The FGR Week 6 NFL Picks

Well what I've lacked in golf forecasting ability, I appear to be making-up with football picks as Thursday night's win pushed me to 45-31-1 against the spread this year. This was setting-up to be a pretty entertaining entry as the original weekend itinerary had me playing a 45 hole tournament with most of my family out of town which would have created the potential for a little late night creativity along with a few inappropriate tweets and Facebook posts. Unfortunately, Mother Nature had other ideas and now the golf is off and I'll be heading to Delaware to coach little league soccer in the rain for two days. It's your basic middle aged reversal of fortune seasoned with a dash of "hey let's drive three hours so our ten year old kids can play sports against ten year old kids from other places who look just like the ten year old kids from home."

As a result, some of this week's games will get more attention than others. The good news, however, is that the golf tournament was pushed to next weekend so the prospect of inappropriate tweets and posts still looms.

At Kansas City by 9 over Oakland: The Pick - Raiders

There is little doubt in my mind that the Chiefs will win this game and I usually go with sure winners regardless of the spread but 9 points against a divisional opponent with a wild card quarterback is just a few too many.

Philadelphia by 1 at Tampa Bay: The Pick - Bucs

But not before Glennon
stops at Baskin-Robbins.

The NFC East has two wins outside of the division. One was the Cowboys over the Rams who are lousy and the other was the Redskins over the Raiders which on that day may have been the worst team in the league this year considering Matt Flynn was playing quarterback. I have to believe that getting the stink of Josh Freeman's attitude out of the locker room will give the Bucs a boost. Not to mention, Cinemax is running Varsity Blues this month so there's always the chance that quarterback Mike Glennon could stage a mutiny and force-out Greg Schiano.
 
Green Bay by 3 at Baltimore: The Pick - Packers

I must admit that I'm passing on what will probably be the only chance of my lifetime to watch Aaron Rodgers play live. Football is really the one sport where there is little incentive to see a potential hall of famer come to town because, with only a sixteen game season, no one wants to see him do hall of fame caliber things against your team.*

Detroit by 2.5 at Cleveland: The Pick - Lions

The restoration of Brandon Weeden to the starting spot should get the Browns tanking run back on track though it appears that the Steelers are going to make every effort to out-tank them. A truly bitter rivalry.

At Minnesota by 2.5 over Carolina: The Pick - Panthers

The Vikings now feature a potential quarterback rotation of Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel and Josh Freeman. That's got to make Viking fans feel like the last guy to show-up at the cookout . . . "um we've got a little bit of potato salad left, I think there are a few radishes still on the veggie tray and . . . hey, did anyone eat that hot dog that the cat was licking?"

At Houston by 7 over St. Louis: The Pick - Texans

"Joey, I am the worst GM in NFL
history. It's not your fault.  It's not
your fault. It's not your fault." 

After his fourth consecutive game with a pick six, they're burning Matt Schaub's jersey in Houston but if you asked a Texans' fan if they'd trade him straight-up for Sam Bradford right now, they'd probably say, "you know what . . . we think Matt's going to come around." So if you're keeping track, here is the official progression: Tony Romo is the poor man's Brett Favre, Matt Schaub is the poor man's Tony Romo, Andy Dalton is the poor man's Matt Schaub, Sam Bradford is the poor man's Andy Dalton, Brandon Weeden is the poor man's Sam Bradford and then you go through a few historically bad quarterbacks like Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith and Joey Harrington and eventually you end with Blaine Gabbert.**

At N.Y. Jets by 1 over Pittsburgh: The Pick - Steelers

You know I may have underestimated the Jets this season considering they're 4-1 against the spread. In my defense, my dislike for them is well-grounded in the fact that I spent two years living with a reeeaaalllly annoying Jet fan (is there any other kind?) in college. I mean if you spent two years having to listen to your roommate butcher Hakuna Matata in the shower, you probably wouldn't be a really big fan of The Lion King right?

I will say, however, that I think that Rex Ryan is being unfairly judged as a head coach. Here is the list of coaches who have been to at least two conference championship games over the last ten years along with their starting quarterbacks - you tell me which one stands-out for overcoming the greatest liability at the most important position: John Harbaugh (Flacco), Bill Belichik (Brady), Jim Harbaugh (A. Smith and Kaepernick), Tom Coughlin (E. Manning), Rex Ryan (Sanchez), Mike Tomlin (Roethlisberger), Mike McCarthy (Rodgers), Sean Payton (Brees), Andy Reid (McNabb) and Tony Dungy (P. Manning). Get the point? So let's stop talking about Rex like he's Rich Kotite or Bruce Coslett. He's an obnoxious blowhard, but at least he can coach. With all of that being said, I'm taking the Steelers.

Cincinnati by 8 at Buffalo: The Pick - Bengals

I'm not sure which I find more unbelievable: (a) That the Bills did not have a quarterback that they deemed back-up worthy on their active roster or (b) that the player they promoted from the practice squad is a black guy named "Thad." Of course it turns-out he went to Duke which is also the Alma mater of "Shane" Battier, "Corey" Maggette and "Elton" Brand. I had a joke about them missing out on a recruit named Thurston Washington but I think it's time to move on.

At Seattle by 13.5 over Tennessee: The Pick - Seahawks

The next three quarterbacks the Seahawks will see at home are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mike Glennon and the aforementioned Christian Ponder/Matt Cassel/Josh Freeman cookout leftover plate . . . just in case you were wondering about the roaring laughter coming-out of their defensive film room.

At Denver by 27.5 over Jacksonville: The Pick - Jags

Why do I think that Peyton Manning is going to run this thing up to 35-3 in the first half and then ease off the gas just long enough to allow the Jags to cover? Maybe it's all of his charity work? ("Look, I'll kill a snitch . . . I'm not saying I have . . .").

At San Francisco by 11 over Arizona: The Pick - Cardinals

I'm applying the same theory that I used on the Chiefs-Raiders game. The 49ers will win this thing but it's a divisional game and the Cardinals defense is good enough to continue exposing Colin Kaepernick as a suspect passer. If only the Niners had a reliable quarterback who could complete a high percentage of his passes and not turn the ball over.

At New England by 2.5 over New Orleans: The Pick - Saints

Rumor has it that Gronk is coming back. Unfortunately for the Patriots, unless he can cover Jimmy Graham, it isn't going to matter.

At Dallas by 5.5 over Washington: The Pick - Cowboys

Or we could call them the . . . wait,
what were we talking about?

Since I've already started digging the race joke hole, let's keep shoveling. The recent resurfacing of the "Redskin" name controversy reminds of comedian Nick Dipaolo's classic line in response to people who don't like the way Italians are portrayed in The Sopranos, "if you want to complain about the way Italians are portrayed on TV, let's start with those Olive Garden commercials." With that being said, I fully expect the Redskins to change their name within the next five years. The question is which way do they go? Do they stick with the Washington theme like the Capitals and Nationals or do they go a different direction like the Wizards? The Illusionists would be fitting in light of what they led us to believe they were going to be this season (a good team) as opposed to what they are (not a good team).

Indianapolis by 1.5 at San Diego: The Pick - Colts

The Colts look very solid right now and they've proven they can win on the road with victories at San Francisco and ahem Jacksonville. On the other side, the Chargers looked like they might have a wild card shot before they Norved it up against the Raiders last week.

Last Week's Record: 9-5 . . . Season Record: 44-31-1

The FGR Week 4 and 5 Fantasy Teams

I wasn't hiding last week's fantasy scores (though I should have been), I just forgot to report them so here are two weeks' worth. The weekly per team average of the league from which I am drawing these scores is just a shade over 90 points per game so Week 4 would have been my first fictional loss.

Week 4		Week 5
Matthew Stafford - 15		Matthew Stafford - 14
LeSean McCoy - 9		LeSean McCoy - 14
Chris Johnson - 3		Chris Johnson - 13
T.Y. Hilton - 4		Randall Cobb - 10
Marques Colston - 9		Alshon Jeffery - 30
Jason Witten - 4		Jason Witten - 21
Ravens - 14		Ravens - 12
Jay Feely - 7		Jay Feely - 9
Total - 65		Total - 123
Bench		Bench
Eli Manning - 7		Eli Manning - 18
Bernard Pierce - 0		Bernard Pierce - 4
Shonn Greene - 0		Shonn Greene - 0
Knowshon Moreno - 14		Knowshon Moreno - 20
Julian Edleman - 14		Julian Edleman - 3
Alshon Jeffery - 23		Marques Colston - 1
Randall Cobb - BYE		T.Y. Hilton - 29

For this week, I'm going with McCoy and Moreno at running back with Jeffery and Hilton at wide receiver. Visiting wide receivers generally don't fare well in Baltimore (at least that's my completely baseless theory) so I'm gambling by leaving Cobb on the pine.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.

Endnotes

* Consider that this is coming from the perspective of a fan who has had the pleasure of watching his favorite team win two Super Bowls and reel-off five consecutive playoff seasons. I can't speak for Browns fans or Bills fans who probably covet the opportunity to watch Adrian Peterson run roughshod over their defenses because at least it makes their teams highlight worthy. (What? The Browns are 3-2?!? Yeah right).

** I genuinely hope that Gabbert goes on to be a great coach or make a fortune in the restaurant business because he's certainly earned it by suffering through his brief awful career without taking a swing at a writer. Then again, Blaine and I have never met.

Fantasy Golf: The 2013 PGA Tour Wrap-Up

It seems to me that the only thing more ridiculous than trying to stage meaningful games in a sports season after all of the really meaningful games have been played would be to play your most meaningful game the first week of the season.* The PGA has apparently come to the same conclusion so, instead of staging the "Fall Finish" which sounds more like a Sherwin Williams product than a series of golf tournaments, they've decided to start the 2014 season on October 10, 2013 and in the process they have conceded any shred of an argument that they are concerned for player safety. Just when Angel Cabrera was preparing to dial it back to two packs a day after the Presidents' Cup, he's got to open up the chimney flume that is his windpipe and play in the Fryes.com Open. They're running El Pato** into the ground and no one seems to care!

"So far, reading this column reminds
me of another recent experience."

With that pointless rant out of the way, let's gain some closure on the 2013 season and start looking ahead to 2013-14. The Fantasy Golf Report began this year by boldly*** attempting to project what the final FedEx Cup rankings would look like while also picking the winners of each major, WGC event and The Players Championship. Because we are all about accountability, let's take a look back and see how we did starting with a review of our preseason top ten alongside our pre-playoffs top ten and the final top ten. After that, we will do a three page dissertation on the salad spinner . . . where did it come from and for the love of all that is holy where did it go?

Preseason                 Pre-Playoffs                Final Results

1.  Rory McIlroy		Adam Scott		Henrik Stenson
2.  Tiger Woods		Matt Kuchar		Tiger Woods
3.  Jason Dufner		Tiger Woods		Steve Stricker
4.  Keegan Bradley		Henrik Stenson		Adam Scott
5.  Justin Rose		Zach Johnson		Zach Johnson
6.  Bubba Watson		Brandt Snedeker		Matt Kuchar
7.  Matt Kuchar		Lee Westwood		Jordan Spieth
8.  Dustin Johnson		Phil Mickelson		Graham DeLaet
9.  Lee Westwood		Bill Haas		Phil Mickelson
10. Phil Mickelson		Rory McIlroy		Justin Rose

That was a huge swing and a miss on McIlroy but I was not alone. When it was announced that he was changing to Nike clubs, I don't think any of us envisioned a nine month adjustment period. Wait a minute, there's no chance the following scene occurred sometime back in late 2012 is there?

INT. SECRET CONFERENCE ROOM AT NIKE CAMPUS

Phil Knight: Tiger, we need you back on top. If there's anything Nike can do to make that happen, you let us know.

Tiger: Well you could sign Rory to a huge contract and then fit him with crap equipment.

(The room bursts into good natured laughter and, as it dies down, one maniacal laugh can still be heard).

Phil Knight: Make it happen.

END OF SCENE

"Use your open eye Jason."

Speaking of misses, I'm still trying to figure-out exactly what Dufner was doing from January through July when it looked like he was playing with his eyes closed before showing-up at the PGA Championship shooting lasers. Bubba Watson apparently came down with Post-Greenjacketitis, Lee Westwood was a bit more Westwoodian than usual and Dustin Johnson found something he liked to do more than playing golf. We probably should have seen all three coming.

On the positive side, I pegged Tiger's finish and was one spot off on Kuch and Mickelson. The only other correct top ten pick was Justin Rose. Stenson's comeback came out of nowhere when you consider that he started the season by getting bounced in the first round of the Matchplay, missing the cut at the Honda Classic and then finishing 39th at the borderline Web.com Tour event in Puerto Rico. And I certainly didn't see Steve Stricker averaging almost $350,000 per start on his limited schedule and capping-off the season by finishing 2nd, 4th and 2nd in three playoff events though he did confirm one of my fundamental beliefs in life which is that when it comes to working, less is more.

So how about the big tournament winners, did we hit on any of those? You're goddamn right we did! Let's start with the good as we picked Adam Scott to win the Masters and Tiger Woods to win the Bridgestone. We also had a couple close calls with Dufner at the U.S. Open and Ian Poulter at the Matchplay (they both finished 4th). On the flip side, we went with Luke Donald (19th) and Bo Van Pelt (62nd) at the Players but, in our defense, we didn't get the memo that Van Pelt was taking the year off until it was too late (one top ten Bo?!? One?!?). Usually good players only experience drop-offs like that when their wives are having babies or smashing the windows of their cars while screaming, "the stuffing was dry?!? . . . THE STUFFING WAS DRY?!? . . . YOU MUTHER . . ."

The FGR Rankings

"I'm telling you that if Bones wasn't
a black belt in jiu-jitsu, we never
would've made it out alive."

We have one FGR qualifying event left in the season with the HSBC  sporting a loaded field which includes Mickelson, Stenson, Rose, Dufner and probably Tiger. Under the FGR formula, a win is worth 25 points so any player all the way down to McIlroy at no. 6 could take over the top spot and claim the prestigious FGR Player of the Last Two Years award (that I just made-up). It couldn't have worked-out much better in 2013 as the top five is comprised of the four major winners plus Tiger. Let's just hope that Rory doesn't win and make my whole contrived ranking system look like a sabermetric representation of his hair.

	FGR Top 20		WGR Top 20
1.	Scott, A.	122	Woods	12.84
2.	Woods	121	Scott	9.27
3.	Rose	112	Mickelson	8.51
4.	Mickelson	110	Stenson	8.15
5.	Dufner	105	Rose	7.54
6.	McIlroy	97	McIlroy	7.31
7.	Kuchar	79	Stricker	6.72
8.	Poulter	75	Kuchar	6.58
9.	Els	74	Snedeker	6.20
10.	McDowell	65	Dufner	5.93
11.	Stenson	64	Johnson, Z.	5.40
12.	Westwood	63	McDowell	5.33
13.	Bradley, K.	58	Furyk	5.09
14.	Mahan	57	Donald	5.08
15.	Day, J.	55	Bradley	4.97
16.	Stricker	55	Day	4.89
17.	Watson, B.	53	Garcia	4.49
18.	Hanson, P.	49	Westwood	4.44
19.	Furyk	49	Schwartzel	4.43
20.	Simpson, W.	47	Spieth	4.34

Looking Ahead

It just feels too early to start forecasting 2014**** when the paint isn't even dry on Henrik Stenson's giant $10M check yet but if you find yourself needing some guidance at this point, here are ten predictions, four of which I am guaranteeing (just not sure which four).

1. Tiger will continue to win on courses he likes. I picked him to win the 2014 Masters when I was previewing the 2013 Masters so I will stick with that. The U.S. Open is at Pinehurst where he has finished second and tied for third in 2005 and 1999 respectively. The British Open is at Royal Liverpool where Tiger won in 2006 and the PGA Championship is at Valhalla where Tiger won in a 2000 playoff. (Holy crap, looks like Tiger is getting barred from my season long league again this year).

2. Adam Scott will solidify his position as the second best player in the world. It's just a matter of time before Tiger overtakes him in the FGR Rankings but Scott has finished top ten in six of the last twelve majors so he's not going to give it up without a fight . . . even if he has to send Stevie Williams to do the actual fighting.

3. The guy who is not in the FGR top 10 now who will be at this time next year is Hunter Mahan. The guy who will drop all the way from the top 10 out of the top 20 is Ernie Els and if you saw him trying to putt at the Presidents' Cup you know why. I kept yipping my beer and spilling it all over myself just watching him.

Actually, it'll probably suck but
I needed to spice things up a bit.

4. Megan Fox's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles will be a summer blockbuster.

5. We've seen the last of Luke Donald. He really blew a golden opportunity at Merion where he shot 6 over on the front nine in the final round and lost by 5. He's not going to find many more major courses that set-up for his game that well until he starts "playing it forward" in 15 years.

6. I have no idea which direction Rory McIlroy's game is heading. I know this isn't a prediction but I am at a total loss. If you can make a good case for why he will be better or worse in 2014, email it to me and I'll print it.

7. Rickie Fowler is this generation's Fred Couples. Everyone likes Rickie and agrees that he has plenty of talent to win a major but he just doesn't put himself in contention to do it often enough. Look for him to come out of nowhere and take down the 2019 British Open.

8. Nick Watney is the guy we thought was going to be good who inexplicably fell-off the map but is actually really good. Look for a big 2014 from him.

9. Billy Horschel will have a serious sophomore slump, Jordan Spieth will not and we may never hear from Russell Henley again.

10. The debate as to whether Sergio Garcia or Colin Montgomerie is the greatest Ryder Cup player never to win a major will be settled when Sergio dominates at Gleneagles next year after making another failed run at a major.

Endnotes

* That would be a not so veiled shot at NASCAR but what would you expect from a sport where one competitor crashes on purpose so another competitor can get into the playoffs but then the commissioner's office steps in and decides that that's not fair so they throw-out the guy who benefited from the crash but not the guy who crashed on purpose and then they decide that one of the biggest names in the sport got screwed in the deal so they add an "extra" playoff spot and let him in. Confused? Well just imagine if the NFL shut-off the power to the Super Bowl to avoid a blowout. It's kind of like that (you're Goddamn right I went there!).

** Just one of the greatest nicknames in sports - "The Duck." Short and to the point. By the way, if you don't think the Duck is going to live to 100 while shooting his age at Augusta deep into his 70's, then I'm afraid that your thinking is incorrect. I said GOOD DAY SIR!

"You put an extra pack in the bag in
case we go to a playoff right?"

*** Yes I said "boldly." I'm latching-on to this new notion that everyone from athletes to stand-up comedians can be "courageous," "brave" and "bold." You know who are "courageous," "brave" and bold? Men and women who fight wars, fires and bad guys, people battling life-threatening illnesses and doctors who put their lives at risk to save others. Other than a few more examples that I'm sure I missed, that's it . . . that's the list. "Oh he's so courageous for playing with cracked ribs." Stop it.

**** Maybe it feels too early because (a) the World Series hasn't started, (b) I haven't seen any ads with people giving luxury sedans as Christmas gifts like they're toaster ovens and (c) the Jags haven't been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.

The FGR Thursday Night NFL Pick

Are you really Harry Potter?

At Chicago by 8.5 over N.Y. Giants: The Pick - Giants

I'm still having a hard time believing that the Giants are that bad and the Bears are that good. Remember that two of Chicago's three wins came against the Steelers who are 0-4 and the Vikings who are 1-3 with their only win coming against the Steelers so the Bears could really be a 6-10 team in disguise. Not to mention, when you have two of the greatest "shaky good" quarterbacks of all time squaring-off against each other, that presents so many variables that you have to take the points when you're getting this many.

The FGR Week 5 NFL Picks (Part 2)

Let's pick-up where we left-off with last Saturday's timeline. As you may recall, I had just spent the last two hours almost falling asleep on the couch before watching my son's soccer team get blown off the field (that could potentially be the worst opening sentence to a novel ever other than, "as a scientist, Throckmorton knew that if he broke wind in the echo chamber, he would never hear the end of it" - for more of these, click here). Fortunately, I would have a chance that afternoon to redeem the family name.

4:30 p.m.: After being inspired by my son's team's Jacksonville Jaguar impersonation, I had to play a quarterfinal tennis match in my club's "Men's B Singles Club Championship" which is the tennis equivalent of a gluten free pie eating contest. I don't know what being a "B" tennis player means. All I know is that I won this thing in 2011 when I beat a 73 year old guy in the finals on a day when the heat index was 100+. The match took three long sets and at first, I thought he was going to have a heart attack but then I realized that I was the one doing all of the running and midway through the final set my legs started cramping-up. I held-on to win in what must have looked like the tennis version of the lumbering slugfest at the end of Rocky II only if I had been fighting Mick instead of Apollo Creed.

"Great match buddy.
Sorry you died."

I figured winning the "B" title two years in a row wouldn't be very sporting so last year I paid my dues by getting my ass kicked in the "A" division. With that out of the way, I'm diving back into my gene pool. The match on Saturday was fairly uneventful. I was better than the guy I was playing so I just spent an hour bunting the ball back to him waiting for him to make a mistake.* Words that don't come to mind are "scintillating," "inspiring" and "watchable."

6:30 p.m.: (Editor's Note: I wasn't sure about this entry because it doesn't necessarily represent how I feel about eating dinner with my kids but that doesn't mean it's not fairly accurate so screw it, here goes). Everyone agrees that having dinner as a family is healthy but, in the same way that you don't want to over exercise or eat too many beans, moderation is key. I love hanging-out with my kids but let's face it, there are reasons that kids aren't invited to formal dinner parties. Just to name a couple: (1) the only thing more boring than listening to someone describe what happened to their fantasy football team is listening to someone describe what happened to them while playing a video game and (2) people generally prefer that their guests not intentionally wipe their hands on the curtains, furniture and cats.

We may need to see more of Mrs.
Brody to save this season, and
I don't mean more of her acting.

10:15 p.m.: After telling my kids to go to bed for two straight hours before they finally stopped ignoring me while they toiled away on their Rainbow Looms,** I settled in to watch the most recent episode of The Bridge a/k/a the show that has forced me to fall so far behind on Breaking Bad that, by the time I get to the series finale, I'll have forgotten all of the spoilers.

10:45 p.m.: I fell asleep with 15 minutes left in The Bridge which is hard to do but it's apparently my new move. The next night, I caught-up on The Bridge before falling asleep three quarters of the way through Homeland which currently has its blinker on with every indication that it's about to take a left turn down Unwatchable Road.

Speaking of Unwatchable Road . . .

At St. Louis by 11.5 over Jacksonville: The Pick - Rams

The Jags are averaging less than 8 points per game which means that, even if they "explode" for 14 in this game, the Rams will only need 26 to cover. Of course the Jags are giving-up over 32 points per game so there you go. By the way, Sam Bradford is terrible.***

Kansas City by 2.5 at Tennessee: The Pick - Chiefs

The Chiefs and Broncos coached by formerly fired coaches Andy Reid and John Fox will likely be a combined 16-2 or 17-1 when they meet on November 17th. The teams with very suspect rosters and rocky quarterback situations that they left behind, the Eagles and Panthers, will likely be a combined 5-11 or 6-10. If you were Mike Tomlin, wouldn't the thought periodically cross your mind to walk into the Steelers front office and poop on the carpet just so you can escape the unravelling of the Roethlisberger era?

At Miami by 3 over Baltimore: The Pick - Ravens

I should have known better. The Bills game was the early season road game the Ravens were supposed to win and the Dolphins game is the early season road game they are supposed to lose so they will of course reverse that just to mess with everyone. As a Ravens' fan, I have all the faith in the world in John Harbaugh based on the last five seasons so I hope that at least one point during the second half last week as the Ravens were in the process of calling twenty consecutive passing plays when Joe Flacco clearly did not have his "A" game, he asked offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell the following question: "Jim, can you please tell me exactly what in the fuck are we doing?"

At Cincinnati by 1.5 over New England: The Pick - Patriots

Oh those lovable Bengals. If not for one of the luckiest wins you'll ever see against the Packers, they'd be 1-3 coming-off a 17-6 beatdown at the hands of the Browns who are supposed to be tanking. It's going to be fun watching them come to grips with the fact that Andy Dalton is a poor man's Matt Schaub. Let's hope it takes them a couple more years to figure it out before they trade him to the Raiders for a first round pick.

Seattle by 2.5 at Indianapolis: The Pick - Colts

Merry Christmas Colt fans.
Enjoy your effin' fifteen years
of Super Bowl contention.

We know the Seahawks are going to lose a road game soon because of the way they keep dodging bullets. Meanwhile, the Colts have won their last two games by a combined score of 64-10 (and I know one of those was against the Jags but the other one was at the 49ers to they kind of cancel each other out). If I was a Colts fan, I would feel like I have about the fourth or fifth most reliable quarterback in the league right now behind, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and maybe Tom Brady. (Please don't talk to me about Tony Romo's 105.0 quarterback rating in September which is the football version of A-Rod's regular season batting average).

At Green Bay by 6.5 over Detroit: The Pick - Packers

My son asked me the other night if I thought Aaron Rodgers would win another Super Bowl and I said "yes" before I started to really think about it. Rodgers is 29 and let's say he plays 8 more seasons after this one which is realistic considering his healthy track record and what Peyton Manning is doing these days at the age of 37. That gives him nine more shots to win another ring. I figure Manning, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck are going to combine for at least four titles over that span which leaves Rodgers five chances and I like his odds. (Note: When I started writing about this premise, I was going to conclude that I didn't like his chances and then I got to the end and went the other way . . . just the kind of in-depth analysis you've come to expect from the Fantasy Golf Report).

At Chicago by 6.5 over New Orleans: The Pick - Saints

Now that Jay Cutler has settled-down and has as many turnovers as touchdown passes, can we get past the notion that the Bears are a Super Bowl contender and start dreaming about a Saints-Seahawks NFC Championship Game?

At N.Y. Giants by 2.5 over Philadelphia: The Pick - Giants

I'm going to rip-off D.J. Gallo's line for this one: "Chip Kelly's defense is on pace to revolutionize offense in the NFL." This week, however, Kelly's team may have met their incompetent match as we have the resistable force that is the Giants' turnover machine against the movable object that is the Eagles' defense. I guess I'll take the home team?

San Diego by 4.5 at Oakland: The Pick - Chargers

Believe me, if there's one thing Ravens fans understand, it's that you never want your team quarterbacked by a guy who scored a big contract off a one game performance and was subsequently shopped for a 5th round draft pick and case of Tenactin by the team that foolishly signed him (see Scott Mitchell).

Just butt fumble baby!!!

Here is the list of Raiders starting quarterbacks since former MVP Rich Gannon was taking snaps: Matt Flynn, Terrelle Pryor, Carson Palmer, Jason Campbell, Kyle Boller (Kyle Boller . . . really!?!), Bruce Gradkowski, JaMarcus Russell, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, Josh McCown, Daunte Culpepper, Aaron Brooks, Kerry Collins and of course, Marques Tuiasosopo. Looking at that list, clearly the question is not will Mark Sanchez be a Raider but when?

Carolina by 2 at Arizona: The Pick - Cardinals

I'm sticking with the Cardinals as my dark horse wild card pick despite some very shaky recent play by Carson Palmer. Just to clarify, my dark horse is being quarterbacked by a guy who couldn't cut it with the Bengals and the Raiders. Proceed with caution.

Denver by 7 at Dallas: The Pick - Broncos

The Broncos' average margin of victory this year is 22 points and their closest game was a 16 point win over the Raiders who they understandably had a hard time taking seriously. How can they not be at least double digit favorites in every game until someone stays with them for four quarters?

At San Francisco by 7 over Houston: The Pick - 49ers

On one side you have Matt Schaub who has thrown a pick six in three consecutive games. On the other side, you have frothing Jim Harbaugh who may be feeling that his 1970's Woody Hayes coaching approach is wearing a bit thin with his players so his championship window may not be open as long as he thought. Especially because the quarterback he ditched is 4-0 with 7 touchdowns and 2 turnovers while the guy he kept is 2-2 with 4 touchdowns and 7 turnovers.

At Atlanta by 8.5 over N.Y. Jets: The Pick - Falcons

You have to love Jet fans (well you don't really . . . it's a figure of speech or a saying or something). Their team is coming-off a 38-13 shellacking and their quarterback has 11 turnovers in four games but that doesn't stop them from being chesty and defiant. We wouldn't want them any other way.

Last Week's Record: 8-6-1 . . . Season Record: 35-26-1

Email the FGR here.

Endnotes

* I'm glad that tennis hasn't resorted to a handicap system by awarding the lesser player a two game lead in every set or some other contrived field-leveling concept. I'm frankly surprised that golf's handicap system isn't the subject of more derision as the sporting world's answer to pure communism. Isn't this the perfect description of the handicap system: "From each according to his ability to each according to his need"? You have to love the guy who stands on the range bitching about taxes and welfare before hitting the first tee and saying, "ok I get three a side." (Note that in this scenario, the Tea Partier completely opposes the handicap system as a matter of principal but gladly takes his strokes anyway . . . I think it's time to get back on topic).

Let's go sweetie . . . you're
about to miss your quota
for the second day in a row.

** Are you sure the government shutdown isn't just a diversion so we won't notice that the Rainbow Loom has turned half of the American households into East Asian sweatshops?

*** I'm going to end every Rams' pick this season with that line because it's true. It's time we dispense with the "if he just had some weapons" argument for quarterbacks like Bradford. The Patriots could start three Division I women's volleyball players at wide receiver and Tom Brady would still win 8 games while completing 65% of his passes (God I hate that guy).