I devote a fair amount of time on this site to self-deprecation so that you don't think that I always think that I'm the smartest guy in the room which I definitely don't think (at least not always). However, the fact is that I do possess two qualities that should make me good at this picking golfers thing:
(1) I have absorbed way too much golf knowledge over the past 30 years starting when I got a job in a golf store and spent countless hours over the winter watching and re-watching Jack Nicklaus' Golf My Way video to the point where I could quote every arrogant voice-cracking line of it ("if you want to hit a fade, just adjust your grip and open your stance . . . dumbass"); and
(2) I'm smart in the ways of useless information (not like everybody says like dumb . . . I'm smart) like knowing that Aaron Baddeley plays Riviera CC way better than any other golf course. Yes, that fact actually occupies space in my brain that could be reserved for more important things like what time I'm supposed to pick my kids up from soccer practice and the combination to any of the three locks in my gym bag and the names of the people I work with and pass in the hall everyday ("what's up chief?!?").
So with that being said, everyone needs to stop telling me that I'm "actually" having a good year so far. I appreciate the backhanded compliments but this brief run of success has been somewhat inevitable. If for no other reason than I would eventually have to accidentally start guessing right. It's a combination of multiple theories at work . . . chaos, stopped clock and blind squirrel. And with that jinx now firmly in place . . .
TWEET OF THE WEEK
I was going to feature the tweet exchange where I offered Joel Dahmen a 70/30 split on my DraftKings winnings if he made the cut to which he responded "What a great deal!!!" He then went out on the weekend and shot 67-70 to finish tied for 14th. So now I owe him $2.40 but it sure feels like it should be the other way around. Anyway, I like this tweet better because it describes roughly 98% of my relationships:
After a bit of a bumpy run from 2011 through 2015 when Riviera Country Club screwed around with winners and runner-ups like John Merrick, James Hahn, Aaron Baddeley and Charlie Beljan, this tournament has settled into a pretty nice groove of quality leaderboards regularly featuring the likes of Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas and Bubba Watson. Sure you're going to get your occasional Scott Brown or Wesley Bryan in the mix but they are now the exception.
Unfortunately, you can't just pick the best players to win (unless you work for PGATour.com or the Golf Channel) so who do you leave out when deciding between D.J., J.T., Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Tiger Woods when they're five of the top eight players in the world and they've all had success here in the past? Well here's how I would rank them this week and you should know that this is derived primarily from the facts that (a) I am still clinging to the idea that Justin Thomas is the best player in the world but just hasn't proven it yet and (b) I'm still pissed-off at D.J. for his final round 78 last week.
1. Justin Thomas
2. Jon Rahm
3. Roy McIlroy
4. Dustin Johnson
5. Tiger Woods
I actually think this is a week when all of the value is in the $7,000 - $9,800 range. Bubba, Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau are all steals for under $10,000 and the fact that you can get Paul Casey, Matt Kuchar, Sergio Garcia, J.B. Holmes and Kevin Na for under $8,000 is ridiculous. Then you add-in the likes of Brendon Todd, Charles Howell, III, Cameron Smith and Alex Noren for $7,500 or less? Fuggedaboutit Mikey.
One and Done Pick: Bubba Watson
Other Guy I'd Pick: Patrick Cantlay
Sleeper Pick: Patrick Rodgers
DraftKings Top Ten Values
The list of guys I considered is so loaded with potential that it was hard to limit it to fifty players but here you go. If you need a low budget filler, check-out Scott Stallings, Martin Laird and even the aforementioned Aaron Baddeley who won here in 2011. (See how I circled back to that Aaron Baddeley reference? Pretty clever huh?)
THE JOEL DAHMEN IS MY NEW BESTIE
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
(1) I have absorbed way too much golf knowledge over the past 30 years starting when I got a job in a golf store and spent countless hours over the winter watching and re-watching Jack Nicklaus' Golf My Way video to the point where I could quote every arrogant voice-cracking line of it ("if you want to hit a fade, just adjust your grip and open your stance . . . dumbass"); and
 |
| "I want respect!" |
So with that being said, everyone needs to stop telling me that I'm "actually" having a good year so far. I appreciate the backhanded compliments but this brief run of success has been somewhat inevitable. If for no other reason than I would eventually have to accidentally start guessing right. It's a combination of multiple theories at work . . . chaos, stopped clock and blind squirrel. And with that jinx now firmly in place . . .
TWEET OF THE WEEK
I was going to feature the tweet exchange where I offered Joel Dahmen a 70/30 split on my DraftKings winnings if he made the cut to which he responded "What a great deal!!!" He then went out on the weekend and shot 67-70 to finish tied for 14th. So now I owe him $2.40 but it sure feels like it should be the other way around. Anyway, I like this tweet better because it describes roughly 98% of my relationships:
BETTER THAN JUST OK FANTASY GOLF ANALYSISHow to make friends as an adult:— Emily McKenna it is Winter (@EmilyMcWinter) February 5, 2020
1. Say "we should hang!"
2. Do not hang.
3. Say "we should hang!" 6 months later.
4. Cancel.
5. Reschedule.
6. Respect their cancelation.
7. Reschedule.
8. Actually hang.
9. Say "we should do this more often!"
10. Die.
After a bit of a bumpy run from 2011 through 2015 when Riviera Country Club screwed around with winners and runner-ups like John Merrick, James Hahn, Aaron Baddeley and Charlie Beljan, this tournament has settled into a pretty nice groove of quality leaderboards regularly featuring the likes of Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas and Bubba Watson. Sure you're going to get your occasional Scott Brown or Wesley Bryan in the mix but they are now the exception.
Unfortunately, you can't just pick the best players to win (unless you work for PGATour.com or the Golf Channel) so who do you leave out when deciding between D.J., J.T., Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Tiger Woods when they're five of the top eight players in the world and they've all had success here in the past? Well here's how I would rank them this week and you should know that this is derived primarily from the facts that (a) I am still clinging to the idea that Justin Thomas is the best player in the world but just hasn't proven it yet and (b) I'm still pissed-off at D.J. for his final round 78 last week.
1. Justin Thomas
2. Jon Rahm
3. Roy McIlroy
4. Dustin Johnson
5. Tiger Woods
I actually think this is a week when all of the value is in the $7,000 - $9,800 range. Bubba, Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau are all steals for under $10,000 and the fact that you can get Paul Casey, Matt Kuchar, Sergio Garcia, J.B. Holmes and Kevin Na for under $8,000 is ridiculous. Then you add-in the likes of Brendon Todd, Charles Howell, III, Cameron Smith and Alex Noren for $7,500 or less? Fuggedaboutit Mikey.
 |
| Kind of sad to see that Riviera CC had to go the route of a big dumb swimming pool to attract new members. (Wait what? Different Riviera CC?) Never mind. |
Other Guy I'd Pick: Patrick Cantlay
Sleeper Pick: Patrick Rodgers
DraftKings Top Ten Values
Justin Thomas
|
$11,000
|
Patrick Cantlay
|
$9,800
|
Bubba Watson
|
$9,600
|
Tony Finau
|
$9,100
|
Jordan Spieth
|
$8,400
|
Sergio Garcia
|
$7,800
|
Kevin Na
|
$7,600
|
Brendon Todd
|
$7,400
|
Jason Kokrak
|
$7,100
|
Patrick Rodgers
|
$6,800
|
The list of guys I considered is so loaded with potential that it was hard to limit it to fifty players but here you go. If you need a low budget filler, check-out Scott Stallings, Martin Laird and even the aforementioned Aaron Baddeley who won here in 2011. (See how I circled back to that Aaron Baddeley reference? Pretty clever huh?)
THE JOEL DAHMEN IS MY NEW BESTIE
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
DK Price
|
2019
|
2018
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
| |
Rory McIlroy
|
$11,600
|
T4
|
T20
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jon Rahm
|
$11,200
|
T9
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Justin Thomas
|
$11,000
|
2nd
|
T9
|
T39
|
T54
|
T41
|
Tiger Woods
|
$10,400
|
T15
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Dustin Johnson
|
$10,000
|
T9
|
T16
|
1st
|
4th
|
T2
|
Patrick Cantlay
|
$9,800
|
T15
|
T4
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Bubba Watson
|
$9,600
|
T15
|
1st
|
W/D
|
1st
|
T14
|
Brooks Koepka
|
$9,400
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Hideki Matsuyama
|
$9,300
|
T9
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T11
|
T4
|
Xander Schauffele
|
$9,200
|
T15
|
T9
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Tony Finau
|
$9,100
|
T15
|
T2
|
MC
|
MC
|
T56
|
Adam Scott
|
$9,000
|
T7
|
T53
|
T11
|
T2
|
DNP
|
Jason Day
|
$8,800
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Marc Leishman
|
$8,700
|
T4
|
MC
|
MC
|
T5
|
MC
|
Patrick Reed
|
$8,600
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T59
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Justin Rose
|
$8,500
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T4
|
T16
|
DNP
|
Jordan Spieth
|
$8,400
|
T51
|
T9
|
T22
|
MC
|
T4
|
Phil Mickelson
|
$8,300
|
T37
|
T6
|
T34
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Abraham Ancer
|
$8,200
|
T44
|
T68
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Colin Morikawa
|
$8,100
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Sungjae Im
|
$8,000
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Paul Casey
|
$7,900
|
T25
|
T49
|
T39
|
T39
|
T2
|
Matt Kuchar
|
$7,800
|
T28
|
T26
|
T22
|
T8
|
DNP
|
Sergio Garcia
|
$7,800
|
T37
|
DNP
|
T49
|
MC
|
T4
|
J.B. Holmes
|
$7,700
|
1st
|
T60
|
T34
|
T11
|
T22
|
Matthew Fitzpatrick
|
$7,700
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Kevin Na
|
$7,600
|
T33
|
T2
|
T4
|
MC
|
T61
|
Ryan Moore
|
$7,600
|
T28
|
T9
|
MC
|
10th
|
T22
|
Branden Grace
|
$7,500
|
MC
|
T37
|
T22
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Cameron Smith
|
$7,500
|
T49
|
T6
|
T28
|
T63
|
DNP
|
Charles Howell, III
|
$7,500
|
6th
|
T37
|
T15
|
75th
|
T61
|
Max Homa
|
$7,500
|
T37
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Brendon Todd
|
$7,400
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T14
|
Scottie Scheffler
|
$7,400
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Alex Noren
|
$7,300
|
DNP
|
T16
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Joaquin Niemann
|
$7,300
|
T44
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Keegan Bradley
|
$7,300
|
T51
|
MC
|
T34
|
MC
|
T4
|
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
|
$7,300
|
T25
|
T26
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Adam Hadwin
|
$7,200
|
75th
|
T6
|
T34
|
T16
|
T22
|
Nick Taylor
|
$7,200
|
T33
|
T41
|
T55
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Scott Piercy
|
$7,200
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Chez Reavie
|
$7,100
|
MC
|
T73
|
MC
|
7th
|
DNP
|
Jason Kokrak
|
$7,100
|
T37
|
T20
|
T22
|
T2
|
T41
|
Matthew Wolff
|
$7,100
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Bud Cauley
|
$7,000
|
MC
|
T20
|
T61
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Lanto Griffin
|
$6,800
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Patrick Rodgers
|
$6,800
|
T15
|
T26
|
T22
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Martin Laird
|
$6,500
|
MC
|
T9
|
T8
|
T11
|
DNP
|
Scott Stallings
|
$6,400
|
MC
|
T4
|
DNP
|
MC
|
66th
|
Aaron Baddeley
|
$6,300
|
T49
|
T14
|
MC
|
T26
|
MC
|
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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