Fantasy Golf: The Desert Classic Preview

I don't know how you people generate your one and done picks but here is how I generally do it. On Monday I throw a pick into the system just to make sure I don't forget to enter one. The last thing I need is to spend four days watching the tournament while lamenting the fact that I didn't pick one of the twenty guys I thought about picking who happens to be hanging-around the top of the leaderboard. (Forget the fact that the guy I was most likely to pick missed the cut . . . that's just not how my mind works). This initial pick is usually based on a 50/50 combination of casual research and hunch. 

By the middle of Tuesday I've absorbed a shit-ton of data from players' recent form to past performance on the upcoming course(s). Also by this point PGATour.com has released its Power Rankings so I check those out even though they're essentially the top fifteen players in the tournament ranked by their Vegas odds to win. Take this week for example. The top four players in the Desert Classic Power Rankings also have the best odds and the only real flyer on the list is Corey Connors who is going to miss the cut. But I digress. 

Desert golf porn might actually
top Hawaiian island golf porn.

Now it's Tuesday evening and I'm in the office cranking-out the FGR preview fueled by coffee and Cheez-Its while debating whether to go with my original pick or some other player that I now deem to be of equal or greater value. This debate has very little to do with the research I performed other than it produced the top two choices. No this debate is based purely on superstition and whether I think it will be more bad luck to change my original pick or to stay with my original pick. The argument for not changing the pick is easy. Go with your first instinct. I mean that almost always works when you're sober so why deviate from that? 

Here's why. My original pick in the first week of 2019 was Brooks Koepka who finished 24th but in the 11th hour I changed my pick to Xander Schauffele who proceeded to shoot 62 on Sunday and win in somewhat enthralling fashion (at least I found it enthralling). So I figured that set the precedent for the season. Make a pick, research and then change the pick. So last week I picked Marc Leishman on Monday. Then I did my homework and changed my pick to Gary Woodland going so far as to not even rank Leishman in my top ten DraftKings values. Leishman finished T3rd and made $307,200 while Woodland pulled a MDF and made $11,520. Now I have no fucking idea what to do.

Fortunately this week is a total crapshoot with a weak field so the pressure is off a bit. The last eight winners of this event are Jon Rahm, Hudson Swafford, Jason Dufner, Bill Haas, Patrick Reed, Brian Gay, Mark Wilson and Jhonattan Vegas. I defy you to find a common  thread. Part of the problem as you can see from the Arby's Past Performance Chart below (we're actively soliciting sponsors . . . "Arby's, We Have the Meats!"), is that no one who is any good plays this tournament on a regular basis except for maybe Phil Mickelson and he's currently ranked 34th in the world. This is a tournament for young dudes trying to make a name, a handful of established players looking to score a paycheck and a whole slew of journeymen players like Ryan Palmer, Martin Laird and Kevin Streelman who probably enjoy the retirement community feel of the event. 

So who do you pick from that morass? Well I'm just a guy who studies this as a hobby to the point of it being kind of weird but I think the smart money this week is in the middling young guys like Bud Cauley and Richy Werenski. You can load-up on those two along with Peter Uihlein, Brendan Steele, etc. and still have enough left-over to grab a Patrick Cantlay or Justin Rose. I would not, however, waste a one and done pick on those top guys. These birdie bonanzas tend to level the field so you're more likely to see Joaquin Niemann get hot with the putter and shoot -25 than you are to see a Jon Rahm repeat. Don't say I didn't warn you.     

Going for a more thoughtful
artsy fartsy FGR look these days.

One and Done Pick: Bud Cauley

Other Guy I'd Pick: Richy Werenski

Sleeper Pick: Harris English

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Patrick Cantlay	$10,600
Chez Reavie	$9,200
Hudson Swafford	$8,300
Ryan Palmer	$8,200
Peter Uihlein	$7,700
Brandan Steele	$7,600
Richy Werenski	$7,500
Bud Cauley	$7,400
Bill Haas	$7,400
Harris English	$7,200

And here we have the list of everyone I considered picking. Note that this is not exhaustive because I don't want it to be eighty-five rows of guys who've never played the course before and I'm not really interested in Dylan Frittelli at $7,500 (pretty sure I just secured a top ten for Dylan Frittelli . . . you're welcome mate). 

                           THE ARBY'S PAST PERFORMANCE CHART

	DK Price	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Jon Rahm	$11,600	1st	T34	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Rose	$11,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$10,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Charles Howell	$10,300	T20	T12	T11	T56	T58
Adam Hadwin	$10,000	T3	2nd	T6	T48	DNP
Andrew Putnam	$9,700	T17	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Phil Mickelson	$9,500	MC	T21	T3	T24	DNP
Aaron Wise	$9,400	T17	T34	DNP	DNP	DNP
Abraham Ancer	$9,300	76th	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Chez Reavie	$9,200	T36	T12	T17	MC	DNP
Scott Piercy	$9,100	T6	T41	DNP	T30	MC
Luke List	$9,000	MC	T41	T6	DNP	DNP
Kevin Kisner	$8,900	T50	T25	DNP	MC	T48
Brian Harman	$8,800	T20	T3	T11	DNP	T82
Patton Kizzire	$8,700	T42	T50	T42	DNP	DNP
J.J. Spaun	$8,500	MC	T50	DNP	DNP	DNP
C.T. Pan	$8,400	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
H. Swafford	$8,300	T29	1st	T56	MC	T25
Ryan Palmer	$8,200	T20	MC	T17	T10	2nd
Sungjae Im	$8,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Beau Hossler	$8,000	T20	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
C. Schwartzel	$7,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Peter Uihlein	$7,700	T17	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Zach Johnson	$7,700	T20	MC	MC	MC	T3
Brendan Steele	$7,600	T20	T6	T34	T2	MC
C. Hadley	$7,600	T42	DNP	MC	MC	MC
J. Niemann	$7,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
R. Werenski	$7,600	T29	T9	DNP	DNP	DNP
C. Hoffman	$7,500	DNP	MC	MC	T2	T9
Si Woo Kim	$7,500	DNP	DNP	T9	DNP	DNP
Bill Haas	$7,400	MC	T17	T9	1st	T6
Bud Cauley	$7,400	T14	T3	T14	DNP	MC
Jason Dufner	$7,400	T36	T25	1st	MC	DNP
Brian Gay	$7,300	T42	MC	MC	DNP	MC
Martin Laird	$7,300	MC	T9	T49	T15	T25
Harris English	$7,200	T11	DNP	DNP	T30	T33
Jason Kokrak	$7,100	T8	DNP	MC	T48	MC
Johnny Vegas	$7,100	T11	T34	MC	MC	84th
Kevin Streelman	$7,000	T29	MC	T11	T41	DNP
James Hahn	$7,000	T36	DNP	DNP	T20	T38
Seb Munoz	$6,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP

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