The NFL Wild Card Round Picks

When I wrote in the preamble for the Week 17 picks that I was doing them for the sake of finishing what I started, I kind of figured that the season would effectively be over for me at that point because there was no way Bill Simmons' karma police* were going to give the Ravens a shot by having the Chiefs beat the Chargers, especially after Alex Smith went down with a lacerated spleen. (The poor guy was just going along without a clue that he would be collateral damage in the conspiracy to keep the Ravens down and someone came along and stuck him with a shiv . . . at least that's what I'm assuming happened). But lo and behold, the Chargers went and opened the door by doing typical Charger things meaning that all the Ravens had to do was win at home against a team on a four game losing streak starting its third string quarterback. I mean how hard could that be?

The answer? Pretty damn hard as they found themselves trailing the Browns and Connor Freakin' Shaw 10-3 heading into the fourth quarter. Fortunately, someone got to Joe Flacco with some smelling salts and mentioned that he might want to stop throwing it at the guy being covered by Pro Bowl cornerback Joe Hayden. Bing Bang Boom Flacco throws two touchdown passes, the Ravens are heading to Pittsburgh for round one of the playoffs and my interest has been rekindled in a big way. It's like I was standing on deck to tee off at Bethpage Yellow when the starter tapped me on the shoulder and told me a spot just opened up on the Black. (Got to keep it somewhat golfy). I have to admit, I'm a bit giddy and on that cheerful note and just in time for your Saturday morning constitutional, here are the first round picks . . .

Carolina by 6.5 over Arizona: The Pick - Panthers

They're calling for rain on Saturday and you
know what that means . . . everything is going
to be really wet. (Hey, thanks creepy Rob Lowe).

In the space of a few weeks we went from the possibility of a home team being a double digit playoff underdog to a 7-8-1 team being a 6.5 favorite over an 11-5 team. And on top of that, the 7-8-1 team is probably the closest thing to a straight-up lock in the first round as the other three favorites all find themselves in very precarious positions with major question marks (we'll get to those). The Panthers have won four games in a row while rushing for about 800 yards in the process (seriously). Meanwhile, the Cardinals are starting a quarterback who looks like Jason Bateman and completes less than half his passes. This game feels like a bit like the crazy hairy Rob Lowe Directv ad.**

Pittsburgh by 3 over Baltimore: The Pick - Ravens

These two teams split the regular season match-ups with the Ravens hammering the Steelers by 20 points at home and then the Steelers returning the favor by the same margin in Pittsburgh in the second of Ben Roethlisberger's back to back six touchdown games. What those two games tell us about the upcoming match-up is absolutely nothing because this one is invariably going to be decided by seven points or less and it will be in doubt heading into the fourth quarter. That would have been less likely a week ago but now Le'Veon Bell is out and you can't remove arguably the best running back in the game from the equation and not have it tip the scales. Add that to the fact that the mere sight of Roethlisberger turns the Ravens' front seven into something they'd unleash in the Hunger Games and you have the recipe for a sixty minute brawl. Did I mention I'm a bit giddy?

Indianapolis by 3.5 over Cincinnati: The Pick - Bengals

"Please stop bothering me. 
I told you. I'm tired."

The last quality win the Colts had was against the Bengals in Week 7 but since then they've played three playoff teams (Pittsburgh, New England and Dallas) and lost those games by a combined score of 135-61. Apparently averaging 3.9 yards per carry and leading the league in fumbles makes you blowout prone. Not to mention, when you run those numbers plus the sketchy Colts defense through the Tandy 2000, it just sits there silently because the damn thing hasn't worked in over 20 years but if it did, it would tell you that's a lousy playoff formula.

Dallas by 6.5 over Detroit: The Pick - Cowboys

Matthew Stafford's career road record against winning teams is 0-16 which is a really bad stat if he happens to be the quarterback of your wildcard playoff team. What that dismal record is trying to tell us is that Stafford just isn't that great, especially when you consider that he's been throwing to arguably the third best receiver of all-time for the past six years and he can't even manage to complete 60% of his passes. (Jerry Rice and Randy Moss are #1 and #2. After that the debate broadens).*** In most cases involving the Cowboys and a playoff game, the combination of Jason Garrett and Tony Romo would cancel-out such a glaring weakness in their opponent, however, the Lions will see the Cowboys' pair of un-clutch leaders and raise them all-in with Jim Caldwell and that will be more than enough to take the pot . . . or lose it . . . the game I mean. Oh screw this analogy. Just take the Cowboys. 

Last Week's Record: 9-7 . . . Regular Season Record: 122-130-3.

Footnotes

* As a Patriots' fan, Simmons knows all about karma as the Pats haven't won a Super Bowl since Bill Belichik was caught cheating. Simmons is also dreading the prospect of Terrell Suggs, Courtney Upshaw and C.J. Mosley snapping Tom Brady in half next weekend . . . as he should be.

** I'm guessing a decision was made by Directv to either write-off the hairy guy demographic that I fall squarely into or they just assumed that if we care that little about personal grooming then we probably care equally as little about an ad that tacitly offends us. And they'd be right.   

*** I'm always happy when I'm reminded of a Bulwer-Lytton Fiction Contest finalist for the worst opening sentence to a novel. In this case, "the debate broadens" calls to mind the opening line . . . "Just beyond the Narrows, the river widens." I know you have no idea what I'm talking about but I landed on my head skiing today so bear with me and just be thankful this is in English. And speaking of thankful, my appreciation goes out to the guy who thought it would be a good idea for recreational skiers to start wearing helmets. Now how about a sign to keep people over 40 out of the terrain parks? Sheesh. 

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com. 

The FGR Week 17 NFL Picks

The Fantasy Golf Report is taking the week off but, for the sake of finishing what we started, below are the Week 17 NFL picks. Now if you'll excuse me, I need to get back to watching reruns of The Wire and sleeping until 9:30 every morning. See you in a few days with a 2015 PGA Tour preview.

The Ravens' playoff hopes are in the hands
of Chase Daniel. I'm going back to bed.

Green Bay by 7.5 over Detroit: The Pick - Packers
Houston by 10 over Jacksonville: The Pick - Texans
Pittsburgh by 3.5 over Cincinnati: The Pick - Bengals
Indianapolis by 7 at Tennessee: The Pick - Colts
Baltimore by 8.5 over Cleveland: The Pick - Ravens
New England by 5 over Buffalo: The Pick - Bills
Miami by 5.5 over N.Y. Jets: The Pick - Jets
Atlanta by 4 over Carolina: The Pick - Falcons
Minnesota by 7 over Chicago: The Pick - Bears
Kansas City by 2.5 over San Diego: The Pick - Chiefs
N.Y. Giants by 2.5 over Philadelphia: The Pick - Giants
Dallas by 6.5 at Washington: The Pick - Redskins
New Orleans by 4 at Tampa Bay: The Pick - Saints
Seattle by 12.5 over St. Louis: The Pick - Seahawks
San Francisco by 6 over Arizona: The Pick - Cardinals
Denver by 14 over Oakland: The Pick - Raiders

Last Week's Record: 6-9-1 . . . Season Record: 113-123-3

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com. 

The Week 16 NFL Picks

I hate losing and that makes this process of picking NFL games especially demoralizing because I have now lost 114 times in 15 weeks (it actually may be 115 times but somewhere along the way I screwed-up the mathematical mountain climb that is adding a pair of two digit numbers together and the result is that I missed a game in my total count. The sad part is that it happens every year). That means that, about eight times per week, I watch the scores roll-in and think, "I'm an idiot" which may or may not be true but I don't need it proven to me in the harsh fashion of a 30-0 Bengals win over a Browns team that looked like it was being quarterbacked by the kid from Lincoln High as soon as he realized that his body would be paying for the damage to Charles Jefferson's car.

Well, if we're going to go down in flames, might as well do it with our boots on and crank-out some good old fashioned FGR gibberish for each game. Besides, we only have two more full weeks to botch football picks before we turn our attention to botching golf picks.    

Jacksonville by 3 over Tennessee: The Pick - Jaguars

The Jags cheerleaders should get
a lot of airtime to distract us from
the travesty on the field.

There are three and only three reasons you should find yourself watching this game: (1) You have somehow painted yourself into the fantasy football corner of still playing for something while having to rely on the services of a 231 pound white running back; (2) You are in college playing-out the string of the fall semester and you need something on in the background as you get pre-drunk before leaving the house, dorm, etc.; or (3) You poor bastard . . . you are actually a Jags or Titans fan clinging to the hope that your team will do the right thing by laying down these last two weeks thereby landing the first or second overall pick in the draft. Then again, the carnage that is the recent history of first round picks* by these two teams is pretty frightening so be careful what you wish for.

San Francisco by 2.5 over San Diego: The Pick - Chargers

Twenty-three months ago, Jim Harbaugh and Colin Kaepernick were one play away from winning the Super Bowl. Now they appear to be one play away from jumping in a car and going on a multi-state killing spree like Woody Harrelson and Juliette Lewis. Meanwhile, if the Chargers lose this week, it will be there fourth streak of either winning or losing at least three times in row. Based on that I should probably go the other way but I firmly believe that Harbaugh is trying to stick it to owner Jed York knowing that he can dump the rest of the season and still have his pick among any of the four or five worst coaching jobs in football next year. You know it's bad when the rest of the competition for your services has to convince you why they're a better option than the Jets.    

Philadelphia by 9 at Washington: The Pick - Eagles

This game features two quarterbacks who are likely auditioning for starting jobs elsewhere next year. And by "elsewhere," I mean Canada.  

Miami by 6.5 over Minnesota: The Pick - Vikings

Since 2011, the Dolphins have gone 6-10, 7-9 and 8-8. With two more wins this year, they will finish 9-7, their four year climb to above averageness will be complete and Joe Philbin's work here will be done.

Green Bay by 10.5 at Tampa Bay: The Pick - Packers

In the most recent MMQB, Peter King pointed-out that this week Aaron Rodgers "goes to a place that has not been good to him. At all." I immediately pictured a strip club brawl but then King elaborated that "Rodgers has played there twice, in 2008 and 2009. Lost twice. Completed 50 percent of his throws in the two games with four touchdowns and six picks, and a 54.6 rating at the Pirate Ship." I guess he added the part about the pirate ship because Rodgers is afraid of pirates? What King fails to mention as part of his analysis is that (a) 2008 and 2009 were Rodgers' first two seasons as a starter and (b) those games were five and six years ago so the Bucs probably have like a whole bunch of different players on their team now. In a related story, I'm starting to worry about Peter King because reading the MMQB has become a lot like talking to my mother in-law about baseball. Disorienting.  

Detroit by 7 at Chicago: The Pick - Lions

It just never gets old.
(At least not for me).

Just after halftime of the Monday night game against the Saints, the camera settled on Jay Cutler who was sitting on the bench wearing a ski hat and a facial expression that fell somewhere between "I honestly don't give a shit about anything right now" and "I have a mild yet annoying itch near my butthole." The score at the time was 14-0 Saints and it would soon grow to be 24-0 before the Bears finally scored in the fourth quarter. When you factor in his 2014 contract that includes $54M guaranteed and cap hits of $16.5M in 2015 and $17M in 2016, isn't Cutler currently the worst quarterback in the league? (Put your hand down Colin Kaepernick, you still need another season's worth of non-quality starts to be eligible).

New Orleans by 6 over Atlanta: The Pick - Saints

The winner of this game will become the heavy favorite to take the division and earn the potential privilege of hosting Seattle as a two touchdown underdog in the first round of the playoffs. This just isn't Roger Goodell's year.

New England by 10 at N.Y. Jets: The Pick - Jets

We've got two more games left in the Rex Ryan era and I would not be at all surprised to see the Jets pull-off an upset over the Pats because the one thing that Rex never lost was the ability to motivate his players which is just further proof that he is the bizarro Marc Trestman.

Pittsburgh by 3 over Kansas City: The Pick - Chiefs

The AFC North has spent most of the season pounding on the tomato cans from the AFC South and the NFC South and the result is three teams at the top with nine wins each. That changes this week as the Steelers host the Chiefs who need this game to stay in the playoff chase and the Bengals host the Broncos who still have a shot at the top seed but, more importantly, don't want to get caught by the Colts for the second seed. Considering the significance of this game and the coaches and quarterbacks on each side, I'm probably hoping against hope with this pick.

Carolina by 4 over Cleveland: The Pick - Panthers

If I were a Browns fan (and I thank my lucky stars that I am not), I would be especially troubled by Johnny Manziel's inauspicious debut as a starter for a couple of reasons: (1) He appears to have the arm strength of a high school quarterback which would explain why he fell to 22nd in the first round of the draft but (and read this part sarcastically) I'm sure the Browns' scouts thoroughly vetted that; and (2) the Browns history of drafting quarterbacks ain't the best in the business. Let's do a quick review:

1999: They draft Tim Couch first overall. It then takes five years to figure-out he sucks.

2004: Apparently still happy with their QB situation, the Browns pass on Ben Roethlisberger with the 6th overall pick and take Kellen Winslow, Jr. instead.

2005: They decide that quarterback is more of a luxury than a need so they pass on Aaron Rodgers in the first round and take Charlie Frye in the third.

2007: The Browns get the steal of the draft by catching Brady Quinn who fell to the 22nd pick in the first round. Clearly they knew something the rest of the league didn't. Then they learn that bad quarterbacks are bad no matter where you get them in the draft. (Hey, that's the same pick they used to get Manziel . . . shhhhhhhhh).

2008: Coming-off a 2007 season when they went 10-6 led most of the way by Derek Anderson, things were looking-up and, with so much depth at quarterback, there was no need to look at Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco in the first round.

"You mean I forgot to mention that I
turned 28 last month? Wow. Sorry."

2010: Patience pays-off again for the Browns who get another "steal" with Colt McCoy in the third round. McCoy is now a backup for the Redskins, his third team in five years.

2012: Back in the market, the Browns make a lowball offer to the Rams for the #2 pick which is rejected and for once their ineptitude pays-off as that pick turns into the train wreck that is RG, III. Unfortunately for the Browns, they dodged the falling safe by jumping in front of a bus in the form of Brandon Weeden with the 22nd pick. Weeden is now a backup for the Cowboys which is clearly foreshadowing considering how much Jerry Jones wanted to draft Johnny Manziel in the first place.

Baltimore by 5.5 at Houston: The Pick - Ravens

The flip side of the Steelers and the Bengals having relatively tough match-ups this week is the Ravens going to Houston to face either Thad Lewis who was signed by the Texans off the street on November 24th or Case Keenum who was signed off the Rams' practice squad last week. (Note that being a quarterback on the Rams' practice squad is like being an alternate on the Bolivian luge team). Then again, Texans coach Bill O'Brien is refusing to name his starter until kick-off meaning that there is an outside shot it could end-up being J.J. Watt which, as a Ravens fan, I find terrifying.  

St. Louis by 5 over N.Y. Giants: The Pick - Rams

The Rams proved last week that beating two members of the Downtrodden Six (Jags, Jets, Raiders, Redskins, Titans and Bucs) by a combined score of 76-0 has no momentum value whatsoever when your next game is against one of the other twenty-two or so teams in the league who have a clue. Entering that game against Arizona, they probably figured they only needed 13 points to win and they came up with 6. This week they return to their gene pool against the Giants who are coincidentally coming-off their own three game stretch against the D-Six which included a home loss to the Jaguars. That puts the Giants in the NFL netherworld of teams that are right on the line between watchable and unwatchable along with the Bears, Browns and the entire NFC South. This feels like a game where Eli throws a lot of picks and makes a lot of faces.

Buffalo by 6 at Oakland: The Pick - Bills

The Bills' defense ended my fantasy football season by pulling an absolute stymie job on Aaron Rodgers last week. They are therefore dead to me and will garner no further commentary.

Dallas by 3 over Indianapolis: The Pick - Colts

I have been clinging to my core belief that a team coached by Jason Garrett and quarterbacked by Tony Romo will revert to its true mediocre self over the course of a sixteen game season. However, if they can beat a quality opponent like the Colts in a game with their division winning hopes on the line, that belief will begin to crack which could force me to rethink all kinds of things like whether an Andy Reid coached team could hold a fourth quarter lead in a big game or Matthew Stafford could beat a good team on the road.

Seattle by 8 at Arizona: The Pick - Seahawks

Bruce Arians: "For the love of
God someone tell him to wipe
that f---ing smile off his face!"

The Cardinals are 11-3 and an 8 point underdog at home. I'm pretty sure that's never happened before but then again, I'm also pretty sure that a quarterback with seven career interceptions and no career touchdown passes has ever started for an 11-3 team against the defending Super Bowl champion before. You have to figure that the final spread on this game is going to be the number of points the Seahawks can score minus three so I'm betting the Seahawks can score more than eleven.

Denver by 3.5 at Cincinnati: The Pick - Broncos

Andy Dalton on national television with his team's playoff hopes on the line? Come on.

Endnotes

* God love Gil Brandt because he will always be the Godfather of NFL scouting but the man is 81 years old and recently wrote of the Jags' needs in the upcoming draft, "they took care of quarterback . . . in the last draft." Apparently his definition of "took care of" is "continued to set the position back 20 years" because Blake Bortles is currently ranked 30th in QBR and, when he played in Baltimore last Sunday, he triggered a series of Kyle Boller flashbacks in Ravens fans that had us involuntarily screaming, "THE LINEBACKER IS NOT YOUR FRIEND . . . RUN THE OTHER WAY . . . RUN!!!"

Last Week's Record: 8-8 . . . Season Record: 107-114-2

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com. 

The Week 15 NFL Picks

The NFL used to be the league of parity where any team in a given year could rise from the ashes and make a playoff run no matter how incompetent it seemed the year before. This was based in part on a salary cap system that was supposed to level the playing field by preventing good teams from keeping all of their talented players by paying them market or above-market value year after year. That worked for a while but, inevitably, the competent teams figured-out how to manage the cap by not overpaying players who were past their primes and by finding value where others could not. In 2014, it would now appear that the well-run teams have fully adjusted by applying one of the following three blueprints: (1) Keep riding the elite quarterback you scored in the draft (Patriots, Packers, Seahawks and Colts); (2) Go find a randomly available experienced quarterback who can make you at least a playoff contender every year (Broncos and Chiefs); or (3) Hire a great coach and build a winning organization that doesn't require a superstar passer (Ravens, Cardinals and Eagles).

Maybe if we quit showering
him with so much attention,
he'll stop pulling crap like this.

But who wants to talk about those successful teams when it's infinitely more entertaining to recognize the failing organizations and to examine how and why they have failed. Not to mention, the Patriots, Broncos and Packers already have Peter King writing them love sonnets every week so who needs more of that? (We all acknowledge that Brady, Manning and Rodgers are great but the slurping is getting a little over the top). Over the past four seasons including this one, six teams have distinguished themselves for their ineptitude - the Jets, Titans, Jaguars, Raiders, Redskins and Bucs (as every fan of one of those teams just winced at the suggestion that they are in the same class as the other five). Let's take a look at what this sextet of inadequacy has accomplished or failed to accomplish over the last three seasons.

• There are twelve teams in the AFC with at least 7 wins and there are four teams with only 2 wins. (There are currently no AFC teams with 3, 4, 5, or 6 wins which has to be some kind of statistical anomaly . . . or something). The four teams with 2 wins each (the aforementioned Jets, Titans, Jaguars and Raiders) had a combined winning percentage in 2013 of .359 and a combined winning percentage in 2012 of .281. You have to go all the way back to 2011 to find a winning record for any of those four teams when the Titans went 9-7.

• The two teams at the bottom of the NFC are the Redskins and the Bucs with 5 wins between them. Their combined winning percentage in 2013 was .219. The Redskins actually made the playoffs in RG, III's 2012 rookie season but they of course tainted that by playing their franchise quarterback until his injured leg literally looked like it was about to fall off thereby sacrificing their 2013 season and quickly returning them to the dark ages of 2011 when they went 5-11. The Bucs aggregate winning percentage since the start of the 2011 season is .266. You get the picture. 

Biggest red flag you can see on
a quarterback's scouting report?
"The Jags are really high on him."

• The quarterbacks who started the most games for each of those six teams in 2012 were Mark Sanchez, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Carson Palmer, RG, III and Josh Freeman. Of those six quarterbacks, only Locker and RG, III are still with their 2012 teams and both have been benched this season. The quarterbacks who have started the most games for each of those six teams this season and their passer rating ranks are Geno Smith (34th), Zach Mettenberger (25th), Blake Bortles (33rd), Derek Carr (30th), Kirk Cousins (21st) and Josh McCown (32nd).      

• The Jets made the AFC Championship Game in 2010 and 2011. To find another playoff win for any of these six teams you have to go back to January of 2008 when the Jags beat the Steelers. (Eat it Pittsburgh . . . eat it).           

So there you have what appear to be the past and immediate future dregs of the NFL. To paraphrase Gordon Gekko, it's six teams walking around blind without a cane when it comes to finding a quarterback and there is no indication that they're any closer than they were three years ago with the possible exception of the Raiders and Derek Carr. (If you're a fan of one of the other five teams, the fact that the Raiders may be better positioned to turn things around than your favorite team has to be a bit disconcerting). To make matters worse, they haven't displayed that they can even rise to a level mediocrity in the absence of a quality starter like the Texans, Rams, Bills and Browns have (another wincing moment for the beleaguered fans as the realization that their team has been lapped by the Bills and the Browns sinks-in).

So what's the cure for these six ailing franchises? Well, it is both simple and virtually unattainable. They all need a change of ownership because they stink from the top down and that business model doesn't work in the NFL (nor in many other places). From Al Davis' son in Oakland to P.T. Barnum in Washington, the guiding hand for each of these six teams can be described as suspect at best. And the one thing they all seem to have in common is an owner with the desire put those guiding hands all over the running of the football operations from hiring and firing the coaches to influencing the decisions about who to draft and start at quarterback. I'm pretty sure the CEO of Jet Blue isn't in the ear of his pilots telling them "a little to the left." At least I hope not.

But we don't even need that outrageous hypothetical when we can get such a better real life example from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who just recently decided to stop using unpaid homeless people (some of whom are recovering alcoholics and drug addicts) to sell beer at their home games after being called-out by the Tampa Bay Times (because they apparently needed to read about it in a newspaper before they realized it was a bad idea). Now consider that at the top of the organization is a person who both hired the people responsible for that decision and also hires the people making the football decisions. Then consider that that same person who keeps your team picking at the top of the draft is probably the final say on which players get picked thereby creating a hamster wheel of failure. Yeah, I'd be wincing too.                          

Well that was fun. Now let's get on to some picks:  

       

Hey, Merry Christmas.

St. Louis by 4.5 over Arizona: The Pick - Cardinals

Kansas City by 10 over Oakland: The Pick - Chiefs
Baltimore by 13.5 over Jags: The Pick - Ravens
Pittsburgh by 2.5 at Atlanta: The Pick - Falcons
Indianapolis by 6.5 over Houston: The Pick - Colts
Cincinnati by 1.5 at Cleveland: The Pick - Browns
New England by 7.5 over Miami: The Pick - Patriots
Carolina by 3 over Tampa Bay: The Pick - Panthers
N.Y. by 6.5 over Washington: The Pick - Redskins
Green Bay by 5 at Buffalo: The Pick - Packers
Detroit by 8 over Minnesota: The Pick - Vikings
N.Y. Jets by 1.5 at Tennessee: The Pick - Jets
Denver by 4 at San Diego: The Pick - Broncos
Seattle by 9.5 over San Fran: The Pick - Seahawks
Philadelphia by 3.5 over Dallas: The Pick - Eagles
New Orleans by 3 at Chicago: The Pick - Bears

Last Week's Record: 8-7-1
Season Record: 99-106-2.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.