First the good news. Last week I recommended the winner (Bubba Watson) and guys who finished tied for 6th (Phil Mickelson) and tied for 9th (Martin Laird). The bad news? Other than Dustin Johnson who finished tied for 16th thereby effectively wasting my most valuable one and done pick, the only other players in my top ten who made the cut were Paul Casey (T49), Thomas Pieters (T68) and Sang-Moon Bae (75th). Ollie Schnieds, Keegan Bradley and Cameron Tringale are all dead to me (and upon reading that uninspiring trifecta of names, I feel that I need to shoulder some of the blame for my own failure).
Before we get to this week's picks, let's check-in on my personal losing streak. Obviously we have the aforementioned DJ pick fiasco on the heels of missed cuts by previous picks Patrick Reed and Hideki Matsuyama. Last Thursday was a beautiful day in Baltimore so I played golf and lost ten bucks. Then, in my final pick-up hoops game on Saturday morning, I had two open looks at a game winning 3-pointer, missed them both and then almost got a hand in the face of my man as HE hit the game winning 3-pointer. I did coach my son's futsal* team to an undefeated season on Sunday but sports you have to explain to your audience in a footnote don't count.
Back to the business at hand. Good luck picking this week as no player in recent memory has demonstrated a run of success longer that two years at the Honda Classic. (I'm defining "success" as top 25 or better because it suits my narrative). The closest you'll find among any players you'd pick to actually win this week are Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia so I'm going with Sergio because I already picked (wasted) Rickie at the Sentry TOC. You're only other viable options might be Justin Thomas or Gary Woodland unless you want to take a flyer on Tommy Fleetwood as the random British guy who wins in Florida every couple of years. I wouldn't go near Rory this week. He's still out of sync.
As for value options you have Daniel Berger who the FGR has been known to malign on occasion but the kid can play and he at least showed an affinity for this dubious track a few years ago. If you want a more consistent option in that price range, check-out Jason Dufner who pouted his way to couple of top 20's in 2015 and 2017. For my money, however, the real deals to be had are the $7,300 guys - Ryan Palmer, Graeme McDowell and Patton Kizzire. Not sure why anyone would think those three warrant a huge discount compared to overvalued guys like Brandt Snedeker and Brian Harman but I'll take it (and I just effectively handed the tournament to Harman . . . you're welcome Brian).
Per the new FGR formula, here's a list of every player I deem worth consideration this week followed by my top ten values picks. It hasn't worked yet but remember what your stock broker always tells you. Past failure is no indication of future success . . . or something like that.
The One and Done Pick: Sergio Garcia
The Sleeper Pick: Billy Horschel
The Top Ten DraftKings Values
Footnote
* Futsal is five on five soccer played with a smaller harder ball on a basketball court. It is quite simply the greatest game ever invented. I bullshit you negative.
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
 |
| That moment when you realize you got there a step too late. |
Back to the business at hand. Good luck picking this week as no player in recent memory has demonstrated a run of success longer that two years at the Honda Classic. (I'm defining "success" as top 25 or better because it suits my narrative). The closest you'll find among any players you'd pick to actually win this week are Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia so I'm going with Sergio because I already picked (wasted) Rickie at the Sentry TOC. You're only other viable options might be Justin Thomas or Gary Woodland unless you want to take a flyer on Tommy Fleetwood as the random British guy who wins in Florida every couple of years. I wouldn't go near Rory this week. He's still out of sync.
As for value options you have Daniel Berger who the FGR has been known to malign on occasion but the kid can play and he at least showed an affinity for this dubious track a few years ago. If you want a more consistent option in that price range, check-out Jason Dufner who pouted his way to couple of top 20's in 2015 and 2017. For my money, however, the real deals to be had are the $7,300 guys - Ryan Palmer, Graeme McDowell and Patton Kizzire. Not sure why anyone would think those three warrant a huge discount compared to overvalued guys like Brandt Snedeker and Brian Harman but I'll take it (and I just effectively handed the tournament to Harman . . . you're welcome Brian).
Per the new FGR formula, here's a list of every player I deem worth consideration this week followed by my top ten values picks. It hasn't worked yet but remember what your stock broker always tells you. Past failure is no indication of future success . . . or something like that.
THE HONDA CLASSIC RECIPE FOR DISASTER CHART
(a/k/a THE FGR'S PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH)
DK Price
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
2014
|
2013
|
|
Rickie Fowler
|
$11,700
|
1st
|
T6
|
T41
|
T24
|
T13
|
Sergio Garcia
|
$10,500
|
T14
|
2nd
|
T31
|
T8
|
DNP
|
Justin Thomas
|
$11,300
|
M/C
|
T3
|
M/C
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Daniel Berger
|
$8,800
|
M/C
|
M/C
|
2nd
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
G. McDowell
|
$7,300
|
T14
|
5th
|
M/C
|
T46
|
T9
|
R. Cabrera-Bello
|
$8,100
|
T37
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Gary Woodland
|
$9,700
|
T2
|
T61
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T68
|
Patton Kizzire
|
$7,300
|
T66
|
T26
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Rory McIlroy
|
$11,500
|
DNP
|
M/C
|
M/C
|
T2
|
W/D
|
T. Fleetwood
|
$9,400
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Patrick Reed
|
$9,100
|
DNP
|
M/C
|
T7
|
T24
|
T58
|
Jason Dufner
|
$8,600
|
T14
|
T61
|
T17
|
DNP
|
T51
|
Ryan Palmer
|
$7,300
|
T37
|
T26
|
T25
|
T2
|
T41
|
Martin Kaymer
|
$8,000
|
T4
|
M/C
|
T44
|
M/C
|
T51
|
Adam Scott
|
$7,700
|
T14
|
1st
|
DNP
|
T12
|
DNP
|
Billy Horschel
|
$7,100
|
T4
|
T8
|
M/C
|
M/C
|
T46
|
Russell Knox
|
$9,000
|
M/C
|
T26
|
T3
|
T2
|
DNP
|
Ian Poulter
|
$7,200
|
T43
|
T43
|
T3
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
John Huh
|
$7,100
|
M/C
|
T14
|
T17
|
DNP
|
M/C
|
Sean O'Hair
|
$6,800
|
T11
|
T14
|
T25
|
M/C
|
T18
|
Tyrell Hatton
|
$9,500
|
T4
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Brandt Snedeker
|
$8,700
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Brian Harman
|
$8,900
|
T48
|
M/C
|
T11
|
T58
|
M/C
|
Bud Cauley
|
$7,800
|
T27
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
M/C
|
L. Oosthuizen
|
$7,900
|
T21
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
M/C
|
Alex Noren
|
$10,100
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
M/C
|
Andrew Wise
|
$7,200
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jhonny Vegas
|
$7,400
|
T4
|
DNP
|
M/C
|
T12
|
DNP
|
Scott Stallings
|
$8,000
|
T21
|
M/C
|
T63
|
DNP
|
T29
|
Russell Henley
|
$7,700
|
T43
|
M/C
|
T44
|
1st
|
T13
|
 |
| Ignore all the haters Fergie. I thought you were just great. |
The Sleeper Pick: Billy Horschel
The Top Ten DraftKings Values
Rickie Fowler
|
$11,700
|
Sergio Garcia
|
$10,500
|
T. Fleetwood
|
$9,400
|
Daniel Berger
|
$8,800
|
Jason Dufner
|
$8,600
|
Patton Kizzire
|
$7,300
|
Ryan Palmer
|
$7,300
|
G. McDowell
|
$7,300
|
Billy Horschel
|
$7,100
|
Sean O'Hair
|
$6,800
|
Footnote
* Futsal is five on five soccer played with a smaller harder ball on a basketball court. It is quite simply the greatest game ever invented. I bullshit you negative.
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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