I would like an explanation for why this tournament has to suck as an entertainment product. You have one of the most beautiful golf courses in the world and celebrities playing with pros. Just invite some relevant funny people who can play a little golf, mike them up and get the fuck out of the way. How hard would that be? Instead, here is your line-up of "talent" that will go through the same hackneyed on course bits that we've been treated to since Bill Murray's antics were still considered novel.
Alfonso Ribeiro: He's the actor who fell ass-backward into two piles of money playing the sidekicks of Ricky Schroder in Silver Spoons and Will Smith in The Fresh Prince of Bel Air. Other than doing The Carlton Dance on the green at Pebble Beach which is never not forced and unfunny, he has not had a performing role since 2015 and he has not had a performing role in anything you've heard of since . . . scrolling . . . scrolling . . . The Fresh Prince of Bel Air.
Tom Dreesen: Tom's claim to fame is actually a good one as he teamed-up with WKRP in Cincinnati's Tim Reid (a/k/a Venus Flytrap) to form the first biracial stand-up comedy duo in 1968 called Tim and Tom. Apparently it didn't work despite all of the creative energy they devoted to naming the act but I applaud the effort which may have been just a few years ahead of its time . . . like twenty. Back in the 70's Dreesen would open for Frank Sinatra and he appeared regularly on the Match Game which is another underrated career stop. But from there it looks like nothing but bit part acting roles in things like Murder She Wrote and Touched by an Angel which is what people who are now in their 70's used to fall asleep to on Sunday nights after being regaled by Andy Rooney. Apparently Jackie Mason has developed the yips and refuses to play.
Larry the Cable Guy: No. Just no.
Ray Romano: At least he's still relevant having starred in what looks like a solid T.V. version of Get Shorty with the all-world Chris O'Dowd but doesn't it feel like Ray has grown-out of this event having been briefly funny with Kevin James for a year or two before they both got so rich that they didn't give a fuck anymore? Why not invite Chris O'Dowd to play? He's Irish which means that he probably has some game and it might be like getting to watch a somewhat self-aware David Feherty again.
The only celebrity playing who I want to see with a microphone anywhere near him is Michael Pena because he makes every movie he's in better. Specifically The Martian which is the greatest movie ever made if your criteria is how often I land on it for way longer than I should considering how many times I've already seen it. Of course, using that criteria, the greatest movie of all-time before The Martian was Big Trouble in Little China so there you go.
Oh yeah one more thing before I get to the expert analysis. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am website features twenty-five celebrities including the ones I mentioned above, a bunch of athletes, some other actors, a chef and a slew of country music people (to play music that this crowd will look only slightly less awkward dancing to) but you know what they all have in common? They're all dudes. Sure there are some ladies in the amateur field (at least I hope there are) but none worthy of a celebrity mention on the website. Way to read the room fellas. You could have at least invited Bea Arthur's dick.
Ok enough snark. Let's get golfy.
The last two weeks I have correctly advised away from picking the favorites (Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy) and pointed you in the direction of the winners (Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler). Well that changes this week as one of the two overwhelming favorites (Dustin Johnson and Jason Day) is going to win this damn thing or die trying. Since 2008 when D.J. finished tied for 7th, he has added two wins, two runner-ups and three other top fives. The only reason you don't pick D.J. this week is because you (a) burned him in Hawaii or (b) want to save him for Riviera next week or the U.S. Open which will be back at Pebble Beach in June. There are no other valid reasons and no you may not save him for the FedEx St. Jude Classic because he's won it twice. If you pull that crap, I will find you and mock you when he finishes tied for 37th.
If you do decide to go with Plan B, then Jason Day is a very respectable option. During that same 2008 - 2018 timeframe he has six top six finishes at the AT&T including a runner-up last year. The only issue could be some dicey weather and Jason's propensity to feel poopy. The forecast is currently calling for temps in the 50's and rain on Friday and Sunday. That means a long soft golf course which is good but it could also mean cold and flu symptoms. Stay tuned on this one because I may call a Twitter audible to Shane Lowry who is made of Gore-Tex.
We're going with a high/low theme this week as I don't see a lot of value in that Russell Henley, Charley Hoffman, Ted Potter, Jr. range (though I am intrigued by the prospects of Doug Ghim). Once you get past Brandt Snedeker at $8,200, you might as well go bargain hunting with Chesson Hadley, Scott Stallings and Jimmy Walker who had a stellar run here from 2011 through 2014 including a win before he struggled with illness. Last year he posted a tie for 8th despite entering the week on a run of three missed cuts and a tie for 68th so golf on the peninsula tends to bring out the best in him.
As for the clearance rack players, I was so tempted to go with Davis Love, III at $6,700 because he''s won this event twice and he just finished 7th at the Sony Open but his best finish before that was a tie for 57th and last year he only made the cut in five out of twelve events so let's not get carried away. Patrick Rodgers is intriguing because he's got top five ability. Unfortunately he's three times more likely to miss the cut. Brian Gay or James Hahn is going to finish top twenty and the other one is going to finish tied for 57th. Fuck it. I'm going with Jame Hahn. Sabermetrics baby! (I don't think that means what you think it means).
One and Done Pick: Jason Day
Alfonso Ribeiro: He's the actor who fell ass-backward into two piles of money playing the sidekicks of Ricky Schroder in Silver Spoons and Will Smith in The Fresh Prince of Bel Air. Other than doing The Carlton Dance on the green at Pebble Beach which is never not forced and unfunny, he has not had a performing role since 2015 and he has not had a performing role in anything you've heard of since . . . scrolling . . . scrolling . . . The Fresh Prince of Bel Air.
Tom Dreesen: Tom's claim to fame is actually a good one as he teamed-up with WKRP in Cincinnati's Tim Reid (a/k/a Venus Flytrap) to form the first biracial stand-up comedy duo in 1968 called Tim and Tom. Apparently it didn't work despite all of the creative energy they devoted to naming the act but I applaud the effort which may have been just a few years ahead of its time . . . like twenty. Back in the 70's Dreesen would open for Frank Sinatra and he appeared regularly on the Match Game which is another underrated career stop. But from there it looks like nothing but bit part acting roles in things like Murder She Wrote and Touched by an Angel which is what people who are now in their 70's used to fall asleep to on Sunday nights after being regaled by Andy Rooney. Apparently Jackie Mason has developed the yips and refuses to play.
Larry the Cable Guy: No. Just no.
Ray Romano: At least he's still relevant having starred in what looks like a solid T.V. version of Get Shorty with the all-world Chris O'Dowd but doesn't it feel like Ray has grown-out of this event having been briefly funny with Kevin James for a year or two before they both got so rich that they didn't give a fuck anymore? Why not invite Chris O'Dowd to play? He's Irish which means that he probably has some game and it might be like getting to watch a somewhat self-aware David Feherty again.
The only celebrity playing who I want to see with a microphone anywhere near him is Michael Pena because he makes every movie he's in better. Specifically The Martian which is the greatest movie ever made if your criteria is how often I land on it for way longer than I should considering how many times I've already seen it. Of course, using that criteria, the greatest movie of all-time before The Martian was Big Trouble in Little China so there you go.
 |
| "I was told that someone emailed Condoleezza Rice but we got an out of office reply. So we tried." |
Ok enough snark. Let's get golfy.
The last two weeks I have correctly advised away from picking the favorites (Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy) and pointed you in the direction of the winners (Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler). Well that changes this week as one of the two overwhelming favorites (Dustin Johnson and Jason Day) is going to win this damn thing or die trying. Since 2008 when D.J. finished tied for 7th, he has added two wins, two runner-ups and three other top fives. The only reason you don't pick D.J. this week is because you (a) burned him in Hawaii or (b) want to save him for Riviera next week or the U.S. Open which will be back at Pebble Beach in June. There are no other valid reasons and no you may not save him for the FedEx St. Jude Classic because he's won it twice. If you pull that crap, I will find you and mock you when he finishes tied for 37th.
If you do decide to go with Plan B, then Jason Day is a very respectable option. During that same 2008 - 2018 timeframe he has six top six finishes at the AT&T including a runner-up last year. The only issue could be some dicey weather and Jason's propensity to feel poopy. The forecast is currently calling for temps in the 50's and rain on Friday and Sunday. That means a long soft golf course which is good but it could also mean cold and flu symptoms. Stay tuned on this one because I may call a Twitter audible to Shane Lowry who is made of Gore-Tex.
We're going with a high/low theme this week as I don't see a lot of value in that Russell Henley, Charley Hoffman, Ted Potter, Jr. range (though I am intrigued by the prospects of Doug Ghim). Once you get past Brandt Snedeker at $8,200, you might as well go bargain hunting with Chesson Hadley, Scott Stallings and Jimmy Walker who had a stellar run here from 2011 through 2014 including a win before he struggled with illness. Last year he posted a tie for 8th despite entering the week on a run of three missed cuts and a tie for 68th so golf on the peninsula tends to bring out the best in him.
As for the clearance rack players, I was so tempted to go with Davis Love, III at $6,700 because he''s won this event twice and he just finished 7th at the Sony Open but his best finish before that was a tie for 57th and last year he only made the cut in five out of twelve events so let's not get carried away. Patrick Rodgers is intriguing because he's got top five ability. Unfortunately he's three times more likely to miss the cut. Brian Gay or James Hahn is going to finish top twenty and the other one is going to finish tied for 57th. Fuck it. I'm going with Jame Hahn. Sabermetrics baby! (I don't think that means what you think it means).
 |
| My 2019 mission in life is to play Pebble. So let it be written, so let it be done. |
Other Guy I'd Pick: Jordan Spieth
Sleeper Pick: Jimmy Walker
DraftKings Top Ten Values
Dustin Johnson
|
$11,400
|
Jason Day
|
$10,900
|
Jordan Spieth
|
$9,400
|
Chez Reavie
|
$9,000
|
Shane Lowry
|
$8,800
|
Brandt Snedeker
|
$8,200
|
Chesson Hadley
|
$7,100
|
Jimmy Walker
|
$7,100
|
Scott Stallings
|
$7,100
|
James Hahn
|
$6,800
|
It's hard to find much consistency below the top tier at this event but if you want two more guys who might score you a top twenty or even a backdoor top ten, check-out Pat Perez and Kevin Streelman . . . two guys who have never had a similar Sunday morning in their entire lives.
THE VALVOLINE ADVANCED FULL SYNTHETIC
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
THE VALVOLINE ADVANCED FULL SYNTHETIC
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
DK Price
|
2018
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
2014
|
|
Dustin Johnson
|
$11,400
|
T2
|
3rd
|
T41
|
T4
|
T2nd
|
Jason Day
|
$10,900
|
T2
|
T5
|
T11
|
T4
|
T64
|
Tony Finau
|
$10,600
|
DNP
|
T23
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Tommy Fleetwood
|
$10,300
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Matt Kuchar
|
$10,000
|
T62
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Patrick Cantlay
|
$9,800
|
T35
|
T48
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Phil Mickelson
|
$9,600
|
T2
|
65th
|
2nd
|
DNP
|
T19
|
Jordan Spieth
|
$9,400
|
T20
|
1st
|
T21
|
T7
|
T4
|
Patrick Reed
|
$9,300
|
MC
|
T23
|
T6
|
T29
|
T13
|
Adam Scott
|
$9,200
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Paul Casey
|
$9,100
|
T8
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Chez Reavie
|
$9,000
|
T2
|
MC
|
T26
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Branden Grace
|
$8,900
|
T20
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Shane Lowry
|
$8,800
|
T43
|
T14
|
T41
|
T21
|
DNP
|
Adam Hadwin
|
$8,700
|
DNP
|
T39
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Matt Fitzpatrick
|
$8,600
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jason Kokrak
|
$8,500
|
T35
|
T23
|
T30
|
MC
|
T19
|
Sungjae Im
|
$8,400
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
|
$8,300
|
T26
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T64
|
Brandt Snedeker
|
$8,200
|
T20
|
4th
|
T35
|
1st
|
MC
|
Russell Knox
|
$8,100
|
T15
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
T27
|
Andrew Putnam
|
$7,900
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
J.B. Holmes
|
$7,900
|
MC
|
T23
|
T11
|
T10
|
T61
|
Scott Piercy
|
$7,800
|
T20
|
T55
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Doug Ghim
|
$7,600
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Russell Henley
|
$7,600
|
T15
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
T52
|
Charley Hoffman
|
$7,500
|
W/D
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Nick Watney
|
$7,500
|
T47
|
T14
|
DNP
|
2nd
|
MC
|
Ted Potter, Jr.
|
$7,400
|
1st
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Kevin Streelman
|
$7,300
|
6th
|
T14
|
T17
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Pat Perez
|
$7,300
|
T35
|
T14
|
T41
|
T4
|
T7
|
Chesson Hadley
|
$7,100
|
T35
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T10
|
T10
|
Jimmy Walker
|
$7,100
|
T8
|
T55
|
T11
|
T21
|
1st
|
Scott Stallings
|
$7,100
|
7th
|
T14
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Steve Stricker
|
$7,100
|
T26
|
T23
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Vaughn Taylor
|
$7,000
|
T55
|
MC
|
1st
|
T10
|
DNP
|
Brian Gay
|
$6,800
|
T8
|
T66
|
T58
|
DNP
|
T45
|
Graeme McDowell
|
$6,800
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T7
|
James Hahn
|
$6,800
|
T26
|
T58
|
MC
|
T29
|
MC
|
Patrick Rodgers
|
$6,700
|
T8
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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