Fantasy Golf: The Baycurrent Classic Preview

We decided to take some personal time last week in an effort to stem the tide of a pretty auspicious losing streak that included not only picking the U.S. to win the Ryder Cup and a 1-5 NFL record, but also two real live team golf playoff losses where my partners and I secured 5.5 out of our possible 6 points while our teammates went . . . ahem . . . full Englikawa which is my new name recommendation for the worst Ryder Cup pairing in history (it was either that or Morikish and Englikawa tested better with the 24-35 demographic). To quote the legendary Opal Fleener from Hoosiers, "the sun don't shine on the same dog's ass everyday, but, mister you ain't seen a ray of light since you got here."

Speaking of the Ryder Cup, I started writing a post-mortem but then I got to part 3 of Kevin Van Valkenburg's Three Final Thoughts on the 2025 Ryder Cup at Bethpage and bowed my head because I knew that I'd been beat. Nothing I could produce was going to top this assessment of the crowd:

If you’re a grown man and you spent an afternoon screaming horrible things at a professional athlete, trying to get under his skin by calling his wife a whore and hoping he (and she) will hear you, but you still wanted to be able to slither away before police arrive to kick you out, your parents and grandparents failed you. If Rory McIlroy walked into your living room on Sunday night, I am quite confident you would melt with embarrassment or turtle up in fear. You have become so desensitized by the internet and the fake life you live inside your phone that it would take years of therapy just to reset you to your factory settings. 

I will take a shot at the leadership because it would appear that the "plan" to the extent there was one was to have Bryson blast the opening tee shot to get the crowd fired-up and then just see what happens from there because putting Colin Morikawa who is 141st in strokes gained putting in 2025 and has one top ten over the last six months out for alternate shot made Zach Johnson look like a chess master by comparison. Someone described sending Morikawa and English out again on Saturday morning as "malpractice" which was spot-on because the medical equivalent would be doing a hip replacement on the wrong hip and then correcting it by replacing the wrong hip again.

Enough about all that. Hopefully three days of moderate to heavy drinking, gumbo and singing angsty teen anthems at a Natasha Bedingfield concert has cleansed the gambling palate so we can start fresh. 

GOLF ANALYSIS

This week we head to Japan for the Baycurrent Classic which is a curious name for a golf tournament in its first year with a new sponsor at a course they've never played before but maybe "classic" means something different in Japanese like how "bra" means "good" in Swedish. (That Seinfeld episode must have confused some people in Stockholm). 

We've got a pretty solid field with a few Ryder Cuppers including Xander Schauffele who finally showed some signs of life at Bethpage but this is a home game for Hideki Matsuyama and he takes that shit seriously so he's the pick. The rest are guys who have proven they like to play on the road including Michael Kim who recently won the French Open over a bunch of unsuspecting Euros and has moved-up to 38th in the world. Vive la Resistance!

We desperately looked for a way to recommend Sahith Theegala as the sleeper because we root for the guy and he just finally made a cut at the Procore Championship after missing five in a row. But that recent slump plus no top tens since 2024 means he has to settle for the bottom spot in the DraftKings top ten based on the hope that a change of scenery yields at least a paycheck. 

Place	Player	Odds
Winner	Hideki Matsuyama	+1800
Top 5	Rasmus Hojgaard	+400
Top 10	Michael Kim	+280
Top 10	Tom Kim	+400
Top 20	Matti Schmid	+180

One and Done Pick: Hideki Matsuyama

Nothing runs through Yokohama
without Hideki getting a taste.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Rasmus Hojgaard

Sleeper Pick: Matti Schmid

DraftKings Top Ten Values 

Hideki Matsuyama	$10,400
Alex Noren	$9,800
Michael Kim	$9,300
Rasmus Hojgaard	$9,200
C. Bezuidenhout	$8,400
Sungjae Im	$8,300
Tom Kim	$7,800
Byeong Hun An	$7,400
Matti Schmid	$7,100
Sahith Theegala	$6,800

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The FGR Week 4 NFL Picks

We went 1-2 on last week's picks (barely), our fantasy team lost by about 50 points and our favorite team got trounced at home on Monday night. The word to describe that type of performance is currently "Keeganesque" but we remain undaunted and need a break from this Ryder Cup shit show so let's grind-out a few football picks between European birdies.  

Minnesota by 2.5 over Pittsburgh: The Pick - Vikings

Dear people of Ireland . . .
you too could look this stupid.

They're playing this game in Ireland as part of the NFL's ongoing effort to grow the game by sending some of its most obnoxious fan bases to foreign countries. Despite being 2-1, the Steelers are not very good with one score wins over the Patriots and Jets along with an overall point differential of -5. As long as Carson Wentz keeps throwing it to his own teammates, it should at least be an ugly 17-13 Vikings victory with the added bonus that an American team will probably win in Europe this weekend. 

L.A. Chargers by 6 at the N.Y. Giants: The Pick - Chargers

The coach/quarterback edge for the Chargers is double digits and the Giants defense is really not good so the only explanation for this line not being about -11.5 is that it's a cross-country 1:00 p.m. game. Jim Harbaugh will somehow find a way to use that to his advantage while Brian Dabold will figure-out how to do the opposite. 

Philadelphia Eagles by 3.5 at Tampa Bay: The Pick - Bucs

Not only do you get a home underdog that's 3-0, you also get one of the best late game quarterbacks in the league who will absolutely be slinging-it even if he's down 10 with five seconds to play so the may be more of a probability than a possibility. Also, the Eagles have now won 20 of their last 21 games which is just silly. The NFL does not do silly.  

Last Week's Record: 1-1 . . . Season Record: 1-2. 

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The Ryder Cup Preview

The Ryder Cup heads to Long Island, New York which should be an ideal place to retake possession of it thanks to what will be a particularly "spirited" home crowd along with a golf course on which Americans have dominated. An American has won all five events at Bethpage since 2002 including three majors and in those majors they've posted fourteen top fives against only four by European players. It's like the Ford F-250 of golf courses so apparently it's too much to handle for those used to driving Mini Coopers.   

Long Island holds a special place in my heart as I've been making regular trips up there since my college days. A few of the stories may jeopardize the law license that I still think I have but there was one day that really captured what makes the place so unique. 

After a day that started with golf in the morning and then an afternoon in the ocean, about a dozen of us wiseass frat boys were fueled-up on enough booze and invincibility to carry us all the way to and right past the 4:00 a.m. closing time. Not satisfied with what we had already accomplished, we decided to walk out of town to the nearest bridge and jump off it into the water about twenty feet below (made sense at the time). 

By the time we emerged from the water by climbing onto boats in the marina like history's least intimidating aquatic assault team, we were fully recharged and hungry so we headed to the diner. At some point the conversation apparently included such an impressive stream of expletives that some bodybuilding goombah at the next table barked, "YO!!! . . . WE GOTTA LADY OVAH HEEYAH!!!" We took the hint and dialed it down . . . for about two minutes. As our volume climbed again, however, he and his fellow goombalados stood-up which knew from watching lots of movies would not end well for the frat boys so we took it as our Animal House cue to be "leaving, what a good idea."  

We'll circle back to why this is relevant in a few paragraphs but first, let's get golfy. 

GOLF ANALYSIS 

It's hard to ignore the fact that the road team hasn't won the Ryder Cup since 2012 when the Europeans came back from being down 10-6 after Saturday in what would later be known as the "Miracle at Medinah" or the "Meltdown at Medinah" depending on which side you were on. (I wrote extensively about it here with appropriate references to Mad Men, The Untouchables and of course Moneyball . . . some things never change). The closest margin of victory since 2012 is 5 points in 2014 and 2023 so the home team advantage is hard to dispute. 

The spread as of this posting is USA -1.5 with the following money lines:

USA Win: -150

Euro Win: +170

Tie: +1000

Let's break down the overall match-up along with some individual action along the way.

TALENT

It's a pretty remarkable field as we have 21 of the 25 top ranked players in the world and that 21 doesn't include Jon Rahm. The disparity between the two teams is probably as small as it's ever been and you've got the two alpha dogs coming-in off of impressive wins. I mean this really couldn't be setting-up any better. 

Here are the rosters with World Golf Ranks and the LIV guys slotted about where they would be if they hadn't sold-out:

Rory rediscovering his clutch
game in Ireland is not exactly
ideal for the home team. 

USA	EUROPE
Scottie Scheffler (1)	Rory McIlroy (2)
Russell Henley (3)	Jon Rahm (LIV)
Bryson DeChambeau (LIV)	Tommy Fleetwood (7)
Xander Schauffele (4)	Robert MacIntyre (9)
Justin Thomas (5)	Viktor Hovland (12)
J.J. Spaun (6)	Justin Rose (14)
Collin Morikawa (8)	Tyrrell Hatton (LIV)
Harris English (10)	Sepp Straka (15)
Ben Griffin (11)	Ludvig Aberg (16)
Cameron Young (20)	Shane Lowry (24)
Patrick Cantlay (22)	Matt Fitzpatrick (29)
Sam Burns (23)	Rasmus Hojgarrd (58)

If you looked at nothing but the USA roster and the fact that it includes seven of the top ten plus Bryson DeChambeau, it would be hard not to foresee a relatively easy win but this has to be about the strongest top to bottom roster Europe has ever fielded. When Aberg and Lowry are your 9-10 guys, it's hard to even conceive of your team as an underdog but that's what they are . . . slightly.   

Speaking of Aberg, you've got to like him at +1900 for top points scorer. He's going to get at least four matches and possibly five considering his fitness and a game that should be well-suited for Bethpage (as if it's not well-suited to every golf course in the world). It's either him or Tommy Fleetwood (+950) on the Euro side and Russell Henley (+1800) or Justin Thomas (+2800) for the Americans. 

You can also get Henley at +180 for top first-timer and he's by far the most likely of the five to play at least four matches, two of which will probably be alternate shot with Scheffler. Maybe parlay that with a Fleetwood top three at +320 and then treat the missus to Red Lobster on Monday. 

Edge: USA (minor)

EXPERIENCE

This category may be more critical to the outcome than talent, especially this year because the Ryder Cup doesn't give a shit that you won the Charles Schwab Challenge. No offense to Ben Griffin but beating Matti Schmid by a stroke in May and two-putting from 50 feet with the match on the line at Bethpage are barely the same sport. 

Europe returns eleven of the twelve players who dominated in Rome while Team USA features four rookies which is kind of a big deal because Luke Donald already knows he's got solid if not great chemistry with pairings of McIlroy/Fleetwood, McIlroy/Fitzpatrick, Aberg/Hovland and MacIntyre/Rose while Keegan Bradley has to figure-out who to pair with DeChambeau, how much to play the 2025 less effective version of Schauffele and which rookies will be best equipped to handle the intense heat of the first two days. (They've got no choice but to handle it on Sunday).

The pairing of Scheffler and Henley for foursomes (alternate shot) seems like a no-brainer and you probably want Scottie hitting the opening tee shot because the atmosphere is going to be insane but from there it's not so simple. I'd probably go Cantlay/Thomas, Burns/Morikawa and then maybe Griffin/Spaun with the message to "go out there and show them you belong." Would've been crazy nine months ago to think of J.J. Spaun playing Friday morning at the Ryder Cup but, with his putting and straight driving, he may be the best alternate shot player on the roster right now. 

Edge: Europe (significant)

CAPTAINS

This one really comes down to a matter of taste. Do you prefer Andy Reid or Jimmy Johnson? Keegan Bradley was picked as captain because he brings the fire but the fact is that Luke Donald is the only one of the two to win this thing and we know his players will compete for him. Meanwhile, Bradley may be under more pressure to win than any captain in history. If he pulls it off, they should absolutely bring him back to defend in Ireland but for now, the jury is out until Sunday.  

Edge: Europe (minor)

VENUE

That Long Island story took place about thirty-five years ago back when we ran on little more than Bud long necks and adrenaline. This weekend, however, those bridge jumpers and goombalados are going to be all jacked-up on Zyns, Adderall and jingoism. A few may even have some issues with immigrants and that's the environment the Europeans will find themselves in from the moment they step on the grounds. Their biggest risk may actually be getting too focused on shutting-up the crowd and forgetting to just play. They're certainly better men than me if they can pull that off.

Edge: USA (significant)

PREDICTION

It's shaping-up to be the epic battle we deserve after over a decade of duds but, in the end, the course, the frat boys and the goombalados are going to make the difference. 

USA - 15 . . . Europe - 13 

The FGR Week 3 NFL Picks

We've started a lot of posts over the last few years with something along the lines of "as the world continues to descend into chaos . . ." and at this point it's hard to tell whether: (a) this will just be an endless descent, (b) we'll pull out of it and start ascending away from chaos, or (c) we will eventually land in chaos but that would probably just look like a crazier version of (a). I'm kind of confident that we're never going to get to a full version of (c) because the one thing you can count on from Americans now is that they're too lazy and distracted to even go out and buy their own fast food much less start a civil war. Even if you could DoorDash a grenade, you'd still have to leave the house to throw it at someone so we've got that going for us.

(Note that I wrote that opening paragraph before my daughter spent a good part of Friday on active shooter lockdown in her college dorm so my attempt to be hyperbolic was almost immediately undermined by reality). 

Anyway, life goes on and nowhere is that more evident than with the NFL which is a nice annual reminder that we used to hate each other for more wholesome reasons. I actually miss the days when my friend Steve would kick giant Steeler fans in the back during the third quarter and I would spend the rest of the game imagining how painful it was going to be to have my head smashed into a stadium armrest. It was a simpler time.  

Wagering on early season NFL games is good fun but not recommended for the faint of heart and the prudent because we honestly have no idea what we're even looking at yet. You'd be better off betting on turtle races. They'd go faster and you wouldn't have to endure NFL announcers while watching them. 

Take for example the Indianapolis Colts. Just a couple weeks ago there was a website with a look remarkably similar to this one that called them out for their long-running quarterback ineptitude that has now led to Daniel Jones who of course is now 2-0 after either running or throwing for all five of the Colts' touchdowns. It's like he's channeling the ghost of who John Elway could have been in that uniform (still too soon? really?). 

We won't be doing full slates of games this year because one would be foolish to think that he knows how every game is going to turn out so instead we'll just focus on the ones where the spirit really moves us.  

Indianapolis by 4.5 over Tennessee: The Pick - Titans

With all of that being said about the Colts, we're picking against them. Mediocre NFL quarterbacks and teams tend to revert to the mean even against lesser opponents. Also, we picked the Titans to go over 5.5 wins this year so we're going to need them to get that first one soon to keep pace.    

Jacksonville by 1.5 over Houston: The Pick - Texans

I just don't see the Texans starting 0-3, especially against a Jags team that couldn't beat the Bengals despite the gift of not only no Joe Burrow for most of the game but also three Jake Browning interceptions. There aren't many reliable truths in the NFL but one of them is that, when the other team's quarterback goes out in the first half and they turn the ball over more than you do, you're supposed to win the game. Speaking of which, Trevor Lawrence is currently on pace for a TD/INT ratio of 34/26 which basically makes him a far less entertaining version of Jameis Winston.

L.A. Chargers by 2.5 over Denver: The Pick - Chargers

Taking Jim Harbaugh teams favored by less than 3 points at home feels like a good rule that could permeate these picks throughout the season. Interesting to note that he's the only coach in the AFC West who has not won a Super Bowl. I'm sure the typically nonchalant Harbaugh pays that fact no mind whatsoever.  

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