The Ryder Cup heads to Long Island, New York which should be an ideal place to retake possession of it thanks to what will be a particularly "spirited" home crowd along with a golf course on which Americans have dominated. An American has won all five events at Bethpage since 2002 including three majors and in those majors they've posted fourteen top fives against only four by European players. It's like the Ford F-250 of golf courses so apparently it's too much to handle for those used to driving Mini Coopers.
Long Island holds a special place in my heart as I've been making regular trips up there since my college days. A few of the stories may jeopardize the law license that I still think I have but there was one day that really captured what makes the place so unique.
After a day that started with golf in the morning and then an afternoon in the ocean, about a dozen of us wiseass frat boys were fueled-up on enough booze and invincibility to carry us all the way to and right past the 4:00 a.m. closing time. Not satisfied with what we had already accomplished, we decided to walk out of town to the nearest bridge and jump off it into the water about twenty feet below (made sense at the time).
By the time we emerged from the water by climbing onto boats in the marina like history's least intimidating aquatic assault team, we were fully recharged and hungry so we headed to the diner. At some point the conversation apparently included such an impressive stream of expletives that some bodybuilding goombah at the next table barked, "YO!!! . . . WE GOTTA LADY OVAH HEEYAH!!!" We took the hint and dialed it down . . . for about two minutes. As our volume climbed again, however, he and his fellow goombalados stood-up which knew from watching lots of movies would not end well for the frat boys so we took it as our Animal House cue to be "leaving, what a good idea."
We'll circle back to why this is relevant in a few paragraphs but first, let's get golfy.
GOLF ANALYSIS
It's hard to ignore the fact that the road team hasn't won the Ryder Cup since 2012 when the Europeans came back from being down 10-6 after Saturday in what would later be known as the "Miracle at Medinah" or the "Meltdown at Medinah" depending on which side you were on. (I wrote extensively about it here with appropriate references to Mad Men, The Untouchables and of course Moneyball . . . some things never change). The closest margin of victory since 2012 is 5 points in 2014 and 2023 so the home team advantage is hard to dispute.
The spread as of this posting is USA -1.5 with the following money lines:
USA Win: -150
Euro Win: +170
Tie: +1000
Let's break down the overall match-up along with some individual action along the way.
TALENT
It's a pretty remarkable field as we have 21 of the 25 top ranked players in the world and that 21 doesn't include Jon Rahm. The disparity between the two teams is probably as small as it's ever been and you've got the two alpha dogs coming-in off of impressive wins. I mean this really couldn't be setting-up any better.
Here are the rosters with World Golf Ranks and the LIV guys slotted about where they would be if they hadn't sold-out:
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Rory rediscovering his clutch
game in Ireland is not exactly
ideal for the home team. |
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USA
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EUROPE
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Scottie Scheffler (1)
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Rory McIlroy (2)
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Russell Henley (3)
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Jon Rahm (LIV)
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Bryson DeChambeau (LIV)
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Tommy Fleetwood (7)
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Xander Schauffele (4)
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Robert MacIntyre (9)
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Justin Thomas (5)
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Viktor Hovland (12)
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J.J. Spaun (6)
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Justin Rose (14)
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Collin Morikawa (8)
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Tyrrell Hatton (LIV)
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Harris English (10)
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Sepp Straka (15)
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Ben Griffin (11)
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Ludvig Aberg (16)
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Cameron Young (20)
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Shane Lowry (24)
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Patrick Cantlay (22)
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Matt Fitzpatrick (29)
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Sam Burns (23)
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Rasmus Hojgarrd (58)
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If you looked at nothing but the USA roster and the fact that it includes seven of the top ten plus Bryson DeChambeau, it would be hard not to foresee a relatively easy win but this has to be about the strongest top to bottom roster Europe has ever fielded. When Aberg and Lowry are your 9-10 guys, it's hard to even conceive of your team as an underdog but that's what they are . . . slightly.
Speaking of Aberg, you've got to like him at +1900 for top points scorer. He's going to get at least four matches and possibly five considering his fitness and a game that should be well-suited for Bethpage (as if it's not well-suited to every golf course in the world). It's either him or Tommy Fleetwood (+950) on the Euro side and Russell Henley (+1800) or Justin Thomas (+2800) for the Americans.
You can also get Henley at +180 for top first-timer and he's by far the most likely of the five to play at least four matches, two of which will probably be alternate shot with Scheffler. Maybe parlay that with a Fleetwood top three at +320 and then treat the missus to Red Lobster on Monday.
Edge: USA (minor)
EXPERIENCE
This category may be more critical to the outcome than talent, especially this year because the Ryder Cup doesn't give a shit that you won the Charles Schwab Challenge. No offense to Ben Griffin but beating Matti Schmid by a stroke in May and two-putting from 50 feet with the match on the line at Bethpage are barely the same sport.
Europe returns eleven of the twelve players who dominated in Rome while Team USA features four rookies which is kind of a big deal because Luke Donald already knows he's got solid if not great chemistry with pairings of McIlroy/Fleetwood, McIlroy/Fitzpatrick, Aberg/Hovland and MacIntyre/Rose while Keegan Bradley has to figure-out who to pair with DeChambeau, how much to play the 2025 less effective version of Schauffele and which rookies will be best equipped to handle the intense heat of the first two days. (They've got no choice but to handle it on Sunday).
The pairing of Scheffler and Henley for foursomes (alternate shot) seems like a no-brainer and you probably want Scottie hitting the opening tee shot because the atmosphere is going to be insane but from there it's not so simple. I'd probably go Cantlay/Thomas, Burns/Morikawa and then maybe Griffin/Spaun with the message to "go out there and show them you belong." Would've been crazy nine months ago to think of J.J. Spaun playing Friday morning at the Ryder Cup but, with his putting and straight driving, he may be the best alternate shot player on the roster right now.
Edge: Europe (significant)
CAPTAINS
This one really comes down to a matter of taste. Do you prefer Andy Reid or Jimmy Johnson? Keegan Bradley was picked as captain because he brings the fire but the fact is that Luke Donald is the only one of the two to win this thing and we know his players will compete for him. Meanwhile, Bradley may be under more pressure to win than any captain in history. If he pulls it off, they should absolutely bring him back to defend in Ireland but for now, the jury is out until Sunday.
Edge: Europe (minor)
VENUE
That Long Island story took place about thirty-five years ago back when we ran on little more than Bud long necks and adrenaline. This weekend, however, those bridge jumpers and goombalados are going to be all jacked-up on Zyns, Adderall and jingoism. A few may even have some issues with immigrants and that's the environment the Europeans will find themselves in from the moment they step on the grounds. Their biggest risk may actually be getting too focused on shutting-up the crowd and forgetting to just play. They're certainly better men than me if they can pull that off.
Edge: USA (significant)
PREDICTION
It's shaping-up to be the epic battle we deserve after over a decade of duds but, in the end, the course, the frat boys and the goombalados are going to make the difference.
USA - 15 . . . Europe - 13
