The Wild Card Picks - Part 1

After finishing the regular season a dismal 14 games under .500, I've got eleven playoff games to at least partially redeem myself. It's going to take nothing short of an 8-3 record including a correct pick of the Super Bowl for me to be able to show my face around the club for people who make NFL picks that should not, under any circumstances, be used for wagering real money (Ron Jaworski just joined the club last week*). Here we go.

Houston by 4.5 over Cincinnati

Not sure I want a quarterback
with his hands that close to
his neck all of the time.

I don't remember a potential Super Bowl team careening into the playoffs quite like the Texans are. On December 10th, they went to New England with a chance to basically secure the #1 seed in the AFC, got their doors blown-off and now they're riding a two game losing streak where they've been outscored 51-22. Matt Schaub is starting to look like the cross-state version of Tony Romo and their previously vaunted defense suddenly don't look so good when you consider that they built a significant part of their 2012 reputation by stifling teams like the Jags (twice), Titans (twice), Dolphins and Bills.

On the other side, you have the Bengals who would have had one of the most underwhelming eight game winning streaks in NFL history** if they hadn't given one away to the Cowboys in Week 14. Andy Dalton has established himself just above the Ryan Fitzpatrick/Sam Bradford tier meaning that he's probably not going to make a clutch play late in the game but he is also unlikely to give it away with a 4th quarter turnover.*** For the Bengals, this is going to be similar to their Week 16 game in Pittsburgh where they ugly balled their way to a 13-10 win. I'm not convinced they're going to pull that off this week, but the score is going to look pretty similar.

Texans - 17 . . . Bengals - 14
_________________________________________________________________

Green Bay by 7.5 over Minnesota

It's a long way to tank
tops and Tallahassee.

I'm sticking with the Packers as my Super Bowl pick but the way they blew the bye last week has me a bit nervous. Aaron Rodgers did his part by throwing for 365 yards and 4 touchdowns but I'm not sure a defense that gives-up 199 yards to Adrian Peterson AND allows Christian Ponder to throw for 3 TD's and no picks (while only getting sacked once) is going to beat three playoff caliber teams in a row. But we'll worry about that later. For now, the question is whether Ponder can repeat last week's performance but at Lambeau Field where his combined stats for two career games are 28-59 for 309 yards with one touchdown and three picks. And don't ignore the facts that (a) this will only be the 4th game that Ponder has played outdoors this season, (b) the Vikings have lost the other three, (c) it's going to be about 25 degrees and (d) he played at Florida St. Too many factors going for the Pack.

Packers - 31 . . . Vikings - 17

Endnotes

* Last time I checked, Jaws was about ten games below .500 picking seven games per week on the Tony Kornheiser Show while Reginald the monkey was ten games over. Either film study is an overrated way of picking games or that monkey is watching a lot more of it than Jaws.

** How is this for a gauntlet? After beating a Giants team that was about to come unglued, the Bengals beat the Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, Eagles, the corpse of the Steelers and the Ravens' scout team. No one has knocked-out that many tomato cans in a row since Sylvester Stallone during the fight scene montage in Rocky III.

*** Having not watched many Bengals game, I am making something of an assumption on this but I don't remember seeing any highlights of Dalton pulling-off the "Flacco Strip Sack" or the "Romo Lob Pass into the Flat Interception" (which really isn't getting the attention it deserves as one of the most reckless and devastating throws in recent memory).

2013 Fantasy Golf Preview: Part 3 - The Winners

If you're doing a one pick per week league or a one and done league, it would behoove you to go through the tournaments and pick the winner of each one before the season starts for two reasons: (a) it will give you a working list of the roughly forty players who you believe have the potential to win a tournament before the ups and downs of the season start to mess with your rational thinking and (b) it will prevent a situation where you get to the end of the season, have only two picks to use on the PGA Championship and realize, "crap, I still have Matt Kuchar, Bubba Watson and Nick Watney available."

I'm not going to go through every tournament here because that could take years and cost millions of lives (and I can't seem to get through one of these things lately without an Animal House reference). For now, let's just cover the majors, the Players, the WGC events and get the ball rolling with the opening event of the season.

Hyundai Tournament of Champions

Every week the FGR presents two top five lists: (a) the top five overall and (b) the top five one and done players which assumes that you can't pick Rory and/or Tiger every week. The players on my one and done list will be ones that I am not reserving for the majors and the other four near majors listed below.*

The FGR looks for Bradley to have a
fackin' retahded season this year.
Why not start with the opener?

Top Five Overall

1. Keegan Bradley
2. Dustin Johnson
3. Matt Kuchar
4. Scott Piercy
5. Steve Stricker

Top Five One and Done

1. Scott Piercy
2. Steve Stricker
3. Webb Simpson
4. Rickie Fowler
5. Nick Watney

Bradley is going to be a threat to win every time he tees it up this year and especially on courses where he can bomb it and make a lot of birdies like Kapalua. Scott Piercy is coming-off a strong finish to 2012 and can also make birdies in bunches. So can Steve Stricker who is the defending champ and has never finished worse than 10th in this event. Can't go wrong with either of those guys if you want to save Bradley for later.
_______________________________________________________________________

And now for the eight tournaments where you probably want to allocate your most potent resources in 2013. One thing you will notice about the game plan outlined below is that it leaves plenty of solid options on the bench including Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Graeme McDowell, Peter Hanson and Webb Simpson. You could sub Watson, McDowell and Hanson just about anywhere except you might want to avoid Bubba at the British Open where he's never finished higher than 23rd (towering cuts/draws + wind = trouble). Keep in mind that D.J. has won the AT&T Pebble Beach twice and has two other top tens there in the last five years. Also consider that Webb Simpson is a member at Quail Hollow Club which hosts the Wells Fargo Championship where he finished 4th last year.

A lot can happen over the course of a nearly ten month long golf season and I am prone to at least one or two impulsive/calamitous last minute substitutions so these picks are subject to revision but if I was calling these tournaments now, here is what it would look like.

Accenture World Match Play: Keegan Bradley and Ian Poulter

This pose is just a recurring match
play nightmare for opponents.

This is a tricky one because you want to bring-out the big guns but that often backfires. For example, if you used your two picks last year on the 2010 and 2011 champions (Ian Poulter and Luke Donald), you were done in the first round. In hindsight, Rory McIlroy would have been a great pick but do you want to use him in a non-major? Bradley won a couple matches last year in his Accenture debut and was at the top of his game at the Ryder Cup. If you have to ask why I'm picking Poulter in this format, you may be gambling on the wrong sport.

WGC Cadillac: Charl Schwartzel and Matt Kuchar

This event traditionally features one of the strongest final leaderboards on tour so you better bring two of your best. It's almost impossible to go wrong here. Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, Luke Donald, Rory McIlroy and defending champion Justin Rose would all be great picks. Just depends on who you want to save for later. All I ask is that, at some point during the final round, you think fondly of the fact that the most over-served the FGR has ever been on a golf course (that he wasn't playing at the time) was at the Blue Monster during the final round of the 1997 Doral Ryder Open.**

Masters: Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott

I made the mistake of subbing Tiger in for Phil last year after Tiger's win at the Arnold Palmer duped me into the thinking he was all the way back and Phil's sloppy early season putting made me think he was going to struggle at Augusta. Last year was Phil's thirteenth top seven finish at the Masters since 1995 including three wins. His tie for 24th in 2007 was the first time he's missed the top ten since 1998 and his only missed cut was fifteen years ago. At this point I'm struggling with the second pick. Bubba would obviously be a decent choice but no one has gone back to back since Tiger in 2001 and 2002. Louis Oostuizen warrants consideration but his record at Augusta before last year's second place finish includes three missed cuts in three tries and his blowout British Open win in 2010 is his only other standout performance in a major. I'm going with Adam Scott for now. He finished tied for 8th in 2012 and tied for 2nd in 2011. He also finished 15th or better in every major last year. Not to mention, he needs to win one before they take his putter away.

The Players: Luke Donald and Bo Van Pelt

Craig . . . is that a look of
exultation or disbelief?

My well-documented disdain for the TPC at Sawgrass is based on the fact that five of the last eleven winners have been underwhelming (Tim Clark, Henrik Stenson, Stephen Ames and Craig Perks have combined to win 3 PGA Tour events other than the Players and Fred Funk was 49 when he won it). It's also the only tournament of any significance that Tiger has won just once. I'm picking Donald and Van Pelt because they are two of the most solid all-around players that I don't trust in a major. Sounds like a couple Players Championship winners to me.

U.S. Open: Jason Dufner and Lee Westwood

It's tough to get a read on Merion as a U.S. Open course because it hasn't been played there since 1981 when David Graham won it by three strokes over George Burns (not the comedian) and Bill Rogers (not the 1980 Boston Marathon winner). You've got to drop back four more strokes to get to legends like Jack Nicklaus and Chi-Chi Rodriguez so that's no real help.*** I'm banking on the first-time major winners trend continuing and going with two guys who have classic U.S. Open style games. It just feels like Dufner is going to win a major this year doesn't it? And if you were going to pick one that suits his game, it would be a U.S. Open.

British Open: Ernie Els and Sergio Garcia

I know it's of a cop-out to go with the defending champion here but, if I have to make a pick in January, I'm taking with the guy who won it the last time it was played at Muirfield in 2002. Sergio missed the playoff that year by two strokes after shooting 71-69-71-69. He also showed continuing signs at the end of last year that his game is still on the way back with a win at the Wyndham, a tie for 3rd at the Barclays and a tie for 15th at the Tour Championship. I still believe that he falls into that category of player who is going to come back and win a major after we've written him off and if that's going to happen anywhere, it will be at the British Open.

Bridgestone: Tiger Woods and Louis Oosthuizen

I think enough time has passed
for us to start liking Sergio again.

Every time Tiger has been in top form, he's dominated this event (winning it seven times) which is played on the same course every year. There are certain tracks that Tiger just owns and this is one of them. If you want to use him at Arnie or Jack's tournament, that is also acceptable but the league I'm in pays a dividend for the Bridgestone so I'm using him here. Louis finished 4th at Firestone last year, tied for 9th in 2010 and it's a great fit for his game.

PGA Championship: Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy

The leaderboard from the last time they played at Oak Hill would indicate that it is a ball-strikers paradise**** so I'm going with two of the best in the world. Putting has not been one of Rose's strengths lately so if he's going to break-through and win a major, this is his best chance in 2013. You could pick McIlroy pretty much anywhere. I'd be reluctant to use him at the match-play because one bad round or opponent with a hot putter could knock him out early. He makes more sense at a stroke play event where he always has the potential to shoot 11 or 12 under on the weekend and either make-up a ton of ground (WGC-Cadillac) or blow-away the field (PGA Championship).

Email your questions and comments to the Fantasy Golf Report at Email the FGR.

Endnotes

* In the format I play, the majors, the Players and the three WGC events come with a little extra incentive so you are encouraged to bring out your "A" players for them.

** The recount of this event also spawned one of my personal favorite FGR entries - The Blue Monster.

How are we going to reach the 18-
24 male demographic with a show
about a Cincinnati radio station?

*** Unfortunately, there does not appear to be a Youtube clip of WKRP in Cincinnati's Les Nessman butchering the name "Chi-Chi Rodriguez" (as in Chai Chai Rodweeguezzzz) so we'll have to settle for "Monster Lizard Ravages East Coast." (Developing something of a monster theme this week).

**** Shaun Micheel became one of the most unlikely major winners in golf history beating Chad Campbell by two strokes and any course where Campbell, Kenny Perry and Charles Howell, III can finish in the top 10 clearly does not put a premium on putting.

2013 Fantasy Golf Preview: Part 2 - The Top 30

In Part 1 of the FGR's 2013 Fantasy Golf Preview, we covered a better way to play the game based on six player rosters and a money list approach. (Warning: it's about to get really golfy). Now it's time for some draft prep because, in that format, your first and second round picks will probably make (Bubba Watson and Jason Dufner) or break (Jason Day and Charl Schwartzel) your team. Remember that our first objective here is prize money. Unlike other fantasy sports, there are no positional concerns in a fantasy golf draft so with each pick it simply comes down to whether you like Player "A" more than Player "B" and/or Player "C."

It's going to be hard to ignore the
memory of this image in Round 2. 

There are a few simple rules to follow when making those choices. The first one is "when in doubt, pick the guy who plays more tournaments." That would seem obvious but would you rather have Ian Poulter for 15 tournaments or Carl Pettersson for 26? Are you willing to give up that many extra shots at adding prize money on the chance that Poulter is going to win and justify a second round pick? (at this point I am not but we'll see what happens when we get to Round 2 after a few beers because I'm not sure I could pull the trigger on the big Swede that early).

The other thing to consider is that golfers have a tendency to revert back to their means both positively and negatively. For example, Zach Johnson is probably about the 12th-15th best player on tour but last year he finished 6th on the money list, in 2009 he finished 4th and in 2007 he finished 8th. In 2011, 2010 and 2008, however, he finished 44th, 19th and 53rd. So do you bet on ZJ having back to back top 10's even though he's never done it before or do you play the odds and bump him back into the teens or even the low 20's? Chances are someone is going to jump on him too early. Just make sure you're not that guy.

Enough rules. This isn't rocket science because if there was this much guess work involved in rocket science, it would be called something else . . . like rocketology. The problem this year is that the talent pool has gotten so deep that, after the top two picks, I could make a case for any of my next sixteen to go in the third spot. That will explain why what I say about a player ranked in the mid teens makes him sound like he should be 4th. I mean what can I say to justify the fact that I have the player who won the 2012 U.S. Open and finished second on the 2011 money list ranked 14th other than I think there are 13 guys who are good enough to finish ahead of him this year. I've reshuffled this list a dozen times but now it's time to launch this sucker (see how I brought it back to the rocket theme there? . . . That's what you do when you can't figure out how to transition to the next topic).

1. Rory McIlroy because he is the best player in the world and after winning his second major in two years and then backing that up with a strong Ryder Cup performance, he KNOWS he's the best player in the world.

2. Tiger Woods because he is not ready to admit that Rory is the best player in the world even if deep-down he knows it to be true. In addition to three wins last season, Tiger played really solidly down the stretch with five top 10's out of seven events with loaded fields. He's in the process of making one more run at being the best player in the world and I'm not betting against him. I'm reluctant to go with the same one-two combination from the 2102 money list but it's not unprecedented as Tiger and Phil Mickelson did it three years in a row from 2000-2002. I can see Rory and Tiger having a similar run.

3. Jason Dufner because he always shows-up as evidenced by his fourteen top 25's in twenty-two tournaments last year. You could also look at it like this. Which player is most likely to win his first major in 2013? The answer is Dufner or Lee Westwood right? And Dufner gets the nod in the rankings because he plays more events and he only has the scars of blowing one major in his career as opposed to Westwood who has more scars than a rookie lion tamer.

4. Keegan Bradley because he is ready to add consistency to his big game ability. It looked like he was going to do it last year when he was rock solid right up to the Masters and then things inexplicably went sideways until he won the Bridgestone and finished tied for 3rd at the PGA Championship. He also would have brought home the Ryder Cup for the U.S. if coach Love hadn't left him on the bench for the most critical match as explained in The FGR Rankings Update.

5. Justin Rose because he's too good to win just one tournament in a season and he may have been the only guy to get a bigger confidence bump from the Ryder Cup than Bradley. He finished 7th on last year's money list despite some very suspect putting (121st in putts per round). He's a better putter than that and a modest improvement in that area this year is going to land him a major.

Pretty much your standard
follow through for hitting
a fade . . . right?

6. Bubba Watson because every time Bubba makes the cut, he finishes in the top 25 (literally every time . . . 16 out of 16 last year). On my first pass through this list I had Bubba 18th because I kept comparing him to the next guy and thinking, "that other guy is better." Then I came to my senses and realized that the reason I underrate Bubba is that I cannot begin to understand how he can be as consistent as he is while hitting 300+ yard curveballs off the tee. It's hard to wager with confidence on something you don't understand but in this case I'm just going to trust the results and the fact that Bubba's swing is never going to get out of whack because his body wouldn't know how to swing a golf club any other way (not sure if that makes sense which makes it the perfect analysis of Bubba's game).

7. Matt Kuchar because he had the best 2012 scoring average other than the guys who are 1st, 2nd and 3rd on this list (and Jim Furyk - more on him below). Maybe I'm partial to Kuch because he worked-out well for me last year but I look at him the same way I look at Brady, Rodgers and Brees in fantasy football. You know you're going to get about 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns so why roll the dice on a riskier proposition?

8. Dustin Johnson because he's not going to miss almost three months in 2013 with an injury that allegedly occurred while moving a jet ski. (There were many unsubstantiated rumors last year that "moving a jet ski" was a little known euphemism for "puffing the magic dragon" which of course is another way of saying "burning some rope." Even if they aren't true, I'd like to introduce "moving the jet ski" into the Mary Jane lexicon).

9. Lee Westwood because after six top five finishes last year plus a tie for 10th at the U.S. Open when he suffered one of the worst breaks in golf history (his ball disappeared into the top of a tree and never came down), he is beyond overdue for something good to happen. He also moved to Florida which means that (a) he'll be playing in more events, especially early in the year and (b) he can keep driving on the wrong side of the road and no one down there will know the difference.

10. Phil Mickelson because he's only finished lower than 8th on the money list once since 2003 and he's been one of the five best players in the world since the beginning of September (two top 10's in the FedEx Cup, 3-1 in the Ryder Cup and 2nd at the HSBC in China). I originally had Phil 15th because his game appears to be slipping a bit but never underestimate his desire to cash checks. He always seems to raise his game when cash flow starts to get a little light.

11. Luke Donald because, though the talent pool is getting a little deep for him, he still has the consistency to rack-up a $4M+ season as evidenced by his strong showings at the British Open, the Players, the Tour Championship and two WGC events last year. Remember, he's still #2 in the FGR Rankings and the World Golf Rankings and he may be one of those guys who sneaks back in and wins a major after slipping off the radar like Mark O'Meara and Curtis Strange did. (Hmmm . . . need to factor that into Part 3 of the preview).

12. Adam Scott because he's ranked 4th in the FGR Rankings and 5th in the World Golf Rankings and he bounced back from his disastrous British Open to have two top 10's in the FedEx Cup. His limited schedule is an issue but he makes-up for that by always being in contention in at least one major and playing the WGC events well.

Adam Scott would appear to be
the man who has everything
. . . except a major.

13. Brandt Snedeker because he dominated the FedEx Cup last year and I see him riding that momentum into a solid 2013. He has also finished 2nd, 6th and 1st over the last three years in putts per hole and nothing translates into dollars like making a lot of putts. (Feel free to add your own "duh" to that last point).

14. Webb Simpson because I have no idea what to say about ranking a guy this good this low. I had him 16th but then I imagined myself at the draft choosing between him and the next two guys on this list and decided he would be my pick.

15. Louis Oostuizen because when he's on, he is one of the five best players in the world. I was surprised to see that he played 19 times last year because with that many starts, he should have finished higher on the money list but he didn't have a win. That won't be the case this year.

16. Bo Van Pelt because he's too good not to win at least once next year. He's finished 4th, 10th and 7th in the All Around Ranking the past three years which is an indication that he's got the complete package. (The only players to finish ahead of him in that category last year were Bradley, McIlroy and Dufner which is pretty good company as long as Bradley doesn't start droning on about how good the Sawx are going to be next year).

17. Ernie Els because one thing that got lost in his dramatic British Open victory was that he was in position to win three other times including the U.S. Open and his putter failed him. Ernie just turned 43, probably has one more good run in him and he knows it.

18. Nick Watney because last year was a hiccup. Remember that in 2011 he had ten top 10's including five straight to start the season and he won two legit events (the WGC at Doral and the AT&T National). Not to mention, the FGR owes almost half of its readership to Amber Watney.***

"Are the Watney's expecting? Come
on. I need the information now!
On January 4th I'm a dinosaur!"

19. Jason Day because I'm assuming he enjoyed his year off and he's ready to come back and get to work. When a player makes as big a move backwards as Day did in 2012, it's worth trying to figure-out why. In this case, the down year can be attributed at least partly to a bum ankle and the birth of his son. I've played through both and can attest to the fact that they are legitimate excuses for spotty play . . . especially the new baby thing because you don't feel guilty about playing on a bad ankle.

The lesson here is that if you are eyeing up a certain player for the 2013 season, it would probably be worth your time to Google his name+wife+pregnant+expecting and if there is a pending birth, especially between April and September, run the other way as golfers' wives apparently don't buy into the idea of Adrian Balboa postpartum motivational speeches.***

20. Scott Piercy because his win last year finally convinced him that he's one of the best players on tour as evidenced by his second place finish at the HSBC in November.

21. Hunter Mahan because I have no idea where to put him after he won two tournaments in the space of four weeks at the start of last season and then went into golf's version of the fetal position until a tie for 8th at the Tour Championship. After his second win, I thought he might been headed for top five in the world but in his last six tournaments before the TC, he missed the cut twice and his best finish was 39th.

22. Rickie Fowler because until he shows that he can closeout more wins after putting himself in position, he is going to be a high to mid 20's regular on the money list. Case in point: he was in position to win the Memorial after three rounds last year and then closed with an 84 meaning half the ten handicaps in the world shot a better score than he did that Sunday.

Not to hit you while you're
down Jim but reeeally sorry
about your Steelers this year.

23. Zach Johnson because, as discussed above, I don't see him winning twice again this year but he'll probably win at least once. He's currently tied for 12th for most wins by an active player on tour with nine which puts him ahead of K.J. Choi, Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia. If picking Kuchar in the first round is like taking one of the top three quarterbacks, then picking ZJ in the second is like taking Roddy White or Reggie Wayne.

24. Jim Furyk because he is one of the few guys on tour with the mental make-up to bounce back from two of the most devastating meltdowns in recent memory but one thing is for sure, no one who picked him last year is going back for more in 2013.*** Too many flashbacks and nightmares.

25. Bud Cauley because at some point I had to pick a young gun who is going to jump about 20 spots and Cauley looks like that guy.

26. Carl Pettersson because after being an unbelievable non-factor in the majors for the first ten years of his career he got his first taste of contending at the PGA Championship and he finally seems to have figured-out how to be more consistent from week to week.

27. Ian Poulter because, after his Ryder Cup performance and his win in China at the HSBC, he has solidified his reputation as a badass putt making machine. If he played more PGA Tour events, he'd be ten spots higher.

"My teacher's name is Alan Parsons,
therefore my rebuilt swing shall be
called the 'Alan Parsons Project.'"

28. Graeme McDowell because he is going to have better finishes in the WGC events and make a stronger run during the FedEx Cup. G-Mac could be a really strong second round sleeper pick this year. His finishes in the majors last year were T2, T5, T11 and T12. When a gritty player keeps knocking on the door like that, he's going to break through sooner than later.

29. Jonas Blixt because when you putt as well as he does and you have the perfect name for a Bond villain, I need to find a place for you in my top 30.

30. Seung-Yul Noh because he made 24 out of 28 cuts in 2012 and ended the season with 17 in a row. And his name sounds like "soon you'll know" as in "soon you'll know how freakin' good I am."

The Near Misses

Four more players that I had in the top 30 at some point during this process are Bill Haas, Charl Schwartzel, Peter Hanson and Chris Kirk. Haas and Schwartzel are due for bounce back seasons. Hanson is a stud who raises his game for the majors and the WGC events and Kirk was showing signs at the end of 2012 that he's ready to make the leap (and his wife had a baby last year so he should be clear on that front unless Irish birth control is involved).

The Almost Forgotten

Every year there are a half a dozen guys who inexplicably plummet down the money list like they just said "screw practicing this year." Some never make it back up but more often than not, the drop is just one bad season and they finish 20-30 spots higher the following year. Prime candidates for that kind of move in 2013 are Fredrik Jacobson, Aaron Baddeley, Gary Woodland and K.J. Choi.

So that should get you through the first couple rounds and maybe into the third. Remember that the mid to later round picks can be just as valuable as the top two so be on the lookout for 2013's version of John Huh and Marc Leishman. I have a few of those in mind but I'm going to hang onto them until after my draft this week. As James Coburn said in The Baltimore Bullet (a poor man's version of The Color of Money), "I taught you everything you know . . . but I didn't teach you everything I know." Good luck.

Email the FGR

Endnotes

"Who's Amber?"

* In the 2012 Zurich Classic Preview I posted this picture and mistakenly identified the subject as Amber Watney. Now every time Amber Watney makes any news, a thousand people Google her name, stumble onto this picture and are directed to the Fantasy Golf Report. I don't really have a point here other than to say Amber Watney, fantasy golf, Amber Watney, fantasy golf, Amber Watney, fantasy golf . . .

** For the second time in as many days I feel compelled to explain a 30+ year old movie reference. If you have not seen Rocky I and Rocky II, then your sports movie resume has a gaping hole in it (I would also recommend Rocky III but don't go any further than that). Without giving anything away, there is an extended stretch in Rocky II where his wife Adrian is dealing with a life threatening situation during her pregnancy (at some point I think she actually slips into a classic 70's movie coma) and the audience is dealing with the threat that the writers may be screwing-up the easiest sequel in the history of film. That all changes the moment Adrian is out of harm's way and asks Rocky to lean in so she can whisper something to him from her hospital bed:

Adrian: There's one thing I want you to do for me.
Rocky: What?
Adrian: Come 'ere.
Rocky: What?
Adrian: Win . . . . Win.

Cue the orchestra (you may want to put on a sweater before watching this clip because it's about to get a little chilly) - Win . . . Win.

*** Though I'm sure he'd trade the eight top 10 finishes for a second swing at that tee shot on the 16th hole at Olympic (Fore Left!) and a complete do over on the 72nd hole at the Bridgestone.

The 2013 Fantasy Golf Preview: Part 1

"I put it to you Yahoo." 

Isn't it time we came up with a better way to play fantasy golf than some version of trying to pick the winner every week? Isn't the entire basis for the exploding popularity of fantasy sports the fact that we got tired of just betting on who was going to win the games? I put it to you reader. Isn't this an indictment of our entire American society? Well you can do whatever you want to me, but I'm not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America (sorry, got a little carried away).*

Where was I? Right . . . a better way to play fantasy golf. Well I don't know what the rest of you have been doing for the past fifteen years but, since 1997,** I've been tweaking, tinkering and generally massaging the greatest fantasy golf format known to man (or at least known to me). Here are three reasons why you're going to love it: (1) There is a draft and anytime you can add a fantasy draft night to your calendar, it's a good thing, (2) you actually get a team of players for the season with whom you can bond or, in the case of Paul Goydos at the practice round for the 1997 U.S. Open, walk with and attempt to inspire with some good natured pep talk until it starts to border on stalking,*** (3) once you draft your team, you can put as much or as little effort as you want into managing it during the season because there is no obligation to make picks every week.

Here's how it works:

1. Each team drafts six players and no two players can be on the same team. A draft for a 12 team league takes about an hour.

"Hey, where did all of my
imaginary friends go?"

2. The draft order is selected randomly on draft night but instead of doing a simple six round serpentine draft, the order goes as follows based on a 12 team league:**** 1-12, 12-1, 12-1, 1-12, 12-1, 1-12. So the team that picks last in the first round picks first in rounds two, three and five. This is necessary based on the decided advantage of being able to pick from players like Tiger and Rory in the first round versus guys like Brandt Snedeker and Webb Simpson.

With the exception of 2010 which was a year of parity, history has shown that the top players regularly earn 75% to 100% more than the players in the 10-12 range. Re-working the draft order balances this out a little bit by giving the teams at the bottom more depth. Using last year's money list as an example, this means that, instead of the team with the top pick getting Rory, Lee Westwood and Adam Scott, they would get Rory, Lee Westwood and Martin Laird which meant about a $900,000 difference in earnings but it also meant that the team with the #1 pick wouldn't get three of the top nine favorites to win the Masters.

3. During the season, teams are free to drop and add players at anytime except while that week's tournament(s) are being played. Free agent activity peaks before the majors when non-eligible players are dropped for guys like Nicholas Colsaerts, Peter Hanson and, in more desperate cases, Robert Rock and Branden Grace. Then after the tournament, everyone races to re-add the tour grinders like Ken Duke and John Rollins looking to pick-up a couple of top 10's. This year we added a waiver system that runs for two days after the end of the tournament so as to avoid an email race to pick-up last week's winner. The team that picked last in the draft starts at the top of the order and then every time a team makes a claim, they drop to the bottom. Players can be dropped and added on Wednesdays with no impact on the waiver wire because if you haven't made your move by then, too bad.

4. The team with the most combined money earned in each event wins it along with a little something for the effort. The entry fee for the leagues I run is about the same as the price of a Callaway RAZR Fit Driver ($299.99) which is also the same amount you win if your team takes a major. Each transaction costs as much as a sleeve of Pro V's which is also what you win for a run of the mill tournament like the John Deere Classic. Winnings for the other tournaments are based on their relative importance with the WGC events and the Players coming in at about half of what a major is worth. The remainder of the pot goes to the overall combined money winners at the end of the season depending on how many spots you want to reward.

So that's the basic format. To give you an idea of what a winning squad looks like, here are the final rosters from the two winning teams in my leagues from last year with the position where each player was drafted (15 teams in each league):

Moore is still on my undraftable list because I can't take
his body language for a full season but I rolled the dice
on him for the FedEx Cup and he actually came through.

League 1

1. Rory McIlroy (4th)
2. Bo Van Pelt (27th)
3. Charlie Wi (FA)
4. Cameron Tringale (FA)
5. Sang Moon Bae (72nd)
6. Bud Cauley (79th)

League 2

1. Matt Kuchar (8th)
2. Zach Johnson (23rd)
3. Bo Van Pelt (38th)
4. Kevin Na (53rd)
5. Brian Davis (FA)
6. Ryan Moore (FA)

The League 1 winner drafted Anthony Kim 3rd and Camillo Villegas 4th proving that you can make-up for even the most egregious mistakes if you pull the plug early enough (and if you have the tour's leading money winner). The League 2 team was mine and I had originally drafted Vijay Singh in the 5th round and Scott Piercy in the 6th but dropped Piercy in late February which was obviously a mistake.***** The lesson there is that I could have sat on my originally drafted team of Kuchar, ZJ, Van Pelt, Na, Singh and Piercy and won the league from the 8th spot proving that it doesn't necessarily matter where you pick or how much you churn your roster throughout the season.

In addition to winning a big chunk of the overall pot for finishing first, I got paid handsomely for Kuchar's win at the Players plus a couple other small paydays for ZJ's two wins. I also had two players in the mix at Augusta (Kuchar and Peter Hanson) which enhanced the experience of watching what was already one of the best majors in recent memory. Under this format, you are almost guaranteed to get that at least once or twice a season but if you're picking one or two players per week, you may never have a guy get Sunday airtime at a major.

Now for the downside. I have yet to discover a website that offers this format so we still do it all manually using old fashioned spreadsheets and weekly emailed updates. At this point, I'm not sure I'd switch to a website because the weekly updates (which were the inspiration for the FGR) provide a great opportunity for Jim Furyk owners to vent after he ruins another Sunday for them. Besides, it's not much work once you set it up because all you're doing is rolling down the tournament results and entering the dollars on the spreadsheet. You also avoid the inevitable hassle of website glitches or people failing to understand the transaction process. You will, however, need an Excel guy to set-up the sheet the right way and I am not that guy as I keep recycling the same one our league's co-founder devised about ten years ago. (If you want to see what it looks like, email me here - Email the FGR).

"Always hit through the ball."

So there you have it. Don't feel like you need to rush out and put together a league between now and the Tournament of Champions. A better place to start may actually be the Northern Trust on February 14th because that's one of the first loaded fields and it's a week before the Accenture Match Play when the season really gets rolling. It takes a little work to get started but, revisiting my ancient movie reference, "don't think of it as work . . . the whole point is just to enjoy yourself."

(Coming tomorrow - Part 2: The PGA Tour Preseason Top 30).

Endnotes

* This of course is a reference to the classic disciplinary council scene in Animal House, one of the five funniest movies ever made. I never thought I would feel compelled to explain an Animal House reference until it dawned on me that the movie came out 34 years ago which means that it is ten years older than some of my readers. Explained another way, an Animal House reference to a 24 year old is the equivalent of a Some Like it Hot reference for me. I'm going to stop there before I ponder the question of whether a 24 year old would find Animal House as unfunny as I found the first 45 minutes of Some Like it Hot (because that's all I could take).

** I know it was 1997 because I drafted Tiger as a rookie with the 6th overall pick and every year I email the five guys who passed on him a friendly reminder of their mistake (not really . . . but only because I can't remember who those five guys were other than the one who took Steve Jones #1 overall and I do make sure that comes-up in conversation whenever possible . . .  and yes, I too marvel at the fact that the FGW voluntarily married me).

*** That wasn't me but I was there when it happened. For the record, Goydos doesn't really like being repeatedly called "Pauly Kid."

Not that kind of talent pool.

**** You can have as many teams as you want but 15 is probably the max before the talent pool gets overly diluted.

***** I actually had the foresight to take Piercy 6th in both leagues and the ineptitude to drop him in both leagues but, in one of them, I dropped him for Ernie Els which almost made-up for my drafting Jason Day one spot ahead of Rory McIlroy. And by "almost" I mean "not remotely close." The memory of that still stings.