Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Fantasy Golf: Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview

My current TV binge situation is The Offer starring Miles Teller about the making of The Godfather. It's a is a fitting choice for a guy who's last two picks were Will Zalatoris and Maverick McNealy because it's about a film studio in desperate need of a hit movie. If I'm Paramount head Robert Evans in this scenario, then picking Jon Rahm at the TOC was my Rosemary's Baby and my career rides on finding my Love Story this week. 

Trust me, it will all make sense if and when you watch the show and what a ridiculously fun show it is. Let's start with the casting of Giovanni Ribisi as a pudgy up and coming New York mobster and Matthew Goode playing Robert Evans way over the top which is the only way he should be played. The rest of the cast including Juno Temple (Ted Lasso) are also spot-on and Teller can't seem to star in anything I don't like. Even the guy who plays Al Pacino does a commendable job. ALLLLL PACINO!!! ATTICA . . . ATTICA . . .ATTICA . . . 

And the subject matter is so damn good that the story writes itself even if it's probably only 75% true. I mean you've got the making of arguably the most iconic film of all time and Frank Sinatra trying to pull strings with the mob to get it shutdown before they even finish the script. It's got corporate suits trying to fuck-up the creative process and high strung talent under the direction of a man about to go on one of the greatest four movie runs ever (The Godfather, The Conversation, The Godfather Part II and Apocalypses Now). 

Ignore the 57% critic rating on Rotten Tomatoes and go with the 94% audience score because this is one of those times when the masses know better. One critic actually suggested that you'd be better off watching The Godfather saga. Well duh sparky. That's like reviewing the Baconator and saying you'd be better off having lobster thermidor. Jackassery of the highest order.   

TWEET OF THE WEEK

Proud of our former Baltimore Sun guy for crafting this tweet which perfectly captures the not even remotely subtle douchiness of Jim Nantz calling the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

GOLF ANALYSIS

Here's a fun fact. There have been five PGA tournaments in 2023 and all of them have been won by guys with four letters or less in their names. That means that I have to pick Tom Hoge, Aaron Wise, some other jamoke or that trend is discontinued. I'm going with the latter. In fact, I'm going with maybe the longest name available that's not Bezuidenhout.

There was a time before most of you were born that you could just dial-in Hideki Matsuyama here and then go about your day. He had a run from 2014-2017 where he went T4, T2, Win, Win but then in 2018 I picked him and he rewarded me with the dreaded W/D. Since then, he has made four straight cuts including a T6 last year. He also just finished T9 at the Farmers Insurance Open. It's payback time for 2018.

This field is flat loaded and frankly I haven't been this excited for a non-major since I got to attend the Doral Ryder Open in 1997 with all access open bar VIP pass. (I wrote about that experience here). If Cameron Tringale hadn't cashed-out instead of trying to build on the momentum of his 2014 Franklin Templeton Shootout title, you could get him for like a paltry $7,400 this week. That makes Matsuyama all the more defensible because if you're going to pick someone to beat seventeen other top twenty players, you might as well go with a guy who (a) has won here, and (b) you probably aren't saving for a major. Cased closed. 

However, if you did want to look elsewhere, it's hard not to like Xander Schauffele (I mean he's pretty dreamy) and Justin Thomas. In the last five years at TPC Scottsdale, they are a combined 129 under par with Schauffele getting only the slightest of nods based on recent performance. Does that -129 number make me think twice about picking Matsuyama? HELL NO!!! (yes).  

A few more fun facts:
  • Sahith Theegala finished 3rd last here year and should've won if not for a horrible if not Shakespearean tragedy level bounce.
  • Rickie Fowler had a Hidekiesque run in the desert from 2016-19 when he went 2nd, T4, T11 and win. And he looks like he's finding some semblance of his past form. 
  • Brendon Todd, who finished T2 last week, has never missed the cut here (in two attempts - though they were a respectable T26 and a T22).

One and Done Pick: Hideki Matsuyama
Come on Sunshine. Bust
me outta this slump!!!

Other Guy I'd Pick: Xander Schauffele 

Sleeper Pick: Scott Stallings 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Xander Schauffele

$10,000

Justin Thomas

$9,800

Hideki Matsuyama

$9,400

Cameron Young

$8,900

Sahith Theegala

$8,500

Rickie Fowler

$8,000

Brian Harman

$7,400

Keith Mitchell

$7,400

Brendon Todd

$7,100

Scott Stallings

$6,900


This week's chart honors my tortured right shoulder which last week went from stabbing nerve pain on Thursday to five games of basketball on Saturday and then twelve holes of golf on Monday to being heavily medicated with a bottle of Pinot Noir tonight.

                              THE FGR'S BELEAGURED ROTATOR CUFF
                                  HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

I know I'll probably regret saying this but I don't get all of the love for Jon Rahm this week. His only top five here was way back in 2016 and TPC Scottsdale seems like a course he should've been lighting-up at least twice in the six years since. Maybe this is the week but I'm not buying it against this field of desert foxes.

 

DK Price

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

Jon Rahm

$11,000

T10

T13

T9

T10

T11

Rory McIlroy

$10,800

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Scottie Scheffler

$10,300

1st

T7

MC

DNP

DNP

Xander Schauffele

$10,000

T3

T2

T16

T10

T17

Max Homa

$9,900

T14

T42

T6

T26

DNP

Justin Thomas

$9,800

T6

T13

T3

3rd

T17

Colin Morikawa

$9,700

DNP

DNP

T25

DNP

DNP

Patrick Cantlay

$9,500

2nd

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Hideki Matsuyama

$9,400

T6

T42

T16

T15

W/D

Viktor Hovland

$9,300

MC

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Sungjae Im

$9,200

DNP

T17

T34

T7

DNP

Tom Kim

$9,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Matt Fitzpatrick

$9,000

T10

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Cameron Young

$8,900

T26

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jordan Spieth

$8,700

T60

T4

MC

DNP

MC

Sam Burns

$8,600

MC

T22

MC

MC

DNP

Sahith Theegala

$8,500

T3

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tyrrell Hatton

$8,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

T15

DNP

Taylor Montgomery

$8,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Shane Lowry

$8,200

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

T65

Tommy Fleetwood

$8,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Rickie Fowler

$8,000

MC

MC

T37

1st

T11

Jason Day

$7,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Billy Horschel

$7,800

T6

T53

T9

T39

T43

Si Woo Kim

$7,800

T26

T50

MC

MC

T62

Corey Conners

$7,700

T38

T17

T45

DNP

DNP

Keegan Bradley

$7,700

T26

T22

T49

T67

T43

Aaron Wise

$7,600

MC

66th

MC

DNP

DNP

Alex Noren

$7,600

T6

DNP

DNP

T44

T21

Seamus Power

$7,600

MC

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

K.H. Lee

$7,500

T38

T2

MC

DNP

DNP

Maverick McNealy

$7,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tom Hoge

$7,500

T14

MC

T25

T44

MC

Brian Harman

$7,400

T14

T36

T49

T39

DNP

Keith Mitchell

$7,400

T10

MC

T16

73rd

DNP

Russell Henley

$7,400

T33

T30

MC

T15

MC

Taylor Pendrith

$7,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Chris Kirk

$7,300

T14

MC

MC

T50

T11

Gary Woodland

$7,300

MC

MC

T40

T7

1st

J.J. Spaun

$7,300

DNP

DNP

T47

T50

W/D

J.T. Poston

$7,300

T23

T11

T37

T26

DNP

Matt Kuchar

$7,300

MC

T42

T16

T4

T5

Brendan Steele

$7,200

MC

T30

MC

MC

T3

Denny McCarthy

$7,200

MC

MC

T59

T33

DNP

Garrick Higgo

$7,200

T21

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Lucas Herbert

$7,200

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Wyndham Clark

$7,200

MC

T36

T34

DNP

MC

Adam Hadwin

$7,100

T26

T50

T40

T44

T43

Brendon Todd

$7,100

T26

T22

DNP

DNP

DNP

Joel Dahmen

$7,100

T62

MC

W/D

MC

DNP

C. Bezuidenhout

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Trey Mullinax

$7,100

DNP

DNP

MC

T15

DNP

Davis Thompson

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Andrew Putnam

$7,000

MC

T7

MC

MC

DNP

Francesco Molinari

$7,000

T43

DNP

DNP

DNP

T40

Harris English

$7,000

DNP

MC

T16

MC

MC

Webb Simpson

$7,000

DNP

T42

1st

T20

MC

Kurt Kitayama

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Taylor Moore

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Beau Hossler

$6,900

MC

MC

66th

T39

T17

Cameron Champ

$6,900

DNP

MC

DNP

T67

DNP

Luke List

$6,900

T53

T30

T25

MC

T26

Russell Knox

$6,900

T33

T53

T16

T10

MC

Scott Stallings

$6,900

T21

T36

DNP

MC

T23

Mackenzie Hughes

$6,900

DNP

DNP

MC

MC

MC

Hayden Buckley

$6,800

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Kevin Kisner

$6,800

T38

DNP

DNP

T26

DNP

Ryan Palmer

$6,800

DNP

T42

MC

T60

MC

Davis Riley

$6,800

DNP

T58

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sam Ryder

$6,800

T23

57th

T55

T60

DNP

Emiliano Grillo

$6,700

MC

T22

MC

T33

T57

Martin Laird

$6,700

T14

MC

T55

T26

T9

Stewart Cink

$6,700

T43

T58

DNP

T50

DNP

Aaron Rai

$6,700

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Erik Van Rooyan

$6,700

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Matthew NeSmith

$6,600

MC

T7

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Rodgers

$6,600

MC

MC

T16

MC

MC

Patton Kizzire

$6,600

T10

T50

T61

MC

T31

Kevin Streelman

$6,500

MC

T22

MC

T50

T40

Nate Lashley

$6,500

MC

T17

T3

DNP

DNP

Nick Taylor

$6,500

MC

MC

T49

MC

T52

Peter Malnati

$6,500

65th

DNP

MC

DNP

MC

Scott Piercy

$6,500

MC

DNP

T6

T20

MC

Adam Svensson

$6,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP


Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.

2 comments:

lee ho fook said...

Over under on Aces at 16 this weekend? I'm throwing 4 out there.

Ronny Elliott said...

Aggressive but I like it. I'll take 2 with one from a guy in contention on Sunday. Place will go bananas.