The Fantasy Golf Report

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Fantasy Golf: The Tour Championship Preview

One more weekend of quality golf before we shut it down for the offseason with the exception of two events that could draw your passive attention in the President's Cup* and the WGC - HSBC Champions event. It's been quite a year with Jordan Spieth dominating the early half and Jason Day the latter. If 2015 gets the ending it deserves, we're going to see those two battling down the stretch along with some combination of Rory, Rickie, Henrik, Bubba and Rose. As long as Day doesn't lap the field again and Daniel Berger and Steven Bowditch stay out of the way, it's going to be more fun than watching Dustin Johnson try to assemble a bookshelf from IKEA.

So I get one more shot at a prediction this year . . . who's it going to be? Chalk has obviously shifted heavily to Day. Rory played well last week and has a strong track record at East Lake. Spieth appears to have at least pulled his head out of his ass with a tie for 13th at the BMW and he finished 2nd here in 2013. Stenson won it that year and Rickie seems intent on getting his name in the conversation with the new Big Three. Oh it's a veritable potpourri of tends and storylines and that doesn't even include the suddenly intriguing battle for #1 in the world that has never been this close between three golfers this good.

So with all of that in mind, I'm going with the forgotten man Justin Rose. Remember him? You know, the 2013 U.S. Open champion who quietly had a 2015 that included a T2nd at the Masters, a 4th at the PGA, a T6th at the British and, most recently, a T3rd at the Bridgestone. Not to mention, his last three finishes at the Tour Championship are T4th, 6th and 2nd. Feels like a nice semi-sleeper. Do we honestly think that someone other than Jason Day is going to win it? Of course not but the FGR has always been about flying in the face of convention. Even when it's completely moronic to do so.

The Tour Championship Odds

In one of the great FGR finds
of all-time, meet Georgia Salpa.

1. Jason Day - 7/2
2. Rory McIlroy - 6/1
3. Jordan Spieth - 8/1
4. Henrik Stenson - 9/1
5. Rickie Fowler - 10/1
6. Justin Rose - 11/1
7. Dustin Johnson - 16/1
8. Bubba Watson - 20/1
9. Zach Johnson - 20/1
10. Jim Furyk - 28/1

The FGR Tour Championship Top Ten

1. Justin Rose
2. Jason Day
3. Rory McIlroy
4. Jordan Spieth
5. Henrik Stenson
6. Rickie Fowler
7. Zach Johnson
8. Dustin Johnson
9. Bill Haas
10. Kevin Kisner

No luck on finding a model
named "East Lake."

The FGR One and Done Pick: Jordan Spieth

The FGR Sleeper Pick: Scott Piercy

One and Done Picks to Date

Hyundai: Kevin Streelman - $70,667
Sony: Chris Kirk - $42,280

Humana: Russell Knox - M/C
Phoenix: Hunter Mahan - $36,729
Farmers: Hideki Matsuyama - M/C
AT&T: Dustin Johnson - $281,067

Northern Trust: Jimmy Walker - $24,120

Honda: Keegan Bradley - M/C

WGC-Cadillac: Bubba Watson - $540,000

Valspar: Jim Furyk - $23,600

Palmer: Brooks Koepka – W/D

Texas Open: Matt Kuchar - $99,200

Houston Open: Louis Oosthuizen - M/C

Masters: Rory McIlroy - $480,000

Heritage: Patrick Reed - M/C

Zurich: Rickie Fowler - M/C

But we'll keep trying.

Match Play: Graeme McDowell - $49,385

Players: Henrik Stenson - $130,857

Wells Fargo: Webb Simpson - $624,800

Colonial: Zach Johnson - $78,780

Byron Nelson: Gary Woodland - $15,407

Memorial: Justin Rose - $669,600

FedEx St. Jude: Billy Horschel - $168,000

U.S. Open: Phil Mickelson - $23,822

Travelers: Brandt Snedeker - $147,200

Greenbrier: Kevin Kisner - $500,267

John Deere: Robert Streb - $84,600

British Open: Sergio Garcia - $305,878

Canadian Open: Charley Hoffman - $174,725

Quicken Loans: Justin Thomas - $242,875

Bridgestone: Adam Scott - $55,000

PGA Championship: Jason Day - $1,800,000

Wyndham: Bill Haas - $174,825

Barclays: Charl Schwartzel - M/C

Deutsche: Kevin Chappell - $138,600

BMW: Paul Casey - $73,425

Season Total: $7,055,709

Footnotes

* Because it is highly unlikely that I'll write anything about the President's Cup when it actually happens, consider this footnote your official FGR President's Cup Preview. Let's be honest, the President's Cup is still closer to the Skins Game than it is to the Ryder Cup in terms of importance. Anyone who tells you differently either has an agenda or has a name that rhymes with Fim Tinchem. How else do you explain putting Phil Mickelson on the team this year unless you're still treating it like an exhibition? (And for the record, I'm glad they picked Phil because now I might watch it). Oh yeah, this year they're playing it in South Korea. You know, the home of golf.

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

The BMW Championship DraftKings Preview

The second to last event of the season deserves better than the short shrift I'm going to give it here but hey, sometimes the day job and a random Monday golf outing that degenerates into a post-round wine tasting/gulping get in the way. We're coming off a decent week at the Deutsche that could have been better if Henrik Stenson and his caddie would've just bummed a cigarette on the 16th hole to figure out which way the freakin' wind was blowing before Henrik dumped it into the pond. Alas, it was but another runner-up finish for one of the FGR's top picks.

THE DEUTSCHE RESULTS

Are those Xenon headlights?

1. Henrik Stenson - $10,500 (2)
2. Kevin Kisner - $7,300 (T12)
3. Chris Kirk - $7,100 (T29)
4. Robert Streb - $8,000 (T39)
5. Brooks Koepka - $8,700 (M/C)
6. Matt Kuchar - $8,500 (T9)
7. Jason Dufner - $7,600 (T60)
8. Zach Johnson - $9,300 (T22)
9. Jordan Spieth - $11,300 (M/C)
10. Luke Donald - $7,800 (T39)
11. Justin Thomas - $7,900 (T56)
12. Jim Furyk - $9,000 (4)
13. Ian Poulter - $7,100 (T33)
14. Brandt Snedeker - $8,400 (T44)
15. Tony Finau - $7,700 (M/C)

The last time the BMW was played at Conway Farms was in 2013 and, judging by the results, the course favors guys who hit fairways and make putts over guys who bomb it. Zach Johnson won by 2, Jim Furyk shot a 59 but still managed to finish 3rd (they should call that a "Furyk") and Luke Donald got a piece of 4th along with Jason Day, Steve Stricker and Hunter Mahan. (The artist formerly known as Nick Watney finished 2nd so he might be worth a flier in one of your lineups this week). As you will see below, once you get past ZJ, Furyk and Stenson, we're seeing a lot of value in the $7,000 - $8,000 range so most of our lineups will feature four players from that tier along with a couple of the pricier models.

And speaking of the pricier models, Jordan Spieth has to get back on track this week right? (RIGHT?!?). Jason Day didn't make the list because his $12,600 price tag seems outrageous but if your gut tells you he's got another win in him, then you better pony up. We got burned by Rory in Boston so we're staying away until he shows that he's all the way back. Same for Rickie Fowler who often seems to back-up his great showings with dismal ones. Typical Gen X approach . . . YOU DAMN KIDS GET OFF OF MY LAWN!!!

Hey honey, let's go reenact the Whitesnake video.

THE BMW CHAMPIONSHIP TOP 15

1. Zach Johnson - $9,500

2. Kevin Kisner - $8,100

3. Ian Poulter - $7,200

4. Chris Kirk - $7,300

5. Jim Furyk - $10,000
6. Ryan Palmer - $7,300

7. Brandt Snedeker - $7,900

8. Kevin Chappell - $7,500
9. Jordan Spieth - $11,600
10. Robert Streb - $8,000
11. Paul Casey - $7,800
12. Jason Bohn - $7,200
13. Henrik Stenson - $11,400
14. Russell Knox - $7,400
15. Justin Thomas - $7,600

Oh yeah, we're also bailing on the traditional preview this week as that time will be devoted to football but, for the sake of consistency or something, here's our one and done pick . . .

One and Done Pick: Paul Casey

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

The NFL Week 1 DraftKings Preview

In past years, the FGR has brought you everything on the NFL from mock drafts (both real and fantasized), weekly picks and even something called a Preview of an NFL Preview (the picture makes it worth a look). Well now that's all going to change as we enter the instant gratification world of DraftKings, FanDuel and, more importantly, the year when my interest in the NFL began to wane, a fact that became clear to me when I tried to do some preseason power rankings and realized I had no clue what I was talking about (never stopped you before).

My interest may be waning but
I'm not dead inside. Yet.

Despite my complete lack of preparation and enthusiasm, I have still convinced myself that I'm good at fantasy football and, more specifically, the "art" of identifying value players so here comes the inaugural FGR DraftKings NFL Preview where I try to discover the components that will make you the next guy to be standing in a Buffalo Wild Wings, wearing some unaffiliated jersey you bought at Old Navy and acting like a 12 year old girl at a One Direction concert. (Full disclosure: I have no idea what the DraftKings scoring system is yet and I'm writing this under the gun as I'm coming out of one draft last night and heading to play golf before another one tonight so this could be a bumpy start . . . but a really good 24 hours for the FGR).

QUARTERBACKS

Sam Bradford - $6,900: One of the keys to fantasy success in the always unpredictable Week 1 is to identify the shootout. The Falcons-Eagles game features two potentially explosive offenses in a dome against one marginal defense (Eagles) and one atrocious defense (Falcons).

Matt Ryan - $7,500: See the Sam Bradford analysis.

RUNNING BACKS

Carlos Hyde - $5,300: All of the top running backs seem a bit overpriced so I'm looking for deals amongst the players ranked 12-16. Hyde should get 20+ touches and have room to run behind an offensive line that was able to make holes for Frank Gore and his walking stick.

Chris Ivory - $4,100: The Jets offense is not going to stink this year because (a) Rex "Fuck the Offense" Ryan is gone and (b) Ryan Fitzpatrick is the closest thing they've had to a real starting quarterback since Brett "Did You Get My Junk Text?" Favre in 2008 (who doesn't love a fun nickname now and then?). Also, new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey is not Brian Schottenheimer so they've got that going for them. This is a roundabout way of saying that Chris Ivory is going to be solid as long as he's healthy which could be just this week so ride him while you can.

Lamar Miller - $5,500: Miller is generally regarded as the first guy in either the second or third tier of running backs depending on how multi-tiered your system is (I have six tiers cause I'm fancy). That's probably about right for a guy who had 1,099 yards and 8 touchdowns last year. Here's hoping that the Dolphins' dipshit coaching staff took a look at the stats and figured-out that, when Miller got 15 or more carries, he averaged 95+ yards per game. Playing the Redskins will help.

DeMarco Murray - $6,700: See the Sam Bradford analysis.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Jordan Matthews - $7,200: See the Sam Bradford analysis.

Golden Tate - $6,3000: Wide receiver is such a crapshoot in Week 1 because they've barely gotten any gametime to establish a rhythm with their quarterback. At least with Tate you know he's going to get it thrown his way a bunch by a quarterback who targeted him 142 times last year for 99 receptions and 1,331 yards. (Holy shit. Really? Yup).

There's a lot to like in
Atlanta this week.

John Brown - $4,500: For the 5-7 weeks that Carson Palmer is going to be upright, John Brown is a viable fantasy option. Especially this week against the Saints' sieve defense.

Andre Johnson - $6,100: Andrew Luck is going to throw it to him about 150 times this year and, unlike his days with the Texans, most of those passes will arrive between his kneecaps and the space four feet above his head.

A.J. Green - $7,800: The top receivers are going for $8,700 to $9,300 so Green, who is as capable as any of them, is the elite value pick at $7,800.

Charles Johnson - $4,900: I needed another low budget guy and for at least this week I'll buy Matthew Berry's hype that Teddy Bridgewater is the real deal and Johnson will be his go to guy.

TIGHT ENDS

Rob Gronkowski - $7,000: Gronk is so far superior to anyone else at this position that he's pretty much a lock for this preview every week. Especially a week when Tom Brady and Bill Belichik want to send a message that you should never rightfully accuse them of cheating.

Owen Daniels - $3,400: Peyton Manning loves tight ends. Gary Kubiak loves tight ends. Let's be honest, who doesn't love tight ends? Throw-in the fact that Daniels will be facing the Ravens which just happens to be the team he played for and the team that Kubiak coached last year. Ugh.

DEFENSE

Jets - $2,900: I'll take a defense playing at home against the Browns all year until proven otherwise.

Jaguars - $2,700: They're at home against Cam Newton who has no weapons. For this price, why not?

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Thursday, September 3, 2015

Fantasy Golf: The Deutsche Bank Championship Preview

With the cut down to 100 players, we say goodbye this week to, among others, Charl Schwartzel, Lee Westwood and Adam Scott who I shrewdly ranked fifth in my season preview. At least Tiger will be able to fill-out his 8:50 tee time on Saturday morning. Meanwhile, Kyle Reifers, David Cleghorn, Hudson Swafford and Jason Kokrak* live to fight another day (believe it or not, I only made one of those guys up) and this week's players on the 70 man bubble include Ian Poulter (69th), Keegan Bradley (71st) and Charles Howell, III (74th). In light of my deep affection for all things Boston, I certainly hope that Bradley's season doesn't spontaneously combust there this weekend (I'm detecting sarcasm).

Continuing the theme initiated in yesterday's DraftKings Preview and revisited as recently as the last paragraph, Boston doesn't give us much to like but at least this week it gives us a course that produces solid winners so the rankings are going to be very chalky not unlike the skin of most Red Sox fans before they spend a sunscreen free summer baking-in tank top lines at Fenway and degrading the beaches of Cape Cod. I kid because I love (not really).

As for the golf, if you want to keep riding the Jason Day train this week, by all means do but know that (a) it will unquestionably briefly derail at some point and (b) Rory has been on the sidelines watching yet another young stud pound chinks in his "Best Golfer in the World" armour for the better part of six weeks and he ain't just going to sit back and take it. It certainly doesn't hurt Rory's case that he won this thing in 2012 and came in 5th last year.

The other logical choices to bump Day off his stride are Henrik Stenson who came in 2nd last week and won here in 2013 and Jordan Spieth who is Jordan Spieth. If none of those guys are still at your disposal (and they shouldn't be), check-out Robert Streb who finished 9th here last year and Kevin Kisner who showed signs last week of getting back the game that made him one of the best on tour for ten weeks this summer (did I mention that I have a vested interest in Kisner?).

The Deutsche Bank Odds

It's not easy finding sightly Boston
related images but here goes.

1. Jason Day - 13/2

2. Rory McIlroy - 15/2

3. Jordan Spieth - 8/1

4. Henrik Stenson - 16/1

5. Dustin Johnson - 16/1

6. Justin Rose - 16/1

7. Bubba Watson - 22/1

8. Brooks Koepka - 28/1

9. Rickie Fowler - 30/1

10. Louis Oosthuizen - 35/1

The FGR Deutsche Bank Picks

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Jordan Spieth
3. Henrik Stenson
4. Justin Rose
5. Jim Furyk
6. Jason Day
7. Kevin Kisner
8. Zach Johnson

Not bad for an ice hockey theme.

9. Brooks Koepka
10. Robert Streb

The FGR One and Done Pick: Kevin Chappell

The FGR Sleeper Pick: Kevin Kisner

Last Week's Report Card: B

1. Jordan Spieth - M/C

2. Dustin Johnson - T9
3. Jason Day - 1st
4. Justin Rose - T16
5. Brooks Koepka - M/C
6. Jim Furyk - T11
7. Bubba Watson - 3rd
8. Charl Schwartzel - M/C

9. Ryan Moore - M/C
10. David Lingmerth - M/C

One and Done Picks to Date

OK . . . we're getting there.

Hyundai: Kevin Streelman - $70,667

Sony: Chris Kirk - $42,280