Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Fantasy Golf: Shell Houston Open Preview

The Houston Open Favorites
Houston, we have a  . . . Never
mind Houston. We're good.

1. Jordan Spieth - 9/1
2. Jimmy Walker - 14/1
3. Patrick Reed - 16/1
4. Matt Kuchar - 16/1
5. Sergio Garcia - 25/1
6. J.B. Holmes - 25/1
7. Rickie Fowler - 25/1
8. Louis Oostuizen - 28/1
9. Phil Mickelson - 28/1
10. Lee Westwood - 30/1

The FGR Houston Open Picks

1. Jordan Spieth
2. Matt Kuchar
3. Louis Oosthuizen
4. J.B. Holmes
5. Sergio Garcia

The FGR One and Don Pick: Louis Oostuizen

The FGR Sleeper Pick: Brian Harman

It's tough to write about a tournament when 99% of your attention is looking ahead to the next one so I'm barely going to try (kind of like your picks huh?). If you pull-up the list of past Houston Open winners and runner-ups, what you see are a whole bunch of guys who can drive the piss out of the ball (technical term). Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Stuart Appleby and Paul Casey have won there fairly recently while Bubba Watson, J.B. Holmes and Henrik Stenson have all come close. Combine that trend with the fact that they set-up the course to play like a Masters preview and we start to get a picture of what our winner is supposed to look like - a bomber with past success at Augusta. (You mean like D.A. Points in 2013? . . . forget it, he's rolling).

Matt Kuchar finished second here last year and always plays well at Augusta but we unfortunately wasted him last week. Jordan Spieth would also make sense and frankly, we might panic pull the trigger on him at the last minute but this just doesn't feel like a big enough stage. Sergio isn't playing well and we have him penciled in at the Open. Jimmy Walker just won and going back to back seems really unrealistic (and we wasted him earlier in the season). Patrick Reed is intriguing but we're just not feeling him this week. And besides, all of those guys seem a bit obvious when this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part.             

So with that ill-fated mission statement in mind, let's pick a guy who is almost sure to disappoint. A guy who flashes brilliance for weeks in a row only to be derailed by phantom injuries that appear out of nowhere and then disappear just as quickly. Sure Louis Oosthuizen only played one really memorable Masters but who can forget that double eagle back in 2012? And check-out his track record in Houston . . . T10th in 2013, 3rd in 2012 and T16th in 2011 (conveniently ignoring his missed cut last year). At best he's a desperate pick with a low percentage upside. Yup. That's our man.  

Last Week's Report Card: B-
"And we're just the guys to do it."

1. Matt Kuchar - T15th
2. Zach Johnson - T20th
3. Jim Furyk - T58th
4. Jordan Spieth - 2nd
5. Jimmy Walker - 1st

One and Done Picks to Date

Hyundai: Kevin Streelman - $70,667
Sony: Chris Kirk - $42,280
Humana: Russell Knox - M/C
Phoenix Open: Hunter Mahan - $36,729
Farmers Open: Hideki Matsuyama - M/C

AT&T Pro-Am: Dustin Johnson - $281,067
Northern Trust: Jimmy Walker - $24,120
Honda Classic: Keegan Bradley - M/C
WGC-Cadillac: Bubba Watson - $540,000
Valspar Championship: Jim Furyk - $23,600
Arnold Palmer: Brooks Koepka – W/D
Texas Open: Matt Kuchar - $99,200

Season Total: $1,117,663

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com