Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Fantasy Golf: Farmers Insurance Open Preview

This losing is bullshit. In the month of January my NFL picks have gone 3-6-1 and my golf picks have been barely above-average thanks only to Rickie Fowler finishing 4th in a 34 player field. As my boy Mike is fond of saying, "IT'S TIME TO GET ORGANIZED!!!" (this is generally followed by a gin infused rant about how we're all going to die soon and then a reference to a sentimental Bryan Adams song about lost youth . . . it's a real pick me up). So this is me getting organized.

"We think the problem here is that you
just haven't challenged the FGR enough."
What you will find below is a chart of top 30 finishes over the past five years at the Farmers Insurance Open by every player you would conceivably want to wager on this week. (This took me 45 minutes to create on a day when I showed-up for work at noon). It's basically the same approach that has yielded dud picks the last two weeks but now it's in a more easy to digest format. Think of it as a Tide Pod* inside of a Cadbury Creme Egg. It'll still kill you, only now you'll have a good excuse for eating it.

I refuse to give-up on this process. When you look at how many guys have had repeated success on the same golf course over the past five years, you must draw the conclusion that the data can somehow be used to predict future results. Course preference has to matter. I play the majority of my golf on two courses and my scores are far better on one than the other. There, I proved it. I'm even better on two other local courses but I think that's because they each have a bar you pass five or six times during your round. (Not really relevant but no one said science can't be fun).

If you just went by the chart this week, you'd pick Brandt Snedeker and then get on with your day (not listed is the fact that he also won in 2012). However, Sneds has been a bit banged-up lately (no it's true) and he hasn't had a top ten since last February. That doesn't necessarily mean you should ignore him because his record at the Farmers is ridiculously good and he was healthy enough to play last week (missed cut) but recognize that he's about even money to get put down somewhere on the Saturday front nine like a lame horse on the backstretch. At least Jim Nantz would make it sound humane. "And were sorry to report that they had to shoot Brandt Snedeker on the seventh fairway. Now let's go out to Gary McCord in the tower at 16." 

Tiger Woods is a somewhat similar prospect. He has won this tournament seven times and added a U.S. Open title on the Torrey Pines South Course.** If there is any hint of reality to this latest comeback, this week should be telling. My bet is that he intrigues us with a good score on Thursday, follows it with a decent Friday and then fades to somewhere in the mid 30's by the time we're done. Then the Tiger haters and the Tiger slurpers will both spin it in their favor and those of us who just want to sit back and watch it unfold over the course of the season will be tempted to stick divot tools in our jugular veins.

The trend from the chart that jumps-out at me (ahhh!!!) is Tony Finau improving from T24 to T18 to T4 over the last three years. Bombers tend to fare well at Torrey Pines so he's a logical choice. Not as obvious a pick would be the resurgent Kyle Stanley who played well here in 2016 and 2017 and had a win in the bag back in 2012 before spinning a ball back into the water on the 72nd hole and handing the tournament to Snedeker. DraftKings is practically giving Stanley away at $7,400 this week. That's goddamn bulletin board material right there. You gonna take that shit Kyle?!? They're saying John Huh at $7,500 is worth more than you this week. John Huh?!? That guy hasn't even played in a major since 2014. Come on Kyle . . . TIME TO GET FUCKING ORGANIZED!!!   
   
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Jon Rahm
1st




Brandt Snedeker
T9
1st
T19

T2
Jason Day


1st
T2
T9
Scott Stallings

T25
T2
1st

Tiger Woods




1st
Charles Howell
T2
T16
T5

T9
K.J. Choi

2nd

T2

Harris English
T14

T2


J.B. Holmes

T6
T2
T23

Marc Leishman
T20

T27
T2

Keegan Bradley
T4


T16

Tony Finau
T4
T18
T24


Justin Rose
T4




Jimmy Walker

T4
T7

T4
Martin Laird

T8
T7


Shane Lowry

T13
T7


Nick Watney


T7

T4
Brian Harman
T9




Ollie Schnieds
T9




Phil Mickelson
T14




Kyle Stanley
T14
T25



Fran Molinari
T14




Brendan Steele
T20


T28
T27
Gary Woodland
T20
T18

T10
T27
Bill Haas


T19

T9

The One and Done Pick: Tony Finau 
If there's one thing I know about the
FGR faithful, it's that they love farmers.
Great goddamn Americans that they are.


Super Duper Sleeper: Harris English

The DraftKings Top Ten Values


Justin Rose
$10,600
Jason Day
$9,400
Brandt Snedeker
$9,000
Tony Finau
$8,700
Charles Howell
$8,300
Aaron Wise
$7,600
Kyle Stanley
$7,400
Harris English
$7,400
Fran Molinari
$7,400
C.T. Pan
$6,900

Footnotes

* I mean for fuck's sake people I actually had to look at my ten year old daughter the other night and say "please don't eat laundry detergent." Maybe we really are overdue for the Apocalypse. 

** I hate to blow too much smoke up Tiger's ass but the fact is that they couldn't fit all his tournament wins on his main Wikipedia page so you have to go to a whole separate page called List of Career Achievements by Tiger Woods if you want to see the list. And you need to go to a whole other page to see a list of his "off-course achievements" . . . HEYOOOO!!!

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com. 
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