Tuesday, August 18, 2015

The Draft Kings All Value Top Ten: Wyndham

Let's kick-off this week's top ten by taking a look back at the results of our inaugural Draft Kings effort at the PGA Championship because that's what you do when you experience success and you're a shameless self-promoter. You gloat. (Can we just start calling this "Trumping"?). The purpose of this exercise is to provide a list of players who can be plugged into multiple Draft Kings lineups to produce a winning result. If you went with the six players noted below with a total cap figure of $49,800, you definitely made some cash. If you made just one adjustment and ditched Danny Willett at $7,200 for Branden Grace at $7,300, your $20 entry would've yielded $1,500. Oh so close.

I might as well have picked
Jasmine Villegas and her
fucking flamingos.
Last Week's Draft Kings Top Ten

1. Jason Day - $10,800 (1st)*
2. Bubba Watson - $9,900 (T21st)*
3. Brooks Koepka - $7,800 (T5th)*
4. Robert Streb - $6,800 (T10th)*
5. Danny Willett - $7,200 (T54th)*
6. Henrik Stenson - $9,700 (T25th)
7. Danny Lee - $7,100 (T43rd)
8. Shane Lowry - $7,500 (M/C)

9. David Lingmerth - $7,300 (T12th)*
10. Camilo Villegas - $6,000 (M/C)

This is a work in progress and here's what we learned after the first week: (1) If you're going to play multiple lineups (six in my case), you need more than ten players to choose from so we're going to try to stretch the list to twenty (hold that thought) and (2) Jordan Spieth is good value at almost any price. To take home the big pot of gold, you absolutely must pick the winner of the tournament so, if Spieth is in the field, you have to build at least one lineup around him.

"Do you at least have something
available in a Ryan Moore?"
So back to this idea of a twenty player list which sounds all well and good until you delve into the field of a thin tournament like, oh I don't know, the Wyndham. Look at it this way. At the PGA, you could have had Brooks Koepka for $7,800 but, at the Wyndham, he'll cost you the post-natural disaster bottled water price of $10,800. For $7,800 this week we can put you in a, late model, gently used, pea green Jonas Blixt. I'll pass. 

This is all a very elaborate way of saying that this list is only going ten deep and, when you get to some of the names at the bottom, you'll see why. We'll ramp it back-up for the FedEx Cup. Until then, if you bet the college fund this week, I'm not saying you have a problem but . . .

THE DRAFT KINGS WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP TOP TEN

1. Brandt Snedeker - $10,300

Sneds meets all three criteria for your top dog: (a) You can get him for around $10,000, (b) he's playing well coming off a T12th at the PGA and (c) he has a great track record at this event with a win in 2007 and a bunch of other top tens. 

2. Bill Haas - $9,600 

Haas is the ultimate horse for course play because no matter what the state of his game appears to be, he always plays well at places like Torrey Pines, Doral and Sedgefield CC as evidenced by his T2 last year and T7 in 2012.  

3. Will Wilcox - $8,400

That price may seem a bit steep but it's basically the average you're going to pay per player and Wilcox has been tearing-up the second tier tournaments for the past five weeks so the Wyndham should be right in his wheelhouse. 

4. Rickey Barnes - $7,000 

All of these value picks are going to look like reaches so bear with me. Barnes has been solid of late going T18, T63, T11 and T3 in last four starts. Couple that with his price and the fact that he's finished 24th and 20th the last two years here and you get a low-priced pick who will score you some points.

5. Cameron Smith - $7,400

This week's "is that something you might be interested in?" award* goes to relative unknown, Cameron Smith, who just finished T4 at the U.S. Open and T25 at the PGA. For $7,400, is that something you might be interested in?

6. Ben Martin - $7,900

He's really been struggling since the end of May but some of that has to do with the fact that he's only played against the toughest fields on the toughest courses and skipped easier paychecks like the John Deere, the Quicken Loans and the Greenbrier. He's a South Carolina guy so this tournament brings him closer to home on an easier course which makes him worth a look at this price.

7. Billy Horschel - $9,500

Every year Horschel goes on a two to three week tear and it hasn't happened yet in 2015 which means you should find a spot for him until it does. Especially with the way he scorched the FedEx Cup last year.

8. Camilo Villegas - $7,100 

He burned me last week but he's been a good tournament/bad tournament guy lately and he's the defending champion so he makes a good lineup filler.

9. Johnson Wagner - $7,700

Before missing the cut at the Quicken Loans, he went T5th, T10th and T18th. He hasn't had a lot of success at the Wyndham but he's played in it almost every year since 2007 so he probably knows where all of the bathrooms on the course are and that has to count for something. Right?

10. Jerry Kelly - $6,400 

We always need a bargain basement guy in case you want to stack the top. I'm not going to sugarcoat it. Kelly's case is not strong but he does have nine top 25's this year so he still has game and he finished 4th here in 2011. At $6,400, you get what you pay for.   

Footnote

* If you're not an Entourage fan, here's the back-up for the "is that something you might be interested in?" reference. Now go binge watch the show so I don't have to keep explaining myself. 


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