The FGR Week 4 NFL Picks

We went 1-2 on last week's picks (barely), our fantasy team lost by about 50 points and our favorite team got trounced at home on Monday night. The word to describe that type of performance is currently "Keeganesque" but we remain undaunted and need a break from this Ryder Cup shit show so let's grind-out a few football picks between European birdies.  

Minnesota by 2.5 over Pittsburgh: The Pick - Vikings

Dear people of Ireland . . .
you too could look this stupid.

They're playing this game in Ireland as part of the NFL's ongoing effort to grow the game by sending some of its most obnoxious fan bases to foreign countries. Despite being 2-1, the Steelers are not very good with one score wins over the Patriots and Jets along with an overall point differential of -5. As long as Carson Wentz keeps throwing it to his own teammates, it should at least be an ugly 17-13 Vikings victory with the added bonus that an American team will probably win in Europe this weekend. 

L.A. Chargers by 6 at the N.Y. Giants: The Pick - Chargers

The coach/quarterback edge for the Chargers is double digits and the Giants defense is really not good so the only explanation for this line not being about -11.5 is that it's a cross-country 1:00 p.m. game. Jim Harbaugh will somehow find a way to use that to his advantage while Brian Dabold will figure-out how to do the opposite. 

Philadelphia Eagles by 3.5 at Tampa Bay: The Pick - Bucs

Not only do you get a home underdog that's 3-0, you also get one of the best late game quarterbacks in the league who will absolutely be slinging-it even if he's down 10 with five seconds to play so the may be more of a probability than a possibility. Also, the Eagles have now won 20 of their last 21 games which is just silly. The NFL does not do silly.  

Last Week's Record: 1-1 . . . Season Record: 1-2. 

Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.

The Ryder Cup Preview

The Ryder Cup heads to Long Island, New York which should be an ideal place to retake possession of it thanks to what will be a particularly "spirited" home crowd along with a golf course on which Americans have dominated. An American has won all five events at Bethpage since 2002 including three majors and in those majors they've posted fourteen top fives against only four by European players. It's like the Ford F-250 of golf courses so apparently it's too much to handle for those used to driving Mini Coopers.   

Long Island holds a special place in my heart as I've been making regular trips up there since my college days. A few of the stories may jeopardize the law license that I still think I have but there was one day that really captured what makes the place so unique. 

After a day that started with golf in the morning and then an afternoon in the ocean, about a dozen of us wiseass frat boys were fueled-up on enough booze and invincibility to carry us all the way to and right past the 4:00 a.m. closing time. Not satisfied with what we had already accomplished, we decided to walk out of town to the nearest bridge and jump off it into the water about twenty feet below (made sense at the time). 

By the time we emerged from the water by climbing onto boats in the marina like history's least intimidating aquatic assault team, we were fully recharged and hungry so we headed to the diner. At some point the conversation apparently included such an impressive stream of expletives that some bodybuilding goombah at the next table barked, "YO!!! . . . WE GOTTA LADY OVAH HEEYAH!!!" We took the hint and dialed it down . . . for about two minutes. As our volume climbed again, however, he and his fellow goombalados stood-up which knew from watching lots of movies would not end well for the frat boys so we took it as our Animal House cue to be "leaving, what a good idea."  

We'll circle back to why this is relevant in a few paragraphs but first, let's get golfy. 

GOLF ANALYSIS 

It's hard to ignore the fact that the road team hasn't won the Ryder Cup since 2012 when the Europeans came back from being down 10-6 after Saturday in what would later be known as the "Miracle at Medinah" or the "Meltdown at Medinah" depending on which side you were on. (I wrote extensively about it here with appropriate references to Mad Men, The Untouchables and of course Moneyball . . . some things never change). The closest margin of victory since 2012 is 5 points in 2014 and 2023 so the home team advantage is hard to dispute. 

The spread as of this posting is USA -1.5 with the following money lines:

USA Win: -150

Euro Win: +170

Tie: +1000

Let's break down the overall match-up along with some individual action along the way.

TALENT

It's a pretty remarkable field as we have 21 of the 25 top ranked players in the world and that 21 doesn't include Jon Rahm. The disparity between the two teams is probably as small as it's ever been and you've got the two alpha dogs coming-in off of impressive wins. I mean this really couldn't be setting-up any better. 

Here are the rosters with World Golf Ranks and the LIV guys slotted about where they would be if they hadn't sold-out:

Rory rediscovering his clutch
game in Ireland is not exactly
ideal for the home team. 

USA	EUROPE
Scottie Scheffler (1)	Rory McIlroy (2)
Russell Henley (3)	Jon Rahm (LIV)
Bryson DeChambeau (LIV)	Tommy Fleetwood (7)
Xander Schauffele (4)	Robert MacIntyre (9)
Justin Thomas (5)	Viktor Hovland (12)
J.J. Spaun (6)	Justin Rose (14)
Collin Morikawa (8)	Tyrrell Hatton (LIV)
Harris English (10)	Sepp Straka (15)
Ben Griffin (11)	Ludvig Aberg (16)
Cameron Young (20)	Shane Lowry (24)
Patrick Cantlay (22)	Matt Fitzpatrick (29)
Sam Burns (23)	Rasmus Hojgarrd (58)

If you looked at nothing but the USA roster and the fact that it includes seven of the top ten plus Bryson DeChambeau, it would be hard not to foresee a relatively easy win but this has to be about the strongest top to bottom roster Europe has ever fielded. When Aberg and Lowry are your 9-10 guys, it's hard to even conceive of your team as an underdog but that's what they are . . . slightly.   

Speaking of Aberg, you've got to like him at +1900 for top points scorer. He's going to get at least four matches and possibly five considering his fitness and a game that should be well-suited for Bethpage (as if it's not well-suited to every golf course in the world). It's either him or Tommy Fleetwood (+950) on the Euro side and Russell Henley (+1800) or Justin Thomas (+2800) for the Americans. 

You can also get Henley at +180 for top first-timer and he's by far the most likely of the five to play at least four matches, two of which will probably be alternate shot with Scheffler. Maybe parlay that with a Fleetwood top three at +320 and then treat the missus to Red Lobster on Monday. 

Edge: USA (minor)

EXPERIENCE

This category may be more critical to the outcome than talent, especially this year because the Ryder Cup doesn't give a shit that you won the Charles Schwab Challenge. No offense to Ben Griffin but beating Matti Schmid by a stroke in May and two-putting from 50 feet with the match on the line at Bethpage are barely the same sport. 

Europe returns eleven of the twelve players who dominated in Rome while Team USA features four rookies which is kind of a big deal because Luke Donald already knows he's got solid if not great chemistry with pairings of McIlroy/Fleetwood, McIlroy/Fitzpatrick, Aberg/Hovland and MacIntyre/Rose while Keegan Bradley has to figure-out who to pair with DeChambeau, how much to play the 2025 less effective version of Schauffele and which rookies will be best equipped to handle the intense heat of the first two days. (They've got no choice but to handle it on Sunday).

The pairing of Scheffler and Henley for foursomes (alternate shot) seems like a no-brainer and you probably want Scottie hitting the opening tee shot because the atmosphere is going to be insane but from there it's not so simple. I'd probably go Cantlay/Thomas, Burns/Morikawa and then maybe Griffin/Spaun with the message to "go out there and show them you belong." Would've been crazy nine months ago to think of J.J. Spaun playing Friday morning at the Ryder Cup but, with his putting and straight driving, he may be the best alternate shot player on the roster right now. 

Edge: Europe (significant)

CAPTAINS

This one really comes down to a matter of taste. Do you prefer Andy Reid or Jimmy Johnson? Keegan Bradley was picked as captain because he brings the fire but the fact is that Luke Donald is the only one of the two to win this thing and we know his players will compete for him. Meanwhile, Bradley may be under more pressure to win than any captain in history. If he pulls it off, they should absolutely bring him back to defend in Ireland but for now, the jury is out until Sunday.  

Edge: Europe (minor)

VENUE

That Long Island story took place about thirty-five years ago back when we ran on little more than Bud long necks and adrenaline. This weekend, however, those bridge jumpers and goombalados are going to be all jacked-up on Zyns, Adderall and jingoism. A few may even have some issues with immigrants and that's the environment the Europeans will find themselves in from the moment they step on the grounds. Their biggest risk may actually be getting too focused on shutting-up the crowd and forgetting to just play. They're certainly better men than me if they can pull that off.

Edge: USA (significant)

PREDICTION

It's shaping-up to be the epic battle we deserve after over a decade of duds but, in the end, the course, the frat boys and the goombalados are going to make the difference. 

USA - 15 . . . Europe - 13 

The FGR Week 3 NFL Picks

We've started a lot of posts over the last few years with something along the lines of "as the world continues to descend into chaos . . ." and at this point it's hard to tell whether: (a) this will just be an endless descent, (b) we'll pull out of it and start ascending away from chaos, or (c) we will eventually land in chaos but that would probably just look like a crazier version of (a). I'm kind of confident that we're never going to get to a full version of (c) because the one thing you can count on from Americans now is that they're too lazy and distracted to even go out and buy their own fast food much less start a civil war. Even if you could DoorDash a grenade, you'd still have to leave the house to throw it at someone so we've got that going for us.

(Note that I wrote that opening paragraph before my daughter spent a good part of Friday on active shooter lockdown in her college dorm so my attempt to be hyperbolic was almost immediately undermined by reality). 

Anyway, life goes on and nowhere is that more evident than with the NFL which is a nice annual reminder that we used to hate each other for more wholesome reasons. I actually miss the days when my friend Steve would kick giant Steeler fans in the back during the third quarter and I would spend the rest of the game imagining how painful it was going to be to have my head smashed into a stadium armrest. It was a simpler time.  

Wagering on early season NFL games is good fun but not recommended for the faint of heart and the prudent because we honestly have no idea what we're even looking at yet. You'd be better off betting on turtle races. They'd go faster and you wouldn't have to endure NFL announcers while watching them. 

Take for example the Indianapolis Colts. Just a couple weeks ago there was a website with a look remarkably similar to this one that called them out for their long-running quarterback ineptitude that has now led to Daniel Jones who of course is now 2-0 after either running or throwing for all five of the Colts' touchdowns. It's like he's channeling the ghost of who John Elway could have been in that uniform (still too soon? really?). 

We won't be doing full slates of games this year because one would be foolish to think that he knows how every game is going to turn out so instead we'll just focus on the ones where the spirit really moves us.  

Indianapolis by 4.5 over Tennessee: The Pick - Titans

With all of that being said about the Colts, we're picking against them. Mediocre NFL quarterbacks and teams tend to revert to the mean even against lesser opponents. Also, we picked the Titans to go over 5.5 wins this year so we're going to need them to get that first one soon to keep pace.    

Jacksonville by 1.5 over Houston: The Pick - Texans

I just don't see the Texans starting 0-3, especially against a Jags team that couldn't beat the Bengals despite the gift of not only no Joe Burrow for most of the game but also three Jake Browning interceptions. There aren't many reliable truths in the NFL but one of them is that, when the other team's quarterback goes out in the first half and they turn the ball over more than you do, you're supposed to win the game. Speaking of which, Trevor Lawrence is currently on pace for a TD/INT ratio of 34/26 which basically makes him a far less entertaining version of Jameis Winston.

L.A. Chargers by 2.5 over Denver: The Pick - Chargers

Taking Jim Harbaugh teams favored by less than 3 points at home feels like a good rule that could permeate these picks throughout the season. Interesting to note that he's the only coach in the AFC West who has not won a Super Bowl. I'm sure the typically nonchalant Harbaugh pays that fact no mind whatsoever.  

Email the Fantasy Golf Report here. 

Fantasy Golf: The Procore Championship Preview

The PGA Tour is dropping back in for a week with the Procore Championship which has historically been a quaint start to the fall season with a B- field gathering in Napa, California to sample some Pinots and start earning points for next year's playoffs. This year, however, we've got an A- field thanks to the participation of the entire U.S. Ryder Cup team less Xander Schauffele who's wife just had a baby and Bryson DeChambeau who wasn't invited. 

My hunch is that the non Ryder Cuppers are going to show-up with chips on their shoulders, especially Maverick McNealy and Max Greyserman who rightfully have designs on being part of the squad in 2027. I mean we all know that Scottie Scheffler is going to win but hey, I've put worse gambling theories out there . . . I think. 

Place	Player	Odds
Winner	Maverick McNealy	+2500
Top 5	Ben Griffin	+400
Top 10	Max Homa	+750
Top 10	Max Greyserman	+800
Top 20	Ben Silverman	+500

One and Done Pick: Maverick McNealy

Shout-out to the original Maverick James
Garner who was setting the standard for cool
long before Tom Cruise grabbed a joystick.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Max Greyserman

Sleeper Pick: Ben Silverman

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Russell Henley	$10,000
Patrick Cantlay	$9,500
Ben Griffin	$9,400
Maverick McNealy	$9,000
Max Homa	$8,600
Max Greyserman	$8,300
Keith Mitchell	$7,700
Tom Kim	$7,200
Tom Hoge	$7,100
Ben Silverman	$6,800

Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.

The FGR's NFL Power Rankings - Over/Under Extravaganza

Back in the FGR glory days, I used to write somewhat extensively about the NFL as a way to stay in shape during golf's offseason. This year, however, I am writing in an effort to forget what was an eight month long multi car pile-up of bad golf picks. Theoretically, these NFL over/under picks will have to be an improvement because the alternative is almost impossible. (Interesting time to tempt fate).  

  

Every time I fall into this power rankings trap it's because I forget that you have to come-up with thirty-two ideas which is a lot for me as evidenced by the fact that I casually started this tome about two weeks ago. It seemed like a good idea (at the time) to run through each team and at least identify their best fantasy player before walking into a draft barely knowing the starting quarterbacks for half the league. (Just thought I should explain why that useless information has been incorporated).  

I've let Vegas do most of the heavy-lifting here by ranking teams based on over/under win totals. One thing this effort did reveal is that the NFL's reputation for parity has become something of a myth. Teams in the top 8 have accounted for eleven of the last twelve Super Bowl participants while teams ranked 24-32 have been blowing through coaches and quarterbacks like I've been blowing through episodes of The Gilded Age. Seriously, it's the American Downton Abbey on steroids. Get involved.

Here we go.

"Hmmm 4th and 7 in the third quarter
 . . . feels like another flea flicker."

32. Cleveland Browns 

Win Total: 4.5 (Under)

Best Fantasy Player: Jerry Jeudy

The QB depth chart got a bit clearer with the trading of Kenny Pickett and it now looks like Joe Flacco will begin his 18th season as the starter with Dillon Gabriel and Shadeur Sanders battling for the inevitable call by week five. If I'm Kevin Stefanski, I'm going full Peter from Office Space at this point.     

31. New Orleans Saints

Win Total: 5.5 (Under)

Best Fantasy Player: Alvin Kamara

With Spencer Rattler, the Saints enter 2025 with not only the worst starting quarterback in the league but maybe the worst opening day starting quarterback in the history of the NFL. I saw one draft board that had all four Cleveland quarterbacks ranked ahead of him. At least that's now down to three after the Pickett trade which apparently sent shockwaves through the bottom of these rankings considering that's the second time we've mentioned it. Rattler's backup is some guy named Tyler Shough who has the curse of a name that will look far more at home above a Mazda dealership than it will on an NFL jersey. 

30. New York Giants

Win Total: 5.5 (Under)

Best Fantasy Player: Malik Nabors

Russell Wilson's 2024 numbers look pretty respectable with 16 TD's and only 5 INT's but he was sacked three times per game while playing for a run-first team with a dink and dunk passing game. Now he's with his third team in three years playing under Brian Daboll who gained a reputation for being a quarterback guru after "developing" Josh Allen. Under his more recent guidance, Giants quarterbacks have thrown for 30 TD's and 25 INT's the last two seasons. That's not very good guruing.   

29. Tennessee Titans 

Win Total: 5.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: Calvin Ridley

Cam Ward will be the starter by default as Will Levis is out for the year and frankly Ward can't be any worse than the dreck the Titans have been trotting out there the last three years during which they've gone 16-35 while playing in the NFL's version of the Tri-County Soccer League's U8 Bronze Division. Assuming Ward can play at all, the weak competition should yield at least six wins.  

28. New York Jets

Win Total: 5.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: Garrett Wilson 

I've relished taking shots at the Jets during this recent marathon run of futility because their fans are frankly insufferable but I don't think they belong in this 5.5 win crew. They're playing in the AFC's second weakest division and Justin Fields has the legitimate potential to be a poor man's Lamar Jackson. If he can find some chemistry with Garrett Wilson (which even Aaron Rodgers found), they could be a top half of the league offense.  

27. Carolina Panthers

Win Total: 6.5 (Under)

Best Fantasy Player: Chuba Hubbard 

We're entering year three of the Bryce Young era and, more importantly, year seven of the David Tepper ownership era which has produced seven consecutive losing seasons (seems not coincidental). The Panthers have gone 36-80 since the hands-on Tepper began trying to wrestle the worst owner title away from Jimmy Haslam. The DeSean Watson contract makes that all but impossible, however, Tepper has bolstered his case by being a complete ass hat and remains a worthy contender. 

26. Las Vegas Raiders

Win Total: 6.5 (Under)

Best Fantasy Player: Brock Bowers 

No we didn't forget about you Mark Davis and your nine different coaches since 2011 with a combined record of 91-137. There are signs of promise this year, however, with the competent duo of Pete Carroll and Geno Smith taking over and Brock Bowers appearing ready to take the uncoverable tight end mantle from Travis Kelce. The problem is that there are three double digit win teams in the AFC West . . . and they ain't one of them. 

25. Indianapolis Colts

Win Total: 7.5 (Under)

Best Fantasy Player: Jonathan Taylor

After two years of head-scratching over why the quarterback who only completed 54.7% of his passes against college defenses could only complete 50.6% of his passes against professional defenses, the Colts have apparently given-up on Anthony Richardson. Since Andrew Luck's retirement in 2018, the Colts have started games with the following under center: 

• The carcasses of Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan and Nick Foles (30 games); 
• The lost soul of Carson Wentz (17 games); 
• The backup band of Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew and Brian Hoyer (29 games); 
• The ageless wonder Joe Flacco (6 games); and 
• Some guy named Sam Ehilnger who I'm not sure is real (3 games). 

It's no wonder that Daniel Jones looked at that situation and thought "Honey I'm home!" 

24. Atlanta Falcons

Win Total: 7.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: Bijan Robinson

Hey look it's another NFC South team with clownish ownership coming-off seven consecutive losing seasons and they've got a backup quarterback who's going to count $40M against their cap this season. With all that being said, someone in this division besides the Bucs will have to sniff .500 and, even with all of their buffoonery, the Falcons appear to be the logical choice. 

"We will dig and set with a sense of purpose
this year. That I can damn well promise you."

23. Jacksonville Jaguars

Win Total: 7.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: Brian Thomas, Jr. 

The Trevor Lawrence era was supposed to start better than 25-43 and, in an effort to right the ship, the Jags have brought in first time head coach Liam Coen who at least has the look of a coach. It’s a middle school volleyball coach but at least he has the look. 

22. Miami Dolphins

Win Total: 7.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: De'von Achane

The eccentric Mike McDaniel enters his fourth season squarely on the "hot seat" despite a 28-23 record and two trips to the playoffs. Those kind of results would get you a parade in Cleveland and maybe even a key to the city. Then again, Cleveland hands-out a lot of keys to the city. It's like they've got hundreds of them on a janitor ring. I'll just leave that there.

21. New England Patriots 

Win Total: 8.5 (Under)

Best Fantasy Player: TreyVeyon Henderson 

I always thought the inevitable downfall of the Patriots would be more satisfying. I guess we'll just have to settle for enjoying it vicariously through the Tar Heels. The fact that UNC may not be favored in a game after they play Richmond on September 13th has to be one of college football's most satisfying subplots.  

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

Win Total: 8.5 (Under)

Best Fantasy Player: DK Metcalf

As a Ravens fan and a well-documented Aaron Rodgers hater, I'm looking forward to this potential debacle in Pittsburgh with great anticipation. It's already produced one of the year's more epic quotes when Terry Bradshaw was asked what he thought of Rodgers being a Steeler and he responded, "no, man, that guy needs to stay in California, go somewhere and chew on bark and whisper to the gods out there." Now it looks like he'll be whispering to the turf at Heinz Field. 

19. Arizona Cardinals

Win Total: 8.5 (Under)

Best Fantasy Player: Trey McBride

The jury remains out on Kyler Murray who has posted solid stats since 2019 but enters 2025 with a record of 36-45-1. Head coach Jonathan Gannon improved from 4-13 to 8-9 last year which was his first with a healthy Murray for seventeen games. They should theoretically improve again but (a) they're in a pretty tough division, and (b) they're still the Cardinals. 

18. Minnesota Vikings

Win Total: 8.5 (Under)

Best Fantasy Player: Justin Jefferson

Nothing screams 2025 NFL quite like a team going 14-3 with a generational talent at wide receiver and then intentionally deciding to start the following season with a rookie quarterback. And speaking of screaming . . . and Vikings . . . "want your cucumber bruised?" 

17. Seattle Seahawks

Win Total: 8.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: Jaxon Smith-NjiGba

The Seahawks are flying way under the radar (see what I did there?) with no one you've ever heard of at running back or wide receiver. They signed Sam Darnold to a very conservative contract by today's standards because most expect him to be the turd in the punchbowl who led the Vikings to a total of 18 points in the two games that mattered most last year. With that being said, they'll probably be the team that goes +23 on turnovers and wins 11 games. 

"I'm telling you Monty, this Schottenheimer guy
had the Browns one step away from the Super
Bowl and I think he's going to get us there."

16. Dallas Cowboys

Win Total: 8.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: CeeDee Lamb

It's crazy to think that a team as high profile and with such a pedigree as the Dallas Cowboys would hire a guy with no previous head coaching experience at any level. Especially one who has previously been turned down by at least three other teams. Wait until Jerry realizes it's not that "Schottenheimer."     

15. Chicago Bears

Win Total: 8.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: D.J. Moore

The Bears are a trendy playoff pick and I'll bite on them getting to at least nine wins. I think there's a "barely/bearly" joke in there somewhere but I've already made myself wince enough this week.

14. Houston Texans

Win Total: 9.5 (Under)

Best Fantasy Player: Nico Collins

I've gone back and forth on the Texans because they feel like 9-8 but good god that division is so bad so there's no reason they shouldn't get to double digits. On the other hand, they've got eight games against the NFC and AFC West along with probable losses to the Ravens and Bills so that right there is potentially 3-7. Throw-in a split against one of the division teams and you get 9-8. Please remind me how much sense this made when they're 12-4 and getting ready to blowout the Colts in Week 17. 

13. Washington Commanders

Win Total: 9.5 (Under)

Best Fantasy Player: Jayden Daniels

This feels like a minor correction getting ready to happen. The league has a way of figuring-out even the best second year quarterbacks and the NFC East is really up against it with out of division matchups against the NFC North and AFC West. Also, I've hated the Washington [insert latest stupid name] for longer than I've hated the Steelers so please factor that into your analysis of my analysis. 

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Win Total: 9.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: Bucky Irving 

As the saying goes, in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man can still find at least ten wins. In this metaphor, the NFC South is the land of the blind, the Bucs are . . . oh you get the point. 

11. Green Bay Packers

Win Total: 9.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: Josh Jacobs

The Packers seemed to take a step forward with Jordan Love last year but a closer look reveals that they really didn't beat anybody and they went 0-6 against the Eagles, Lions and Vikings. However, they still went 11-1 against everyone else and now they have Micah Parsons. That should be enough to win at least 10. 

10: Los Angeles Chargers

Win Total: 9.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: Ladd McConkey

There is some concern that their most feared offensive threat is a crafty possession receiver but this prediction is based more on the anticipated year two of the Harbaugh effect which turned a 5-12 team into and 11-6 team in year one. It will all meltdown by year five if he's even still there but right now we're in the sweet spot.  

9. Denver Broncos

Win Total: 9.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: Courtland Sutton

Much the same could be said about the Broncos. Bo Nix exceeded expectations last season completing 66% of his passes with 29 TD's against only 12 INT's. No reason to think that won't improve under the guidance of Sean Payton who mysteriously doesn't get questioned anymore about running Russell Wilson out of town. Huh. 

8. Los Angeles Rams

Win Total: 9.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: Puka Nacua

The Rams started 1-4 last year before closing 9-3 and then adding a playoff win. It was the first strong sign that they were emerging from their post Super Bowl/Aaron Donald fog. Kind of a testament to the greatness of Donald that the retirement of one player could cause such a dramatic hangover. So he has that in common with two and half bottles of Sauvignon Blanc.   

7. Cincinnati Bengals 

Win Total: 9.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: Ja'Marr Chase 

The Bengals started last season 4-8 and still managed to win nine games thanks to a five game winning streak to close the season. We expect to see more of that late season team in 2025 than the one that gave-up about a thousand points through the first twelve. In the old days when things were fun and clever, some PR person would've had the idea of putting their offensive stars on a billboard wearing three-piece suits with the line, "The Law Firm of Burrow, Higgins and Chase . . . The Best Defense is a Good Offense." Hello? Is this thing on? 

6. San Francisco 49ers

Win Total: 10.5 (Under)

Best Fantasy Player: Christian McCaffrey

Brock Purdy just signed a $265,000,000 contract with $182,550,000 guaranteed over the next five years. Seems excessive in general but especially for a non-imposing quarterback who is pretty good at everything but not particularly great at anything. Steady is nice but you don't pay Mercedes money for a Honda just because your last one made it over 200,000 miles on twenty-five Jiffy Lube oil changes. JFC man it's still just a damn Honda. 

5. Detroit Lions

Win Total: 10.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: Jahmyr Gibbs

We've certainly come a long way from this iconic tweet as Dan Campbell has emerged as one of the best coaches in the league. Despite the flop against the Commanders in the playoffs, this is still the clear-cut second best team in the NFC and, with the Vikings taking a step back, they should at least be good for twelve wins.  

4. Kansas City Chiefs

Win Total: 11.5 (Under)

Best Fantasy Player: Xavier Worthy

After being completely pantsed by the Eagles in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs now have to face ten 2024 playoff teams including non-division games against the Bills, Ravens, Lions, Eagles and Commanders. Of course they're still the NFL's version of a little league team who's coach is also the commissioner so four of those five games are at home but still.  

3. Baltimore Ravens

Win Total: 11.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: Derrick Henry

The Ravens would appear to be good at everything this year with a dynamic offense, a solid defense and a kicker more into kicking than getting handsy. However, that's really been the case for the better part of the last six seasons during which they've gone 68-32 (including an 8-9 record in 2021 when Lamar Jackson missed five games). Look for them to go 12-5 with a home loss to either the Browns or Jets which costs them home field in the AFC Championship game. 

2. Buffalo Bills

Win Total: 11.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: Josh Allen

The burning question this year is whether the Bills or Ravens will be good enough to overcome the Chiefs' "institutional advantage" and we're thinking they will and it will start with them earning the playoff homefield edge. Maybe the officials will be a bit more inclined to call it down the middle if they're doing it in front of the Buffalo mafia or whatever far more terrifying thing you want to call the Baltimore crowd. (Seriously, our fans are terrifying). 

1. Philadelphia Eagles

Win Total: 11.5 (Over)

Best Fantasy Player: Saquon Barkley

It's easy to forget that the Eagles were 2-2 going into their bye last year before winning sixteen of their next seventeen games. We're still about a year away from their players dating pop stars so let's just enjoy it while we can.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.