The Week 6 NFL Picks - Part 1

As noted in last week's picks, I just spent three days in Orlando earning so much in credit card cash back rewards that I think I've covered next month's mortgage payment. It was like eating and drinking at an NFL game that lasted 72 hours. By the time we got back to Baltimore, all I had left to give the shuttle bus driver for a tip were my shoes. Fortunately, we were about the same size.

The other byproduct of the trip was that I had no time to write because all of my evenings were spent planning the next day's assault on the amusement parks like we were squaring off against Erwin Rommel in the North African campaign.* So we're going to try something I started working on a few months ago for just such an emergency. In my ongoing effort to rip-off every column gimmick from my favorite sportswriters, I am going to take a crack at a Bill Simmons-esque mailbag. Just like the Simmons mailbags, these are actual emails from actual readers.**

Dear FGR,

My wife and I have a two year old son and I was thinking of building a sandbox for him in our backyard. Is this a good idea?

"Sandboat"?!? They should
have called it "Shitboat"!

- - Larry Dallas, Santa Monica, California

FGR: The sandbox is not a good idea it's a GREAT idea. Believe me, you have never felt the true weight of something until you've carried 200 pounds of sand. Once you build and fill-it, your son will love it . . . for a week and then it will become the outhouse for the neighborhood cats. Eight years later you will finally decide to take a sledgehammer to it but only after you've emptied it and discovered that 200 pounds of eight year old sand is harder to get rid of than weapons-grade plutonium. Be sure to take a lot of pictures that first week.
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Dear FGR,

I had to stop watching Dexter after my third consecutive nightmare featuring Edward James Almos and his creepy apprentice and I refuse to jump-on the CSI bandwagon. Is there another good detective show out there for me?

- - Stanley Wojciehowicz, Greenwich Village, New York

For the last time Detective Reese I
confess. Here's the murder weapon.
Now would you please cuff me?

Check-out Life starring Damian Lewis who is better in this than he is in Homeland. It aired on NBC from 2007 - 2009 before they inexplicably cancelled it.*** (If Showtime had gotten its hands on it first, we'd still be watching it). The basic gist of it is that Lewis' character is a former cop who is sentenced to life for murders he didn't commit. The show starts soon after his release from prison once he is exonerated and wins a hefty settlement for wrongful prosecution. (Yes the premise is a little thin but you get past it). By the time he gets out of jail, he's a Zen wise-ass/bad-ass detective. Then to spice it up,  he's partnered with Sarah Shahi who pushes the envelope every week in the "I'm almost buying that a police detective would actually wear that to work" department. So it's got that going for it . . . which is nice.

Email the FGR
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We'll continue with this theme for the rest of this week's picks tomorrow (or Saturday but definitely not later than Sunday) but for now, let's deal with the Thursday night game which, for those of us dedicated to picking every game of the season, has become a euphemism for "big pain in my ass."

Pittsburgh by 6 over Tennessee: The Pick - Steelers

I would normally be reluctant to pick a team giving 6 points that just scored a measly 16 coming out of their bye week unless they happened to be playing the Titans who surrendered 30 points to the Viking and, in the process, actually lowered their points per game allowed to 36.2. A more entertaining wager would be Steelers' points versus Chris Johnson rushing yards. In a related note, Chris Johnson (my first round draft pick) just got traded for the second time in my fantasy league. It's a six player deal in which he is the fifth best player involved.  

Endnotes

* The desert combat reference is probably not far off considering how you feel after spending a hot day in an amusement park. At the end of the first day at Legoland, the FGW and I had the following exchange:

FGW: "Do you think that pirate ship is made out of Lego?"

Me: "Right now I think your breath is made out of Lego."

Thank God she laughed because we still had two days to go. We are now up to reason no. 3,789 why I believe the FGW was put on this Earth two months after me to balance out my Karmic existence.

** If you count me as a "reader."

*** I'm sure they cancelled it because not enough people watched it. I'm also sure not enough people watched it because they called it "Life" which would have been like calling The Sopranos "Crime" or calling ER "Sick." 

The Week 5 NFL Picks - Part 2

This edition of the FGR's weekly NFL picks is dedicated to Mike Preston. Who is Mike Preston you ask? Well I'll tell you. Mike Preston is a sportswriter for the Baltimore Sun and he is one of the inspirations for the creation of the FGR. But he's not an inspiration in the same sense that Bill Simmons is an inspiration or David Sedaris is an inspiration. Mike Preston is an inspiration for the FGR in the same way that third degree burn was the inspiration for the oven mitt and jock itch was the inspiration for Tenactin.

Little known fact: Gene's nickname
in college was "Jelly Bean" due to his
love of chocolate covered raisins.

Instead of critiquing Mr. Preston's work, I'm just going to quote it and let you decide for yourself (and then I'll probably critique it). Here is what he wrote last Friday after the Ravens played the first game of the season after the return of the regular referees. You tell me if this is a guy with his finger on the pulse. He wrote, "the NFL Network made too big of a deal about the regular officials returning Thursday night." OK I can't help myself, I have to cut-in there. Too big a deal? The NFL referee debacle may ultimately be the biggest sports story of 2012. Unless the NFL Network completely preempted the game for A Day in the Life of Gene Steratore, I'm not sure they could have made too big a deal about the return of the regular refs. Did Preston completely miss the Packers-Seahawks controversy? (Actually, as a Baltimore Sun sportswriter, he may have).

Let's continue with the quote. "Did we really need to see them in street clothes coming into the stadium? Did we really need to see [Ray] Lewis, who never met a camera he didn't like, hugging them?" Um . . . yes we did. Like it or not, in the moments leading-up to the kickoff of that game, the refs were the story. And if you're the NFL Network telling that story and you get the opportunity to display an image of a first ballot hall of famer hugging one of the officials, you do it. (Unless you're the Baltimore Sun in which case you would be scanning the bleachers for a shot of a guy who played special teams for the '56 Colts).

And in closing, "[o]fficials should never be bigger than the game or the players. On Thursday night, they were bigger than life, thanks to the NFL Network." Hey Mike, I think the whole point of the NFL Network's focus on the return of the regular officials was that the replacement refs were the dominant story of the first three weeks of the season and were therefore bigger than the game and the players. So while your conclusion is 100% accurate, your whole point is 100% asinine but thanks for reminding me why I only get home delivery on the weekends so I can read my kids The Peanuts and Garfield (I love that smarmy cat).

"I've counted to infinity . . . twice."

Atlanta by 3 over Washington: The Pick - Falcons

With RG, III, we may be verging on a player about whom we can start saying things like, "his right hand is the only hand that beats a Royal Flush" and "the quickest way to a man's heart is with RG, III's fist" and "when RG, III falls out of a boat, he doesn't get wet, the water gets RG, III." Unfortunately for the Redskins, he only plays offense (for now).

Pittsburgh by 3.5 over Philadelphia: The Pick - Steelers

I initially had the Eagles in this spot based on the theory that their win over the Giants means that they're good and the Steelers loss to the Raiders means that they're bad but I don't actually believe either of those to be true. The Steelers have the one characteristic that every fan of every sport wishes their favorite team had. You can't count them out until the DNA tests AND the dental records come back with an identical match. (God I hate those guys).

Green Bay by 7 over Indy: The Pick - Packers

Bill Simmons made a good point when he noted that many were quick to knock Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense after weak outings against the defenses of the Giants (on a Super Bowl run), the 49ers (maybe the best in the league), the Bears (no slouch themselves) and the Seahawks on the road (in the game where the ineptitude of the replacement refs crescendoed). Then again, I'm not sure we can use the Saints' Big 12 Conference defensive scheme as much of a barometer either but the Colts aren't much better.

N.Y. Giants by 10 over Cleveland: The Pick - Browns

No you're right, you do deserve
more respect than that.

I think we all know how this one is going to play out. The Giants build a big lead going into the 4th, Eli throws a loose pick and Brandon "Backdoor Cover" Weeden swoops in for the kill. I may ultimately owe Weeden an apology. Of all of the quarterbacks drafted in the first round over the past three years who are destined to be second-rate (Ponder, Locker, Gabbert and Bradford), he may ultimately prove to be the best (I think I just invented something called the "Cleveland compliment").

Minnesota by 5.5 over Tennessee: The Pick - Vikings

How's that for a segue? We almost had a Ponder-Locker match-up this weekend but it looks like Locker will be too banged-up to go which means it's time to wheel Matt Hassleback's corpse back onto the field and watch him try to overcome the 37+ point hole the Titans defense is digging every week. At least Chris Johnson finally stepped-up last week . . . right after I traded him for seventy-five cents on the dollar.

Cincinnati by 4.5 over Miami: The Pick - Bengals

A match-up of two big variable teams. The Bengals appear to be developing into an offensive machine with absolutely no defense and who knows what in the hell the Dolphins are? I'm not going to give them any credit for their effort against the Cardinals after what happened on Thursday night. Keeping it close against the Cardinals on the road was cancelled out by allowing Kevin Kolb to come back and beat them. When you let Kolb throw a 15 yard touchdown pass to tie on 4th and 10 with 22 seconds left, you need to go back and reevaluate everything, right down to the brand of toilet paper in the locker room.

Judging from the background, this
picture was taken in the 4th quarter
of that 2011 playoff game.

Baltimore by 5.5 over Kansas City: The Pick - Ravens

We saw this game in the 2011 playoffs and learned that, if Matt Cassell is a deer in the headlights, the Ravens' defense is an 18-wheeler with faulty breaks. The only reason you go the other way on this one is if you have this pegged as one of Joe Flacco's three road game clunkers which it certainly could be.

Carolina by 3 over Seattle: The Pick - Panthers

In 1939, Winston Churchill* conveyed the difficulty of forecasting the actions of Russia by describing it as "a riddle, wrapped inside a mystery, inside an enigma." By the end of the 2012 season, we're going to be saying the same thing about trying to pick Panthers' games. When in doubt, pick against the Seahawks on the road.

Chicago by 5.5 over Jacksonville: The Pick - Bears

The winner of the "Line I Don't Get" of the week award. I know Jay Cutler is about as reliable as a meth chef but he's only going to need to put up 17 points to cover this number.

Needed something to balance
out the Dawg Pound picture.

New England by 6.5 over Denver: The Pick - Patriots

It's been a few years but I seem to recall Peyton Manning never being able to win in New England when he was surrounded by good Colts teams. His current cast is very suspect and the Pas are still playing pissed-off from getting jobbed in Baltimore (yes I admit it and I don't care . . . suck it Belichick . . . suck it!).

San Francisco by 9 over Buffalo: The Pick - 49ers

This is a big number for a team with offensive limitations (which could be Alex Smith's nickname) against a team that can at least be described as competent. And I'm sure "competent" is exactly what the Bills were gunning for when they went out and spent a zillion dollars rebuilding their defense in the offseason only to watch Tom Brady mock it last Sunday.

New Orleans by 3.5 over San Diego: The Pick - Saints

The formula of picking against the Cardinals until they lost because they were so overdue worked so well this week that I'm going to apply it in reverse to the Saints who actually showed some signs of life in Green Bay last Sunday. In an unrelated story, this game features the starting quarterback from each of my fantasy football teams, one of whom is absolutely killing me. I probably should have taken notice that the room would always go silent when I was saying crazy shit like, "Phillip Rivers is going to be a steal in the 5th round" which he actually would have been . . . as a back-up.

Houston by 7.5 over N.Y. Jets: The Pick - Texans

"And these wristbands and
my Super Bowl ring . . .
and that's all I need."

So the fall of Santonio Holmes appears to have been completed on a play where he collapsed to the ground untouched and, in the process, tossed the ball to the opposing cornerback who took it the other way for a touchdown. But that's life sometimes. One day you're making catches to win the Super Bowl before complaining about no bamboo umbrellas in your drink and snails on your wife's plate, and the next you're getting carted-off the field after handing the other team a touchdown in a 34-0 loss. I guess it could be worse. He could be Mark Sanchez getting ready to play at home on Monday night where the whole country will get to hear the chants . . . "TEEEEEEBOW . . . . TEEEEEEBOW!"

Last Week: 7-8 . . . . Season: 27-34-2

And now, I'm off to Disney World. (Seriously . . . pray for me).

Endnotes

* I must admit that I'm feeling pretty good about a column where I quote Winston Churchill, Chuck Norris and Mike Preston.

Email the FGR

The Week 5 NFL Picks - Part 1

It was another rough week at 7-8 but at least I'm trending in the right direction as that's my best performance so far this year (baby steps). I am taking some solace in the fact that Ron Jaworski, a former NFL quarterback who studies game tape all day and then picks games on the Tony Kornheiser Show, is 7-13. On the the other hand, the show also has a monkey from the National Zoo named Reginald pick three games a week and he's 10-2. So I'm ahead of a Polish quarterback from upstate New York but getting killed by a simian in captivity. Seems about right.

I'm getting very close to going into full Constanza mode by thoroughly analyzing my picks and then doing the opposite but we're going to stick with the "formula" for one more week.*

The Cards cheerleaders deserve
credit for distracting the players
from the guy under center.

Arizona by 1.5 over St. Louis: The Pick - Rams

I have absolutely no faith in Sam Bradford and the Rams. With that being said, we've reached the point of their run where I'm going to keep picking against the Cardinals until they lose because this simply can't continue. Five of their last thirteen games have gone to overtime and they've won them all. Sounds like the definition of "borrowed time" to me. Sooner or later the team is going to snap-out of this dream state and say, "holy shit, when did Kevin Kolb become our quarterback again?" That will be the beginning of the end.

Endnotes

* The "formula" works something like this: I write down all of the games with the spreads and in the split second before I move onto the next game, I make my pick based on a snap judgment. Then I go back later and attempt to justify my decision with some arbitrary stat or observation from past weeks. If you doubt this method based on its lack of scientific analysis, I would refer you back to the case of Jaws versus the monkey.

The Ryder Cup Post Mortem

Let's pick this up where I left off at the end of last week's Ryder Cup Preview with arguably my most important golf match of the year.* My partner and I had won four matches and advanced to the semifinals of a sixty-four team tournament that began in May. Up to that point, the closest one had gone to 18 with us one up but we got it done without much drama. On this day, however, it became clear early that we were in for a dogfight because neither team was giving anything away and we made the turn all square.

Fast forward to the 17th hole (because frankly 15 and 16 are too painful to recount). We were two down after losing the last two and my partner stuck it tight on a par-3 for a birdie to get us back to one down. We crushed our drives on 18 and I was absolutely convinced that we were going to win in extra holes. Then we both hit our second shots inside eight feet. Our opponents both hit the green and subsequently burned the edges with their birdie putts leaving us with two VERY makeable chances to extend the match. Then my partner missed his putt. Then I missed my putt. And it was over. Thanks for playing but get the hell off the stage.

I appreciate the effort . . . but I just
can't stop thinking about that putt.

The walk from our 18th green to the clubhouse is ridiculously long, probably about 400 yards. That day it felt like miles. I'll never forget the agonizing silence as neither one of us could speak and, out of respect, our opponents chose not to. Some people will tell you that a loss like that builds character. The problem is that at my age, the construction of my character is pretty much finished and it is what it is.** The only thing a loss like that is good for is if you ever find yourself needing an image to suppress a random boner.

So with that experience fresh in my past, I'm having a hard time piling-on guys like Steve Stricker and Jim Furyk for their performances at the Ryder Cup because I can't begin to imagine what they must be feeling. (I hope they took all of the laces out of Furyk's golf shoes). So instead let's focus on some of the decisions made by the man with the title fit for a 70's disc jockey or a really unimaginative porn star, Captain Love.

From the day he announced his captain's picks, this had the potential to be a less egregious repeat of the 1995 fiasco when Lanny Wadkins picked Curtis Strange and then watched him go 0-3 including a devastating loss to Nick Faldo in the singles where Strange bogeyed the last three holes to lose one down. (Strange was six years removed from his last win on tour and was 49th on the money list that year). Furyk was by no means as big a stretch as Strange based on his credentials and current playing ability but, in light of his having given away the U.S. Open and Bridgestone Invitational within the past few months, I'm not sure he's the guy we wanted playing 17 and 18 with the Cup hanging in the balance. Captain Love's decision to put him on the team under those conditions was suspect enough by why would you have him in a position where his match would only matter if something had gone terribly wrong and the Cup was on the line? That would have been like the partners at Sterling Cooper Draper Pryce sending Lane out to close an airline account knowing how close he had just come to ending it all when the Jaguar wouldn't start.***

"No pressure Jim but the
Cup is riding on this."

About midway through Sunday when the horizon was beginning to tilt but before the deck chairs started sliding, Captain Love was interviewed and said that when he set the line-up, he figured that Jason Dufner (9th in the order) would probably be the guy to get the winning point. This plan was contingent on the U.S. team splitting half the points in the first eight matches. The problem with that logic was that everyone knew that Europe was going to front-load with the match-play Murderers Row of Donald, Poulter, McIlroy and Rose because they had no other choice.

So knowing that, why would Captain Love try to match strength against strength? His hottest players coming into Sunday were Bradley, Mickelson, Simpson, Dufner and the two Johnsons.**** He wasted three of those guys against McIlroy, Poulter and Rose. Why not lead with Stricker who was 0-3 at that point, Furyk (see above) and Snedeker (Ryder Cup rookie) and see if you can steal a couple of half points? Then if things start poorly, leave icemen like Zach Johnson, Jason Dufner and Keegan Bradley to clean-up the mess. I actually think he had Tiger in the 12th spot to catch that last point if necessary (and there is no doubt in my mind that he would have won 18) but by then it was too late.

- "You got him?"
- "Yeah, I got him."
- "Take him."

And don't get me started on sitting Bradley for the Saturday afternoon matches while putting out golf's version of a flat soda in Woods and Stricker. I get that Mickelson didn't want to play but then shake things up and put Bradley with Woods. There is no way that (a) Bradley wanted to sit out that match or (b) he and Woods wouldn't have found a way to beat or halve Donald and Garcia in front of a wired and wasted crowd. At that point, Bradley was the surest thing in Chicago since George Stone.

So Europe has won four of the last five including this year's heartbreaker and two 18.5 to 9.5 blowouts in 2004 and 2006. What do we do now? Hey I've got an idea, let's take a look at our roster from the last time we won in 2008 and see what we can learn from it. That team had six guys who had never played in the Ryder Cup (Anthony Kim, Boo Weekley, J.B. Holmes, Hunter Mahan, Ben Curtis and Steve Stricker). Kim, Weekley, Holmes, Mahan and Curtis combined to win 12.5 points and went 4-1 in their singles matches. (Steve Stricker halved his singles match for his only half point . . . hmmm). Two of the five players this year who managed to win 3 points for the U.S. were rookies - Bradley and Dufner. To put it bluntly, what that tells me is that "Ryder Cup experience" don't mean shit so stop using it as a criteria for the captain's picks.

"That sure sounds like fortune
cookie wisdom to me FGR."

And stop picking "steady" guys because "steady" in match-play leaves you one down and telling Jimmy Roberts that you played well but it wasn't enough. Besides, Dufner, Zach Johnson and Matt Kuchar qualified for the team so we already had plenty of "steady" guys. We needed more birdie machines like Bo Van Pelt and Robert Garrigus who are currently 7th and 10th on tour in birdie average (Jim Furyk is 134th). It's basically the Moneyball argument applied to golf. Where runs = wins in baseball . . . birdies = wins in the Ryder Cup. Let's hope captain David Toms figures that out in 2014 because I don't know about you America . . . but I'm sick of losing.

If you have a comment, question, criticism or favorite recipe, you can reach the FGR here - Email the FGR.

Endnotes

* You've got to love the use of "arguably" there. As if I'm expecting someone to email me and say, "but what about that nine hole member-guest match you played in South Carolina back in June?" Though that emailer would make a good point because there was a lot riding on that match too.

** Some would say it's about the equivalent of a three bedroom split level with a detached carport, an above-ground pool and a leaky basement.

*** My prediction that Lane Pryce would end last season either dead or in prison was one of the only ones I've gotten right this year.

**** Captain Love and the Two Johnsons . . . now we might be on to something.