Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Fantasy Golf: The Honda Classic Preview

First the good news. Last week I recommended the winner (Bubba Watson) and guys who finished tied for 6th (Phil Mickelson) and tied for 9th (Martin Laird). The bad news? Other than Dustin Johnson who finished tied for 16th thereby effectively wasting my most valuable one and done pick, the only other players in my top ten who made the cut were Paul Casey (T49), Thomas Pieters (T68) and Sang-Moon Bae (75th). Ollie Schnieds, Keegan Bradley and Cameron Tringale are all dead to me (and upon reading that uninspiring trifecta of names, I feel that I need to shoulder some of the blame for my own failure). 

That moment when you realize
you got there a step too late.
Before we get to this week's picks, let's check-in on my personal losing streak. Obviously we have the aforementioned DJ pick fiasco on the heels of missed cuts by previous picks Patrick Reed and Hideki Matsuyama. Last Thursday was a beautiful day in Baltimore so I played golf and lost ten bucks. Then, in my final pick-up hoops game on Saturday morning, I had two open looks at a game winning 3-pointer, missed them both and then almost got a hand in the face of my man as HE hit the game winning 3-pointer. I did coach my son's futsal* team to an undefeated season on Sunday but sports you have to explain to your audience in a footnote don't count.

Back to the business at hand. Good luck picking this week as no player in recent memory has demonstrated a run of success longer that two years at the Honda Classic. (I'm defining "success" as top 25 or better because it suits my narrative). The closest you'll find among any players you'd pick to actually win this week are Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia so I'm going with Sergio because I already picked (wasted) Rickie at the Sentry TOC. You're only other viable options might be Justin Thomas or Gary Woodland unless you want to take a flyer on Tommy Fleetwood as the random British guy who wins in Florida every couple of years. I wouldn't go near Rory this week. He's still out of sync.   

As for value options you have Daniel Berger who the FGR has been known to malign on occasion but the kid can play and he at least showed an affinity for this dubious track a few years ago. If you want a more consistent option in that price range, check-out Jason Dufner who pouted his way to couple of top 20's in 2015 and 2017. For my money, however, the real deals to be had are the $7,300 guys - Ryan Palmer, Graeme McDowell and Patton Kizzire. Not sure why anyone would think those three warrant a huge discount compared to overvalued guys like Brandt Snedeker and Brian Harman but I'll take it (and I just effectively handed the tournament to Harman . . . you're welcome Brian). 

Per the new FGR formula, here's a list of every player I deem worth consideration this week followed by my top ten values picks. It hasn't worked yet but remember what your stock broker always tells you. Past failure is no indication of future success . . . or something like that.     

THE HONDA CLASSIC RECIPE FOR DISASTER CHART
(a/k/a THE FGR'S PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH)

DK Price
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Rickie Fowler
$11,700
1st
T6
T41
T24
T13
Sergio Garcia
$10,500
T14
2nd
T31
T8
DNP
Justin Thomas
$11,300
M/C
T3
M/C
DNP
DNP
Daniel Berger
$8,800
M/C
M/C
2nd
DNP
DNP
G. McDowell
$7,300
T14
5th
M/C
T46
T9
R. Cabrera-Bello
$8,100
T37
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Gary Woodland
$9,700
T2
T61
DNP
DNP
T68
Patton Kizzire
$7,300
T66
T26
DNP
DNP
DNP
Rory McIlroy
$11,500
DNP
M/C
M/C
T2
W/D
T. Fleetwood
$9,400
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Patrick Reed
$9,100
DNP
M/C
T7
T24
T58
Jason Dufner
$8,600
T14
T61
T17
DNP
T51
Ryan Palmer
$7,300
T37
T26
T25
T2
T41
Martin Kaymer
$8,000
T4
M/C
T44
M/C
T51
Adam Scott
$7,700
T14
1st
DNP
T12
DNP
Billy Horschel
$7,100
T4
T8
M/C
M/C
T46
Russell Knox
$9,000
M/C
T26
T3
T2
DNP
Ian Poulter
$7,200
T43
T43
T3
DNP
DNP
John Huh
$7,100
M/C
T14
T17
DNP
M/C
Sean O'Hair
$6,800
T11
T14
T25
M/C
T18
Tyrell Hatton
$9,500
T4
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Brandt Snedeker
$8,700
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Brian Harman
$8,900
T48
M/C
T11
T58
M/C
Bud Cauley
$7,800
T27
DNP
DNP
DNP
M/C
L. Oosthuizen
$7,900
T21
DNP
DNP
DNP
M/C
Alex Noren
$10,100
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
M/C
Andrew Wise
$7,200
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jhonny Vegas
$7,400
T4
DNP
M/C
T12
DNP
Scott Stallings
$8,000
T21
M/C
T63
DNP
T29
Russell Henley
$7,700
T43
M/C
T44
1st
T13

Ignore all the haters Fergie.
I thought you were just great.
The One and Done Pick: Sergio Garcia

The Sleeper Pick: Billy Horschel


The Top Ten DraftKings Values

Rickie Fowler
$11,700
Sergio Garcia
$10,500
T. Fleetwood
$9,400
Daniel Berger
$8,800
Jason Dufner
$8,600
Patton Kizzire
$7,300
Ryan Palmer
$7,300
G. McDowell
$7,300
Billy Horschel
$7,100
Sean O'Hair
$6,800

Footnote

* Futsal is five on five soccer played with a smaller harder ball on a basketball court. It is quite simply the greatest game ever invented. I bullshit you negative.   

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com