Saturday, December 4, 2021

The FGR's Week 13 NFL Picks

During the Ravens-Bears game a couple weeks ago, the announcer dropped this random little factual nugget, "if the Ravens go on to win this game, it will be their 13th in a row over NFC opponents." It turns-out that the Ravens haven't lost to an NFC team since October 28, 2018 when the Panthers got them 36-21. They have been Nolan Ryan to the NFC's Robin Ventura over the last four years going 13-2. I assume I would have known all of this if I could tolerate the cheese grater to the inner ear that is Baltimore local sports talk radio but I can't so I apologize if this is common knowledge among the caw caw purple camo crowd. 

Anyway, it got me thinking about a couple things (yes two at the same time): 

"I love the smell of analog
electronics in the morning."
(1) The Ravens success against the NFC kind of undercuts my weekly rant about how the likes of the Bears, Giants and Falcons are always getting their ass kicked by the Steelers and Browns and that's more or less true as they are 9-5-1 and 8-7 respectively against the other conference respectively (the Bengals are 4-11-1). However, the Ravens' 13-2 record against the NFC is the kind of "yeah but" fact that tends to blow your argument right out of the water like, "hey you know the Samsung S7 Edge had a really nice camera . . . yeah but . . ."


(2) I really miss writing about football. So as we ease our way back into a routine for the real start of golf season, let's pick a few random NFL games.

Dolphins by 6 over the Giants: The Pick - Dolphins 

Miami is THAT team this year. The one that lost six games in a row but has now won four in a row and will probably make the playoffs. Tua continues to improve (completing over 70% of his passes) and the defense has only allowed 46 points over the lasts four games. Sure it was against the Texans, Ravens, Jets and Panthers but I don't make the schedule. Also, the Giants are one of those teams hiding a deep stink under the cologne of wins over the likes of other sneaky stinky teams like the Raiders, Panthers and Saints. Take the Fins, give the points.

Chiefs by 9.5 over the Broncos: The Pick - Broncos 

As I am sure we are all aware, Broncos quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has a career record of 41-18-1 (68.3%) against the spread. To put that in some kind of perspective, Tom Brady is 206-144-8 (57.5%) and Aaron Rodgers is 127-88-6 (57.4%). Of course the reason for that is that Bridgewater is perennially underrated because he doesn't do anything particularly well except keep his team close. But you know what? If Gunnery Sargent Hartman was coaching the Broncos he'd say "Teddy Bridgewater doesn't throw very hard and he can't really run anymore but he's got guts and guts is enough!"  

49ers by 3 over the Seahawks: The Pick - 49ers

As the Rams slowly implode under the inevitability of Matthew Stafford being Matthew Stafford, the 49ers are emerging by default as the NFC dark horse. Obviously that depends on the precarious health of Jimmy Garoppolo but at least he's starting this week. As of now. I think. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are in freefall and would be in the midst of a two month losing streak if they didn't get Jacksonville in the middle of it. Yes Russell Wilson missed some games but he's been back for the last three and they've scored a total of 28 points. That's not very good.    

Ravens by 4.5 over the Steelers: The Pick - Steelers

Look I have full faith that the Ravens are going to pull this thing out in some bullshit fashion but it's going to take a Justin Tucker field goal to do it. Not to mention, you can't give 4.5 points to a home team in an AFC North match-up. Especially this season and double especially after said home team just got a Yellowstone horse thief trailer ride from another divisional opponent. (The Steelers were the thieves, the Bengals were the trailer and if you don't get the reference, we might run out of things to talk about rather quickly). 

Bonus Pick! Georgia - Alabama Over/Under 49.5: Take the Under

The line on this game is 6.5 and, if not for Georgia's historically epic ability to never win the games that really matter, they would be a virtual lock. But this is all about the mismatch of Nick Saban v. Kirby Smart and the certainty that the Bulldogs' offense is going to play tight because they always do. Combine that with their vicious defense and we're looking at a final score in the vicinity of 21-17. Probably in favor of the Crimson Tide. Sorry Oklahoma State. No soup for you. 

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1 comment:

Doaker said...

Glad you’re back. Love your work! El D.