The FGR NFL Conference Championship Game Picks

We roll into the penultimate round of the NFL season with a 5-4-1 playoff record that was two plays away from being 7-3. Either one of Jake Elliott's missed extra points would've meant an Eagles' cover. Meanwhile, you could pick any one of a dozen plays that the Ravens failed to make that would've put them over the top. Sure the three turnovers and Mark Andrews' drop on the 2 point conversion are obvious targets but let's dig a little deeper into a yet another playoff coaching debacle for the team from Charm City.

Some basic facts: 

• The Ravens were again the best running team in the NFL regular season averaging 5.8 yards per carry. 
• In the first round of the playoffs, they completely shredded the Steelers' 6th ranked run defense for 299 yards. 
• The conditions in Buffalo were cold and snowy. 
• Todd Monken is the Ravens' offensive coordinator. 
• It takes Todd Monken twenty minutes to tie his shoes in January because he spends the first nineteen trying to reinvent shoe laces. 

On the Ravens' first two plays from scrimmage, Derrick Henry rushed for a total of 2 yards. From there, they proceeded to go 71 yards and score a touchdown through a combination of Lamar Jackson scrambles and passes. We should've recognized that drive as the kiss of death.   

Despite averaging 6.6 yards for the rest of the game, Ravens' running backs only got 20 more carries to end with a total of 22. On 2nd and goal from the 3 yard line with a chance to tie the game and right the ship after two turnovers, Lamar dropped back to pass and got sacked. He almost threw a pick on the next play and they settled for a field goal. Four points gone . . . poof.

(Hoosiers voice). "Hey I think
Derrick could beat the guys
trying to tackle him."

In the second half the Ravens scored two touchdowns and went for 2 after both of them. Compounding the idiocy of going for the first one was the fact that Monken called some chaotic pass play that resulted in a weak pass to Isaiah Likely that wasn't even close. It was if the Bills were playing for the pass and who could blame them? Five minutes of film review would lead their defensive coordinator to know that Monken would try to play three dimensional chess only to trade his queen for a pawn.

I could go on but what's the point? Oh wait. All three turnovers were on pass plays. Ok, now I'm done.  

So the season is over prematurely again. Monken has done amazing things with the Ravens' offense in the regular season and against inferior playoff opponents but at some point John Harbaugh may need to look him in the eye and say "you're not a wartime consigliere Todd." 
 
Philadelphia by 6 over Washington: The Pick - Commanders

The doomsday scenario would be a Commanders v. Chiefs Super Bowl which I fully expect to happen and may decline to watch. As I have mentioned before, the football team that plays its homes game in close proximity to our nation's capitol is the sports franchise that I have despised the most during my lifetime. Having to endure the existence of them AND the Chiefs for two more weeks may force me to seek a monasterial existence. 

Kansas City by 1.5 over Buffalo: The Pick - Chiefs 

My initial analysis of this game after last weekend was "who gives a shit?' My secondary analysis was that you have to go with the Bills because the Chiefs can't keep getting away with this right? Unfortunately, neither are very useful when evaluating the reality of what will happen today.

First we have to acknowledge that the Bills aren't all that good. They were at home against the Ravens and got the benefit of a 3-0 turnover margin along with the aforementioned buffoonish coaching and still barely won the game. For all of the Josh Allen leg humping, he only threw for 127 yards and ran for 20. That may have been the gameplan but it would've been a loser if their opponent had played with any competence. 

Now they have to go to Kansas City and play a better coached team that isn't going to hand them the game and, even if they wanted to, the refs wouldn't let them. They're only hope is that Allen dramatically outplays Mahomes and the league decides that we need some new blood in the Super Bowl but ask teams who played the Tom Brady Patriots how likely that is to happen.

Last Week's Record: 2-1-1 . . . Playoff Record: 5-4-1.

Fantasy Golf: The Farmers Insurance Open Preview

A couple times per year the PGA Tour throws me a Wednesday start curveball that leaves me stupefied at the plate and this is one of those times. That inevitably leaves me scrambling for some content on a Tuesday night after a real workday so I do what any seasoned writer would. I pour a couple cheap glasses of wine and turn on the TGL for some inspiration because anything I write has to be more entertaining than that awkward ham handed production.

Further complicating this evening's effort was the fact that I had to stop on the way home to buy some skis and boots. You see skiing is one of the few activities a dad can do with this teenage daughter and only feel like he's embarrassing her about half the time so I do it despite having a lower body build that is way more suited to pursuits like golf and bird watching. 

Like most men, my favorite parts of shopping are paying and leaving so I was dreading the experience of having to buy something that: (a) I know nothing about, and (b) requires a fitting component involving another person. I do, however, think I helped shorten the process when the nice lady asked me what I was looking for most in a ski and and said "safety." 

She brought out a pair of plain black boots that fit well meaning that they were nearly impossible to put on and caused my feet to cry out in pain. Just like that we were only five minutes in and halfway home. Then she pushed her luck and brought out two sets of skis but then had the savvy to explain the difference just long enough for me to get bored and choose the more expensive ones. Ultimately it was a master class in handling an impatient moron as I was out of her life in under fifteen minutes.  

WORK EXCHANGE OF THE WEEK

Reminder that all other characters are played by Bob or Jane and that these are very real if slightly embellished stories.  

Bob: Hey I need to run this excavating contractor we want to hire by you.

Me: What's the issue? 

Bob: Their safety manual is only five pages long.

Me: That seems a little thin.

Bob: . . . and two pages covers animals in the workplace.

Me: What kind of animals?

Bob: Mostly service animals.

Me: You mean like seeing eye dogs?

Bob: Yeah I guess so.

Me: So we want to hire someone who digs big holes in the ground and uses enough seeing eye dogs that they have a policy for it?

Bob: Looks that way.

Me: I see what you did there. 

GOLF ANALYSIS

My remorse for the late post is somewhat tempered by the fact that this tournament has now been decimated by golf's dubious effort to "grow the game." If we were to apply the old Tringale Rule to this field, I'm pretty sure it would generate a rating of "Sucks" which is a shame considering this used to be the first full gathering of great players we got to watch without having to listen to Mark Rolfing. 

I'm pretty sure I've been fixated on Will Zalatoris at Torrey Pines since his runner-up in 2022. He just feels like a guy who should start winning about once a year and this is one of the places he should do it. Now of course I've painted myself into the corner of having to pick him because, if I don't and he wins, everyone who doesn't read this will wonder why I never smile anymore. And yes I have smiled before. Somewhere I think there's a picture of it from before I had kids. 

We rely pretty heavily on the Historical Performance Chart for the rest of the picks because this is about as much of a course for certain horses as you're going to find all year. Add in the fact that last year was a bit of an anomaly and we should be looking at a reversion to the mean this week. I have no idea if that makes sense but you get the point.

Place	Player	Odds
Winner	Will Zalatoris	+2200
Top 5	Maverick McNealy	+550
Top 10	Aaron Rai	+400
Top 10	Stephan Jaeger	+500
Top 20	Joseph Bramlett	+360

Top 20 honorable mention goes to Taylor Montgomery who has two such finishes here in his last three trips. I'm going to parlay the shit out of him and Joseph Bramlett with guys like Sungjae Im and Maverick McNealy because why just win a +700 bet when you can lose a +1427 bet?

One and Done Pick: Will Zalatoris

Going with my spindly
legged brother this week.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Ludvig Aberg 

Sleeper Pick: Joseph Bramlett 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Ludvig Aberg	$10,800
Sungjae Im	$10,000
Will Zalatoris	$9,500
Maverick McNealy	$8,900
Aaron Rai	$8,300
Stephan Jaeger	$7,800
Justin Rose	$7,600
Justin Lower	$7,300
Joseph Bramlett	$6,900
Taylor Montgomery	$6,500

This week's chart is named in honor of Ravens' offensive coordinator Todd Monken. It's going to be a big week for Todd here at the FGR as the man deserves his due.

                                   THE TODD MONKEN RED ZONE

                               HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

Despite the less than stellar field, there's still a lot of color on the board next to intriguing options not mentioned above like Max Homa, Beau Hossler, Patrick Rodgers and Luke List. Aaaaand now I'm rethinking everything.  

	DK Price	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Ludvig Aberg	$10,800	T9	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$10,700	T13	T9	T30	T53	T45
Tony Finau	$10,200	T6	T9	MC	T2	T6
Sungjae Im	$10,000	MC	T4	T6	T32	T36
Keegan Bradley	$9,900	T43	2nd	T65	DNP	T16
Max Greyserman	$9,700	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Will Zalatoris	$9,500	T13	MC	2nd	T7	DNP
Jason Day	$9,300	MC	T7	T3	MC	T16
Sahith Theegala	$9,100	T64	T4	T25	DNP	DNP
Shane Lowry	$9,000	T25	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Maverick McNealy	$8,900	T37	T31	T30	MC	15th
Taylor Pendrith	$8,800	T9	T60	T16	DNP	DNP
Kurt Kitayama	$8,700	DNP	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Max Homa	$8,600	T13	1st	MC	T18	T9
Luke Clanton	$8,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Si Woo Kim	$8,400	DNP	T25	T11	MC	DNP
Aaron Rai	$8,300	T33	52nd	T6	DNP	DNP
Akshay Bhatia (O)	$8,200	T13	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ben Griffin	$8,100	MC	T31	DNP	DNP	DNP
Beau Hossler	$8,000	T6	MC	MC	MC	T9
Harry Hall (O)	$8,000	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	MC
J.J. Spaun	$7,900	MC	MC	T34	MC	T30
Thomas Detry	$7,900	T20	T37	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mark Hubbard	$7,800	T20	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Stephen Jaeger	$7,800	T3	T53	MC	DNP	DNP
Austin Eckroat	$7,700	T37	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Doug Ghim	$7,700	T13	MC	T34	T37	MC
Daniel Berger	$7,600	MC	DNP	T20	DNP	DNP
Justin Rose	$7,600	T56	T18	T6	DNP	MC
Niklas Moller	$7,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mac Meissner	$7,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Wallace	$7,500	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Fishburn	$7,500	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Rodgers	$7,500	T9	MC	T62	MC	T9
Charley Hoffman	$7,400	T56	MC	DNP	W/D	T9
Eric Cole	$7,400	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jhonattan Vegas	$7,400	MC	T25	T39	MC	T30
M. Thorbjornsen	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Alex Smalley	$7,300	MC	T37	T56	DNP	DNP
Harris English	$7,300	T64	MC	DNP	DNP	T71
Justin Lower	$7,300	T43	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Samuel Stevens	$7,300	T43	T13	DNP	DNP	DNP
Taylor Moore	$7,300	T70	T11	MC	DNP	DNP
Gary Woodland	$7,200	MC	T62	T39	T48	MC
Matthieu Pavon	$7,200	1st	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Michael Kim	$7,200	T37	T44	DNP	T53	DNP
Rico Hoey	$7,200	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Thriston Lawrence	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Victor Perez	$7,200	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Carson Young	$7,100	T56	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Frankie Capan	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jackson Koivun	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jesper Svensson	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kevin Roy	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kevin Yu	$7,100	T6	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Max McGreevy	$7,100	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Adam Svensson	$7,000	MC	MC	79th	DNP	DNP
Andrew Novak	$7,000	MC	T69	T70	DNP	DNP
Andrew Putnam	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Henrik Norlander	$7,000	DNP	MC	MC	T2	MC
Jacob Bridgeman	$7,000	T70	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Joe Highsmith	$7,000	T33	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Lee Hodges	$7,000	MC	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Ryan Gerard	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Schenk	$6,900	T25	T20	T56	MC	DNP
Erik Van Rooyan	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Joseph Bramlett	$6,900	T25	T13	T67	T18	T45
Lanto Griffin	$6,900	T64	T37	T30	T7	MC
Luke List	$6,800	T50	T25	1st	T10	T36
Ryo Hisatune	$6,800	T33	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sam Ryder	$6,800	MC	T4	MC	T10	MC
Emiliano Grillo	$6,700	T20	T44	MC	MC	MC
Greyson Sigg	$6,700	MC	DNP	T34	MC	DNP
Jake Knapp	$6,700	T3	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nate Lashley	$6,700	T3	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Joel Dahmen	$6,600	MC	DNP	MC	MC	T55
Nick Hardy	$6,600	T37	T44	MC	DNP	DNP
Trey Mullinax	$6,600	DNP	T31	MC	DNP	78th
Ben Silverman	$6,500	T56	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brandt Snedeker	$6,500	T78	DNP	MC	T32	T3
Taylor Montgomery	$6,500	T13	T31	T11	DNP	DNP
K.H. Lee	$6,400	MC	DNP	DNP	MC	MC
Kevin Streelman	$6,300	W/D	T60	T39	T37	T45
Francesco Molinari	$6,200	T73	DNP	T62	T10	MC
Will Gordon	$6,200	MC	MC	DNP	T42	T21

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