Wednesday, August 16, 2023

Fantasy Golf: The BMW Championship Preview

Recent tournament developments have left the United States Ryder Cup team selection process in a state of disarray. By winning the British Open, Brian Harman jumped up to an automatic bid which knocked a lock like Xander Schauffele or Jordan Spieth out of the top six meaning that Captain Zach Johnson now has to use a pick on a guy who wouldn't have otherwise been named Brian Harman. 

As I see it, that means we now have eight locks and, depending on who you talk to, eleven players vying for the remaining four spots. Your current automatic qualifiers are Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay, Harman, Brooks Koepka and Max Homa. Just outside that top six but absolutely on the team are the aforementioned Schauffele and Spieth. Even if Homa gets jumped for the sixth spot this week, he's in so these eight players are definitely going to Rome.

Now it gets weird. If I'm understanding the point system correctly, anyone from seventh all the way down to Lucas Glover at sixteenth on the current point list could climb into the sixth spot but I'm pretty sure that's the only way Lucas gets a seat on the plane. The results are very respectable, he's done a lot of solid work here, but it's not quite Ryder Cup now is it?

So that leaves these ten prospects (in order of current points): Cameron Young, Collin Morikawa, Keegan Bradley, Sam Burns, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed and Bryson DeChambeau. Before you spit your coffee all over your keyboard, let me tell you that I've heard every one of them mentioned as a possibility regardless of how preposterous at least two of them are.

So which four should Captain Johnson pick? Well for the sake of discussion, please consider that they've played nine Ryder Cups between 2004 and 2021 and, with the lone exception of the U.S. team blowing a 10-6 lead in 2012, they were all won by the team that had the lead going into the singles on Sunday. This would indicate that building as many strong two-man teams as possible as well as an overall positive team chemistry should be a priority. 

Suppose you could make a
case that this would be an
opponent's worst nightmare.
With that in mind, we can eliminate Reed and DeChambeau because they are downright loathsome. Also, the last time they played in Europe, Bryson got his ass kicked all over France. The fact that he's even being mentioned because he recently shot a 58 in an exhibition is ludicrous. Even if Z.J. wanted a random LIV guy, it would be D.J. who has a decent team record and the added benefit of not being despised by his fellow players but the fact is none of those three are getting picked so now we're down to seven.

I initially thought that Sam Burns made sense because you could pair him with his buddy Scheffler for at least three matches and watch them dominate. Then I saw that his Presidents' Cup record was 0-3-2 including 0-2-1 with Scheffler and remembered that most of my two-man golf success came with guys who would give me shit or at least a dose of the silent treatment when I needed a spark (stick not carrot). You're probably not getting that from two Bible study buddies - no disrespect. So Burns is out.

Keegan Bradley is out too. I know he'd bring a big dose of hyper enthusiastic patriotism but he's too inconsistent compared to the other five remaining options. We'll take Rickie Fowler instead - a great putter with experience who you can pair with anyone on the team. Your classic Scottie Pippen/Brendan Gleeson guy (Braveheart, In Bruges, The Banshees of Inisherin . . . do I have to explain everything?!?).  

So now we're down to four for three so it's time to address the elephant in the room. And you're goddamn right I'm taking Justin Thomas. His combined team record is 16-5-3 and that includes going 4-0 when partnered with Spieth at the last President's Cup. He's a flat-out gamer who will have some pressure taken off his shot-making in a match play format. Especially playing with Spieth who thrives on turning chicken shit into chicken salad. If he makes it and they play three times together, they're going 2-0-1. Bank it.  

Finally, we'll round-out the squad with Young and Morikawa who aren't discernibly better than Finau but, if you're going to take the guy who's 21st in points over the number 9 and 10, you better have a good reason. And I don't. 

So here is your 2023 U.S. Ryder Cup Team as recommended by the FGR:

Scottie Scheffler            Wyndham Clark            Patrick Cantlay
Brian Harman                Brooks Koepka             Max Homa
Jordan Spieth                Xander Schauffele        Cameron Young
Collin Morikawa             Rickie Fowler                Justin Thomas

Your move Europe. Pffft. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK

Who knows where this story will ultimately end-up but, as far as bellwethers of character go, waiters and bartenders tend to be pretty reliable. For reference, the Tuohys are the family from The Blind Side and Michael Oher is accusing them of some unseemly dealings.

GOLF ANALYSIS

I don't have a lot to offer as far as a preview because this week feels like a bit of a crapshoot and I'm gassed from all of that Ryder Cup rambling. So in the absence of analysis, let's just take an unsolicited shot at this absolutely ridiculous entry for Xander Schauffele from PGATour.com's Power Rankings:

"Opened the Playoffs with a T24 in Memphis. It wasn’t a slow start inasmuch as he, like many who’ve been there and done it before, knows how to pace himself across these three weeks. Always a threat. Finished T25 here in 2020."

Pace himself? What? Wrong sport bro. First of all, how is hitting 8 more shots than the winner "pacing yourself?" But more importantly, it's not like Xander's out there protecting a lead. That T24 dropped him from 16th to 19th in the standings meaning that he pretty much has to win this week to have any shot at taking the whole shebang at East Lake. Pace himself. Good grief.  

Anyway, I assume everyone is getting thin on one and done picks which means you're eyeing up guys like Wyndham Clark, Lucas Glover and Taylor Moore. I'm going to take a flyer on Harman who finished T12 when they played Olympia Fields back in 2020 (Rahm beat D.J. in a one hole playoff). Feels like Glover has to run out of gas at some point and I don't trust Clark and Moore though, as I write this, I swear the wind is whispering "Wyndham . . ." Probably just my imagination or the early onset of senility.  

The course is a par 70 grinder where Jim Furyk won his lone major back in 2003 if that's any indication of how boring it is. To that end, I've loaded-up on "ball-strikers" like Viktor Hovland, Corey Conners and Cameron Young. Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau and Brendon Todd also get looks due to their top 10 finishes back in 2020. Not a lot of creativity I know but that kind of suits this venue.  

One and Done Pick: Brian Harman
When you're out of options . . .

Other Guy I'd Pick: Viktor Hovland

Sleeper Pick: Brendon Todd

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Jon Rahm

$11,200

Viktor Hovland

$10,300

Hideki Matsuyama

$9,400

Corey Conners

$8,900

Cameron Young

$8,500

Tony Finau

$8,300

Brian Harman

$8,100

Byeong Hun An

$7,500

Sahith Theegala

$7,000

Brendon Todd

$6,600


Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.

Wednesday, August 9, 2023

Fantasy Golf: FedEx St. Jude Championship Preview

I flew to Georgia last weekend so my daughter could measure herself against other girls vying for a spot in a Division 1 soccer program. Fortunately, they don't do it exclusively by height. Anyway, I learned a few things along the way:
  • Traffic in Atlanta and that logistical dumpster fire they call an airport should be avoided at all costs like Caribbean cruise ship vacations and Jason Aldean fans. Shout-out to the loud abrasive 60 something couple wearing his concert shirts on the flight down. We appreciate the warning labels. 
  • Unhinged street preachers are still a thing and my daughter had never seen one. When we went to get some ice cream in Athens, we had a white hellfire and brimstone version on the way there and a spiritually uplifting black version on the way back. She asked me if they were together and I said "well, sort of." 
  • Even when it's not super hot in Georgia, it's still really fucking hot. I found myself honestly debating whether you can call it "spontaneous combustion" if it's caused by you standing in the Georgia sun on August 6th. Would seem more like "self-inflicted combustion." 
And another thing. I know it's easy to think that we Americans have cornered the market on obnoxiousness but I would challenge anyone who believes that to spend two hours with the international crowd at The Club ATL on Concourse F. For those who haven't had the experience, The Club ATL is a place where you can pay $50 for a shower, open bar and a shitty buffet for three hours before your flight. Frankly under the circumstances I would've paid three times that. 

It's described on the website as a "modern and relaxing airport lounge." I will agree that it's modern in the sense that it's packed with people blabbing on their phones or watching Tik Tok videos on full volume but it's about as relaxing as the Bakaara Market in Black Hawk Down. Between the Swedish family with the hiking poles and annoying kids bumping everything in a ten foot radius with their backpacks, the Pakistani family having the a 25 minute FaceTime call with grandma and the Nigerian guy blasting ten second clips of what sounded like garage band guitar auditions, I looked more frazzled than one of the embassy workers on the runway in Tehran at the end of Argo

TWEET OF THE WEEK

The Baltimore Orioles have risen from the ashes to claim the best record in the American League and are generally regarded as the best young team in baseball. They have completely energized the city to the point where no one, and I mean no one, is talking about the Ravens less than five weeks before the season opener. As I write this, they're on a four game winning streak and have won eight of their last ten (editors note: "stop touching the money sir"). 

So as the owner of this juggernaut, what better way to capitalize on all of that goodwill than to suspend your best play-by-play announcer for making the observation that the team has won more games on the home field of its division rival this year than it has the last three years' combined . . . and in a tone that exuded optimism. It was a sharp reminder that this is the same organization that ran-off Jon Miller who, along with Vin Scully, is on the two-man list of all-time best baseball announcers. It also further cemented the belief that the team was handed to Charm City Joffrey and we're going to have to keep tolerating his fragile ego until that changes. 

But don't just take my word for it as Gary Cohen expresses the sentiment shared by nearly everyone much more eloquently and righteously than I could.     

GOLF ANALYSIS

At this point, it's clearly a tale of three seasons. I picked Jon Rahm to win in Hawaii which he did collecting $2,700,000 for his efforts. Then my next twenty-four picks combined to earn a whopping $4,523,920 and a third of that was Scottie Scheffler's $1,540,000 at the PGA Championship where I lost ground because everyone else picked Brooks Koepka without bothering to tell me. Now my last seven picks have earned $7,203,590 including two wins and Russell Henley's runner-up last weekend. And I feel cautiously optimistic about the remainder of the season. 

For starters, I still have Collin Morikawa available this week. It's been an off year for him but he did finished T5 here in 2022. Yes he missed the cut at the British Open but that could be a motivator to build on the runner-up he had at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Right now we're seeing everything as a positive sign. 

The other option would be Matt Fitzpatrick. I don't like to place too much stock in past performance but when they're playing a dogshit course like this one where so few of the great players show any signs of consistency, you have to acknowledge a guy who's posted a T4, T5 and T6 in his last four starts. I know FedEx deserves a home game for sponsoring this thing but maybe we need to find a sugar daddy with a headquarters in a town near a decent golf course. Like say New York or Los Angeles?!?

The track record approach holds true for our sleepers Harris English and Andrew Putnam. In addition to his 4th place finish in 2021, English won on this course in 2013 while Putnam's record is even more impressive with a runner-up, T5 and T24 in his only three trips. Buy with confidence. 

One and Done Pick: Collin Morikawa
That shirt isn't my style. 
It's Collin's style (IYKYK).

Other Guy I'd Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick 

Sleeper Pick: Andrew Putnam

DraftKings Top Ten Values


Jon Rahm

$11,100

Rickie Fowler

$9,500

Collin Morikawa

$9,000

Tony Finau

$8,700

Matt Fitzpatrick

$8,600

Sam Burns

$8,100

Sepp Straka

$7,700

Cam Davis

$7,200

Harris English

$7,000

Andrew Putnam

$6,400


It's a shame that you only learn so much about legends like William Friedken when they die. I'm a complete movie dork and I never knew the same guy directed The French Connection, The Exorcist, To Live and Die in L.A. and Blue Chips. On top of that, he was an absolute Hollywood beast in the same vein as Robert Evans. Suffice it to say Killer Joe just moved to the top of my must watch list (I mean it's also got Matthew McConaughey and Gina Gershon in it . . . COME ON).  

                                        THE JIMMY "POPEYE" DOYLE
                                 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

The LIV Golf effect is reflected in the ridiculous number of DNP's below but I guess soon we'll all be one big happy family again. Speaking of LIV, I randomly switched to it last weekend just in time to see Bryson DeChambeau standing on the 18th tee needing a par to shoot 59. Strangely, I found myself rooting for him to do it because I think 59's are cool. Then he made birdie and I wanted to barf. Always trust your gut. 

 

DK Price

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

Scottie Scheffler

$12,100

MC

14th

T15

DNP

T43

Rory McIlroy

$11,500

MC

T12

T47

T4

DNP

Jon Rahm

$11,100

T5

DNP

T52

7th

DNP

Viktor Hovland

$10,200

T20

T36

T59

DNP

DNP

Xander Schauffele

$10,000

T57

T46

T6

T27

DNP

Patrick Cantlay

$9,800

T57

T23

T35

T12

DNP

Tyrrell Hatton

$9,700

T31

T17

T69

T43

DNP

Rickie Fowler

$9,500

T64

DNP

T15

DNP

DNP

Jordan Spieth

$9,300

MC

T12

T30

T12

DNP

Tommy Fleetwood

$9,100

DNP

T46

T35

T4

DNP

Collin Morikawa

$9,000

T5

T26

T20

DNP

DNP

Jason Day

$8,900

MC

DNP

T6

T40

DNP

Max Homa

$8,800

T42

T51

T52

T61

DNP

Tony Finau

$8,700

T5

T34

T65

T27

MC

Matthew Fitzpatrick

$8,600

T5

T57

T6

T4

DNP

Wyndham Clark

$8,500

T28

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Hideki Matsuyama

$8,400

DNP

T2

T20

T43

DNP

Brian Harman

$8,300

T3

T36

DNP

DNP

DNP

Cameron Young

$8,200

T31

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sam Burns

$8,100

T20

T2

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sungjae Im

$8,000

12th

T46

T35

DNP

DNP

Russell Henley

$7,800

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tom Kim

$7,800

T13

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Keegan Bradley

$7,700

MC

DNP

T52

T61

DNP

Sepp Straka

$7,700

2nd

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Corey Conners

$7,600

T28

T36

T30

T27

68th

Sahith Theegala

$7,600

T13

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Byeong Hun An

$7,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Denny McCarthy

$7,500

T20

DNP

DNP

DNP

T18

Lucas Glover

$7,400

T3

T57

DNP

DNP

DNP

Si Woo Kim

$7,400

T42

65th

DNP

DNP

DNP

J.T. Poston

$7,300

T20

DNP

T30

DNP

T18

Stephan Jaeger

$7,300

T46

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Cameron Davis

$7,200

T13

60th

DNP

DNP

DNP

Justin Rose

$7,200

MC

T54

DNP

11th

DNP

Emiliano Grillo

$7,100

T31

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Keith Mitchell

$7,100

T31

DNP

DNP

39th

T37

Aaron Rai

$7,000

T51

T26

DNP

T12

DNP

Harris English

$7,000

DNP

4th

DNP

DNP

DNP

Taylor Moore

$7,000

T31

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Hadwin

$6,900

69th

DNP

T72

DNP

DNP

Eric Cole

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Thomas Detry

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Svensson

$6,800

T51

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Alex Smalley

$6,800

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Brendon Todd

$6,800

67th

DNP

T15

DNP

DNP

Chris Kirk

$6,800

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

T6

Beau Hossler

$6,700

T57

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Vincent Norrman

$6,700

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

J.J. Spaun

$6,600

T42

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Mark Hubbard

$6,600

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Matt Kuchar

$6,600

MC

DNP

T25

T43

DNP

Lee Hodges

$6,500

T13

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Nick Hardy

$6,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Rodgers

$6,500

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Schenk

$6,400

T31

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Andrew Putnam

$6,400

T5

DNP

DNP

T24

2nd

Kurt Kitayama

$6,400

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sam Stevens

$6,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Seamus Power

$6,300

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

T12

Tom Hoge

$6,300

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Brandon Wu

$6,200

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Davis Riley

$6,200

T31

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Nick Taylor

$6,200

MC

DNP

T35

DNP

T30

Ben Griffin

$6,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Hayden Buckley

$6,100

T61

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Taylor Montgomery

$6,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Mackenzie Hughes

$6,000

T46

DNP

T44

DNP

MC

Matthew NeSmith

$6,000

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sam Ryder

$6,000

T51

MC

DNP

DNP

MC


Email the Fantasy Golf Report here