Fantasy Golf: The Masters Preview

It's no secret that the FGR has stumbled into a bit of a rough stretch having not made a worthwhile pick since Ben An finished runner-up in Hawaii like two years ago (or so it seems). To make matters worse, my real live golf game has taken a high arching swan dive into a dumpster fire over the past couple weeks after a very promising March when those shots I hit while playing by myself felt as easy as other people's Sunday mornings. 

Everything may have converged on rock bottom last weekend with the woefully mediocre pick of Christian Bezuidenhout along with my two thoroughly uninspiring rounds sandwiched around a night out that left me looking for answers and other more tangible things like my clubs. And my car. Normally we save those shenanigans for the Tuesday night of this week but I'm still on Masters event probation due to "The Incident" so last Friday night had to step up.     

After traipsing through another 18 holes of utter shit golf, I decided to avail myself of the clubhouse bar and most of what it had to offer. It was happy hour and I was in search of some happy which traced its usual path through a few pints and into a bottle of the club's "second cheapest Pinot Noir." I was advised by the connoisseur with whom I was splitting it that going with the cheapest was a rookie move. Who was I to argue?  

It soon became time to move-on once every conceivable conversation that could be had at a country club bar had been had (there are like five tops) and I sensed the swelling murmurs from the dining crowd of "does anyone know that man's name?" I sent out some feelers and the best option to come back was a Grateful Dead cover show at the local standing room only theater where I once heard the Marshall Tucker Band perform Heard it in a Love Song but only after declaring that they thought the song sucked so they hated playing it. I always kind of respected them for that.  

I was able to sidestep the doorman by blending-in with the smoking crowd because nothing says you're there to "roll away the dew" like a pair of green lululemon pants and a striped golf shirt with a pretentious gold logo. It was a testament to the generous nature of your average Dead fan that many were willing to share with this odd man who for some reason showed-up dressed like their dad. 

After bumping into way more people than I expected (some of whom I even knew), it was time to head home. A walk that took ten minutes earlier in the evening took at least twice that long on the way back. The difference was staggering (heyoooo). 

Saturday morning arrived quickly and, despite my lingering medicated state, I STILL managed to wake-up before my alarm went off and just in time to track down my car (parked by the theater) and my clubs (at the course I played the day before). I made my tee time with eight minutes to spare, rolled a couple putts and proceeded to stripe my driver down the middle en route to yet another train wreck of a round. 

The grind continues.    

TWEET OF THE WEEK

In my further efforts to unfuck my karma, I went out yesterday and stared straight at the eclipse for the better part of ten minutes. Didn't really mean to. Just couldn't stop myself from looking right at it. As a result, I think either my Masters picks are going to kick ass or I'm going to develop the world's most useless superpower. Like the ability to read the minds of goldfish ("swim . . . swim . . . eat . . . swim . . . oh great, now I'm dead").   

Oops I did it again 🤭 #TotalSolarEclipse pic.twitter.com/JXPe26qq3Q

— NASA Moon (@NASAMoon) April 8, 2024

GOLF ANALYSIS

Well this is the moment I've been waiting for after resisting the urge to use Scottie Scheffler at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players only to suffer through both like the Winklevoss twins at a Mark Zuckerberg Ted Talk. This is the week I either look like a genius or a dumbass with no middle option. The fact that I just learned that his wife is expecting which could lead to an early departure was less than comforting and may have caused an immoderate response for which I owe his family an apology.   

I actually wrote about this scenario about ten years ago when Hunter Mahan bailed in the middle of the Canadian Open while sitting on a two-shot lead. One might wonder if he would've made a different decision had he known that he only had one more win in him and his career would effectively be over three years later. Players in a similar position (ahem . . . Scottie) may want to consider the case I made for finishing the tournament in The Mahan Conundrum which was written back when I was good for more than just these hack previews. (Actually, in the end I caved while noting that you'd probably find yourself staring-up at your own version of Lorraine Bracco and the barrel of a pistol).    

While Scheffler is the clear choice to win, even the odds on that of +450 are so stupid that we need to look elsewhere for some value. Due to the limited field, there's not much point in looking past the top 20 unless you want Eric Cole at even money to make the top 40 (you don't). If you insist on going down that unsightly road, at least take Gary Woodland at +125.  

Back amongst the contenders, here's what we like:

Xander Schauffele	Top 5	+350
Cameron Young	Top 10	+350
Sahith Theegala	Top 10	+350
Cameron Smith	Top 10	+400
Nick Taylor	Top 20	+400
Thorbjorn Olesen	Top 20	+450

Schauffele has played the Masters six times and, in the last five, he has a T2, T3 and T10 to his credit. I still think this is the major he eventually wins so I'd also throw some love in that direction at +1400. 

Cam Young, Sahith Theegala and the undervalued Cam Smith are all in the +350-400 range to finish top ten so I'm rolling them into a reckless parlay (is there another kind?). I also love Nick Taylor to finish top 20 but my affinity to Canadians should be factored into that decision. For a deep sleeper, I recommend Thorbjorn Olesen who has played here three times and never missed the cut. Of course two of those were in 2013-14 but that's neither here nor there.   

I'm mostly shying away from the LIV players because (a) I do not like them, and (b) I find it very hard to believe that they're going to live-up to last year's success. The hype surrounding Joaquin Niemann in particular has spread like wildfire as hype often does but forgive me for not feeling it for a guy who has played the last fourteen majors without finishing better than T16. Jon Rahm and/or Brooks Koepka will probably finish top five but I don't see the longer shots like Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Reed doing much and yes that is in part because I despise them as much as I like Canadians.     

One and Done Pick: Scottie Scheffler

Remember Scottie, you're not 
actually delivering the baby and
all of that co-breathing is bullshit.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jon Rahm

Sleeper Pick: Nick Taylor

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Scottie Scheffler	$12,100
Xander Schauffele	$9,900
Jordan Spieth	$9,300
Cameron Smith	$8,900
Cameron Young	$8,500
Shane Lowry	$8,000
Sahith Theegala	$7,700
Russell Henley	$7,200
Nick Taylor	$7,000
Thorbjorn Olesen	$6,500

 

Before excusing myself from the festivities on Friday, I did get to belt-out my most sentimental Dead song like it was the floor of RFK Stadium in 1991 all over again (sigh). 

 

                                    THE BABY WON'T YOU CARRY 

                                   MEEEEE BACK TO TENNESSEE

                               HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

We have our usual top heavy chart this year but there is one outlying green box near the middle that we'd be remiss if we didn't address. Look, if you really want to bet Tiger, there is a "make the cut" parlay available with Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay and Justin Thomas for +300. I cannot in good faith sanction anything else.   

	DK Price	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Scottie Scheffler	$12,100	T10	1st	T18	T19	DNP
Jon Rahm	$11,200	1st	T27	T5	T7	T9
Rory McIlroy	$10,800	MC	2nd	MC	T5	T21
Brooks Koepka	$10,200	T2	MC	MC	T7	T2
Wyndham Clark	$10,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Xander Schauffele	$9,900	T10	MC	T3	T17	T2
Joaquin Niemann	$9,600	T16	T35	T40	DNP	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$9,500	T7	T27	T21	DNP	T32
Patrick Cantlay	$9,400	T14	T39	MC	T17	T9
Jordan Spieth	$9,300	T4	MC	T3	T46	T21
Will Zalatoris	$9,200	W/D	T6	2nd	DNP	DNP
Ludvig Aberg	$9,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,000	T16	T14	1st	T13	T32
Cameron Smith	$8,900	T34	T3	T10	T2	T51
Dustin Johnson	$8,800	T48	T12	MC	1st	T2
Justin Thomas	$8,700	MC	T8	T21	4th	T12
Tony Finau	$8,600	T26	T35	T10	T38	T5
Cameron Young	$8,500	T7	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Collin Morikawa	$8,400	T10	5th	T18	T44	DNP
Max Homa	$8,300	T43	T48	MC	MC	DNP
Bryson DeChambeau	$8,200	MC	MC	T46	T34	T29
Sam Burns	$8,100	T29	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Shane Lowry	$8,000	T16	T3	T21	T25	MC
Mattew Fitzpatrick	$7,900	T10	T14	T34	T46	T21
Brian Harman	$7,800	MC	MC	T12	DNP	DNP
Jason Day	$7,700	T39	DNP	MC	MC	T5
Sahith Theegala	$7,700	9th	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sungjae Im	$7,600	T16	T8	MC	T2	DNP
Tyrell Hatton	$7,600	T34	52nd	T18	MC	T56
Tommy Fleetwood	$7,500	33rd	T14	T46	T19	T36
Corey Conners	$7,500	MC	T6	T8	T10	T46
Tom Kim	$7,400	T16	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Reed	$7,400	T4	T35	T8	T10	T36
Min Woo Lee	$7,300	MC	T14	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rickie Fowler	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	T29	T9
Justin Rose	$7,200	T16	MC	7th	T23	MC
Russell Henley	$7,200	T4	T30	DNP	DNP	DNP
Akshay Bhatia	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Scott	$7,100	T39	T48	54th	T34	T18
Si Woo Kim	$7,100	T29	T39	T12	T34	T21
Stephan Jaeger	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harris English	$7,000	T43	DNP	T21	DNP	DNP
Phil Mickelson	$7,000	T2	DNP	T21	T55	T18
Nick Taylor	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	T29	DNP
Chris Kirk	$6,900	T23	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Cam Davis	$6,900	DNP	46th	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mattieu Pavon	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tiger Woods	$6,800	W/D	47th	DNP	T38	1st
Sergio Garcia	$6,800	MC	T23	MC	DNP	MC
J.T. Poston	$6,800	T34	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Keegan Bradley	$6,700	T23	DNP	DNP	DNP	T43
Ryan Fox	$6,700	T26	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sepp Straka	$6,700	T46	T30	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nicolai Hojgaard	$6,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Byeong Hun An	$6,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Erik van Rooyen	$6,600	DNP	MC	DNP	W/D	DNP
Adam Hadwin	$6,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Eric Cole	$6,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jake Knapp	$6,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adrian Meronk	$6,500	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nick Dunlap	$6,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Luke List	$6,500	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Thorbjorn Olesen	$6,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	T21
Taylor Moore	$6,400	T39	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kurt Kitayama	$6,400	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Bubba Watson	$6,400	MC	T39	T26	57th	T12
Gary Woodland	$6,400	T14	MC	T46	MC	T32
Emiliano Grillo	$6,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	T62
Danny Willett	$6,300	MC	T12	MC	T25	MC
Charl Schwartzel	$6,300	T50	T10	T26	T25	MC
Lucas Glover	$6,300	DNP	T30	DNP	MC	DNP
Austin Eckroat	$6,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Lee Hodges	$6,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Peter Malnati	$6,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Denny McCarthy	$6,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Grayson Murray	$6,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Schenk	$6,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Zach Johnson	$6,100	T34	MC	MC	T51	T58
Camilo Villegas	$6,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Fred Couples	$6,000	T50	MC	MC	MC	DNP

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