The Week 9 NFL Picks

We had Dan Fouts for 15 years and 
NOW we make it to the Super Bowl?!?

One final word on the importance of having a great (not good) quarterback if your team has genuine championship aspirations (and I count about 14 teams who could make that claim with a straight face - sorry Falcons fans, I saw you smirk).  Of the last twenty Super Bowl winners, four did not have a quarterback who is either in the Hall of Fame (Elway, Aikman and Young), going to be in the Hall of Fame (P. Manning, Brady, Favre, Warner and Roethlisberger (as much as it pains me to say it)) or making a strong case for the Hall of Fame (Brees and Rodgers).  So you can take your shot with Eli Manning, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson or Mark Rypien but you better have a world class defense and you better hope you don't run into one of those HOF guys on the other side.  As the teams with Stan Humphries, Neil O'Donnell, Drew Bledsoe, Chris Chandler, Steve McNair, Jake Delhomme, Donovan McNabb, Matt Hassleback and Rex Grossman found out, you don't want to bring a knife (or in the case of Stan Humphries, a pillow) to a gun fight.  On to the picks:


Atlanta by 7 over Indy:  The Pick - Falcons


The Falcons posted solid wins over the Panthers and Lions before the bye and may prove to be a factor in the playoffs after all (if you can call losing in the first round being a "factor").  Meanwhile, Jim Irsay is doing everything but tweeting pictures of Andrew Luck wearing a Colts jersey. 


New Orleans by 8 over Tampa Bay:  The Pick - Bucs

"Did Sean call yet?"

The Bucs have only played one game where the margin was more than 7 points either way (of course the margin in that game was 45 but who's counting?)  They have the ability to bring the other team down to their level of mediocrity like a bad hockey team or Pat Riley's Knicks.  I also think Drew Brees is really starting to miss having Sean Payton on the sidelines.  Not in a football way but more in a Starsky and Hutch kind of way.               


Houston by 11 over Cleveland:  The Pick - Texans


That's a big number to cover but the Browns are suffering from that rare combination of having almost no talent and being dysfunctional at the same time.  Someone needs to tell them that having talent is a prerequisite to being dysfunctional otherwise ESPN won't even send a reporter to your town. 


Buffalo by 1.5 over the New York Jets:  The Pick - Jets


I don't have any evidence to support this but there seems to be a correlation between Rex Ryan shutting his pie hole and the Jets playing good football and we haven't heard much from Rex since he spouted off about Norv Turner two weeks ago.  The Bills need to score a lot of points to win (unless they're playing the Redskins) and I don't see that happening this week.   


Kansas City by 4 over Miami:  The Pick - Chiefs


We may need to start considering the possibility that Todd Haley is a good coach.  He lost his best offensive player and one of his best defensive players at the start of a season where his team lost their first two games by a combined 78 points.  Did he panic?  No.  Did he change the game plan?  No.  He just started acting like the Unibomber and the next thing you know they're 4-3.  He's crafty.        


San Francisco by 3.5 over Washington:  The Pick - 49ers

"We traded what for McNabb?
You're kidding right?"

Exhibit "A" for why you never trade high draft picks for veterans - the Redskins starting backfield is John Beck and Ryan Torrain and their best wide receiver is Jabbar Gaffney meanwhile their 2nd round pick from 2010 and their 4th round pick from 2011 are sitting on the bench in Minnesota and their 3rd round pick from 2006 and their 4th round pick from 2007 are catching passes in St. Louis.  Not a good sign when Terrell Owens would be your best receiver as soon as he walked through the door.                  


Dallas by 11.5 over Seattle:  The Pick - Seahawks


The Cowboys played five games where the largest margin of victory was four points and then they won 34-7 and lost 34-7.  Factor in that you have Tony Romo against a potential combination of Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst and you might want to put your money at risk somewhere a bit safer, like Libyan real estate.      


Oakland by 7.5 over Denver:  The Pick - Raiders


As a quarterback who is resisting his natural urge to run so he can show people that he is a pocket passer, Tim Tebow has to be a defensive coordinator's dream.  It's like playing against a much less accurate Scott Mitchell.  Let's just hope the Raiders fans don't get so carried away mocking Tebow that they accidentally light the fuse on the Apocalypse.    


Tennessee by 3 over Cincinnati:  The Pick - Bengals

"Let me think that one over for a 
minute and...get out of my store."  

I'm riding the Bengals until someone proves they are a fluke (and until the reverse jinx takes effect).  I was offered Chris Johnson and Matt Schaub for Aaron Rodgers this week.  In the words of the Comic Book Guy from The Simpsons, "that offer reminded me of Hi and Lois because it made me laugh."    


Arizona by 3.5 over St. Louis:  The Pick - Rams


These two teams have each won one game.  The Cardinals won their first and the Rams won their last.  I'm going with the team riding the winning streak.  Maybe CBS will send Gus Johnson to do this game to ensure it at least ends on a pick six in overtime.      


New England by 8.5 over the New York Giants:  The Pick - Giants


The Patriots haven't played one game this year that would indicate they can cover 8.5 against a decent team.  If you're the Tom Coughlin, don't you invite David Tyree to come up and hang around during warm-ups reenacting his helmet catch over and over and over again?  That would be hilarious until Belichik signaled the sniper.


Green Bay by 5.5 over San Diego:  The Pick - Packers

"Who likes putting on a tuxedo
after work on a Monday? I do!"

I didn't see much of the game Monday night because I was walking around the neighborhood in a tuxedo trying to pull of the Penguin from Batman which completely worked except that I'm 5'8, 160 pounds and bald so I ended-up looking like the guy from the Six Flags commercial wearing a top hat.  Did I mention that my wife really likes Halloween?  Anyway, what I did see of the Chargers indicated to me that we may finally be nearing the final act of the Norv era which is coming about three season later than most of us predicted so good for Norv.    


Pittsburgh by 3 over Baltimore:  The Pick - Ravens


The Steelers are playing better football right now and the Ravens are struggling to find their offensive identity (again) but (a) The Steelers' linebackers are all banged-up which should give Ray Rice some opportunities to make a couple of cool Ray Rice plays (like catch a one-handed screen pass, break four tackles and go for 50 yards), (b) the Ravens would love to see Roethlisberger throw it 50 times like he did against the Patriots because that would give Terrell Suggs and Jarrett Johnson 50 chances to hit him, and (c) there is a lot more pressure on the Steelers to win this game because they lost the first one and their schedule the rest of the way is tougher with road games at San Francisco and Kansas City.  Then again, I reserve the right to change my pick if the Steelers get the ball down by 3 with more than 1:30 on the clock (and now I will replace that image in my head with something more pleasant, "I'm sitting in the dentist chair now, the shrill whining of the drill begins and......").      


Philadelphia by 8 over Chicago:  The Pick - Bears


These are two teams that appear to be getting their acts together.  If this quote is any indication, Jay Cutler even seems to be winning over some of his teammates.  "He's a lot more outgoing, just more comfortable now,'' said Brian Urlacher who added, "we haven't even given him a swirly since training camp."  (The fact that any of that quote is accurate is surprising).  Strong defensive teams like the Bears always give Michael Vick trouble because of their radical game plans which include (a) covering his receivers and (b) slamming him on the ground.     


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We've Got Nowhere Else to Go!

Exhibit "A".

I've taken some heat for being a little too critical of Joe Flacco, Cam Cameron and the Ravens' offense which kind of took me off guard considering their recent six quarter - 13 point malaise against the Jags and the Cardinals which evoked memories of the 2000 season when they went five straight games without a touchdown.  They won the Super Bowl that year with Tony Banks and Trent Dilfer completing 57% of their passes for 20 touchdowns and 19 interceptions and their best wide receiver was Qadry Ismail who caught 49 passes for 655 yards.  (Pretty strong opening argument for the "Best Defense of All Time" debate).  This year's offense is starting to look eerily like the 2000 version but maybe I'm wrong and there is more reason for optimism than I'm seeing (wouldn't be the first time).  Let's break it down and find out.

Let me preface this by saying that criticizing Flacco and Cameron is made somewhat difficult by the fact that they are both good guys.  If anyone is going to lead the Ravens to the Super Bowl, we want it to be them.  Unfortunately, we are losing faith that we can answer the question "can we win a Super Bowl with this guy?" in the affirmative.  Here is why we are growing less optimistic:

Joe Flacco's career playoff stats (starting with the most recent loss to the Steelers):

• 2011 - Divisional Round against the Steelers: 16-30 for 125 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception (and the interception was a second half momentum shifting killer);
• 2011 - Wild Card Round against the Chiefs:  25-34 for 265 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions (only playoff game with 200+ yards or multiple touchdowns);
• 2010 - Divisional Round against the Colts: 20-35 for 189 yards with no touchdowns and 2 interceptions;
• 2010 - Wild Card Round against the Patriots: 4-10 for 34 yards with no touchdowns and 1 interception (something of an aberration game as the Ravens ran the Patriots off the field and picked Brady 3 times);



"Oh sweet mercy we're
in the shotgun again."

• 2009 - AFC Championship Game against the Steelers: 13-30 for 141 yards with no touchdowns and 3 interceptions (not holding this one against him playing as a rookie on the road against the best team in football that year);
• 2009 - Divisional Round against the Titans: 11-22 for 161 yards with 1 touchdown and no interceptions (he also made a great pass to Todd Heap on the game winning drive that made Ravens fans think "we may have something here");
• 2009 - Wild Card Round against the Dolphins: 9-23 for 135 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions.

So these are the facts. Joe Flacco has played in seven playoff games (all on the road) and he's thrown for more than 200 yards once. He has thrown for 2 touchdowns once, 1 touchdown twice and 0 touchdowns in the other four games for a total of 4. If you were to prorate that for a 16 game season, it would give him 9 and he would not have a job the following year. His average playoff stats are 98-184 (53%) for 150 yards with 4 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Those are pretty comparable to Kyle Boller's 2007 stats except that Boller had a better completion percentage and TD/INT ratio. I'm just sayin'.

In a league where the last eight titles have been won by guys named Brady, Roethlisberger, Manning, Rodgers and Brees, your quarterback has to be at least above average for 3-4 straight games in the playoffs to win it all and, considering the playoff runs of Rodgers and Brees the last two years, that might not even cut it anymore. Brees had 8 touchdowns and no picks in 2009 and Rodgers had 9 touchdowns and 2 picks in 2010 along with 2 rushing touchdowns. I won't compare Rodgers' Super Bowl stats to Flacco's against the Steelers two weeks earlier because that would be overkill. Let's just say that if Flacco had played half as well as Rodgers, the Ravens would have hosted the Jets in the AFC Championship game the following week and yes, I am still bitter.

The problem is that there are no signs of improvement this year.  You can blame the offensive line (maybe), the lockout (you'd be reaching) or the loss of Mason and Heap (just stop it) but the fact is that Flacco is having the worst season of his career in his 4th year when he should be peaking.  In their loss to the Titans, he was 15-32 for 197 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions.  Against the Jags last week, he was 21-37 for 137 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception.  In their win versus the Jets where the defense scored three touchdowns, he was 10-31 for 163 yards with no touchdowns and 1 interception (a pick six to let the Jets back into the game before Mark Sanchez said "oh yeah?" and threw one of his own to seal it).  That is three colossal turds Flacco has dropped in seven games.

The other problem facing Flacco and Cameron (and consequently John Harbaugh and general manager Ozzie Newsome) is that in Baltimore, the Ravens are all we've got so they need to figure this out while under a 365 day 24/7 full court press by the local fans.  The Orioles are dead to most of us and we have no NBA or NHL team.  (Try to start an NBA conversation in this town and people will look at you like you just declared that Brian Boitano is absolutely the most underrated figure skater of all time).  The full extent of our rooting interests goes like this:  (1) our kids' little league teams, (2) the Ravens and (3) Michael Phelps.  That's it.  That's the list.
  

"We've got nowhere else to go!!!"

So there is a lot riding on Sunday night's game against the Steelers because history has shown us that it will decide home field advantage for the inevitable rematch in the playoffs.  Is there a movie that details our plight?  (Isn't there always). For this one we've got to dig deep and go back to 1982 to find Richard Gere fighting his past and Louis Gossett, Jr. to turn his life into something meaningful in An Officer and a Gentleman.  This clip pretty much explains why Ravens fans keep coming back for more abuse at the hands of the Steelers: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tPJwirRWng&feature=related.  

In fact the whole movie works pretty well as a Ravens-Steelers/Gere-Gossett, Jr. analogy from the opening inspection (Flacco's rookie season) to the climactic fight scene where Gere had Gossett on the ropes and was going for the knockout when Gossett suddenly ended it with the kick that made every man in the theatre shift in his seat (Polamalu's 2010 strip sack touchdown).  Gere comes back to graduate and gets the girl and I would like nothing more than for life to imitate art and have Joe Flacco beats the odds, walk into that paper plant, pick-up the Lombardi Trophy and carry Ravens fans to a better life while jealous Orioles fans yell, "Way to go Ravens!  Way to go!"

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Roadhouse Blues

I finally broke .500 (barely) despite the fact that at halftime of the early games, the Saints, Giants and Ravens were losing to the Rams, Dolphins and Cardinals by a combined score of 55-16 which meant they were 75 points away from covering.  None of them did but at least the Giants and Ravens managed to come back and win at home.  In the Ravens case, it was a matter of Joe Flacco looking at offensive coordinator Cam Cameron like Merle from Hoosiers and saying "I think Anquan can beat the guy who's guarding him if we set him up" (which is apparently pretty close to how it actually went down).  So Cameron needed his players to point out that when their Pro Bowl wide receiver (who is built like a linebacker and once came back and played in the same season in which he had 40 titanium screws put in his face) is single covered, they should just throw it to him and see if he can outfight the cornerback for it.  Sometimes I think Cameron would turn Calvin Johnson into the greatest possession receiver since Wayne Chrebet if given the opportunity.             

"Allow me to rip your
heart out Baltimore."

Now we just need to figure out why it took Cameron six quarters to figure out that a no huddle quick strike attack might be the way to go when (a) your offensive line is struggling, and (b) your quarterback has the pocket presence of an antelope crossing six lanes of rush hour traffic.  Suffice it to say that Ravens fans are giddy with anticipation for the Cameron/Dick LeBeau battle of wits after LeBeau went Gary Kasparov on Tom Brady last Sunday.  Personally, I can't wait for the multiple replays of Polamalu's strip sack on Flacco last year that decided the division and gave the Steelers home field advantage for the rematch in the playoffs.  Here's a pretty accurate dramatic reenactment of that game with the part of the Steelers being played by Patrick Swayze - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaPeVFKCf1E&feature=related

A few other notes from last weekend:

The red tie suits you Jim.

1.  The Redskins look like they want a piece of the Andrew Luck action but they've already spotted the Colts three games and have therefore almost mathematically eliminated themselves.  Leave it to an Irsay owned team to go 0-16 in a year when that's a good thing.  How many times is the devil going to let them refinance?     

2.  I'm not going so far as to say that John Fox wants Tim Tebow to fail but let's just say he has no incentive to see him win.  I subscribe to the theory that every quarterback should be judged based on one simple question, "can we win the Super Bowl with this guy?"  If the answer is "no", you need to find a new guy.  (Cut to every Jets, Ravens, Bears, Cowboys and Falcons fan pondering the answer to that question like Jester when Viper asked him (about Maverick) "if you had to go into battle, would you want him with you?".......Jester's response - "I don't know, I just don't know.")  

“Life sucks, get a helmet okay.”

3.  Speaking of Tebow, whether you're outraged by the way the Lions mocked him on Sunday or you find yourself more in the Denis Leary camp, ("Jesus must be thinking even Judas had a better release than this guy"), you have to love the way the Lions are stepping-up as the modern version of the 70's and 80's Raiders in the wake of Al Davis' death.   Gordon Thiessen, the director for training and resources for the Nebraska Fellowship of Christian Athletes (and I'm guessing not a big Denis Leary fan), said it best, "I think the linebacker for the Lions was attempting to not mock God, but to mock Tebow and have fun with it, but it was still in bad taste and inappropriate, at best."  Yes it was and the league was a little more entertaining last weekend because of it.    

4.  If you actually do wager on these games, you need to avoid the Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, Titans, Panthers and Vikings.  They all have one or two offensive and/or defensive freaks who can singlehandedly swing a game either way and quarterbacks with a margin of error wider than a North Korean presidential election poll.  If I'm going down, I'll do it with one of the Big Four (Rodgers, Brady, Brees or Roethlisberger) or a guy I feel like I can trust like Ryan Fitzpatrick or Andy Dalton (wincing at the thought of him outplaying Joe Flacco for the next ten years).  Think of it like this.  The elevator ride with Glen Close seems like a good idea until you find the rabbit on the stove.          




              

The Week 8 NFL Picks

"Do you know if this blog
is pager friendly?  I'm not
getting a sig on my beeper."

Hello.  How 'bout those picks last week.  I guess that's why they call this the Fantasy Golf Report.  You might not know this, but I consider myself a bit of a loner.  I tend to think of myself as a one-man wolf pack.  So far that's gotten me nowhere so this week I decided to rip-off other people's picks until I found out guys like Peter King didn't even break .500 picking the games straight-up (a useless endeavor).  I am therefore going to take one more whack at this on my own and hope that at least SOME of the quarterbacks on the teams I pick bother to show-up for work (I think he's talking to yoooouuuu Flacco).   


Tennessee by 9 over Indy:  The Pick - Titans

These two teams lost by a combined score of 103-14 last week which coincidentally was the average score of Brittney Griner's high school basketball games (you're damn right I just worked a women's college basketball reference into the equation...everything is on the table this week!)  I'm picking the Titans because their margin of defeat was 21 points less than the Colts.  Welcome to the post-Manning AFC South. 

Houston by 9.5 over Jacksonville:  The Pick - Texans

You know how some rookie quarterbacks just come right in and have "it" and by "it" I mean the ability to flinch at the first sign of pressure.  David Carr and Tim Couch had "it" and unfortunately for the Jags, it appears Blaine Gabbert might have "it" too.  Meanwhile, the Texans survived a brutal four game stretch (at Saints, Steelers, Raiders, at Ravens) and now look like they might be able to live-up to the high expectations everyone had for them coming into this year....and last year....and the year before that.     

Carolina by 3.5 over Minnesota:  The Pick - Panthers

"I gotta have more Cam Newton baby!"

The 26th and 30th ranked scoring defenses squaring-off against rookie quarterbacks.  In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king and before he's done, Cam Newton is going to be wearing gold plated diapers ("What does that mean?......NEVER QUESTION BRUCE DICKINSON!!!)   

New Orleans by 13 over St. Louis:  The Pick - Saints

The Saints lead the league in scoring at 34.1 points per game and the Rams are last at 9.3 and would have only covered a 13 point spread twice this year (in fact, they would have only covered a 17.5 point spread twice this year).  I'm pretty sure the Rams would be the first team in history to pick a quarterback #1 overall twice in three years but wouldn't they have to cut bait with Bradford if given the chance?  They could always trade him to the Raiders for their next available first round pick which I think is in 2017.   

Baltimore by 13 over Arizona:  The Pick - Ravens


Mike Wilbon said on PTI that everyone who has ever lived in Baltimore should be embarrassed by the way the Ravens played on Monday night.  (He's right.  I haven't been that embarrassed since I tried jumping a tennis net in high school and came up about an inch short which is apparently all you need to take the net down with you).  If that's the case, then everyone who has ever eaten a crab cake, watched  And Justice for All or had syphilis (read The Tipping Point or just Google "Baltimore syphilis") should be embarrassed if the Ravens lose to the Cardinals.                

NY Giants by 10 over Miami:  The Pick - Giants

"You may be a member of the Miami
Dolphins much longer than you think
Mr.  Moore....if you're not careful."

One of these horrible road teams is going to cover the big number but I'm going to play the percentages and pick against all of them.  The Dolphins put up a good fight last week until Matt Moore got a visit from the owner who reminded him that (a) there is only one Andrew Luck in next year's draft, and (b) that it was "Tim Tebow Day" (which was kind of odd for a Dolphin home game).  Picture the halftime talk between Eddie Albert and Burt Reynolds in "The Longest Yard" (the 1974 version, not the 2005 Adam Sandler steaming pile of cr....)

Buffalo by 6 over Washington:  The Pick - Bills

When you start the season featuring Rex Grossman, Tim Hightower and Santana Moss on offense and then you downgrade to John Beck, Ryan Torrain and Jabar Gaffney, you are officially in a "we just lost engine 3" situation.  We should be able to identify every vein in Mike Shanahan's forehead at his press conferences by the end of the year.     

Detroit by 2.5 over Denver:  The Pick - Lions

"Don't worry Urban, I've got you."

My only concern here is that the Broncos are going to be down by 9 on the last play of the game and Tim Tebow is going to drop back for a Hail Mary and then take off up the field as time expires slamming into every Lions' defender on his way into the endzone even though none of them are trying to tackle him.  Then he will scream in rage, leap in the air and start circling the Earth until time reverses itself so he can come back, pull Urban Meyer out of a crevice, replay the fourth quarter and win the game.   

New England by 3 over Pittsburgh:  The Pick - Steelers

I hope I'm wrong but how do you not take 3 points and the Steelers at home?  That was painful to write.  I need to move on.        

San Francisco by 8.5 over Cleveland:  The Pick - 49ers

The Browns might be the worst 3-3 team in the history of the league.  They've beaten the Colts, Dolphins and Seahawks by a combined 8 points and they don't have a top 20 quarterback, a top 30 running back or a top 40 wide receiver.  If you want to argue that Peyton Hillis is a top 30 running back then I'm sorry you picked him in the second round and ignored the obvious warning signs like the injury history, the fumbles and the fact that he looks like a roiled-up version of Nick Lachey.

Cincinnati by 3 over Seattle:  The Pick - Bengals

The Bengals get what should be a layup before they go through a six week stretch where we'll find out if they're for real.  Seattle's dream of repeating as a 7-9 division champion appears to have been dashed by their 2-4 start and the fact that Jim Harbaugh refused to go along with Pete Carroll's plan at the NFC West coach's meeting:  "Jim this is how it works.  No one tries too hard.  We all suck.  Everyone gets to keep their job.  Are you in?"

Philadelphia by 3.5 over Dallas:  The Pick - Cowboys

"What is that thing in the sky
with all of those zeroes on it?"

I'd love to hear someone try to make a compelling argument for picking between two otherwise evenly matched teams with Tony Romo and Michael Vick playing quarterback.  (Really, I'd love to because I have no idea who to pick).  I'm going to guess that Romo and Vick turn it over twice and cancel each other out and go with the Cowboys getting the 3.5 points.  Not to mention, I still can't get that image of Andy Reid staring at the clock at the end of the first half in Buffalo after he ran a play with 6 seconds left and time expired as Vick's pass was sailing out of the back of the endzone.  It was as if he was staring at a U.F.O.           

San Diego by 3.5 over Kansas City:  The Pick - Chargers

Now that Antonio Gates is back hobbling around the field like Fred Sanford, the Chargers are due for a 30+ point breakout.  Matt Cassel's no touchdown two pick game last week went virtually unnoticed because Kyle Boller and Carson Palmer were too busy tripling that effort and doing everything but actually rolling Al Davis over in his grave.  (Editor's Note: Back before we learned that Ozzie Newsome's Achilles heel was drafting quarterbacks, I sent an email to Peter King after Kyle Boller's rookie year comparing him to Brett Favre.  Just thought I should disclose that in case you were actually using this information to wager real money).   

Last week:  4-8-1 . . . .  Season: 10-14-2.  We can build on this!