Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Fantasy Golf: The AT&T Byron Nelson Preview

Let's begin with a quick follow-up note to self on last week's Players Championship Power Rankings. Note to self: When doing power rankings, always include the best player in the world. From this point forward (until further notice), whether it is written here or not, always include Jason Day on at least one entry of any multi-player contest that you might engage in so you don't feel like an idiot when he wins. (I actually followed this strategy last week . . . just failed to mention it in the preview. Whoops).

Now we head back to Texas for a little Byron Nelson - Colonial two step (see what I did there?) and we've got a decently stacked little field working with Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Matt Kuchar and the suddenly borderline "A" lister Charley Hoffman. From a one and done standpoint, D.J. has to be the prohibitive favorite because Spieth's game may still be shirtless in the Bahamas trying too hard to prove that it's moved on from the 12th hole at Augusta. Unfortunately, I've already used D.J. along with Kuch, Hoffman and local favorite Ryan Palmer who would have been my second, third and fourth choices so we need to identify the next best dog with the fewest flees.*


Well Sonja Henie's out so it looks like our options are Louis Oosthuizen, Brooks Koepka, Charl Schwartzel and Zach Johnson (there are others but that's how I see it). Louis' level of commitment always scares me, especially coming off the four day grind at The Players. Koepka still looks to be a swing tweak away from his 2015 form and Z.J. is a better option at other venues. That leaves Schwartzel who always seems to disengage the week I pick him as he is about as reliable as $5 umbrella. You know what? Screw Schwartzel and the rest of 'em. I'm picking Marc Leishman.


AUSSIE AUSSIE AUSSIE!!!
THE BYRON NELSON ODDS

Jordan Spieth - 13/2
Dustin Johnson - 8/1
Charley Hoffman - 20/1
Matt Kuchar - 20/1
Sergio Garcia - 22/1
Brooks Koepka - 25/1
Louis Oosthuizen - 25/1
Zach Johnson - 25/1
Charl Schwartzel - 25/1
Marc Leishman - 30/1 
Brandt Snedeker - 30/1
Jimmy Walker - 33/1

One and Done Pick: Marc Leishman

Sleeper Pick: Bryce Molder

FIFTEEN GUYS WE LIKE
OI OI OI!!!

Dustin Johnson - $11,900
Charley Hoffman - $10,800
Matt Kuchar - $10,500
Brooks Koepka - $9.600
Marc Leishman - $9,500
Ryan Palmer - $8,900
Charles Howell, III - $8,200
Keegan Bradley - $7,900
Graham DeLaet - $7,900
Colt Knost - $7,800
Freddie Jacobson - $7,300
Jon Curran - $6,900
Bryce Molder - $6,800
Ricky Barnes - $6,700
Jerry Kelly - $6,700

ONE AND DONE PICKS TO DATE


Hyundai:
Dustin Johnson
$148,000
Sony:
Matt Kuchar
$77,604
CareerBuilder:
Ryan Palmer
$75,897
Farmers:
Brandt Snedeker
$1,170,000
Phoenix:
Hideki Matsuyama
$1,170,000
Pebble Beach:
Jimmy Walker
$143,500
Northern Trust:
Sergio Garcia
$0
Honda:
Patrick Reed
$0
Cadillac:
Rickie Fowler
$197,500
Valspar
Ryan Moore
$414,800
Palmer:
Henrik Stenson
$365,400
Match Play:
Branden Grace
$90,900
Houston Open:
Phil Mickelson
$160,760
Masters:
Adam Scott
$37,000
Heritage:
Kevin Kisner
$11,859
Texas Open:
Charley Hoffman
$1,116,000
Zurich:
Billy Horschel
$28,029
Wells Fargo:
Kevin Chappell
$22,642
Players:
Rory McIlroy
$212,625
Total
$5,442,516

Footnote

* I always wondered what Gordon Gekko's dog rating criteria was beyond flea population. It probably wasn't based on breeding because he scoffed at Ivy League diplomas so maybe he favored speed, strength or raw killing power. Then again, he does tell Bud that if he wants a friend, he should get a dog so maybe he's just a sucker for a good old man's best friend mutt. Actually, I never wondered about this until just now. Not sure why I premised this footnote on a lie. Maybe it's a symptom of desperation from living in a place that's had so much rain over the past three weeks that I've actually Googled "how to build an ark." (That was also a lie . . . I've never Googled that . . . I clearly need some time away from election coverage).