Sunday, November 18, 2018

The FGR's Week 11 NFL Picks

As I typically scrambled to get last week's picks in under the wire at about noon on Sunday because literally no one was urgently waiting on them as either a source of information or entertainment, I noticed that I had gone way overboard on favorites (11 out of 13 games) which never feels like a good thing. They all just seemed so obvious. Either I had an elite team on one side (Rams and Patriots), a JV team on the other side (Bills and Browns) or both (Chiefs v. Cardinals). So how did that work-out for me? Total. Fucking. Blood bath.

By the end of the 1:00 p.m. games I was 1-6-1 and the teams I picked had lost outright by a combined score of 235-139. In six of those eight games I picked the favorite and they lost by a combined score of 155-99 despite the fact that they were favored by a combined 30.5 which means that they failed to cover by an average of over two touchdowns per game. The meltdown slowed as the day went on with the Packers and Chargers covering but then the Rams let the Seahawks hang-around, the Eagles continued their post-Super Bowl impression of a drunk guy slowly falling-off a stool and the 49ers reminded everyone that there was a time that Eli Manning didn't play like he was made of Jell-O. The final carnage was 3-9-1. 

So this week I'm going to overreact by picking at least as many underdogs as favorites whether I want to or not. 

"I mean look at me. I wear a hat
to work and have a stupid fucking
pencil stuck behind my ear."
Carolina by 4 at Detroit: The Pick - Panthers

The Panthers got humiliated by the Steelers last week so they should be heading to Detroit seriously pissed-off. Meanwhile, Matt Patricia is barely halfway through the first year of his head coaching career and he's already doing stupid shit like having his team practice in the snow to prepare for their next four games which will be played indoors and in Arizona. This comes on the heels of him telling a reporter to "just kinda sit up" and "have a little respect for the process." Apparently the sheer act of putting on that Lions' hat makes you an imbecile.

Atlanta by 3 over Dallas: The Pick - Falcons

Last week I predicted that the Falcons would be the team that reeled-off six or seven wins down the stretch and rolled into the playoffs as the team that no one wanted to play. They promptly went to Cleveland and played like they had been told they had to live there for a year after the game. On the other hand, Dallas sucks. 

Baltimore by 4 over Cincinnati: The Pick - Bengals

Apparently it's now a given that when the season is over, the Ravens and John Harbaugh will simply shake hands and part ways amicably. Calls to mind Jack Handy's deep thought . . . "when the age of the Vikings came to a close, they must have sensed it. Probably, they gathered together one evening, slapped each other on the back and said, 'Hey, good job.'" Harbaugh's legacy in Baltimore will be that he won close to 60% of his regular season games, went 10-5 in the playoffs and won a Super Bowl with a quarterback who was never considered top ten in the league. He'll have a dozen job offers waiting for him after the press conference.  

Chicago by 2.5 over Minnesota: The Pick - Vikings

Despite their major hiccup against the Bills, the Vikings have actually weathered the first part of their schedule pretty well with their two other losses coming at the hands of the two best teams in football (Saints and Rams). Their reward is that they get to play three of the next four on the road at Chicago, Seattle and New England with the one home game coming against the Packers. The launch of the Kirk Cousins era may be on hold until next year.  

"Oh sugar. Drew can cover
any number you want."
New Orleans by 7.5 over Philly: The Pick - Saints

That 7.5 number is scary but it sure feels like the Eagles are satisfied with their one season championship streak. Not to mention, it feels like the Saints could cover just about any number at this point. Except maybe 12.5. No one ever covers 12.5. It's a fact.

Indy by 2 over Tennessee: The Pick - Titans

The Titans are allowing the fewest points per game (16.8) in the league and the Colts are averaging the sixth most (28.9) so something's got to give. Considering that the Colts just put together one of the league's least impressive three game winning streaks over the Raiders, Bills and Jags, I'm going to bet that they don't make it four.  

Houston by 3 at Washington: The Pick - Texans

I have dedicated myself to not believing in the Redskins until I'm right and apparently Vegas is of the same mind because when was the last time you saw a 6-3 division leading team giving points at home against a team that doesn't have a win over a team with a winning record? In a related story, I need to find another word for "team" . . . squad? , , , unit? . . . outfit?

Arizona by 5 over Oakland: The Pick - Raiders

Remember that much of this team that Jon Gruden is tearing-down and trying to rebuild in his own image went 12-4 in 2016 and was one late season Derek Carr injury away from potentially going to the Super Bowl. Now they're on pace to go 1-15 with the lone win coming at home against the Browns in a game the refs practically had to win for them. This feels like one where they cover but come-up short in the end. It's really one of 2018's more underrated enjoyable story lines.   

N.Y. Giants by 1.5 over Tampa Bay: The Pick: Bucs

The less said about this game the better. I just can't believe this shit sandwich isn't being served on Monday night.



L.A. Chargers by 7 over Denver: The Pick - Chargers

There is a growing consensus that Phillip Rivers is going to the Hall of Fame based on his bloated stats. Meanwhile, the Chargers are rolling towards another first round playoff appearance where they blow a second half lead and drop Rivers' playoff record to 4-6. Might want to leave that stat off the bust.   

Pittsburgh by 5 at Jacksonville: The Pick - Jags

The Steelers have been on a roll but they're always going to have that enigmatic quality and, if it's going to reveal itself (as it always does), then on the road in Jacksonville is where it will probably happen. I know the Jags have returned to pre-2017 form but now Leonard Fournette is back and they can't be six losses in a row bad can they? (Don't answer that). 

L.A. Rams by 3.5 over Kansas City: The Pick - Chiefs

Way back in week two I did some NFL power rankings and had the Rams in the top spot with a projected record of 13-3 and the Chiefs in the fifth spot with a projected record of 11-5. I took some heat for that on Reddit, especially the part about the Chiefs. (I've since been banned from posting NFL stuff on Reddit for being overly self-promotional (who me?)). Turns-out I actually undervalued both of them as 13-3 looks like the worst either could finish. Suck it Reddit. Your loss.

Last Week's Record: 3-9-1 . . . Overall Record: 24-27-2.    

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Fantasy Golf: The RSM Classic Preview

Edging closer and closer to success as last week the FGR delivered J.J. Spaun (T3), Richy Werenski (T3), Harold Varner (T6), Emiliano Grillo (15th), Rickie Fowler (T16) and Abraham Ancer (T21). Maybe even more valuable than those recommendations was my explicit instruction to stay away from Jordan Spieth who missed the cut so he could spend the weekend chilling in Mexico while making people wonder if he gives a shit anymore. On the other hand I also felt supremely confident in Charles Howell, III who also missed the cut on a course where he had finished top ten three of the last five years. He is now dead to me and I will miss calling him Chucky Triple Sticks. 

Moving on to this week we're seeing a lot of love for Webb Simpson and I mean A LOT of love like he's Steve Stricker getting ready to tee it up at the 2012 John Deere Classic  (he had won it three times in a row at that point and I knew that fact without having to look it up because my brain is filled with important things). I gotta pull a Tom Hanks in Big on this one and say I don't get it. Yes Simpson is playing the best golf of his career but his highest finish at Sea Island was a runner-up in 2011 and he's only had one other top ten. When this much hype lands on a guy who makes you think "hey, isn't he just a guy?" It's time to look elsewhere. 

I think you take Georgia Bulldog Kevin Kisner every time on this track until he goes on a sustained run of failure which, as you will see below, is certainly not the case now. Forget the fact that he just played like crap in Mexico. He's a classic week to week guy who can turn it on anytime and especially when he's playing a course he digs. Same thing with Russell Henley. And J.J. Spaun is currently tied with Abraham Ancer at the top of the FGR's random guy most ready to win list (it's one of over a thousand lists I keep in my head like the lists of people I hate and people who hate me). 

As for the low budget picks, last week I practically begged you to take Richy Werenski at the bargain price of $6,400 and look how that worked-out. I don't feel quite as passionately about Jonathan Byrd this week but, as with Richy, the value is right and I'm feeling at least a top forty finish. Everyone else from the lower price range is a bit of a gut pick, especially Henrik Norlander who has been nothing but an above-average Web.com player lately but also made it into a playoff here two years ago. Just feels right (you mean like picking the Bengals over the Saints?). Different sport. I only claim to be an expert at this.

One and Done Pick: Kevin Kisner

Other Guy I'd Pick: J.J. Spaun

Mid-Range Pick: Bud Cauley


Sleeper Pick: Henrik Norlander


Super Sleeper: Jonathan Byrd

Player to Avoid: Chesson Hadley


Thirty Guys to Consider and Ten to Bet



DK Price
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Webb Simpson
$11,800
W/D
T36
DNP
T41
T7
Cameron Champ
$10,900
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
J.J. Spaun
$10,400
2nd
T57
DNP
DNP
DNP
Chesson Hadley
$10,100
T37
T45
MC
T32
MC
Lucas Glover
$9,900
DNP
T36
T9
T73
T40
C.T. Pan
$9,700
T13
T6
DNP
DNP
DNP
Russell Henley
$9,500
DNP
T10
T6
T4
T65
Austin Cook
$9,400
1st
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Kevin Kisner
$9,300
T4
MC
1st
T4
T20
Luke List
$9,200
DNP
T13
MC
DNP
DNP
Charles Howell
$9,100
MC
T13
T9
T73
T27
Zach Johnson
$9,000
T8
MC
T75
MC
T16
Harold Varner
$8,800
DNP
DNP
T68
DNP
DNP
Denny McCarthy
$8,700
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Chris Kirk
$8,500
T4
MC
T18
T4
1st
Whee Kim
$8,400
MC
T27
DNP
T86
DNP
Jim Furyk
$8,200
DNP
T6
DNP
DNP
DNP
Brian Harman
$8,000
T4
MC
MC
T41
T10
Bud Cauley
$7,900
T8
MC
MC
DNP
DNP
Patrick Rodgers
$7,900
MC
T10
T44
DNP
DNP
Bill Haas
$7,800
MC
T13
T33
T22
DNP
Richy Werenski
$7,800
MC
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
Stewart Cink
$7,700
T25
T10
T63
T32
MC
Brian Gay
$7,500
3rd
MC
DNP
DNP
T4
Andrew Landry
$7,200
T4
DNP
MC
DNP
DNP
Henrik Norlander
$7,000
T54
T2
MC
DNP
DNP
Hudson Swafford
$7,000
T29
T36
MC
T12
MC
Kevin Streelman
$7,000
T17
T36
MC
DNP
DNP
Ted Potter, Jr.
$6,900
T13
DNP
DNP
DNP
T36
Jonathan Byrd
$6,400
MC
T21
T44
MC
T55

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com