Wednesday, September 2, 2015

The DraftKings Deutsche Bank Preview

Every week we live and we learn and sometimes we learn what we already knew but we forgot because we tend to get distracted by shiny objects like Brooks Koepka. There was just way too much free love flying his way last week and that should've raised red flags. No one gets over on the game of golf. Especially a relative newcomer on an unfamiliar course who suddenly finds himself a few good tournaments away from a monster payday. The fact that our justification for making him the top pick included a reference to a character named "Brooks" who killed himself should've been our first clue. We'll try to keep it a bit more positive this week.

The Barclays Results

1. Brooks Koepka - $9,700 (M/C)
"Stick to the fundamentals. Day, Stenson, Z.J. and
Furyk. That's how good fantasy rosters are built."
(Lou Mannheim? Really? Way to keep it positive).
2. Robert Streb - $7,900 (T39)
3. Dustin Johnson - $10,700 (T9)
4. Charley Hoffman - $7,000 (T62)
5. Russell Henley - $7,500 (T72)
6. Shawn Stefani - $6,200 (T39)
7. Charl Schwartzel - $8,200 (M/C)
8. Tony Finau - $7,300 (T16)
9. Zach Johnson - $8,100 (T4)
10. Jordan Spieth - $12,600 (M/C)
11. Jimmy Walker - $7,600 (T69)
12. Kevin Kisner - $6,900 (T20)
13. Jim Furyk - $8,800 (T11)
14. David Lingmerth - $7,800
15. Ryan Moore - $7,600 (M/C)
16. Ben Martin - $6,800 (T68)
17. Will Wilcox - $7,200 (M/C)
18. Brendan Steele - $7,100 (M/C)
19. Scott Piercy - $6,700 (T62)
20. Paul Casey - $8,700 (T39)


This week we head to a course with some historical data, most of which indicates that one of the favorites is going to take it down. Past winners include Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods (when he was good), Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott and Henrik Stenson two years ago. Runner-ups include Tiger (twice), Vijay, Jason Day and Louis Oosthuizen. From a DraftKings standpoint, that tells us that you've got to enter at least four line-ups with one being built around each of Day, McIlroy, Stenson and Jordan Spieth* who is going to be pissed about missing the cut last week which unbelievably but rightfully dropped his Vegas odds to third.** You probably want to throw DJ into a fifth line-up to be safe because you don't want to be left holding the bag if that lunkhead finally gets his head on straight. 


Here's who we like in Beantown (what a jackass nickname for a city which makes it completely appropriate in this case). 


THE DEUTSCHE BANK CHAMPIONSHIP TOP 20

1. Henrik Stenson - $10,500

Henrik's irons appear to be dialed-in again and that means mucho birdies, especially at a turkey shoot course like TPC Boston. He shot 22 under when he won this thing in 2013.


2. Kevin Kisner - $7,300

Kisner appears to have been devalued because he missed the cut at the British Open and the PGA but he's 13th in the FedEx Cup standings and almost all of those points have been accumulated since the first of his three 2nd place finishes in April. During that time, he also has two other top tens and a T12 at the U.S. Open. He will post at least one top five during the playoffs. I stake my worthless reputation on it.   


3. Chris Kirk - $7,100

I normally wouldn't go anywhere near a guy coming-off a broken hand but he says he's healthy, a claim backed-up by his 68 last Friday. You also have to factor-in that (a) he's the defending champ, (b) he won right before he got hurt and (c) you can get him for less than Harris "Wha'Happened" English this week.

4. Robert Streb - $8,000

I'm going to keep riding these next two horses until they pay or go bust. Let's just hope that happens before the freakin' McGladrey Classic.


5. Brooks Koepka - $8,700

Koepka had finished top ten in five of his last seven events before missing the cut last week. He probably should've skipped the Wyndham because now he's on track to play five weeks in a row but let's hope last weekend's mini vacation helped him recharge. If he was worth the #1 pick for $9,700 at the Barclays, then he's certainly worth the #5 for $8,700 at the Deutsche. (Way to use your crappy pick from last week to justify a potentially less crappy pick this week). 


6. Matt Kuchar - $8,500

Kuch has been playing better than you may have noticed with a T2 at the Scottish Open and T7's at the PGA and Canadian Open. The course this week is a perfect set-up for him and he's been alternating good results with bad so we're looking at his T39 last week as a positive.  


7. Jason Dufner - $7,600

The personal life BS has to be messing with his head which would explain him playing two to three good rounds per tournament and then failing to stick the landing. Last week he opened 66-68-69 before the inevitable 75. To me that says he's close and TPC Boston has been good to him unlike a few other people who shall remain nameless.


8. Zach Johnson - $9,300


He putted horribly last week and still finished tied for 4th. It appears we're watching a player hit one of those pre-40's primes as ZJ has five top tens in his last eight starts. His success at the TPC Boston has only been moderate but the way he's playing right now that shouldn't matter.

9. Jordan Spieth - $11,300

Because you have to build at least one line-up per week around him.

10. Luke Donald - $7,800

He's been solid since the Travelers including a T12 at the British Open. Back when he was one of the best players in the world (a/k/a "The Pre-McIlroysic Era"), he had a T2 and a T3 in Boston. (I'm not really buying Donald this high but I wanted to use that "Pre-McIlroysic Era" line so drop him to about 17th and bump Justin Thomas into this spot. Sorry but there's just nothing funny that I'm aware of about Justin Thomas . . . yet).

The Best of the Rest
You've got to hedge against DJ
getting his paws on and then
inevitably crushing the trophy.


Justin Thomas - $7,900

Jim Furyk - $9,000
Ian Poulter - $7,100
Brandt Snedeker - $8,400
Tony Finau - $7,700
Rory McIlroy - $11,200
Paul Casey - $8,300
Russell Henley - $7,800
Dustin Johnson - $10,800
Webb Simpson - $8,100

Footnote

* With the top players dominating the way they are right now, you almost have to enter a line-up with each of them. Last week I came out ahead by putting the right collection of schlubs around a Jason Day led team. The margin wasn't enough to start popping champagne (or even buy a bottle of champagne) but it was better than a sharp stick in the eye.

** Digest that one for a second and consider how loaded golf is right now when the guy who won two majors and came within a putt of making a playoff for a third can't get a top two spot. That'd be like Kevin Hart showing-up at a comedy club to do fifteen minutes and being told they'd get him on right after Amy Schumer and Anthony Jeselnik. (I've been listening to a lot of Comedy Central Radio lately).


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