Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Fantasy Golf: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview

I would like an explanation for why this tournament has to suck as an entertainment product. You have one of the most beautiful golf courses in the world and celebrities playing with pros. Just invite some relevant funny people who can play a little golf, mike them up and get the fuck out of the way. How hard would that be? Instead, here is your line-up of "talent" that will go through the same hackneyed on course bits that we've been treated to since Bill Murray's antics were still considered novel.

Alfonso Ribeiro: He's the actor who fell ass-backward into two piles of money playing the  sidekicks of Ricky Schroder in Silver Spoons and Will Smith in The Fresh Prince of Bel Air. Other than doing The Carlton Dance on the green at Pebble Beach which is never not forced and unfunny, he has not had a performing role since 2015 and he has not had a performing role in anything you've heard of since . . . scrolling . . . scrolling . . . The Fresh Prince of Bel Air

  

Tom Dreesen: Tom's claim to fame is actually a good one as he teamed-up with WKRP in Cincinnati's Tim Reid (a/k/a Venus Flytrap) to form the first biracial stand-up comedy duo in 1968 called Tim and Tom. Apparently it didn't work despite all of the creative energy they devoted to naming the act but I applaud the effort which may have been just a few years ahead of its time . . . like twenty. Back in the 70's Dreesen would open for Frank Sinatra and he appeared regularly on the Match Game which is another underrated career stop. But from there it looks like nothing but bit part acting roles in things like Murder She Wrote and Touched by an Angel which is what people who are now in their 70's used to fall asleep to on Sunday nights after being regaled by Andy Rooney. Apparently Jackie Mason has developed the yips and refuses to play.  

Larry the Cable Guy: No. Just no.

Ray Romano: At least he's still relevant having starred in what looks like a solid T.V. version of Get Shorty with the all-world Chris O'Dowd but doesn't it feel like Ray has grown-out of this event having been briefly funny with Kevin James for a year or two before they both got so rich that they didn't give a fuck anymore? Why not invite Chris O'Dowd to play? He's Irish which means that he probably has some game and it might be like getting to watch a somewhat self-aware David Feherty again.               

The only celebrity playing who I want to see with a microphone anywhere near him is Michael Pena because he makes every movie he's in better. Specifically The Martian which is the greatest movie ever made if your criteria is how often I land on it for way longer than I should considering how many times I've already seen it. Of course, using that criteria, the greatest movie of all-time before The Martian was Big Trouble in Little China so there you go. 

"I was told that someone emailed
Condoleezza Rice but we got an
out of office reply. So we tried."
Oh yeah one more thing before I get to the expert analysis. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am website features twenty-five celebrities including the ones I mentioned above, a bunch of athletes, some other actors, a chef and a slew of country music people (to play music that this crowd will look only slightly less awkward dancing to) but you know what they all have in common? They're all dudes. Sure there are some ladies in the amateur field (at least I hope there are) but none worthy of a celebrity mention on the website. Way to read the room fellas. You could have at least invited Bea Arthur's dick.  

Ok enough snark. Let's get golfy.

The last two weeks I have correctly advised away from picking the favorites (Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy) and pointed you in the direction of the winners (Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler). Well that changes this week as one of the two overwhelming favorites (Dustin Johnson and Jason Day) is going to win this damn thing or die trying. Since 2008 when D.J. finished tied for 7th, he has added two wins, two runner-ups and three other top fives. The only reason you don't pick D.J. this week is because you (a) burned him in Hawaii or (b) want to save him for Riviera next week or the U.S. Open which will be back at Pebble Beach in June. There are no other valid reasons and no you may not save him for the FedEx St. Jude Classic because he's won it twice. If you pull that crap, I will find you and mock you when he finishes tied for 37th.  

If you do decide to go with Plan B, then Jason Day is a very respectable option. During that same 2008 - 2018 timeframe he has six top six finishes at the AT&T including a runner-up last year. The only issue could be some dicey weather and Jason's propensity to feel poopy. The forecast is currently calling for temps in the 50's and rain on Friday and Sunday. That means a long soft golf course which is good but it could also mean cold and flu symptoms. Stay tuned on this one because I may call a Twitter audible to Shane Lowry who is made of Gore-Tex.

We're going with a high/low theme this week as I don't see a lot of value in that Russell Henley, Charley Hoffman, Ted Potter, Jr. range (though I am intrigued by the prospects of Doug Ghim). Once you get past Brandt Snedeker at $8,200, you might as well go bargain hunting with Chesson Hadley, Scott Stallings and Jimmy Walker who had a stellar run here from 2011 through 2014 including a win before he struggled with illness. Last year he posted a tie for 8th despite entering the week on a run of three missed cuts and a tie for 68th so golf on the peninsula tends to bring out the best in him.    

As for the clearance rack players, I was so tempted to go with Davis Love, III at $6,700 because he''s won this event twice and he just finished 7th at the Sony Open but his best finish before that was a tie for 57th and last year he only made the cut in five out of twelve events so let's not get carried away. Patrick Rodgers is intriguing because he's got top five ability. Unfortunately he's three times more likely to miss the cut. Brian Gay or James Hahn is going to finish top twenty and the other one is going to finish tied for 57th. Fuck it. I'm going with Jame Hahn. Sabermetrics baby! (I don't think that means what you think it means).    

My 2019 mission in life is to play Pebble.
So let it be written, so let it be done.
One and Done Pick: Jason Day

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jordan Spieth

Sleeper Pick: Jimmy Walker

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Dustin Johnson
$11,400
Jason Day
$10,900
Jordan Spieth
$9,400
Chez Reavie
$9,000
Shane Lowry
$8,800
Brandt Snedeker
$8,200
Chesson Hadley
$7,100
Jimmy Walker
$7,100
Scott Stallings
$7,100
James Hahn
$6,800

It's hard to find much consistency below the top tier at this event but if you want two more guys who might score you a top twenty or even a backdoor top ten, check-out Pat Perez and Kevin Streelman . . . two guys who have never had a similar Sunday morning in their entire lives.  
                         THE VALVOLINE ADVANCED FULL SYNTHETIC 
                                 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART


DK Price
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Dustin Johnson
$11,400
T2
3rd
T41
T4
T2nd
Jason Day
$10,900
T2
T5
T11
T4
T64
Tony Finau
$10,600
DNP
T23
DNP
DNP
DNP
Tommy Fleetwood
$10,300
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Matt Kuchar
$10,000
T62
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
Patrick Cantlay
$9,800
T35
T48
DNP
DNP
DNP
Phil Mickelson
$9,600
T2
65th
2nd
DNP
T19
Jordan Spieth
$9,400
T20
1st
T21
T7
T4
Patrick Reed
$9,300
MC
T23
T6
T29
T13
Adam Scott
$9,200
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Paul Casey
$9,100
T8
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Chez Reavie
$9,000
T2
MC
T26
MC
DNP
Branden Grace
$8,900
T20
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Shane Lowry
$8,800
T43
T14
T41
T21
DNP
Adam Hadwin
$8,700
DNP
T39
DNP
DNP
DNP
Matt Fitzpatrick
$8,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jason Kokrak
$8,500
T35
T23
T30
MC
T19
Sungjae Im
$8,400
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
$8,300
T26
DNP
DNP
DNP
T64
Brandt Snedeker
$8,200
T20
4th
T35
1st
MC
Russell Knox
$8,100
T15
DNP
MC
DNP
T27
Andrew Putnam
$7,900
MC
DNP
DNP
MC
DNP
J.B. Holmes
$7,900
MC
T23
T11
T10
T61
Scott Piercy
$7,800
T20
T55
DNP
DNP
DNP
Doug Ghim
$7,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Russell Henley
$7,600
T15
DNP
MC
DNP
T52
Charley Hoffman
$7,500
W/D
MC
DNP
DNP
MC
Nick Watney
$7,500
T47
T14
DNP
2nd
MC
Ted Potter, Jr.
$7,400
1st
DNP
DNP
DNP
MC
Kevin Streelman
$7,300
6th
T14
T17
MC
DNP
Pat Perez
$7,300
T35
T14
T41
T4
T7
Chesson Hadley
$7,100
T35
DNP
MC
T10
T10
Jimmy Walker
$7,100
T8
T55
T11
T21
1st
Scott Stallings
$7,100
7th
T14
DNP
DNP
DNP
Steve Stricker
$7,100
T26
T23
MC
DNP
DNP
Vaughn Taylor
$7,000
T55
MC
1st
T10
DNP
Brian Gay
$6,800
T8
T66
T58
DNP
T45
Graeme McDowell
$6,800
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
T7
James Hahn
$6,800
T26
T58
MC
T29
MC
Patrick Rodgers
$6,700
T8
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

No comments: