Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Fantasy Golf: The Wyndham Championship Preview

"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." - Mike Tyson

I had it all mapped-out this year. Get off to a solid start by hitting on a few winners and then bring it home by staying disciplined and saving Bubba Watson and Zach Johnson for the two tournaments in which they have registered a combined three wins and four second place finishes since 2009. Well Phase 1 of the plan worked with three winners and a few other respectable showings but then Bubba and ZJ repaid my patience and loyalty by finishing T25th and T34th respectively (a term I use very loosely under the circumstances). It's almost as if they knew I like to poke fun at guys who thank God for helping them beat people God apparently deemed unworthy in a given week. Or maybe they weren't acting of their own free will and my recent failings are actually a direct sign from God him/herself which could also explain my disastrous season on the course. (I'm pretty sure this line of thinking is a product of binge watching Ray Donovan for the past three days). 

Anyway, we could debate the question of why the righteous suffer all day but that would only serve to distract me from my moral obligation of providing gambling advice for this week's Wyndham Championship and a picture of a pretty lady.* Which leads us to this week's drink a fifth of whiskey, put on a blindfold, spin around three times and throw a dart in the direction of a three legged craps table. Seriously, the defending champion (Davis Love, III) is five years older than me and the guy who won it before him (Camillo Villegas) hadn't had a top ten in over 14 months before pulling the 2014 Wyndham title out of his trasero. How do you figure this sucker?  

The good news is that the three winners before those wild cards (Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia and Webb Simpson) all had some street cred so there is hope of a semi-predictable finish. The way I see it Simpson, Jim Furyk, Jon Rahm and Bill Haas are all due for a win so throw them in the mix with a few bargain guys. And you should probably stay away from my pick Bill Haas until we see some signs of forgiveness for the FGR. I'll keep you posted on that. Just need to figure-out what that kind of sign would look like.  

The Wyndham Odds 
Well, since we've decided
to speak Spanish today.

1. Patrick Reed - 14/1

2. Hideki Matsuyama - 16/1
3. Rickie Fowler - 18/1
4. Jim Furyk - 22/1
5. Brandt Snedeker - 25/1
6. Ryan Moore - 25/1
7. Webb Simpson - 25/1
8. Jon Rahm - 25/1
9. Jimmy Walker - 28/1
10. Bill Haas - 28/1

The One and Done Pick: Bill Haas


The Sleeper Pick: Kyle Reifers 


Ten Guys We Like in DraftKings


Jim Furyk - $11,000

Jon Rahm - $10,400
Webb Simpson - $10,200
Bill Haas - $9,600
William McGirt - $8,700
Ben Martin - $8,000
Robert Garrigus - $7,700
Scott Brown - $7,200
Bud Cauley - $7,000
Kyle Reifers - $6,000

Footnote

* So the FGR's current revised picture policy is that we will only feature paid (not by us) models. It's a sacrifice I know but sometimes compromises have to be made. 

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Fantasy Golf: The Olympic Preview

This post was originally going to be called An Olympically Bad Idea and the opening line of the first draft was "[I]f you still think Olympic golf is a good idea, please raise your hand, clench it into a fist and punch one of the other guys who raised his hand right in the face." Why? Well let's start with the obvious reason which is that Olympic competition is supposed to determine the premier athlete in each sport which would be an intriguing event for golf except that (a) we already know that the four best players in the world are Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy, and (b) none of them are playing this week. But that shouldn't stop us from having a good time and, thanks to our law-skirting friends over at DraftKings, we have a gambling vehicle that will take us there.

"I swear there were 3 of them."
The problem from a prognosticating standpoint is that one of the two pillars on which we base these epic picks every week, course knowledge, is not a factor because none of these guys will have played much less seen the course before they arrive. We do know that it's a seaside course inspired by the "Sandbelt" style most commonly found in places like Australia so, even though Jason Day isn't playing, that should give the Aussies an advantage with guys like Adam Scott and Marc Leishman (what? they're out too? well then who in the hell is playing for Australia . . . Greg Norman and Robert "Road Rash" Allenby?). 

With that linksy seaside feel in mind, we're going to favor British Open guys who are currently playing well with a slight nod in the direction of the two Aussies who will actually be there - Scott Hend and Marcus Fraser (never underestimate the desire of the Aussies to play for their country if not to just inspire one of the greatest chants in sports). That means we like Henrik Stenson and Sergio Garcia along with Emiliano Grillo, Thongchai Jaidee and Soren Kjeldsen (Jaidee's British Open record is really kind of uninspiring, we just have a feeling). 

Another problem is that when you're dealing with a sixty man field and almost half of them have no business being in the same tournament with guys like Stenson, Garcia and Justin Rose (that's not a jab, it's a fact . . . and also a jab), you've got to get really creative when looking for roster value to balance-out those big ticket guys. We think we found a couple in the $6,900 - $7,200 range with enough international success to make them palatable picks. I wouldn't, however, look much lower than Alex Cejka at $6,600. Sure you can grab a Roope Kakko from the bargain bin for $5,600 but seriously, when and where in the fuck are you ever going to wear that?

The Olympic Odds
The Olympic women tee off in Rio next week.
Unfortunately, Sophie Horn is not in the field.
Why can't corruption ever be used for good?

1. Henrik Stenson - 11/2
2. Sergio Garcia - 15/2
3. Justin Rose - 12/1
4. Bubba Watson - 14/1
5. Martin Kaymer - 14/1
6. Patrick Reed - 14/1
7. Rickie Fowler - 14/1
8. Matt Kuchar - 16/1
9. Emiliano Grillo - 25/1
10. Danny Willett - 25/1

Ten Guys We Like in DraftKings

Henrik Stenson - $12,400
Sergio Garcia - $11,900
Emiliano Grillo - $9,600
Thongchai Jaidee - $8,600
Soren Kjeldsen - $8,500
Scott Hend - $7,800
Joost Luiten - $7,500
Yuta Ikeda - $7,200
Nicolas Colsaerts - $6,900   
Marcus Fraser - $6,700

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Fantasy Golf: The John Deere Classic Preview

We're going to dispense with this preview right quick because apparently there is a gambling opportunity with big name talent awaiting us in Rio that we need to address as well. The bottom list should actually be called Zach Johnson Plus Three Other Guys We Can Live with in DraftKings along with Three Seat Fillers and Three Random Guys Who Visited Us in a Dream Last Night (as if we'd recognize those guys in a dream unless they were wearing name tags which, come to think of it . . .). When Ryan Moore is getting 22/1 odds to beat 150+ people in anything, you know you've got a weak field.  

The John Deere Classic Odds

I know I just announced a moral stand 
but this picture is a John Deere Classic 
tradition and you don't mess with tradition.
1. Zach Johnson - 13/2
2. Jon Rahm - 12/1
3. Steve Stricker - 12/1
4. Kevin Na - 20/1
5. Ryan Moore - 22/1
6. Daniel Summerhays - 22/1
7. Gary Woodland - 25/1
8. Brian Harman - 33/1
9. Keegan Bradley - 33/1
10. Robert Streb - 33/1

The One and Done Pick: Zach Johnson

The Sleeper Pick: Steve Wheatcroft

Ten Guys We Like in DraftKings

Zach Johnson - $13,000
Steve Stricker - $11,800
Daniel Summerhays - $10,600
Jerry Kelly - $9,400
Chris Stroud - $8,200
Scott Brown - $8,100
Keegan Bradley - $7,800
Ben Martin - $7,100
Steve Wheatcroft - $7,100
Tyrone Van Aswegen - $6,600

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Fantasy Golf: The Travelers Championship Preview

After about five words my Travelers Championship Preview morphed into a rant about the ridiculousness of Olympic golf so we've moved that idea over to a different post for later publication. The problem is that we now have to generate something interesting to say about a tournament that delivers as much charisma as a Buick (sorry Buick, all you're accomplishing with those ads is reminding us that you're the third most mind numbingly boring American made product behind the Corn Flake and the Golf Channel).

The forecasting this week couldn't be more straightforward. You've got Bubba followed by a handful of second tier guys and then everyone else. If you still have Bubba available (and I'm hoping that a select few of you don't), you will either start him or set a new standard for overthinking it. He's won this thing twice, finished 2nd once and has a tie for 4th when he mis-clubbed on a par 3 in the final round, hit it into the water and then blamed his caddie thus adding to the lore of Bubba.

On an unrelated note, we're going to be changing the theme of the pictures on the FGR for the foreseeable future. We've got a nasty trend of objectification/denigration of women going on in this country right now and this website ain't gonna remotely be a part of it. Not pointing any fingers. Just following our partially functioning moral compass.

"I don't know Ted. I seem to remember a guy
who looks a lot like you handing me that club."
The Travelers Odds

1. Bubba Watson - 12/1
2. Brooks Koepka - 14/1
3. Branden Grace - 14/1
4. Patrick Reed - 18/1
5. Matt Kuchar - 20/1
6. Zach Johnson - 28/1
7. Jim Furyk - 33/1
8. J.B. Holmes - 33/1
9. Paul Casey - 33/1
10. Daniel Berger - 33/1

One and Done Pick: Bubba Watson

Sleeper Pick: Jon Curran

"Hey, we're still friends right."

Ten Guys We Like in DraftKings

Bubba Watson - $12,300
Zach Johnson - $10,200
Brendan Steele - $8,500
Marc Leishman - $8,200
Martin Laird - $8,000
Ryan Moore - $7,800
Luke Donald - $7,300
Colt Knost - $7,100
Jon Curran - $6,500
Chris Stroud - $6,300

Picks to Date

Hyundai:
Dustin Johnson
$148,000
Sony:
Matt Kuchar
$77,604
CareerBuilder:
Ryan Palmer
$75,897
Farmers:
Brandt Snedeker
$1,170,000
Phoenix:
Hideki Matsuyama
$1,170,000
Pebble Beach:
Jimmy Walker
$143,500
Northern Trust:
Sergio Garcia
$0
Honda:
Patrick Reed
$0
Cadillac:
Rickie Fowler
$197,500
Valspar
Ryan Moore
$414,800
Palmer:
Henrik Stenson
$365,400
Match Play:
Branden Grace
$90,900
Houston Open:
Phil Mickelson
$123,760
Masters:
Adam Scott
$37,000
Heritage:
Kevin Kisner
$11,859
Texas Open:
Charley Hoffman
$1,116,000
Zurich:
Billy Horschel
$28,029
Wells Fargo:
Kevin Chappell
$22,642
Players:
Rory McIlroy
$212,625
Nelson:
Marc Leishman
$0
Colonial:
Jason Dufner
$216,913
Memorial:
Paul Casey
$0
FedEx:
Brooks Koepka
$462,933
US Open:
Jason Day
$247,806
Quicken:
Brendan Steele
$28,290
Bridgestone:
Jim Furyk
$66,500
British:
Louis Oosthuizen
$0
Canadian:
Emiliano Grillo
$20,060
PGA:
Justin Rose
$75,636

Total
$6,523,654