The FGR Week 11 NFL Picks

Have you ever had one of those nights where you go out late and it seems like you spend the last two hours acting and reenacting the TommyDeVito/Billy Batts bar scene from Goodfellas and then the next thing you know, you're buying rounds to smooth things over to avoid getting pistol-whipped and stuffed in a trunk? (No, that's just you dude). Well whatever I did or didn't do on Friday evening has put me a bit behind on my writing obligations so I never got around to fully analyzing all of this week's games and by "all" I of course mean "any." I do, however, feel a big week looming on the horizon so stay with me.

"Case Keenum and the Texans
v. Matthew McGloin and the
Raiders . . . I don't get it."

The other problem (here come the excuses) is that the NFL has become a bastion of mediocrity and, like a toy building that turns into a robot, what's fun about writing about that? Coming into this week, there were 22 teams with records between 6-3 and 3-7 and it's becoming increasingly difficult to watch them play much less differentiate between them for the purpose of predicting a winner. The slate of 1:00 games today is a brutal potpourri of bad quarterbacks and suspect coaches which is going to make watching the first three hours of Redzone feel like work . . . Bucs/Falcons, Bills/Jets, Bengals/Browns, Chargers/Dolphins . . . ewww.

And the ugliest game of the day will probably be the Ravens/Bears where we'll get to see a team that looks like it's been running in a mud pit all season actually try to run in a mud pit* as Soldier Field may be a quagmire today. The Ravens will be playing against one of the eight teams starting a quarterback that they would have preferred to see on the sideline all season and that doesn't include all of the teams that will have started three different quarterbacks this year by the time the day is done (Browns, Packers, Bills, Vikings and Raiders). People are rightfully scoffing at Joe Flacco's $20M per year contract in light of his 77.3 quarterback rating but the fact is that there are eight teams that would trade a first round pick for him in a heartbeat. The Ravens would never consider it, however, because Ozzie Newsome spent the better part of ten years trapped in the Oort cloud** of awful quarterbacking and he's never going back.

On to this week's picks. If you haven't noticed, I've been delivering a pretty steady diet of winning weeks. You're welcome.

At Tampa Bay Pick 'em against Atlanta: The Pick - Bucs

At Buffalo by 1 over the N.Y. Jets: The Pick - Bills

Detroit by 3 at Pittsburgh: The Pick - Steelers+

At Philadelphia by 3.5 over Washington: The Pick - Redskins

San Diego by 1 at Miami: The Pick - Chargers+

At least Cam Newton and the Pantherrettes are giving
us something worth watching on Monday night.

At Chicago by 3 over Baltimore: The Pick - Ravens

At Cincinnati by 5.5 over Cleveland: The Pick - Bengals

At Houston by 6.5 over Oakland: The Pick - Texans

Arizona by 6.5 at Jacksonville: The Pick - Cardinals+

At Denver by 8 over Kansas City: The Pick - Broncos

At Seattle by 12.5 over Minnesota: The Pick - Seahawks+

At New Orleans by 2.5 over San Francisco: The Pick - Saints

At N.Y. Giants by 4 over Green Bay: The Pick - Giants+

At Carolina by 2.5 over New England: The Pick - Patriots

Last Week's Record: 9-5 . . . Season Record: 80-65-1

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Endnotes

I love this class.

* Much to the chagrin of fantasy football owners who didn't get the memo to avoid running backs who've had over 1,700 touches in their first five years (regular season and playoffs combined), Ray Rice is averaging 2.5 yards per carry this season. On one play in overtime last week, he had one defender to beat in the open field and, after doing his trademark stutter step, he ran straight into the guy who just knocked his legs out from under him. Check-out this cinematic reenactment of the play.

** A hypothesized spherical cloud of predominantly icy planetesimals that is about a light year from the Sun . . . but you knew that already.

+Picks of the Week