Sunday, September 30, 2012

The Week 4 NFL Picks - Part 2

In the words of legendary American poet Norm Peterson, "it's a dog eat dog world out there and I'm wearing Milkbone underwear." I actually improved my winning percentage last week by going 7-8-1 and that was only because the replacement refs handed me a freebie on Monday night. The bad news is that I now stand at 20-26-2. The good news is that I think I have this finally figured out. The key is not just the quarterbacks, it's also the head coaches. How else do you explain what's happening in New Orleans with Sean Payton out of the picture wearing a home detention bracelet or the fact that the Cardinals absolutely throttled the Eagles? And with less than an hour to go until kick-off, I just stumbled onto the crutch that's going to help me beat the deadline. Let's throw the home field advantage (with some minor adjustments to the standard 3 points for the better home stadiums, crowds, etc.) and the defenses into the equation and see how this goes (because it can't really get much worse).

New England by 4 over Buffalo: The Pick - Patriots

I'm treating her as a positive
because it's my website.
Home Field: Bills -3
Quarterback: Patriots -7
Coach: Patriots -3
Defense: Push
Giselle: Patriots - 3

= Patriots - 27 . . . Bills - 17

Detroit by 3.5 over Minnesota: The Pick - Vikings

Home Field: Lions - 2
Quarterback: Push (Have you actually watched Matthew Stafford this year?)
Coach: Push
Defense: Vikings - 3

= Vikings - 21 . . . Lions - 20

Atlanta by 7 over Carolina: The Pick - Falcons

Home Field: Falcons - 3
Quarterback: Falcons - 3
Coach: Falcons - 3
Defense: Falcons - 5

= Falcons - 27 . . . Panthers - 13

San Francisco by 4 over N.Y. Jets: The Pick - 49ers

Home Field: Jets - 4
Quarterback: Niners - 7 (Not good when Alex Smith is getting the edge on your QB)
Coach: Push (Let's remember that Rex Ryan is still one of the best in the league)
Defense: Niners - 5 (No Darrelle Revis)

"That can't be right."
= Niners - 28 . . . Jets - 20

San Diego by 1 over Kansas City: The Pick - Chargers

Home Field: Chiefs - 4
Quarterback: Chargers - 5
Coach: Chargers - 1 (The rare favorable match-up for Norv)
Defense: Chargers - 5

= Chargers - 20 . . . Chiefs - 13

Houston by 12.5 over Tennessee: The Pick - Texans

Home Field: Texans - 3
Quarterback: Texans - 7
Coach: Texans - 3
Defense: Texans - 10 (The Titans are giving-up 37+ points per game . . . seriously)

= Texans - 30 . . . Titans - 10

Seattle by 3 over St. Louis: The Pick - Seahawks

Home Field: Rams - 3
Quarterback: Seahawks - 1 (Yes, I'm drinking the Russell Wilson Kool Aid)
Coach: Rams - 1
Defense: Seahawks - 7

= Seahawks - 17 . . . Rams - 13

Arizona by 6.5 over Miami: The Pick - Cardinals

Home Field: Cardinals - 3
Quarterback: Push (The classic battle of wits between unarmed opponents)
Coach: Cardinals - 7
Defense: Cardinals - 4

= Cardinals - 27 . . . Dolphins - 10

Denver by 6.5 over Oakland: The Pick - Broncos

Home Field: Broncos - 4
Quarterback: Push (Sorry Peyton fans, but that's probably generous at this point)
Coach: Broncos - 3
Defense: Broncos - 3

= Broncos - 27 . . . Raiders - 17

Cincinnati by 2 over Jacksonville: The Pick - Bengals

Home Field: Jacksonville - 1 (Maybe the weakest home crowd in the league)
Quarterback: Cincinnati - 5
Even their cheerleader outfits
don't look quite right.
Coach: Cincinnati - 3
Defense: Jacksonville - 3

= Bengals - 21 . . . Jags - 17

Green Bay by 7.5 over New Orleans: The Pick - Packers

Home Field: Packers - 4
Quarterback: Saints - 3 (Maybe they'll help each other bust out of their funks this week)
Coach: Packers - 5
Defense: Packers - 5

= Packers - 31 . . . Saints - 20

Tampa Bay by 3 over Washington: The Pick - Bucs

Home Field: Bucs - 3
Quarterback: Redskins - 5
Coach: Push (Greg Schiano's Ra Ra college styles has not worn-off . . . yet)
Defense: Bucs - 6

= Bucs - 17 . . . Redskins - 13

Philadelphia by 2.5 over N.Y. Giants: The Pick - Giants

Home Field: Eagles - 3 (The Giants love the road)
The fact that you thought "wait,
is that real?" is a really bad
sign for the Bears this year.
Quarterback: Giants - 7
Coach: Giants - 3
Defense: Push

= Giants - 23 . . . Eagles - 16

Dallas by 3.5 over Chicago: The Pick - Cowboys

Home Field: Cowboys - 3
Quarterback: Cowboys - 3 (See picture)
Coach: Push
Defense: Push

= Cowboys - 20 . . . Bears - 14

No style points this week but at least I made my self-imposed meaningless deadline.

Last Week: 7-8-1 . . . Season: 20-26-2

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