Fantasy Golf: The Farmers Insurance Open Preview

Well it's official. There will be no golf in Maryland this year after a storm that has buried us under almost as much ice and snow as Dennis Quaid walked through in The Day After Tomorrow on his way from Washington D.C. to New York City to rescue his son played by Jake Gyllenhaal. The implausibility of that 225 mile journey on foot was balanced-out by the utter plausibility of a dad risking his life to visit his college student son while said son took advantage of the apocalyptic conditions by trying to get laid in the public library. I could make a joke about my son going to school in Memphis but that would be untoward. 

Seriously, this looks bad for those of us who will play in just about anything and count on at least a few nines throughout the winter to get us to the other side of Maryland's cold gray hell. The highest temperature we're looking at over the next ten days is 35 degrees with an average in the high 20's so this fucking popsicle ain't melting anytime soon and the walls are already closing in. 

After nearly three days of being snowbound I got into a series of arguments with my brand new unhit Titleist GT3 driver which has been idling in the corner for two weeks. At first it was a friendly debate about loft settings and launch angles but then it got personal when my Callaway Epic tried to chime-in and the Titleist said "save it for your new friends at Second Swing gramps." They were on the verge of coming to blows before I made the empty threat of taking them to a public driving range and hitting Pinnacles. Cooler heads quickly prevailed.      

GOLF ANALYSIS

We're not going to spend too much time relishing last week's Ryan Gerard pick that would've been a solo second if he hadn't dumped his tee shot in the water on 17 which literally made me almost bite my phone in half. Alas, a T2 is nothing to sneeze at, especially when it brings that fleeting glow of satisfaction from seeing your name at the top of the standings in mid January.  

It's kind of a lackluster line-up by Torrey Pines standards this week with only three of the top ten in the world and nine of the top twenty. With that premium on talent and a course that 15-20 players have a distinct fondness for, we should be able to find some value. I counted sixteen players in this year's field with at least two previous top tens so clearly a course for particular horses (proving that I do actually put some thought into this crap).   

We're going with Patrick Cantlay on the high end by process of elimination because Xander Schauffele hasn't teed it up since October and Ludvig Aberg withdrew last week. Ludvig would otherwise be a lock but he's starting to give-off Jason Day fragility vibes. And speaking of Day, he's playing great and has two wins here along with three other top fives so definitely make him part of your plans but remember that his health often bristles at the first sign of prosperity. You've been warned.  

Taylor Pendrith and Jake Knapp are vying for the bomber role mysteriously vacated by Tony Finau who's currently in a worse slump than the United States Constitution. I was looking for a reason to pick him based on his track record and $7,000 price tag but the big cat hasn't broken the top forty since the U.S. Open and may need to intentionally dislocate his ankle to shake things up.

We had a spot in the mid-range for Maverick McNealy but then noticed that past champion Max Homa has rediscovered a pulse at which point it became an unfair popularity contest. Same goes for Sahith Theegala and everyone we considered him against. 

As for the pick of the week, it feels like Hideki Matsuyama is due for a win. He has yet to light it up at Torrey but he hasn't missed the cut since 2016. He also hasn't taken down a full field event since the 2024 Genesis Invitational but he's been lurking. By the way, he's only 33 years old which I would've missed by at least five years so he's got a lot of prime still in him (says the guy who tells himself that every year despite being born before the VCR was invented . . . JFC I'm literally older than technology my kids wouldn't recognize [gulps wine]).  

Place	Player	Odds
Winner	Hideki Matsuyama	+2900
Top 5	Jason Day	+580
Top 10	Taylor Pendrith	+340
Top 10	Sahith Theegala	+670
Top 20	Sami Valimaki	+360

One and Done Pick: Hideki Matsuyama

I mean come on that slouch
can only be achieved by a 
disgruntled 41 year old right?

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jason Day 

Sleeper Pick: Sami Valimaki

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Patrick Cantlay	$10,100
Jason Day	$9,600
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,300
Taylor Pendrith	$8,700
Max Homa	$8,300
Jake Knapp	$8,200
Sam Stevens	$7,800
Sahith Theegala	$7,400
Lee Hodges	$7,100
Sami Valimaki	$6,800

This week's chart honors the first human I've interacted with in over seventy-two hours. It wasn't very deep or meaningful but, unlike the house plants I've been talking to, at least he kind of made eye contact. 

THE GRILL GUY AT HABIT BURGER

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART 

Not reflected on the chart are the fact that Justin Rose went T4, T8, 1st from 2017-2019 and Keegan Bradley had back-to-back top fives in 2017 and 2018. If you're torn between them, go with the guy who didn't blow the Ryder Cup.  

	DK Price	2025(2)	2025	2024	2023	2022
Xander Schauffele	$10,500	DNP	DNP	T9	T13	T34
Ludvig Aberg	$10,400	1st	T42	T9	DNP	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$10,100	T5	DNP	T56	DNP	DNP
Cameron Young	$10,000	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	T20
Jason Day	$9,600	T50	T32	MC	T7	T3
Si Woo Kim	$9,500	T24	MC	DNP	T25	T11
J.J. Spaun	$9,400	T34	T15	MC	MC	T34
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,300	T13	T32	T13	T9	T30
Keegan Bradley	$9,200	T34	T15	T43	2nd	T65
Harris English	$9,100	T24	1st	T64	MC	DNP
Chris Gotterup	$9,000	DNP	T25	T50	DNP	DNP
Maverick McNealy	$8,900	2nd	T52	T37	T31	T30
Will Zalatoris	$8,800	T24	DNP	T13	MC	2nd
Taylor Pendrith	$8,700	T50	T7	T9	T60	T16
Ryan Gerard	$8,600	DNP	T15	DNP	DNP	DNP
Wyndham Clark	$8,500	T31	DNP	DNP	T37	T56
Alex Noren	$8,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	T39
Max Homa	$8,300	MC	W/D	T13	1st	MC
Jake Knapp	$8,200	T17	T32	T3	DNP	DNP
Adam Scott	$8,100	T37	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brooks Koepka	$8,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Rasmus Hojgarrd	$7,900	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sam Stevens	$7,800	T31	2nd	T43	T13	DNP
Matt McCarty	$7,800	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	MC
Aaron Rai	$7,700	T37	MC	T33	52nd	T6
Marco Penge	$7,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Garrick Higgo	$7,600	DNP	T42	MC	T53	DNP
M. Thorbjornsen	$7,600	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Denny McCarthy	$7,500	T5	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Rose	$7,500	MC	MC	T56	T18	T6
Nicolai Hojgaard	$7,500	DNP	DNP	2nd	DNP	DNP
Sahith Theegala	$7,400	T17	T52	T64	T4	T25
Max Greyserman	$7,400	T24	T48	MC	DNP	DNP
Akshay Bhatia	$7,400	T9	DNP	T13	DNP	DNP
Pierceson Coody	$7,400	DNP	MC	MC	DNP	T25
R. Neergaard	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	T70
C. Bezuidenhout	$7,300	T39	DNP	MC	DNP	T46
Kevin Yu	$7,300	T17	MC	T6	T44	MC
Thor Olesen	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	T39
Hao-Tong Li	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	MC
Keith Mitchell	$7,300	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP	MC
Rico Hoey	$7,300	DNP	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Kristoffer Reitan	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Davis Thompson	$7,200	T13	DNP	MC	T69	DNP
Andrew Novak	$7,200	T13	3rd	MC	T69	T70
Michael Kim	$7,200	T13	MC	T37	T44	DNP
Patrick Rodgers	$7,200	T3	T56	T9	MC	T62
Eric Cole	$7,200	MC	T68	MC	MC	DNP
Jordan Smith	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Doug Ghim	$7,200	DNP	MC	T13	MC	T34
Vince Whaley	$7,200	DNP	T32	MC	DNP	DNP
Billy Horschel	$7,100	MC	DNP	MC	DNP	T11
Alex Smalley	$7,100	DNP	MC	MC	T37	T56
Jesper Svensson	$7,100	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
John Parry	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Lee Hodges	$7,100	DNP	T9	MC	MC	MC
Mac Meissner	$7,100	DNP	T52	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max McGreevy	$7,100	DNP	W/D	DNP	DNP	MC
Tony Finau	$7,000	T5	MC	T6	T9	MC
Seamus Power	$7,000	T24	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Emiliano Grillo	$7,000	DNP	W/D	T20	T44	MC
Stephan Jaeger	$6,900	T44	MC	T3	T53	MC
Beau Hossler	$6,900	DNP	T15	T6	MC	MC
Taylor Moore	$6,900	DNP	T56	T70	T11	MC
Gary Woodland	$6,800	MC	DNP	MC	T62	T39
Tom Hoge	$6,800	54th	DNP	T56	DNP	MC
Mackenzie Hughes	$6,800	52nd	DNP	T64	DNP	MC
Tom Kim	$6,800	T44	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sami Valimaki	$6,800	DNP	T15	T43	DNP	DNP
Austin Eckroat	$6,700	MC	MC	T37	MC	MC
Matthieu Pavon	$6,700	T44	MC	1st	DNP	DNP
Andrew Putnam	$6,700	DNP	T32	DNP	DNP	DNP
Luke Clanton	$6,700	DNP	T15	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mark Hubbard	$6,600	MC	T68	T20	DNP	MC
Davis Riley	$6,500	DNP	MC	MC	MC	MC
Brandt Snedeker	$6,500	DNP	T32	T78	DNP	MC
Cam Davis	$6,200	MC	DNP	DNP	MC	T56
Adam Schenk	$6,200	DNP	T25	T25	T20	T56
Charley Hoffman	$6,100	DNP	T25	T56	MC	DNP
Kevin Streelman	$6,100	DNP	T15	W/D	T60	T39

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