$8,600	MC	T47	MC	MC	DNP
Tommy Fleetwood	$8,500	T5	MC	T50	MC	T65
Will Zalatoris	$8,300	DNP	T2	MC	T6	DNP
Matt Fitzpatrick	$8,200	T17	1st	T55	MC	T12
Tony Finau	$8,100	T32	MC	MC	T8	MC
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,000	T32	4th	T26	T17	T21
Jordan Spieth	$7,900	MC	T37	T19	MC	T65
Tyrell Hatton	$7,800	T27	T56	MC	MC	T21
Shane Lowry	$7,700	T20	MC	T65	T43	T28
Sahith Theegala	$7,600	T27	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Cameron Young	$7,500	T32	MC	MC	DNP	MC
Dustin Johnson	$7,400	T10	T24	T19	T6	T35
Jason Day	$7,400	MC	DNP	DNP	T38	T21
Tom Kim	$7,300	T8	23rd	DNP	DNP	DNP
Min Woo Lee	$7,300	T5	T27	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sam Burns	$7,200	T32	T27	MC	DNP	DNP
Corey Conners	$7,200	MC	MC	MC	MC	DNP
Sungjae Im	$7,100	MC	MC	T35	22nd	DNP
Byeong Hun An	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	T16
Justin Rose	$7,000	MC	T37	MC	MC	T3
Rickie Fowler	$7,000	T5	DNP	DNP	T49	T43
Alex Noren	$6,900	MC	MC	DNP	T17	MC
Russell Henley	$6,900	T14	MC	T13	DNP	DNP
Brian Harman	$6,900	T43	T43	T19	T38	DNP
Adam Scott	$6,900	MC	T14	T35	T38	T7
Keegan Bradley	$6,800	MC	T7	DNP	MC	MC
Si Woo Kim	$6,800	T39	MC	T40	MC	MC
Dean Burmester	$6,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Harris English	$6,700	T8	T61	3rd	4th	T58
Denny McCarthy	$6,700	T20	T7	DNP	DNP	DNP
Thomas Detry	$6,700	DNP	DNP	MC	T49	DNP
Austin Eckroat	$6,700	T10	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Taylor Moore	$6,600	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Billy Horschel	$6,600	T43	MC	MC	T38	T32
Daniel Berger	$6,600	DNP	MC	T7	T34	T49
Nicolai Hojgaard	$6,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tom Hoge	$6,500	MC	MC	T46	DNP	T43
Sepp Straka	$6,500	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	T28
Ryan Fox	$6,500	T43	MC	DNP	MC	MC
Kurt Kitayama	$6,500	MC	MC	DNP	MC	DNP
Akshay Bhatia	$6,500	DNP	DNP	T57	DNP	DNP
Nick Taylor	$6,400	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	T43
J.T. Poston	$6,400	MC	DNP	T40	MC	DNP
Lucas Glover	$6,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	T17	MC
Tiger Woods	$6,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	T21
Gary Woodland	$6,300	T49	T10	T50	MC	1st
Erik van Rooyen	$6,300	DNP	MC	MC	T23	T43
Eric Cole	$6,300	T39	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Chris Kirk	$6,200	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Hadwin	$6,200	59th	T7	T40	54th	DNP
Mackenzie Hughes	$6,200	T49	T24	T15	MC	DNP
C. Bezuidenhout	$6,200	DNP	DNP	T31	55th	DNP
Stephan Jaeger	$6,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	T34	DNP
Phil Mickelson	$6,100	MC	MC	T62	MC	T52
Emiliano Grillo	$6,100	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	T59
Webb Simpson	$6,000	DNP	MC	MC	T8	T16
Matthieu Pavon	$6,000	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Brendon Todd	$6,000	DNP	DNP	MC	T23	MC
Mark Hubbard	$6,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Nick Dunlap	$5,800	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Martin Kaymer	$5,700	MC	DNP	T26	MC	T35
Matteo Manassero	$5,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP

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