The FGR Week 11 Thursday Night Pick

From a competitive standpoint, has there been a less relevant division in sports over the last ten years than the NFL's AFC East? Since 2002, the only team to win it not named the New England Patriots was the 2008 Miami Dolphins. That team was led by renowned knuckleball pitcher Chad Pennington and was ultimately manhandled and found wanting by the Ravens in the first round of the playoffs.* That was also the asterisk year that Tom Brady threw only eleven passes before Bernard Pollard ended his season and spawned the "Tom Brady Rule" which makes it illegal to hit Tom Brady in the knee (of course you can hit just about anyone else in the knee just as long as their name doesn't happen to be "Tom Brady").

I know I know, the Jets supposedly made it to the 2009 and 2010 AFC Conference Championship games but, in hindsight, are we sure that really happened? As I sit here in 2014, are you honestly trying to tell me that a team assembled by Mike Tannenbaum, coached by Rex Ryan and quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez won playoff road games against the Bengals, Chargers, Colts and Patriots and came within five points of beating the Steelers to go to the Super Bowl? I'll take your word for it on the Bengals and the Chargers because there is no one you would want see on the other sideline in a playoff game more than Norv Turner or anyone wearing a Bengals' hat but Manning's Colts and Brady's Patriots? I'm going to need more evidence because it strains credulity to say the least.

Miami by 4.5 over Buffalo: The Pick - Dolphins

. . . and warm weather cheerleaders.

And that brings us to tonight's ultimately meaningless match-up between two non-Patriot AFC East teams. Fittingly, the Dolphins are coming-off a loss in which they blew a lead to the Lions and the Bills are coming-off a loss where they blew a lead to the Chiefs. Both teams are 5-4 which means a win tonight should launch the winner on its way to 9-7 and the loser to 7-9. One team is led by a journeyman quarterback who looks like Dave Grohl while the other is led by a promising young stud with a model caliber wife. As much as I like Nirvana and the Foo Fighters, I'm going with the model caliber wife.

Footnote

* That was the season when Ed Reed decided he was going to score a touchdown every time he touched the ball so, when Pennington launched this duck in the playoff game, we pretty much knew he was going to get flattened ten seconds later as Reed stepped over him on the way into the endzone.

 Last Week's Record: 7-6 . . . Season Record: 68-77-1

Email the FGR at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

The FGR Week 10 NFL Picks

(Editor's note: These picks are being posted at approximately 12:45 p.m. EST on Sunday to ensure that they are used for minimal gambling purposes and don't cost someone their kid's college fund).

For lunch on Friday I ate an organic turkey sandwich with soy cheese on Quinoa bread. It is part of the FGW's recent approach to better living through whatever the opposite of chemistry is and the only place I see this heading is a diet consisting of nothing but freshly fallen leaves, rain water and kelp. One of the byproducts of this kind of diet is supposed to be a healthier brain. A healthier brain should lead to better decision making. Better decision making should lead to better football picks. In short, I'm pulling-out all of the stops.

Dallas by 6.5 over Jacksonville (in London): The Pick - Cowboys

You got to hand it to white people, when
we get pushed out of the old sports, we
just hunker down and invent a new one.

I hate giving this many points in a London game because they always seem to devolve into slop-fests with weird scores like 22-15 (this is based on no actual research which will be a common theme running through today's picks). In the defense of the players, it's got to be a little weird playing in front of a bunch of fans clad in Quidditch robes who cheer the loudest everytime the ball hits someone's foot.

Detroit by 2.5 over Miami: The Pick - Dolphins

One of these teams is starting to really look legitimate and it's not the Lions who are currently the FGR's 2014 team with what appears to be a deceptively good record. I don't know. Maybe it's the wins over the Jets, Vikings and Falcons. The upcoming stretch against the Dolphins, Cardinals and Patriots in which the over/under on interceptions thrown by Mattew Stafford shoud be 6.5 will restore some sense of order. 

Kansas City by 2 at Buffalo: The Pick - Chiefs

This is a must win for the Chiefs because, other than two remaining games with the Raiders, they might have the most brutal remaining schedule of any team in the league (Seahawks, Broncos, at Cardinals, at Steelers, Chargers). Or at least the most brutal of all the teams I have checked which would include the Chiefs and um . . . there you have it. 

New Orleans by 5 over San Francisco: The Pick - Saints

When things start trending south with a coach and his players as they are in San Francisco, they rarely stop trending in that direction. Especially when the coach in question is a simmering fire in the janitor's closet of a chemical plant like Jim Harbaugh. The introductory press conference at his next job is going to be appointment viewing. And don't tell me he's going to Michigan. He's one of the five best coaches in the NFL. Harbaugh going to Michigan would be like me going back to litigating amusement park slip and fall cases. ("So let me get this straight, despite the twelve posted warning signs and the fact that water is generally recognized as the most common cause of slippery surfaces, you were surprised to find the steps entering the wave pool to be slippery? Just one follow-up question . . . are you fucking kidding me?").

Baltimore by 9.5 over Tennessee: a The Pick - Ravens

"This sucks hon."

Unfortunately for the Ravens, despite their Super Bowl win just twenty-one months ago, they are under a lot of pressure from the Baltimore fans thanks to the Orioles somewhat sudden demise in the ALCS. At this point, we're basically a bunch of spoiled kids who's X-Box just broke. A Ravens' loss at home to the Titans would pretty much be the equivalent of our parents telling us we're not getting a new one until Christmas. WAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!!!

Pittsburgh by 5 at N.Y. Jets: The Pick - Steelers

In the two weeks since I buried Ben Roethlisberger's Super Bowl potential, he's thrown for over 800 yards and 12 touchdowns. As the athlete who has delivered more daggers to the gut of my sports happiness, all I can say is "well played sir." 

Atlanta by 2.5 at Tampa Bay: The Pick - Bucs

A game only Matt Ryan and Mike Glennon's mothers could love and even that is debatable as everyone has their own limit on how much bad football they can watch:

Matt Ryan: "What'd you think of the game mom?"

Mrs. Ryan: "Well Matty, you know sometimes we don't get your games on TV up here wherever we live."

Matt Ryan: "But I bought you that dish and the NFL Sunday Ticket . . ."

Mrs. Ryan: "What's that Matt? I'm sorry, now the phone's not working either. Curse this technology."

Denver by 11.5 at Oakland: The Pick- Broncos

We know two things for sure about Peyton Manning: (1) His forehead is so big that you could paint a replica of the Mona Lisa on it and (2) he can't stand not being recognized as the best quarterback in the league. Because of No. 2, you know that getting shown-up by Tom Brady last week combined with Roethlisberger's shenanigans are driving him nuts. In a rare piece of fantasy advice from the FGR, I'd advise starting every Bronco you have including the left tackle.

Arizona by 7 over St. Louis: The Pick - Cardinals

"Aw prairie shit . . . they can
play in the Go Daddy Bowl."

I've got nothing on this game so instead let's acknowledge the Arizona St. Sun Devils for knocking Notre Dame out of the college football playoff picture last night. To paraphrase Olson Johnson, "alright, we'll give playoff spots to the Bulldogs and the Ducks . . . but we don't want the Irish."** 

Seattle by 9 over N.Y. Giants: The Pick - Giants

OK, we peaked with the Blazing Saddles reference so let's run out the rest of these picks. Hard to believe the Seahawks are still getting this much respect for a Super Bowl that they basically won with a different team. Meanwhile, this is right about the time the Giants start getting on everyone's nerves by looking like a contender one week and drek the next. I'm going with contender this week.

Green Bay by 7.5 over Chicago: The Pick - Packers

If the Jay Cutler mega contract taught us anything, it's that you don't hand a ton of money to a guy who's defining characteristic is "petulance" unless he invented Facebook. 

Philadelphia by 6.5 over Carolina: The Pick - Panthers

You might think that this pick was inspired by a lack of confidence in Mark Sanchez . . . and you'd be right.

Footnote

* I am aware that I have tap danced around race and ethnicity a bit in this one but you know what makes it even better? I'm writing this from the parking lot of a Catholic church while my daughter's at Sunday School. Hey, at least I'm on the property.

Last Week's Record: 6-7 . . . Season Record: 61-71-1.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com. 

The FGR Thursday Night NFL Pick

You have to hand it to the NFL (and by "it," I'm not talking about your wallet this time). While they are completely inept at dealing with the public relations aspect of their employees' personal conduct transgressions, they do have a firm grasp on generating revenue. Take the Thursday night games for example. They're a cash cow but no team wants to play them. So to make sure the players and coaches on each team get evenly screwed with same number games on short weeks, the league has each team play one "Thursday night" game per season. (I put "Thursday night" in quotes because two of the games listed on the NFL's website as "Thursday night" games will actually be played on Saturday, December 20th at 4:30 p.m. which is pretty much the same thing as Thursday night except that it's not on a Thursday and it's not at night).*

"(Why is this person speaking? Wait, is
that my nephew . . . well, probably a
good time to nip this in the bud)."

The only problem with this plan was that, right after Roger Goodell pitched it and was wringing his hands while cackling, one of his very brave underlings raised his hand and asked, "what do we do about teams that no one wants to see like the Browns, Bengals, Titans and Jaguars?" Goodell then lowered his beady eyes at the young upstart and coldly seethed, "you fool . . . we'll have them play each other to limit the ratings hit to two nights." He then pushed a button and the chair of the young executive fresh out of Harvard business school tipped-over backwards dumping him into a fiery pit. And that is the story of how we ended-up with the Browns-Bengals tonight and the Titans-Jags on December 18th. Heartwarming . . . literally.

Cincinnati by 6.5 over Cleveland: The Pick - Browns

We can mock these two teams all we want (and we should) but the fact is that this game is for first place in the AFC North which is the best division in football from top to bottom. All four teams have a winning record and each is sitting on a positive point differential (points scored v. points allowed) which may be the simplest way to measure which teams are really good in the NFL.** You can look at the Browns through two very distinct lenses: (1) they would be 7-1 if not for losses at the buzzer to the Ravens and Steelers; or (2) they got blown-out by the Jaguars 24-6. I'm going to call that an aberration game and declare the Browns the 2014 team you don't want to give more than three points to because they will find a way to ugly it up and keep it close. In fact, you can have that Cleveland . . . We Ugly it Up and Keep it Close. Hey, it's better than Factory of Sadness.***

Footnotes

* This inevitably calls to mind item No. 8 on the David Letterman list of Top Ten Things Overheard in Line for "Kickboxer II": "It's a lot like Star Wars . . . only it doesn't take place in outer space and there's a lot more kicking."  

** The top five are: New England (+83), Indianapolis (+79), Baltimore (+66), Kansas City (+62) and Denver/Miami (+60). At the bottom you have Jacksonville (-110) as the Jaguars appear hell bent on defending the 2013 title they ran away with by getting outscored 449-247 (-202) . . . and that somehow included four wins which seems mathematically impossible.

*** Note that I tried to come-up with some suitable artwork but the Browns do not have cheerleaders and searches including the keywords "Cleveland" and/or "Brown" yielded nothing up to FGR standards. Sorry but I don't make the rules.

Last Week's Record: 6-7 . . . Season Record: 61-71-1

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com. 

The FGR Week 9 NFL Picks

We're going to go ahead and clear-out the Week 9 picks to make room for some funny ass shit in the Friday morning edition. Yeah that's right, I'm calling my shot. Go hard or go home . . . or you can hang-out here on the couch until your ride gets here. I don't want to be rude.

Just keeping it clean and simple this week.

Miami by 2 over San Diego: The Pick - Dolphins

Cinci by 11 over Jacksonville: The Pick - Jags

Cleveland by 6.5 over Tampa: The Pick - Browns

Minnesota by 2 over Washington: The Pick - Skins

Philadelphia by 2 at Houston: The Pick - Eagles

Kansas City by 9.5 over N.Y. Jets: The Pick - Jets

Dallas by 3.5 over Arizona: The Pick - Cardinals

San Francisco by 10 over St. Louis: The Pick - 49ers

Denver by 3 at New England: The Pick - Broncos

Seattle by 15 over Oakland: The Pick - Raiders

Pittsburgh by 1 over Baltimore: The Pick - Ravens

Indianapolis by 3 at N.Y. Giants: The Pick - Colts

Last Week: 5-10 . . . Season Record: 55-64-1

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.